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This paper takes the period from 2005 to 2022 as the examination period, and discusses the dynamic evolution law and spatial correlation characteristics of China's animal husbandry on the basis of re-measuring its carbon emissions and analyzing its current characteristics. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions from China's animal husbandry in the study period has fluctuated, but the overall trend is declining, the carbon emission intensity has been in a continuous downward trend, only the inter-annual rate of decline is different, cattle and hog feeding is the key driver of carbon emissions from the animal husbandry. In 2022, the carbon emissions of the animal husbandry in each province and region were significantly different, and the top 10regions were mainly identified as core livestock production areas or grain production areas. The carbon emissions intensity of the animal husbandry in the interprovincial area was characterized by a distribution pattern of 'high in the northwest and low in the southeast'. The 30 provinces and regions were categorized into four types, such as those driven by cattle feeding and those driven by hog feeding, based on the composition of the carbon emissions of the animal husbandry in each region. During the study period, the carbon emission intensity of the animal husbandry as a whole, as well as that of cattle and sheep rearing, showed an obvious downward trend and the inter-provincial gap narrowed significantly; while the carbon emission intensity of hog rearing also declined, but the inter-provincial gap widened significantly. During the study period, the carbon emission intensity of China's animal husbandry has always had a significant spatial dependence, with low-low agglomeration as the main focus and high-high agglomeration as the secondary focus, and showing the characteristic of “the low is always low and the high is always high”.

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以2005~2022年作为考察期,在对中国畜牧业碳排放进行重新测算并分析现状特征的基础上,围绕其动态演进规律及空间关联性特点进行了探讨.结果显示:考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放总量虽存在增减起伏但总体表现出下降趋势,碳排放强度一直处于持续下降态势仅年际降速有所区别,牛和生猪饲养是导致畜牧业碳排放的关键动因;2022年各省区畜牧业碳排放量差异明显,排在前10位的地区主要为核心畜牧业产区或粮食主产区,省际畜牧业碳排放强度总体表现出“西北高、东南低”的分布格局,根据各地区畜牧业碳排放的构成情况可将30个省区划分为牛饲养驱动型、生猪饲养驱动型等4种类型;考察期内畜牧业整体以及牛、羊饲养碳排放强度均表现出了明显下降趋势且省际差距大幅缩小;而生猪饲养碳排放强度虽也出现下降但其省际差距却明显扩大.考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度始终存在显著的空间依赖性,且以低-低集聚为主、高-高集聚为辅,同时呈现出“低者恒低、高者恒高”的特征.

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* 责任作者,副教授,
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田云(1986-),男,湖北长阳人,中南财经政法大学副教授,主要研究方向为碳达峰与碳中和、低碳经济与低碳农业.发表论文100余篇..

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田云(1986-),男,湖北长阳人,中南财经政法大学副教授,主要研究方向为碳达峰与碳中和、低碳经济与低碳农业.发表论文100余篇..

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田云(1986-),男,湖北长阳人,中南财经政法大学副教授,主要研究方向为碳达峰与碳中和、低碳经济与低碳农业.发表论文100余篇..

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Rural Finance Research2023,(7):23-37., articleTitle=Analysis on the coupling and coordinated development of county-level digital inclusive finance and digital rural construction and its influencing factors, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241116650506875126, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, awardId=23BGL189, language=CN, fundingSource=国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BGL189), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241116645452738609, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241116645456932914, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, companyId=1241116645452738609, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=WTO and Hubei Development Research Center, School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241116645465321522, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, companyId=1241116645452738609, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,WTO与湖北发展研究中心,湖北 武汉 430073)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241116647407284361, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Kernel density distribution of carbon intensity of animal husbandry and cattle, sheep and pig feeding, figureFileSmall=5hdFzzEl6Xbmtxs8D6sRLw==, figureFileBig=hL0nAMV4S2yB1yOThTnibw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241116647637971090, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=CN, label=图1, caption=畜牧业及牛、羊、生猪饲养碳排放强度核密度分布, figureFileSmall=5hdFzzEl6Xbmtxs8D6sRLw==, figureFileBig=hL0nAMV4S2yB1yOThTnibw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241116649273749673, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Total amount, structure and intensity of animal husbandry carbon emission in China from 2005 to 2022

