Article(id=1314918604198474011, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1748102400000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-25, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1791430625247, onlineDateStr=2026-10-08, pubDate=1766160000000, pubDateStr=2025-12-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1791430625247, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1791430625247, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1791430625247, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1314918450573701162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='12', pageStart='6513', pageEnd='7104', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1766160000000', pubDateStr='2025-12-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1791430588620, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1791431575400, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1314922589479333965, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1314922589479333966, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918450573701162, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=6793, endPage=6804, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1314918604408189212, articleId=1314918604198474011, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Research on phosphorus load prediction of Baiyangdian Basin based on coupling model, columnId=1234106388083954308, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Environmental Ecology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This study established an integrated SWAT-LSTM-MLP model to investigate phosphorus flux dynamics in the Baiyangdian Basin, China. The SWAT simulations revealed three key findings: (1) the average annual phosphorus input of the basin was 717.3t/a(57.6kg/km2·a) during 2019~2023, and the organic phosphorus (78.8%) was the main form, which showd an increasing trend in 2023; (2) the phosphorus flux showed significantly seasonal variation, the flood seasons (June-September) accounted for 85.57% of annual phosphorus loading (49.28kg/km2), which was significantly positive correlations (P<0.01) with precipitation, runoff, and sediment load; (3) for the spatial distribution, the phosphorous load of Fu-Cao-Pu River (79.3kg/km2, 32.09%) and Baigou Diversion Canal (66.6kg/km2, 26.96%) was higher than other region. Furthermore, in order to avoid the deficiency of the SWAT mobile in nonlinear varaitions, the LSTM-MLP hybrid model was applied to improve the accuracy of phosphorous load prediction. The model results showed that:(1) the LSTM-MLP hybrid model significantly improved prediction accuracy (NSE>0.9, RMSE<4kg/km2) compared to conventional LSTM (NSE>0.8, RMSE<7kg/km2), particularly in capturing peak values; (2) simulate analysis under different sediment reduction scenario demonstrated that the Baigou Diversion Canal under 60% sediment reduction scenario can reduce 35.29% of phosphorus load, which was the most effective regions among all subregions.

, authors=Yu-ang GAO1, Shuang-jiang LI1, Zi-shuai ZHENG1, Hao-jia WANG1, Xiao-ning LI1, Zi-qiong LI1, Zhao-nan DU1, Jian-sheng CUI1, Lu-lu ZHANG1, 2, *, authorsList=Yu-ang GAO, Shuang-jiang LI, Zi-shuai ZHENG, Hao-jia WANG, Xiao-ning LI, Zi-qiong LI, Zhao-nan DU, Jian-sheng CUI, Lu-lu ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Lu-lu ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918604655653149, articleId=1314918604198474011, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=基于耦合模型的白洋淀流域磷负荷削减模拟, columnId=1234106388268503686, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=环境生态, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

本研究选取白洋淀流域为研究区,通过构建SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)与LSTM-MLP(Long Short-Term Memory-Multilayer Perceptron)混合模型,模拟白洋淀流域磷通量时空分异规律,识别白洋淀流域磷通量的主要影响因素,预测不同泥沙削减情景下磷通量削减效果.总体而言,SWAT模型模拟结果表明:(1)2019~2023年白洋淀流域年均磷输入量为717.3t/a,单位面积磷负荷为57.6kg/(km2·a),其中有机磷占比78.8%,且磷通量呈逐年上升趋势,2023年尤为显著;(2)磷通量呈显著季节性变化,汛期(6~9月)负荷占全年磷通量的85.57%(49.28kg/km2),其与降雨量、径流量及泥沙量呈显著正相关(P<0.01);(3)就不同区域而言,府-漕-瀑河区域(79.3kg/km2)和白沟引河区域(66.6kg/km2)磷负荷最高,其贡献率分别为32.09%和26.96%.此外,为弥补SWAT模型对非线性时序变化的不足,运用LSTM-MLP混合模型提升磷负荷预测精度,预测结果表明:(1)LSTM-MLP混合模型的NSE>0.9、RMSE<4kg/km2,均优于传统LSTM模型(NSE>0.8、RMSE<7kg/km2),能更精确捕捉峰值变化;(2)在模拟不同泥沙削减情景中,白沟引河区域在削减60%泥沙量的情况下,TP负荷削减率为35.29%,显著优于其他区域.

, authors=高宇昂1, 李双江1, 郑子帅1, 王浩加1, 李晓宁1, 李子琼1, 杜兆楠1, 崔建升1, 张璐璐1, 2, *, authorsList=高宇昂, 李双江, 郑子帅, 王浩加, 李晓宁, 李子琼, 杜兆楠, 崔建升, 张璐璐, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=张璐璐, authorNote=

高宇昂(2001-),男,河北唐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流域污染物模型模拟..

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* 责任作者,副教授,
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高宇昂(2001-),男,河北唐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流域污染物模型模拟..

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高宇昂(2001-),男,河北唐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流域污染物模型模拟..

