Article(id=1314918340569690118, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918247384834796, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741536000000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1791430562393, onlineDateStr=2026-10-08, pubDate=1760889600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1791430562393, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1791430562393, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1791430562393, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1314918247384834796, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='10', pageStart='5329', pageEnd='5920', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1760889600000', pubDateStr='2025-10-20', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1791430540175, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1791431660009, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1314922944367784036, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918247384834796, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1314922944367784037, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1314918247384834796, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=5885, endPage=5893, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1314918340829736967, articleId=1314918340569690118, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Driving factors analysis and scenario prediction of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province based on machine learning, columnId=1234106390126588740, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Carbon Emission Control, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This study analyzed agricultural carbon emissions in different cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2021 by focusing on three indicator categories: land management, grain cultivation, and livestock farming. The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trends and patterns of agricultural carbon emissions was conducted using the local Moran I index. Additionally, a random forest model was utilized to determine the primary influencing factors and forecast agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province across baseline, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios. The study findings indicated the following key points: agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province exhibited a fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2021, reaching a peak of 58.4952million tons in 2006 before declining. By 2021, emissions had decreased by 40.60% compared to the peak year. The spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emissions across cities in the province followed a distinct pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. The primary driving factors positively influencing agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province were the land plowing area, rural population, administrative area, and total agricultural machinery power. Conversely, the urbanization rate had a negative impact on emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province peaked in 2006 and are projected to continue decreasing from 2022 to 2030 under three scenarios. The anticipated reductions range from 22.4155~24.7073 million tons, 22.4567~24.8222 million tons, and 22.401~24.5974 million tons, respectively, compared to the peak level. These findings offer valuable insights for developing future strategies for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in different cities within Henan Province, thereby contributing to the attainment of the "dual carbon" objectives.

, authors=Xin-jie SHI1, 2, 3, Xue-qin TAN1, Ru ZHOU1, Jin-ran XIONG4, Ling LI1, 2, Dong-hao LI1, 2, *, authorsList=Xin-jie SHI, Xue-qin TAN, Ru ZHOU, Jin-ran XIONG, Ling LI, Dong-hao LI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Dong-hao LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1314918341198835720, articleId=1314918340569690118, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=基于机器学习的河南省农业碳排放驱动因素分析和情景预测, columnId=1234106391661704058, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=碳排放控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

选取土地管理、粮食种植、畜牧养殖3类指标对2000~2021年河南省各地市农业碳排放进行了测算,结合局部莫兰指数分析了各地市农业碳排放的时空演变趋势和格局,最后采用随机森林模型识别了主要驱动因素并预测了基准、低碳、高碳情景下的河南省农业碳排放量.结果表明:2000~2021年,河南省农业碳排放先上升后下降,在2006年达到峰值5849.52万t,2021年较2006年下降40.60%;各地市农业碳排放分布不均,整体呈现“东南高、西北低”的特征.土地翻耕面积、农村人口数量、行政区面积以及农业机械总动力是影响河南省农业碳排放最主要的正向驱动因素,城镇化率为负向驱动因素.河南省农业碳排放已于2006年达峰值,在3种情景下,2022~2030年河南省农业碳排放均持续下降,与达峰状态相比下降范围分别为2241.55~2470.73万t,2245.67~2482.22万t,2240.10~2459.74万t.研究结果可以为河南省各地市未来农业碳减排路径提供依据,确保“双碳”目标达成.

, authors=史新杰1, 2, 3, 谭雪勤1, 周茹1, 熊晋冉4, 李玲1, 2, 李栋浩1, 2, *, authorsList=史新杰, 谭雪勤, 周茹, 熊晋冉, 李玲, 李栋浩, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李栋浩, authorNote=

史新杰(1990-),男,河南焦作人,讲师,博士,主要从事农业水土绿色高效研究.发表论文10篇..

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史新杰(1990-),男,河南焦作人,讲师,博士,主要从事农业水土绿色高效研究.发表论文10篇..

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史新杰(1990-),男,河南焦作人,讲师,博士,主要从事农业水土绿色高效研究.发表论文10篇..