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份牛饲养羊饲养生猪饲养其他畜禽饲养能源利用总量(万t)强度(t/万元)
数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)
200523052.4848.268002.1916.7510244.7121.452428.055.084043.248.4647770.673.60
200623011.5047.978044.2316.7710547.3921.992408.775.023959.808.2547971.693.44
200720001.3047.427053.9616.728758.4220.772281.015.414083.529.6842178.212.96
200817422.1944.216055.1615.379457.4824.002288.045.814185.8710.6239408.742.59
200917725.9044.346046.1515.1310003.5025.032294.765.743903.049.7639973.352.49
201017686.3244.006048.7415.0510336.4525.712311.975.753816.179.4940199.652.40
201117341.8342.716334.4315.6010256.2125.262337.595.764337.6610.6840607.722.39
201217112.6141.506396.4515.5110817.1326.232389.465.794518.2610.9641233.912.31
201317112.9141.876189.9415.1511091.1127.142321.655.684155.5010.1740871.112.24
201417282.3241.696403.4315.4511393.9627.482252.435.434124.559.9541456.692.21
201517546.3842.116645.1015.9510977.5926.352265.475.444230.6710.1541665.212.19
201617663.1842.536624.2115.9510617.4025.572228.665.374394.9210.5841528.372.18
201716045.7940.196569.7716.4510880.8827.252039.805.114391.4311.0039927.672.05
201814450.1539.036568.7717.7410753.9829.051839.174.973409.299.2137021.361.87
201914470.7041.306560.7218.728434.9924.072004.475.723568.2910.1835039.171.81
202014938.3841.766678.4218.678168.8022.832100.235.873888.8910.8735774.721.81
202115431.1740.156902.1617.9610404.6927.072096.865.463596.829.3638431.701.68
202215937.9240.347127.4018.0410848.1527.462122.505.373470.888.7939506.851.66
累计增幅(%)-30.86-10.935.89-12.58-14.16-17.30-53.89
平均增速(%)-2.15-0.680.34-0.79-0.89-1.11-4.45
), ArticleFig(id=1241116649382801584, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2005~2022年中国畜牧业碳排放总量、结构及强度

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份牛饲养羊饲养生猪饲养其他畜禽饲养能源利用总量(万t)强度(t/万元)
数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)
200523052.4848.268002.1916.7510244.7121.452428.055.084043.248.4647770.673.60
200623011.5047.978044.2316.7710547.3921.992408.775.023959.808.2547971.693.44
200720001.3047.427053.9616.728758.4220.772281.015.414083.529.6842178.212.96
200817422.1944.216055.1615.379457.4824.002288.045.814185.8710.6239408.742.59
200917725.9044.346046.1515.1310003.5025.032294.765.743903.049.7639973.352.49
201017686.3244.006048.7415.0510336.4525.712311.975.753816.179.4940199.652.40
201117341.8342.716334.4315.6010256.2125.262337.595.764337.6610.6840607.722.39
201217112.6141.506396.4515.5110817.1326.232389.465.794518.2610.9641233.912.31
201317112.9141.876189.9415.1511091.1127.142321.655.684155.5010.1740871.112.24
201417282.3241.696403.4315.4511393.9627.482252.435.434124.559.9541456.692.21
201517546.3842.116645.1015.9510977.5926.352265.475.444230.6710.1541665.212.19
201617663.1842.536624.2115.9510617.4025.572228.665.374394.9210.5841528.372.18
201716045.7940.196569.7716.4510880.8827.252039.805.114391.4311.0039927.672.05
201814450.1539.036568.7717.7410753.9829.051839.174.973409.299.2137021.361.87
201914470.7041.306560.7218.728434.9924.072004.475.723568.2910.1835039.171.81
202014938.3841.766678.4218.678168.8022.832100.235.873888.8910.8735774.721.81
202115431.1740.156902.1617.9610404.6927.072096.865.463596.829.3638431.701.68
202215937.9240.347127.4018.0410848.1527.462122.505.373470.888.7939506.851.66
累计增幅(%)-30.86-10.935.89-12.58-14.16-17.30-53.89
平均增速(%)-2.15-0.680.34-0.79-0.89-1.11-4.45
), ArticleFig(id=1241116649517019321, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Total amount and intensity of animal husbandry carbon emission in 30 provinces of China

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省区市2005年2022年变动率Ⅰ(%)变动率Ⅱ(%)
总量(万t)排名强度(t/万元)排名总量(万t)排名强度(t/万元)排名
北京241.29281.782931.69300.9826-86.87-44.62
天津230.66292.2526143.61281.2620-37.74-43.85
河北3049.5942.71221783.7190.8929-41.51-67.34
山西942.17226.347826.68202.438-12.26-61.61
内蒙古2794.5556.2983274.5313.78517.18-39.83
辽宁1519.13132.39231417.54121.2719-6.69-46.92
吉林1465.58163.13161233.09161.4816-15.86-52.73
黑龙江1828.24113.96101885.5881.72113.14-56.56
上海113.22302.092747.88292.239-57.716.85
江苏1038.48201.7330686.32220.8929-33.91-48.68
浙江558.19251.9528289.89261.4117-48.07-28.00
安徽1506.85142.7221996.69190.9128-33.86-66.53
福建637.21242.3025496.82251.1923-22.03-48.57
江西1141.40183.13171061.09171.5113-7.04-51.69
山东3756.3123.34151944.2770.9327-48.24-72.10
河南4438.3313.55132370.8650.9925-46.58-72.07
湖北1536.20122.82201428.97111.2321-6.98-56.21
湖南2507.1363.00182212.2561.4914-11.76-50.43
广东1485.29152.33241004.54181.2222-32.37-47.69
广西1884.41103.68121391.56141.5512-26.15-58.04
海南364.24263.8311194.45271.1824-46.61-69.18
重庆866.91233.4714622.69231.4117-28.17-59.49
四川3640.0332.96193140.5521.4914-13.72-49.63
贵州1916.6999.8741292.10153.097-32.59-68.72
云南2282.0976.7262672.8333.14617.12-53.21
陕西944.20214.749713.70211.9310-24.41-59.23
甘肃1347.131710.4331685.24104.93325.10-52.72
青海1134.231921.9411404.711312.80123.85-41.65
宁夏327.36277.125602.06244.86483.91-31.69
新疆2273.56812.3922650.9546.55216.60-47.10
), ArticleFig(id=1241116649617682622, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

