Article(id=1314918359653773496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918356222829028, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741708800000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-12, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1791430566942, onlineDateStr=2026-10-08, pubDate=1763568000000, pubDateStr=2025-11-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1791430566942, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1791430566942, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1791430566942, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1314918356222829028, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='11', pageStart='5921', pageEnd='6512', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1763568000000', pubDateStr='2025-11-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1791430566125, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1791431596967, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1314922679942078535, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918356222829028, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1314922679942078536, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918356222829028, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=5931, endPage=5940, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1314918359838322873, articleId=1314918359653773496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Projection of high temperature and ozone changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under climate change scenarios, columnId=1234106386020365051, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Air Pollution Control, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to investigate the impact of future climate change on high temperatures and ozone pollution, summer temperatures and O₃ concentrations for different years in the 21st century were simulated using downscaling based on the CMIP6-WRF/Chem model. The results of the study indicated that, in comparison with 2014, the rate of temperature increased in typical cities within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would slow down by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario with peak warming rates of 0.29℃/decade, 0.46℃/decade, and 0.33℃/decade for Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, warming accelerated markedly, with rates of 0.63℃/decade, 0.80℃/decade, and 0.72℃/decade for the three cities. Under both scenarios, daily average O₃ concentrations and MDA8O₃ concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang all exhibited increasing trends, with growth rates of 1.1μg/(m³·decade), 1.5μg/(m³·decade) and 0.9μg/(m³·decade), and 1.2μg/(m³·decade), 1.3μg/(m³·decade) and 1.1 μg/(m³·decade), respectively. However, the number of days exceeding O₃ standards exhibited differing patterns, potentially linked to variations in O₃ concentrations between hot and non-hot days. Non-hot-day O₃ concentrations exhibited an increasing trend across all cities, with the largest increment occurring in Beijing under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2035, rising by 12.9μg/m³. Conversely, O₃ concentrations decreased to varying degrees on high-temperature days, with the largest reduction occurring in Tianjin under the SSP2-4.5 scenario by 2100, decreasing by 13.9μg/m³. Under all scenarios, Tianjin's temperature penalty factor was lower than in 2014, indicating a consistent high-temperature suppression effect on O₃ across scenarios and years. The influence of air temperature on O₃ is non-linear, and relative humidity may modulate the relationship between high temperatures and O₃ concentrations.

, authors=Ying-xiao TANG¹, Qing YAO^{1, *}, Jing WANG², Zi-ying CAI¹, Su-qin HAN¹, authorsList=Ying-xiao TANG, Qing YAO, Jing WANG, Zi-ying CAI, Su-qin HAN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Qing YAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918360165478586, articleId=1314918359653773496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=气候变化情景下京津冀区域高温和臭氧变化预估, columnId=1234106388364981004, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=大气污染与控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为探究未来气候变化对高温天气和O₃污染的影响,基于CMIP6-WRF/Chem模式降尺度,模拟21世纪不同年份夏季温度和O₃浓度.结果显示,相较于2014年, SSP2-4.5情景下京津冀典型城市2100年气温升高放缓,北京、天津和石家庄最高温升温速率分别为0.29℃/10a、0.46℃/10a和0.33℃/10a,而SSP5-8.5情景下升温则明显加剧3座城市升温速率分别为0.63℃/10a、0.80℃/10a和0.72℃/10a. 两种情景下北京、天津和石家庄日均O₃浓度和MDA8O₃浓度均呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为1.1μg/（m³·10a）、1.5μg/（m³·10a）和0.9μg/（m³·10a）以及1.2μg/（m³·10a）、1.3μg/（m³·10a）和1.1μg/（m³·10a）,但O₃超标天数表现不同,可能与高温天和非高温天O₃浓度的变化差异有关.各城市非高温天O₃浓度均呈增加趋势,最大增量发生在SSP5-8.5情景下2035年的北京,增加12.9μg/m³.高温天O₃浓度则不同程度减少,最大减少发生在SSP2-4.5情景下2100年的天津,减少13.9μg/m³.不同情景下天津市温度惩罚因子均低于2014年,不同情景和年份均存在高温对O₃的抑制作用.气温对O₃的影响并非线性,相对湿度可能影响高温与O₃浓度的关系.

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唐颖潇（1990-），男，福建宁德人，高级工程师，博士，主要从事大气环境与健康气象方面的科研工作.发表论文20余篇．tangyingx@163.com.

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唐颖潇（1990-），男，福建宁德人，高级工程师，博士，主要从事大气环境与健康气象方面的科研工作.发表论文20余篇．tangyingx@163.com.

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