Article(id=1314918662721598160, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1747843200000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-22, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1791430639199, onlineDateStr=2026-10-08, pubDate=1766160000000, pubDateStr=2025-12-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1791430639199, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1791430639199, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1791430639199, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1314918450573701162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='12', pageStart='6513', pageEnd='7104', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1766160000000', pubDateStr='2025-12-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1791430588620, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1791431575400, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1314922589479333965, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1314922589479333966, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=6935, endPage=6942, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1314918663002616529, articleId=1314918662721598160, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Characteristics and scenario analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles in Henan Province, columnId=1234106390126588740, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Carbon Emission Control, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the transportation sector of Henan Province, localized vehicle emission factors were calculated based on the COPERT model. A 3km × 3km gridded emission inventory was established using ArcGIS, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of vehicle-related GHG emissions were systematically analyzed. Vehicle ownership in Henan Province from 2025 to 2035 was forecast by combining the Gompertz function with the elasticity coefficient method, and emission trends under multiple policy scenarios were examined. The results showed that total vehicle GHG emissions increased from 140 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes during 2019 to 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%. Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for more than 98% of total emissions, while light-duty passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks were identified as the primary contributors. Urban road traffic was responsible for 78.8% of total emissions, and high-emission areas were concentrated in core cities such as Zhengzhou and Luoyang, presenting a spatial pattern of central clustering and peripheral diffusion. Under the baseline scenario, total GHG emissions were projected to reach 170 million tonnes by 2035. In contrast, when new energy vehicle promotion, green commuting, and accelerated retirement of aging vehicles were jointly implemented, total emissions were reduced to 70 million tonnes, representing a 58.1% decrease compared with the baseline. These findings provided quantitative evidence to support carbon management and the optimization of mitigation pathways in the transportation sector of Henan Province.

, authors=Quan-kang HAN1, Xue-xue JING1, Ya-lun CHENG1, Ling-ling WANG2, *, Yu-zhe ZHANG3, Ren-cheng ZHU1, **, Jing-nan HU3, authorsList=Quan-kang HAN, Xue-xue JING, Ya-lun CHENG, Ling-ling WANG, Yu-zhe ZHANG, Ren-cheng ZHU, Jing-nan HU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ling-ling WANG, Ren-cheng ZHU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918663266857682, articleId=1314918662721598160, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=河南省机动车温室气体排放特征及情景分析, columnId=1234106391661704058, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=碳排放控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为评估河南省交通领域温室气体排放水平及减排潜力,基于COPERT模型计算本地化机动车排放因子,利用ArcGIS软件构建3km × 3km网格化排放清单,系统剖析全省机动车温室气体排放的时空演变特征,并结合Gompertz函数与弹性系数法预测2025~2035年河南省机动车保有量,探究不同控制情景下的排放变化趋势.结果表明:2019~2023年,河南省机动车温室气体排放总量从1.4亿t增至1.6亿t,年均增长率为2.9%;其中,CO2占比超过98%,小型客车和重型货车是机动车碳排放的主要贡献者.城市道路系统排放占比达78.8%,排放高值区集中于郑州、洛阳等核心城市,呈现“中心集聚、外围扩散”的空间分布特征.基准情景下,2035年排放总量将升至1.7亿t;若协同推行新能源汽车推广、增加绿色通勤及老旧车辆淘汰三项措施,2035年排放量可降至0.7亿t,较基准情景下降58.1%.

, authors=韩全康1, 景雪雪1, 程亚伦1, 王玲玲2, *, 张宇哲3, 朱仁成1, **, 胡京南3, authorsList=韩全康, 景雪雪, 程亚伦, 王玲玲, 张宇哲, 朱仁成, 胡京南, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=王玲玲, 朱仁成, authorNote=

韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

, correspAuthorsNote=
* 责任作者,正高级工程师,
** 副教授,
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韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

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韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

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河南省机动车温室气体排放特征及情景分析
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韩全康 1 , 景雪雪 1 , 程亚伦 1 , 王玲玲 2, * , 张宇哲 3 , 朱仁成 1, ** , 胡京南 3
中国环境科学 | 碳排放控制 2025,45(12): 6935-6942
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中国环境科学 |碳排放控制 2025 , 45 (12) : 6935 -6942
河南省机动车温室气体排放特征及情景分析
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韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

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韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

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韩全康1 , 景雪雪1, 程亚伦1, 王玲玲2, * , 张宇哲3, 朱仁成1, ** , 胡京南3
作者信息
  • 1.郑州大学生态与环境学院,河南 郑州 450001
  • 2.河南省生态环境和安全监测中心,河南 郑州 450046
  • 3.中国环境科学研究院大气环境研究所,北京 100012
通讯作者:
* 责任作者,正高级工程师,
** 副教授,
作者简介:

韩全康(2000-),男,安徽亳州人,郑州大学在读硕士研究生,研究方向为大气环境污染与控制研究..