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基于耦合模型的白洋淀流域磷负荷削减模拟
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高宇昂 1 , 李双江 1 , 郑子帅 1 , 王浩加 1 , 李晓宁 1 , 李子琼 1 , 杜兆楠 1 , 崔建升 1 , 张璐璐 1, 2, *
中国环境科学 | 环境生态 2025,45(12): 6793-6804
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中国环境科学 |环境生态 2025 , 45 (12) : 6793 -6804
基于耦合模型的白洋淀流域磷负荷削减模拟
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高宇昂1 , 李双江1, 郑子帅1, 王浩加1, 李晓宁1, 李子琼1, 杜兆楠1, 崔建升1, 张璐璐1, 2, *
作者信息
  • 1.河北科技大学环境科学与工程学院,河北 石家庄 050000
  • 2.河北省污染防治生物技术重点实验室,河北 石家庄 050000
通讯作者:
* 责任作者,副教授,
作者简介:

高宇昂(2001-),男,河北唐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流域污染物模型模拟..

Research on phosphorus load prediction of Baiyangdian Basin based on coupling model
Yu-ang GAO1 , Shuang-jiang LI1, Zi-shuai ZHENG1, Hao-jia WANG1, Xiao-ning LI1, Zi-qiong LI1, Zhao-nan DU1, Jian-sheng CUI1, Lu-lu ZHANG1, 2, *
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Environment Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Science the Technology, Shijiazhuang 050000, China
  • 2.Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Pollution Prevention Biotechnology, Shijiazhuang 050000, China
出版时间: 2025-12-20
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本研究选取白洋淀流域为研究区,通过构建SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)与LSTM-MLP(Long Short-Term Memory-Multilayer Perceptron)混合模型,模拟白洋淀流域磷通量时空分异规律,识别白洋淀流域磷通量的主要影响因素,预测不同泥沙削减情景下磷通量削减效果.总体而言,SWAT模型模拟结果表明:(1)2019~2023年白洋淀流域年均磷输入量为717.3t/a,单位面积磷负荷为57.6kg/(km2·a),其中有机磷占比78.8%,且磷通量呈逐年上升趋势,2023年尤为显著;(2)磷通量呈显著季节性变化,汛期(6~9月)负荷占全年磷通量的85.57%(49.28kg/km2),其与降雨量、径流量及泥沙量呈显著正相关(P<0.01);(3)就不同区域而言,府-漕-瀑河区域(79.3kg/km2)和白沟引河区域(66.6kg/km2)磷负荷最高,其贡献率分别为32.09%和26.96%.此外,为弥补SWAT模型对非线性时序变化的不足,运用LSTM-MLP混合模型提升磷负荷预测精度,预测结果表明:(1)LSTM-MLP混合模型的NSE>0.9、RMSE<4kg/km2,均优于传统LSTM模型(NSE>0.8、RMSE<7kg/km2),能更精确捕捉峰值变化;(2)在模拟不同泥沙削减情景中,白沟引河区域在削减60%泥沙量的情况下,TP负荷削减率为35.29%,显著优于其他区域.

SWAT模型  /  机器学习  /  磷通量  /  泥沙削减  /  白洋淀流域

This study established an integrated SWAT-LSTM-MLP model to investigate phosphorus flux dynamics in the Baiyangdian Basin, China. The SWAT simulations revealed three key findings: (1) the average annual phosphorus input of the basin was 717.3t/a(57.6kg/km2·a) during 2019~2023, and the organic phosphorus (78.8%) was the main form, which showd an increasing trend in 2023; (2) the phosphorus flux showed significantly seasonal variation, the flood seasons (June-September) accounted for 85.57% of annual phosphorus loading (49.28kg/km2), which was significantly positive correlations (P<0.01) with precipitation, runoff, and sediment load; (3) for the spatial distribution, the phosphorous load of Fu-Cao-Pu River (79.3kg/km2, 32.09%) and Baigou Diversion Canal (66.6kg/km2, 26.96%) was higher than other region. Furthermore, in order to avoid the deficiency of the SWAT mobile in nonlinear varaitions, the LSTM-MLP hybrid model was applied to improve the accuracy of phosphorous load prediction. The model results showed that:(1) the LSTM-MLP hybrid model significantly improved prediction accuracy (NSE>0.9, RMSE<4kg/km2) compared to conventional LSTM (NSE>0.8, RMSE<7kg/km2), particularly in capturing peak values; (2) simulate analysis under different sediment reduction scenario demonstrated that the Baigou Diversion Canal under 60% sediment reduction scenario can reduce 35.29% of phosphorus load, which was the most effective regions among all subregions.

SWAT model  /  machine learning  /  phosphorus flux  /  sediment reduction  /  Baiyangdian Basin
高宇昂, 李双江, 郑子帅, 王浩加, 李晓宁, 李子琼, 杜兆楠, 崔建升, 张璐璐. 基于耦合模型的白洋淀流域磷负荷削减模拟. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (12) : 6793 -6804 .
Yu-ang GAO, Shuang-jiang LI, Zi-shuai ZHENG, Hao-jia WANG, Xiao-ning LI, Zi-qiong LI, Zhao-nan DU, Jian-sheng CUI, Lu-lu ZHANG. Research on phosphorus load prediction of Baiyangdian Basin based on coupling model[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (12) : 6793 -6804 .
  • 河北省自然科学基金项目(D20192081152)
  • 河北省教育厅重点项目(ZD2021046)
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  • 接收时间:2025-05-25
  • 首发时间:2026-10-08
  • 出版时间:2025-12-20
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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-25
基金
河北省自然科学基金项目(D20192081152)
河北省教育厅重点项目(ZD2021046)
作者信息
    1.河北科技大学环境科学与工程学院,河北 石家庄 050000
    2.河北省污染防治生物技术重点实验室,河北 石家庄 050000

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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