中国30个省区畜牧业碳排放总量及强度

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省区市2005年2022年变动率Ⅰ(%)变动率Ⅱ(%)
总量(万t)排名强度(t/万元)排名总量(万t)排名强度(t/万元)排名
北京241.29281.782931.69300.9826-86.87-44.62
天津230.66292.2526143.61281.2620-37.74-43.85
河北3049.5942.71221783.7190.8929-41.51-67.34
山西942.17226.347826.68202.438-12.26-61.61
内蒙古2794.5556.2983274.5313.78517.18-39.83
辽宁1519.13132.39231417.54121.2719-6.69-46.92
吉林1465.58163.13161233.09161.4816-15.86-52.73
黑龙江1828.24113.96101885.5881.72113.14-56.56
上海113.22302.092747.88292.239-57.716.85
江苏1038.48201.7330686.32220.8929-33.91-48.68
浙江558.19251.9528289.89261.4117-48.07-28.00
安徽1506.85142.7221996.69190.9128-33.86-66.53
福建637.21242.3025496.82251.1923-22.03-48.57
江西1141.40183.13171061.09171.5113-7.04-51.69
山东3756.3123.34151944.2770.9327-48.24-72.10
河南4438.3313.55132370.8650.9925-46.58-72.07
湖北1536.20122.82201428.97111.2321-6.98-56.21
湖南2507.1363.00182212.2561.4914-11.76-50.43
广东1485.29152.33241004.54181.2222-32.37-47.69
广西1884.41103.68121391.56141.5512-26.15-58.04
海南364.24263.8311194.45271.1824-46.61-69.18
重庆866.91233.4714622.69231.4117-28.17-59.49
四川3640.0332.96193140.5521.4914-13.72-49.63
贵州1916.6999.8741292.10153.097-32.59-68.72
云南2282.0976.7262672.8333.14617.12-53.21
陕西944.20214.749713.70211.9310-24.41-59.23
甘肃1347.131710.4331685.24104.93325.10-52.72
青海1134.231921.9411404.711312.80123.85-41.65
宁夏327.36277.125602.06244.86483.91-31.69
新疆2273.56812.3922650.9546.55216.60-47.10
), ArticleFig(id=1241116649718345926, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Animal husbandry carbon emission structure in 30 provinces of China in 2022

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
类型省区市牛饲养羊饲养生猪饲养其他畜禽饲养能源利用
数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)
牛饲养驱动型北京17.1254.024.2513.414.9915.750.872.754.4614.07
吉林597.0248.42151.9512.32285.1723.1354.994.46143.9611.67
黑龙江912.7248.41190.5610.11359.2619.0539.322.09383.7220.35
贵州784.6760.7384.856.57307.7023.8130.562.3784.326.53
云南1430.3653.51311.1011.64702.5926.2969.982.62158.85.94
青海1048.3474.63311.1422.1511.920.8514.151.0119.161.36
宁夏405.7467.39157.6126.1817.182.852.100.3519.433.23
生猪饲养驱动型江苏53.827.8486.8712.66350.1851.0274.8810.91120.5717.57
浙江28.919.9735.3612.20131.8645.4920.927.2272.8425.13
安徽175.7917.64142.0514.25452.8445.43111.1511.15114.8611.52
福建57.3111.5424.014.83250.2450.37108.6021.8656.6611.40
湖北390.9327.36121.598.51664.5146.5060.174.21191.7713.42
广东187.7518.6919.771.97542.1353.97130.1212.95124.7712.42
重庆177.8028.5575.7012.16295.2547.4224.523.9449.427.94
双类别驱动型河北713.8740.02310.7017.42543.5730.4788.134.94127.447.14
内蒙古1353.5741.341393.0942.54137.504.20140.304.28250.077.64
辽宁492.2034.72181.7412.82448.7231.65117.798.31177.0912.49
江西437.9741.2831.402.96475.1244.7857.815.4558.795.54
湖南710.6932.13179.408.11968.6943.7955.252.50298.2213.48
广西629.5645.2460.894.38518.9737.29114.298.2167.854.88
海南77.4039.8013.897.1463.6032.7117.328.9122.2411.44
四川1469.9846.81346.0311.021015.2432.33145.984.65163.325.20
甘肃865.6651.37571.9033.94138.878.2450.212.9858.63.48
新疆1142.2143.091066.9540.25113.904.30168.356.35159.546.02
三类别驱动型天津54.6338.0411.447.9731.0821.646.164.2940.328.06
山西253.7830.70247.6129.95183.8622.2427.093.28114.3413.83
上海12.6226.363.136.5415.3832.120.531.1116.2233.88
山东511.3926.30332.4317.10702.0636.11267.0313.73131.366.76
河南684.1128.85459.8619.40917.6238.70114.584.83194.698.21
陕西260.0036.43200.1328.04198.1527.769.351.3146.076.46
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2022年中国30个省区畜牧业碳排放结构

