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This study evaluates the carbon mitigation potential of municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategies in Chengdu by integrating multi-scenario simulations with a refined classification-based accounting framework. The existing system faces compounded challenges, including inadequate source separation, limited source reduction, low resource recovery rates, and a high-emission treatment structure dominated by landfilling and energy-intensive technologies. The results demonstrate that different strategies prevail at distinct stages of the transition. In the short term (2020~2027), a full-incineration strategy reduces net emissions from 4169 to 1314.7kt CO₂-eq, accounting for 95.4% of cumulative reductions. In the midterm (2028~2035), source reduction increasingly alleviates downstream treatment pressure. In the long term (post-2035), system optimization—through improved incineration performance and sludge co-treatment—enhances synergies and carbon sink effects. Among individual strategies, enhanced resource utilization (S4) yields the most immediate mitigation effect, whereas source reduction (S2) generates substantial long-term cumulative benefits. The integrated strategy (S7) outperforms all single-strategy options across most waste categories, underscoring the need for full-chain, coordinated governance. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of differentiated, time-phased, and waste-type-specific policy interventions to enable a low-carbon transition in urban MSW systems.

, authors=Jing-yi ZHANG, Jin-hui LI, Ni-ni ZHANG, Li-li LIU^*, authorsList=Jing-yi ZHANG, Jin-hui LI, Ni-ni ZHANG, Li-li LIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Li-li LIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918480659440038, articleId=1314918478398710180, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=生活源固体废物处理减碳路径分析——以成都市为例, columnId=1234106391661704058, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=碳排放控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

本研究基于成都市生活源固废处理现状，模拟量化不同策略下的碳减排潜力，提出协同减碳的路径优化机制．当前成都市固废处理面临前端分类效能低、源头减量缺位，中端资（能）源化利用率不足，后端高能耗工艺推高系统碳排放的问题．研究设置八大情景模拟不同策略协同减碳效果：资源化率提升（S4）在短期内减排效果最显著，源头减量（S2）具备长期“滚雪球”效应，综合路径（S7）在多数固废类型中表现最优，验证“全链条协同治理”的系统优势．不同策略在不同时期主导减排：短期（2020~2027年），“全量焚烧”策略降低碳排放量从4169ktCO₂-eq降至1314.7ktCO₂-eq，贡献同期 95.4%的减排量；中期（2028~2035年）源头减量策略持续发力，实现碳排放稳步下降；长期（2035年后）通过优化焚烧工艺、污泥协同处理和高值化资源利用，实现深度脱碳和碳汇增效．此外，研究还识别了不同固废类型的策略敏感性差异，提出分类精准施策的城市固废低碳转型路径建议．

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张婧怡（2001-），女，广东广州人，硕士研究生，主要从事固体废物管理与资源化研究．z-jy22@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn.

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张婧怡（2001-），女，广东广州人，硕士研究生，主要从事固体废物管理与资源化研究．z-jy22@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn.

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