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The composite quasi-natural experiment empowered by the "dual-carbon linkage" was reconstructed based on carbon emission trading and low-carbon city construction. Using panel data from 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2022, a double machine learning model was employed to examine the impact of the "dual-carbon linkage" on urban green transformation. It was found that the "dual-carbon linkage" had a significant positive effect on both urban economic transformation performance and green innovation performance, with coefficients of 0.027 and 0.083, respectively, significant at the 1% statistical level. This indicated that the "dual-carbon linkage" contributed to comprehensively accelerating urban green transformation and demonstrated a more pronounced empowering effect compared to single institutional innovations. Mechanism analysis based on the "government-market-society" three-dimensional framework revealed that the "dual-carbon linkage" indirectly facilitated urban green transformation through government environmental improvement effects by reducing environmental pollution and enhancing environmental enforcement (with coefficients of -0.727 and 0.721, respectively), market resource allocation effects by promoting industrial upgrading and accelerating economic agglomeration (with coefficients of 0.134 and 0.332, respectively), and social participation and governance effects by raising public environmental awareness and optimizing public service environments (with coefficients of 0.487 and 0.052, respectively). Heterogeneity analysis showed that the incentivizing effects of the "dual-carbon linkage" on green transformation were more pronounced in cities with lower bureaucratic redundancy (coefficients of 0.110 and 0.147, respectively), greater financial technology support (coefficients of 0.039 and 0.067, respectively), higher market integration (coefficients of 0.057 and 0.102, respectively), better sci-tech business environments (coefficients of 0.121 and 0.138, respectively), as well as in cities located in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (coefficients of 0.041 and 0.069, respectively) and eastern regions (coefficients of 0.063 and 0.046, respectively). This study provided empirical evidence and decision-making insights for local governments to coordinate and unleash the synergistic force of "dual carbon" institutional innovations and accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

, authors=Xian-feng HAN^*, Xin WEI, authorsList=Xian-feng HAN, Xin WEI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xian-feng HAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918521222561976, articleId=1314918520777965750, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=“双碳联动”助力城市绿色转型:作用机制与效应评估, columnId=1234106391661704058, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=碳排放控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

基于碳排放权交易和低碳城市建设重构“双碳联动”赋能的复合准自然实验,并基于中国2011~2022年280个地级市面板数据,应用双重机器学习模型考察了“双碳联动”对城市绿色转型的影响.研究发现:“双碳联动”对城市经济转型绩效和绿色创新绩效均具有显著的积极作用,系数分别为0.027和0.083,在1%的统计水平显著,意味着“双碳联动”有助于全面加快城市绿色转型,且其能发挥比单一制度创新更为明显的赋能效果;基于“政府-市场-社会”三维框架的机制探究表明,“双碳联动”可通过降低环境污染和增强环保执法的政府环境改善效应（系数分别为-0.727和0.721）、促进产业升级和加速经济聚集的市场资源配置效应（系数分别为0.134和0.332）,以及提高公众环保意识和优化公共服务环境的社会参与治理效应（系数分别为0.487和0.052）为城市绿色转型提供间接助力;异质性分析表明,在官僚组织冗余程度较低（系数分别为0.110和0.147）、财政科技支持力度较大（系数分别为0.039和0.067）、市场一体化程度较高（系数分别为0.057和0.102）、科技营商环境较好（系数分别为0.121和0.138）,以及处于长江经济带（系数分别为0.041和0.069）和东部城市中（系数分别为0.063和0.046）,“双碳联动”赋能的绿色转型激励效果更为明显.该研究为“十五五”时期地方政府统筹释放“双碳”制度创新合力,加快推动经济社会全面绿色转型提供了经验证据和决策启示.

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韩先锋（1984-），男，陕西商洛人，教授，博士，主要从事环境评估、数字创新研究．发表论文180余篇．hanxianfeng2008@163.com.

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韩先锋（1984-），男，陕西商洛人，教授，博士，主要从事环境评估、数字创新研究．发表论文180余篇．hanxianfeng2008@163.com.

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