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类型省区市牛饲养羊饲养生猪饲养其他畜禽饲养能源利用
数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)数量(万t)比重(%)
牛饲养驱动型北京17.1254.024.2513.414.9915.750.872.754.4614.07
吉林597.0248.42151.9512.32285.1723.1354.994.46143.9611.67
黑龙江912.7248.41190.5610.11359.2619.0539.322.09383.7220.35
贵州784.6760.7384.856.57307.7023.8130.562.3784.326.53
云南1430.3653.51311.1011.64702.5926.2969.982.62158.85.94
青海1048.3474.63311.1422.1511.920.8514.151.0119.161.36
宁夏405.7467.39157.6126.1817.182.852.100.3519.433.23
生猪饲养驱动型江苏53.827.8486.8712.66350.1851.0274.8810.91120.5717.57
浙江28.919.9735.3612.20131.8645.4920.927.2272.8425.13
安徽175.7917.64142.0514.25452.8445.43111.1511.15114.8611.52
福建57.3111.5424.014.83250.2450.37108.6021.8656.6611.40
湖北390.9327.36121.598.51664.5146.5060.174.21191.7713.42
广东187.7518.6919.771.97542.1353.97130.1212.95124.7712.42
重庆177.8028.5575.7012.16295.2547.4224.523.9449.427.94
双类别驱动型河北713.8740.02310.7017.42543.5730.4788.134.94127.447.14
内蒙古1353.5741.341393.0942.54137.504.20140.304.28250.077.64
辽宁492.2034.72181.7412.82448.7231.65117.798.31177.0912.49
江西437.9741.2831.402.96475.1244.7857.815.4558.795.54
湖南710.6932.13179.408.11968.6943.7955.252.50298.2213.48
广西629.5645.2460.894.38518.9737.29114.298.2167.854.88
海南77.4039.8013.897.1463.6032.7117.328.9122.2411.44
四川1469.9846.81346.0311.021015.2432.33145.984.65163.325.20
甘肃865.6651.37571.9033.94138.878.2450.212.9858.63.48
新疆1142.2143.091066.9540.25113.904.30168.356.35159.546.02
三类别驱动型天津54.6338.0411.447.9731.0821.646.164.2940.328.06
山西253.7830.70247.6129.95183.8622.2427.093.28114.3413.83
上海12.6226.363.136.5415.3832.120.531.1116.2233.88
山东511.3926.30332.4317.10702.0636.11267.0313.73131.366.76
河南684.1128.85459.8619.40917.6238.70114.584.83194.698.21
陕西260.0036.43200.1328.04198.1527.769.351.3146.076.46
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Global Moran Index statistics of animal husbandry carbon emission intensity of China's from 2005 to 2022

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年份Moran’s IZ值P年份Moran’s IZ值P
20050.3424.7080.00020140.4015.8010.000
20060.3594.8090.00020150.3945.6360.000
20070.3735.0850.00020160.3885.5600.000
20080.3915.6950.00020170.3475.1700.000
20090.3985.7820.00020180.3465.2090.000
20100.3975.8700.00020190.3655.1570.000
20110.4005.9400.00020200.3495.0420.000
20120.4105.9710.00020210.2964.6500.000
20130.4095.8740.00020220.3054.5950.000
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2005~2022年中国畜牧业碳排放强度的全局莫兰指数统计值

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年份Moran’s IZ值P年份Moran’s IZ值P
20050.3424.7080.00020140.4015.8010.000
20060.3594.8090.00020150.3945.6360.000
20070.3735.0850.00020160.3885.5600.000
20080.3915.6950.00020170.3475.1700.000
20090.3985.7820.00020180.3465.2090.000
20100.3975.8700.00020190.3655.1570.000
20110.4005.9400.00020200.3495.0420.000
20120.4105.9710.00020210.2964.6500.000
20130.4095.8740.00020220.3054.5950.000
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Local spatial clustering of animal husbandry carbon emission intensity in 30 provinces in main years

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年份高-高集聚区低-高集聚区低-低集聚区高-低集聚区
2005内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆广西、重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、海南山西、贵州
2010贵州、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆广西、重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、山西、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、海南内蒙古
2015云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、山西、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南内蒙古、贵州
2022云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南山西、内蒙古、贵州
), ArticleFig(id=1241116650280382697, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241116641925329919, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