Characteristics and scenario analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles in Henan Province
Quan-kang HAN1 , Xue-xue JING1, Ya-lun CHENG1, Ling-ling WANG2, * , Yu-zhe ZHANG3, Ren-cheng ZHU1, ** , Jing-nan HU3
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Ecology and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • 2.Henan Ecological Environment Monitoring and Safety Center, Zhengzhou 450046, China
  • 3.Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
出版时间: 2025-12-20
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为评估河南省交通领域温室气体排放水平及减排潜力,基于COPERT模型计算本地化机动车排放因子,利用ArcGIS软件构建3km × 3km网格化排放清单,系统剖析全省机动车温室气体排放的时空演变特征,并结合Gompertz函数与弹性系数法预测2025~2035年河南省机动车保有量,探究不同控制情景下的排放变化趋势.结果表明:2019~2023年,河南省机动车温室气体排放总量从1.4亿t增至1.6亿t,年均增长率为2.9%;其中,CO2占比超过98%,小型客车和重型货车是机动车碳排放的主要贡献者.城市道路系统排放占比达78.8%,排放高值区集中于郑州、洛阳等核心城市,呈现“中心集聚、外围扩散”的空间分布特征.基准情景下,2035年排放总量将升至1.7亿t;若协同推行新能源汽车推广、增加绿色通勤及老旧车辆淘汰三项措施,2035年排放量可降至0.7亿t,较基准情景下降58.1%.

机动车排放  /  温室气体  /  情景分析  /  COPERT模型  /  管控措施

To evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the transportation sector of Henan Province, localized vehicle emission factors were calculated based on the COPERT model. A 3km × 3km gridded emission inventory was established using ArcGIS, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of vehicle-related GHG emissions were systematically analyzed. Vehicle ownership in Henan Province from 2025 to 2035 was forecast by combining the Gompertz function with the elasticity coefficient method, and emission trends under multiple policy scenarios were examined. The results showed that total vehicle GHG emissions increased from 140 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes during 2019 to 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%. Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for more than 98% of total emissions, while light-duty passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks were identified as the primary contributors. Urban road traffic was responsible for 78.8% of total emissions, and high-emission areas were concentrated in core cities such as Zhengzhou and Luoyang, presenting a spatial pattern of central clustering and peripheral diffusion. Under the baseline scenario, total GHG emissions were projected to reach 170 million tonnes by 2035. In contrast, when new energy vehicle promotion, green commuting, and accelerated retirement of aging vehicles were jointly implemented, total emissions were reduced to 70 million tonnes, representing a 58.1% decrease compared with the baseline. These findings provided quantitative evidence to support carbon management and the optimization of mitigation pathways in the transportation sector of Henan Province.

vehicle emissions  /  greenhouse gases  /  scenario analysis  /  COPERT model  /  control measures
韩全康, 景雪雪, 程亚伦, 王玲玲, 张宇哲, 朱仁成, 胡京南. 河南省机动车温室气体排放特征及情景分析. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (12) : 6935 -6942 .
Quan-kang HAN, Xue-xue JING, Ya-lun CHENG, Ling-ling WANG, Yu-zhe ZHANG, Ren-cheng ZHU, Jing-nan HU. Characteristics and scenario analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles in Henan Province[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (12) : 6935 -6942 .
  • 河南省大气污染成因科技支撑二期项目(2023DF1055)
  • 国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3713700)
  • 河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2025GGJS002)
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2025年第45卷第12期
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  • 接收时间:2025-05-22
  • 首发时间:2026-10-08
  • 出版时间:2025-12-20
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出版历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
基金
河南省大气污染成因科技支撑二期项目(2023DF1055)
国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3713700)
河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2025GGJS002)
作者信息
    1.郑州大学生态与环境学院,河南 郑州 450001
    2.河南省生态环境和安全监测中心,河南 郑州 450046
    3.中国环境科学研究院大气环境研究所,北京 100012

通讯作者:

* 责任作者,正高级工程师,
** 副教授,
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
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红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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