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基于机器学习的河南省农业碳排放驱动因素分析和情景预测
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史新杰 1, 2, 3 , 谭雪勤 1 , 周茹 1 , 熊晋冉 4 , 李玲 1, 2 , 李栋浩 1, 2, *
中国环境科学 | 碳排放控制 2025,45(10): 5885-5893
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中国环境科学 |碳排放控制 2025 , 45 (10) : 5885 -5893
基于机器学习的河南省农业碳排放驱动因素分析和情景预测
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史新杰1, 2, 3 , 谭雪勤1, 周茹1, 熊晋冉4, 李玲1, 2, 李栋浩1, 2, *
作者信息
  • 1.河南农业大学资源与环境学院,河南 郑州 450046
  • 2.河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心,河南 郑州 450046
  • 3.河南农业大学作物学博士后科研流动站 河南 郑州 450046
  • 4.中国科学技术大学环境科学与工程系,安徽 合肥 230022
通讯作者:
* 责任作者,讲师,
作者简介:

史新杰(1990-),男,河南焦作人,讲师,博士,主要从事农业水土绿色高效研究.发表论文10篇..

Driving factors analysis and scenario prediction of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province based on machine learning
Xin-jie SHI1, 2, 3 , Xue-qin TAN1, Ru ZHOU1, Jin-ran XIONG4, Ling LI1, 2, Dong-hao LI1, 2, *
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
  • 2.Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Zhengzhou 450046, China
  • 3.Postdoctoral station of Crop Science of Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
  • 4.Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230022, China
出版时间: 2025-10-20
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选取土地管理、粮食种植、畜牧养殖3类指标对2000~2021年河南省各地市农业碳排放进行了测算,结合局部莫兰指数分析了各地市农业碳排放的时空演变趋势和格局,最后采用随机森林模型识别了主要驱动因素并预测了基准、低碳、高碳情景下的河南省农业碳排放量.结果表明:2000~2021年,河南省农业碳排放先上升后下降,在2006年达到峰值5849.52万t,2021年较2006年下降40.60%;各地市农业碳排放分布不均,整体呈现“东南高、西北低”的特征.土地翻耕面积、农村人口数量、行政区面积以及农业机械总动力是影响河南省农业碳排放最主要的正向驱动因素,城镇化率为负向驱动因素.河南省农业碳排放已于2006年达峰值,在3种情景下,2022~2030年河南省农业碳排放均持续下降,与达峰状态相比下降范围分别为2241.55~2470.73万t,2245.67~2482.22万t,2240.10~2459.74万t.研究结果可以为河南省各地市未来农业碳减排路径提供依据,确保“双碳”目标达成.

农业碳排放  /  随机森林  /  机器学习  /  河南省

This study analyzed agricultural carbon emissions in different cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2021 by focusing on three indicator categories: land management, grain cultivation, and livestock farming. The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trends and patterns of agricultural carbon emissions was conducted using the local Moran I index. Additionally, a random forest model was utilized to determine the primary influencing factors and forecast agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province across baseline, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios. The study findings indicated the following key points: agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province exhibited a fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2021, reaching a peak of 58.4952million tons in 2006 before declining. By 2021, emissions had decreased by 40.60% compared to the peak year. The spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emissions across cities in the province followed a distinct pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. The primary driving factors positively influencing agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province were the land plowing area, rural population, administrative area, and total agricultural machinery power. Conversely, the urbanization rate had a negative impact on emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province peaked in 2006 and are projected to continue decreasing from 2022 to 2030 under three scenarios. The anticipated reductions range from 22.4155~24.7073 million tons, 22.4567~24.8222 million tons, and 22.401~24.5974 million tons, respectively, compared to the peak level. These findings offer valuable insights for developing future strategies for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in different cities within Henan Province, thereby contributing to the attainment of the "dual carbon" objectives.

agricultural carbon emissions  /  random forest  /  machine learning  /  Henan province
史新杰, 谭雪勤, 周茹, 熊晋冉, 李玲, 李栋浩. 基于机器学习的河南省农业碳排放驱动因素分析和情景预测. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (10) : 5885 -5893 .
Xin-jie SHI, Xue-qin TAN, Ru ZHOU, Jin-ran XIONG, Ling LI, Dong-hao LI. Driving factors analysis and scenario prediction of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province based on machine learning[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (10) : 5885 -5893 .
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900)
  • 河南省科技开发联合基金资助项目(重点项目)(225200810045)
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2025年第45卷第10期
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  • 接收时间:2025-03-10
  • 首发时间:2026-10-08
  • 出版时间:2025-10-20
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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-10
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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900)
河南省科技开发联合基金资助项目(重点项目)(225200810045)
作者信息
    1.河南农业大学资源与环境学院,河南 郑州 450046
    2.河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心,河南 郑州 450046
    3.河南农业大学作物学博士后科研流动站 河南 郑州 450046
    4.中国科学技术大学环境科学与工程系,安徽 合肥 230022

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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