主要年份30省区畜牧业碳排放强度的局部空间聚类情况

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年份高-高集聚区低-高集聚区低-低集聚区高-低集聚区
2005内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆广西、重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、海南山西、贵州
2010贵州、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆广西、重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、山西、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、海南内蒙古
2015云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、山西、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南内蒙古、贵州
2022云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆重庆、四川、陕西北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南山西、内蒙古、贵州
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中国畜牧业碳排放再测算:现状特征、动态演进及空间相关性
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田云 * , 夏锐 , 李贝
中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025,45(3): 1686-1698
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中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025, 45(3): 1686-1698
中国畜牧业碳排放再测算:现状特征、动态演进及空间相关性
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田云* , 夏锐, 李贝
作者信息
  • 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,WTO与湖北发展研究中心,湖北 武汉 430073
  • 田云(1986-),男,湖北长阳人,中南财经政法大学副教授,主要研究方向为碳达峰与碳中和、低碳经济与低碳农业.发表论文100余篇..

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* 责任作者,副教授,
Re-evaluation of China’s animal husbandry carbon emission: Current characteristics, dynamic evolution, and spatial correlation
Yun TIAN* , Rui XIA, Bei LI
Affiliations
  • WTO and Hubei Development Research Center, School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
出版时间: 2025-03-20
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以2005~2022年作为考察期,在对中国畜牧业碳排放进行重新测算并分析现状特征的基础上,围绕其动态演进规律及空间关联性特点进行了探讨.结果显示:考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放总量虽存在增减起伏但总体表现出下降趋势,碳排放强度一直处于持续下降态势仅年际降速有所区别,牛和生猪饲养是导致畜牧业碳排放的关键动因;2022年各省区畜牧业碳排放量差异明显,排在前10位的地区主要为核心畜牧业产区或粮食主产区,省际畜牧业碳排放强度总体表现出“西北高、东南低”的分布格局,根据各地区畜牧业碳排放的构成情况可将30个省区划分为牛饲养驱动型、生猪饲养驱动型等4种类型;考察期内畜牧业整体以及牛、羊饲养碳排放强度均表现出了明显下降趋势且省际差距大幅缩小;而生猪饲养碳排放强度虽也出现下降但其省际差距却明显扩大.考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度始终存在显著的空间依赖性,且以低-低集聚为主、高-高集聚为辅,同时呈现出“低者恒低、高者恒高”的特征.

农业碳排放  /  畜牧业碳排放  /  现状特征  /  动态演进  /  空间相关

This paper takes the period from 2005 to 2022 as the examination period, and discusses the dynamic evolution law and spatial correlation characteristics of China's animal husbandry on the basis of re-measuring its carbon emissions and analyzing its current characteristics. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions from China's animal husbandry in the study period has fluctuated, but the overall trend is declining, the carbon emission intensity has been in a continuous downward trend, only the inter-annual rate of decline is different, cattle and hog feeding is the key driver of carbon emissions from the animal husbandry. In 2022, the carbon emissions of the animal husbandry in each province and region were significantly different, and the top 10regions were mainly identified as core livestock production areas or grain production areas. The carbon emissions intensity of the animal husbandry in the interprovincial area was characterized by a distribution pattern of 'high in the northwest and low in the southeast'. The 30 provinces and regions were categorized into four types, such as those driven by cattle feeding and those driven by hog feeding, based on the composition of the carbon emissions of the animal husbandry in each region. During the study period, the carbon emission intensity of the animal husbandry as a whole, as well as that of cattle and sheep rearing, showed an obvious downward trend and the inter-provincial gap narrowed significantly; while the carbon emission intensity of hog rearing also declined, but the inter-provincial gap widened significantly. During the study period, the carbon emission intensity of China's animal husbandry has always had a significant spatial dependence, with low-low agglomeration as the main focus and high-high agglomeration as the secondary focus, and showing the characteristic of “the low is always low and the high is always high”.

agricultural carbon emission  /  animal husbandry carbon emission  /  current situation  /  dynamic evolution  /  spatial correlation
田云, 夏锐, 李贝. 中国畜牧业碳排放再测算:现状特征、动态演进及空间相关性. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (3) : 1686 -1698 .
Yun TIAN, Rui XIA, Bei LI. Re-evaluation of China’s animal husbandry carbon emission: Current characteristics, dynamic evolution, and spatial correlation[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (3) : 1686 -1698 .
近年来,气候变暖问题引起了全球社会的广泛关注,大量的温室气体排放则是导致气候变暖的重要因素[1].在此背景下,世界主要国家和地区相继做出自主减排承诺,为抑制越发严峻的气候问题积极贡献力量.而作为全球第二大经济体以及重要的碳排放大国,中国早在2020年9月就明确提出了“双碳”目标,自此之后的历年政府工作报告都强调要大力推进碳达峰碳中和工作.在这个过程中,二、三产业固然是减排降碳的主战场,但也不可忽视农业生产部门巨大的减排潜力.具体到农业内部,2022年我国畜牧业产值占到了农林牧渔总产值的27.16%[2],仅次于种植业所占比重;同时,又有数据表明,动物肠道发酵与粪便管理所产生的甲烷与氧化亚氮排放约占我国农业碳排放总量的45.7%[3].而鉴于畜牧业较大的产业规模以及较高的温室气体排放量,理应将其作为农业减排降碳的又一重要突破口.事实上,国家政策层面也多次对畜牧业碳减排工作进行指导与布置.2022年6月,《农业农村减排固碳实施方案》明确的六大重点任务中包含畜牧业减排降碳,十大重大行动中也涉及到了畜禽低碳减排行动与监测体系建设行动.2023年11月,《甲烷排放控制行动方案》要求推进畜禽粪污资源化利用、科学控制肠道发酵甲烷排放.可见,为了农业农村“双碳”目标的早日实现,大力推进畜牧业碳减排已刻不容缓,而更好地厘清当前中国畜牧业碳排放的基本现状与典型特征无疑能为此项工作的顺利开展提供重要助力.
关于畜牧业碳排放问题的探索,国外起步更早,主要围绕畜牧业碳排放的形成机理与缓解策略展开研究[4-6].国内起步略晚,但在进行定性分析的同时已将视角投入到了畜牧业碳排放的定量评估与特征分析,初期学者们多将畜牧业碳排放作为农业碳排放的一部分进行简要分析[7-9];后续随着相关研究的逐步深入,不少学者单独围绕畜牧业碳排放问题展开探讨,研究视角主要聚焦于以下三个方面:一是畜牧业碳排放测算与基本特征分析[10-14].综合结果显示,全国畜牧业碳排放量总体处于波动下降趋势,反刍动物饲养是引发畜牧业碳排放的关键动因;分区域来看,草原牧区和粮食主产区占据相对主导地位,碳排放整体呈现出显著的局部集聚特征.与此同时,部分学者还基于华中地区[15]、山东[16]、内蒙古[17]等地的情况,从区域或省域层面展开了相关探讨.
二是畜牧业碳排放效率测度及基本特征分析.畜牧业碳排放效率(又被称作畜牧业环境效率[18]、畜牧业绿色全要素生产率[19])的测算通常借助SBM模型,实际分析中一般将劳动力、资本等界定为投入要素,畜牧业产值与畜牧业碳排放量则分别界定为期望产出与非期望产出[20].相关结果表明[18-21],相较于中西部地区,东部地区畜牧业碳排放效率处于较高水平.除了国家层面的探索外,还有一些学者围绕某一区域抑或某一省区展开研究[17,22].
三是畜牧业碳排放影响因素及减排路径探索.关于畜牧业碳排放影响因素的探究,综合研究表明[23-26],经济效应、人口规模、效率因素、产业结构是影响畜牧业碳排放的重要因素.与此同时,还有一些学者探讨了特定因素(如:畜牧业产业集聚[27]、畜产品进口[28])对畜牧业碳排放的影响.关于畜牧业碳排放减排路径的探究则可大致分为畜牧业[29-30]、肉牛产业[31]和肉羊产业[32]三个视角.
综上,既有文献为畜牧业碳排放后续研究的进一步拓展与完善提供了有力支撑.但同时,现有研究也存在一定不足,一是畜牧业碳排放测算体系的细化指标的选择太过聚焦于各类畜禽品种,而对畜牧业生产活动中的各类能源消耗缺乏关注,一定程度上造成了对畜牧业碳排放的低估.二是对于畜牧业碳排放现状特征的分析多停留于总量层面的时空比较,而对畜牧业碳排放结构、碳排放强度却缺乏应有关注,同时更鲜有学者能将畜牧业碳排放的动态演进与空间相关性纳入到同一研究框架.鉴于此,本文基于重新构建的指标体系对中国及其各个省区2005~2022年畜牧业碳排放进行再测算,厘清其在总量、结构以及强度方面所表现出来的时空差异;以畜牧业碳排放强度为指标,利用核密度分析法对整个畜牧业以及牛、羊与生猪饲养碳排放的动态演进特征进行系统考察;运用空间自相关模型探索畜牧业碳排放强度是否存在空间依赖性与异质性;最后基于相关研究结论提出推进中国畜牧业低碳发展的对策建议.
相较于既有文献,本文可能的边际贡献主要体现在以下三点:一是本文通过综合考量中国各省份的畜牧业碳排放现状及其结构特征,扩展了传统研究的视角.与现有文献相比,本研究不仅全面分析了各省区的碳排放总量和强度,还深入探讨了碳排放的结构性差异.这种多角度的分析方式能够更准确地揭示中国畜牧业碳排放的复杂性和多样性.二是本文在现有研究[10-13]的基础上,构建了一个更为全面的畜牧业碳排放测算体系,该体系不仅考虑了畜禽养殖过程中的直接排放,还涵盖了能源使用碳排放这一间接排放,从而能够提供一个更接近实际情况的测算结果.该处理方式有助于更准确地评估畜牧业对环境的影响.三是本文采用了核密度分析法和空间自相关模型,对畜牧业碳排放强度的动态演进特征及其空间相关性进行了深入分析.与既有文献[10-1215]采用的传统描述性统计或简单趋势分析相比,这些方法能够更精细地捕捉碳排放强度的分布特征和变化趋势,同时能够揭示不同地区之间碳排放强度的空间依赖性和集聚特征.这些方法的应用,不仅增强了研究的深度,也为揭示畜牧业碳排放的时空特征提供了有力证据.
截至目前,已有大量学者针对畜牧业碳排放展开测算与分析[101320232533-34].综合来看,既有研究构建的畜牧业碳排放测算指标体系存在以下特点:在具体畜禽品种的选择上已逐步趋于一致但仍存在亟待完善的地方;关于畜牧业生产过程中的能源消耗鲜有学者提及,事实上畜禽养殖也涉及到柴油、汽油、电力等的耗费;产前与产后环节的碳排放已不属于第一产业范畴,将其归至为畜牧业碳排放可能导致重复计算问题的出现.
鉴于此,本文尝试规避上述不足,将从两个方面对畜牧业碳排放进行重新测度:一是畜禽养殖碳排放.主要考察各类畜禽生长发育过程中因为食物消化以及粪便排泄物所导致的甲烷与氧化亚氮排放,畜禽品种包括牛(分为水牛、肉牛和奶牛)、马、驴、骡、骆驼、羊(分为山羊和绵羊)、生猪和家禽,由于自2012年开始相关年鉴缺乏对省际兔饲养量的统计,为确保测算口径的一致性,未将兔饲养量考虑在内.各类畜禽的碳排放系数出自IPCC,具体参照Tian等[35]的研究.二是农业能源利用碳排放.主要考察畜牧业生产过程中各类能源耗费所产生的碳排放,能源类别包含原煤、其他洗煤、煤制品、焦炭、汽油、柴油、燃料油、液化石油气、天然气、热力与电力,各自碳排放系数的计算方法及获取渠道参照蒋金荷等[36]和田云等[37]的研究.需要特别说明的是,鉴于统计部门及相关年鉴均只提供了农业能源利用总体数据而未提供基于农林牧渔各个部门的细分资料,本文将沿用一些学者借助部门产值占比情况考察细分部门要素投入量的做法[38-40],在测算过程中根据畜牧业产值的实际占比情况明确其能源消耗量.据此,构建畜牧业碳排放测算公式如下:
式中:AC、AC1与AC2依次表示畜牧业碳排放、畜禽养殖碳排放和农业能源利用碳排放;Taδa分别指代各类畜禽的养殖数量及对应的甲烷、氧化亚氮排放系数;Tbδb分别代表各类能源的消耗数量及其所对应的碳排放系数;ϑ为畜牧业产值占农林牧渔总产值的比重.实际分析中,将参照田云等[37]的做法,将甲烷、氧化亚氮统一转换成标准二氧化碳.
核密度分析法主要适用于一些非均衡分布问题的探究,一般是基于数字自身,通过密度曲线的构建将随机变量的分布形态予以呈现并估计概率密度.本文也将利用该方法对畜牧业碳排放强度的概率分布进行估计,以便更好地厘清中国畜牧业碳排放的分布特征与演进趋势.核密度估计的函数形式表达如下:
式中:f(x)表示畜牧业碳排放强度的核函数;n为省区总数;i表示第i个省区;h为带宽;为各地区畜牧业碳排放强度均值.
考虑到带宽选择的科学与否会显著影响到核密度函数的精度与曲线的平滑程度,故本文将参照经验做法[41-42],选用高斯核函数进行相关估计,其函数表达式如下:
空间自相关包含全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关.其中,全局空间自相关通常以莫兰指数进行衡量,它能够有效地反映某一属性值在整个研究区域内的空间分布模式.参照一般做法[43-45],本文将利用全局莫兰指数对畜牧业碳排放强度是否存在空间集聚特征进行考察,其公式如下:
式中:Moran's I表示全局莫兰指数;XiXj分别表示i省区和j省区的畜牧业碳排放强度;为均值;n为省区数量;Wij表示空间权重矩阵,鉴于中国各省区基本情况存在较大差别,实际分析中选取地理距离空间权重矩阵代入以上公式.Moran's I的取值范围-1~1,当Moran's I>0、<0时,分别表示畜牧业碳排放强度呈现空间正相关性与负相关性;当Moran's I趋近于0时,表示畜牧业碳排放强度呈随机分布状态,不存在空间自相关.
局部自相关一般通过局部莫兰指数进行衡量,用于考察各个地区与其邻近地区之间的空间差异程度,可以弥补全局自相关在此方面存在的不足.基于此,本文将使用局部莫兰指数对各省区畜牧业碳排放强度的集聚效应进行考察,其公式如下:
式中:Ii表示局部莫兰指数,其他符号的含义与式(4)一致.局部空间自相关由以下四种类型构成:①高-高集聚,即畜牧业碳排放强度较高地区与其他强度较高地区相邻;②低-低集聚,即畜牧业碳排放强度较低地区周边伴有其他强度较低地区;③高-低集聚,即畜牧业碳排放强度较高地区周边为强度较低地区;④低-高集聚,即畜牧业碳排放强度较低地区周边为强度较高地区.
本文以中国及其30个省区作为研究对象,而西藏及港澳台地区由于相关数据较难获取,不在此次考察之列.其中,畜牧业碳排放测算所涉及的牲畜饲养量数据主要出自历年的《中国农村统计年鉴》以及部分省区的相关年鉴,且在测算之前,本文参照胡向东等[10]的做法,根据出栏率及生长周期的不同对各类畜禽的年平均饲养量进行了调整.畜牧业碳排放测算所涉及的原煤、汽油、柴油等各类能源消耗均出自历年的《中国能源统计年鉴》,且以当年实际消耗数量为准.此外,畜牧业产值与农林牧渔总产值数据均出自历年《中国农村统计年鉴》,其中在考察畜牧业产值占农林牧渔总产值比重时均以当年实际值为准,而在计算畜牧业碳排放强度时本文以2005年为基期对畜牧业产值进行了不变价处理.
对2005~2022年中国畜牧业碳排放总量进行测度并明晰其结构,同时以畜牧业产值作为参照计算其强度,结果详见表1.结果显示,2022年中国畜牧业碳排放总量为39506.85万t,较2005年的47770.67万t累计减少了17.30%,年平均递减1.11%.考察期内虽存在增减起伏但总体表现出下降趋势,结合其变化特征可大致分为四个阶段,即波动下降期、波动上升期、持续下降期和持续上升期.其中,2005~2008年为第一阶段,畜牧业碳排放量在2006年创下了整个考察期的最高值47971.69万t,而后快速下降,至2008年已降至39408.74万t,该阶段畜牧业碳排放总量累计减少17.50%,年平均递减6.21%,主要源于大牲畜特别是役畜数量的减少.2008~2015年为第二阶段,除2013年外的其余各年均处于上升趋势,该阶段畜牧业碳排放总量由39408.74万t增至41665.21万t,累计增加5.73%,年平均递增0.80%,主要归结于生猪饲养量的不断增加.2015~2019年为第三阶段,畜牧业碳排放总量持续下降,由41665.21万t降至35039.17万t,累计下降15.90%,年平均递减4.24%,主要源于大牲畜饲养量的持续减少,以及猪瘟影响下生猪饲养量波动所致.2019~2022年为第四阶段,畜牧业碳排放总量呈现逐年递增趋势,由35039.17万t增至39506.85万t,累计增加12.75%,年平均递增4.08%,主要归结于牛饲养量的增加与生猪饲养量的恢复.至于畜牧业碳排放强度,自2005年起一直处于持续下降态势,最终由3.60t/万元降至1.66t/万元,累计降幅高达53.89%,年平均递减4.45%.
2022年牛、羊、生猪、其他畜禽饲养以及能源消耗所导致的碳排放量依次为15937.92万t、7127.40万t、10848.15万t、2122.50万t和3470.88万t,分别占中国畜牧业碳排放总量的40.34%、18.04%、27.46%、5.37%和8.79%;2005年以来虽然各自碳排放数量、所占比重以及增减变化均表现出了一定差异,但整体格局并无太大变化.具体而言,牛饲养碳排放一直占据绝对主导地位,考察期内其绝对数量虽大幅下降但限于基数太大,占比始终处于较高水平,在初期甚至占到了畜牧业碳排放总量的近50%,之后虽不断下降但至2022年仍维持在40.34%的高位.生猪饲养碳排放始终居于第二位,其绝对数量在整个考察期内甚至略有上升,所占比重也由2005年的21.45%升至2022年的27.46%,提高了超过6个百分点.羊饲养碳排放一直居于第三位,虽然考察期内其绝对数量累计减少了10.93%,但所占比重略有提升,由2022年的16.75%升至2022年的18.04%,提高了近1.3个百分点.能源消耗碳排放始终排在第四位,整个考察期内其绝对数量累计减少了14.16%,所占比重略有提升.其他畜禽饲养碳排放一直排在最后一位,整个考察期内其绝对数量累计减少了12.58%,所占比重略微提升但从未超过6.0%.总体而言,牛和生猪饲养是导致畜牧业碳排放的关键动因,二者占比之和接近70%.
对考察期内中国30个省区的畜牧业碳排放量进行测算同时计算其强度,相关结果如表2所示.从中不难发现,2022年畜牧业碳排放量排在第一位的地区是内蒙古,达3274.53万t;四川紧随其后排在第二位,其碳排放量也高达3140.55万t,与内蒙古一道成为“唯二”超过3000万t的省区;云南、新疆、河南、湖南、山东、黑龙江、河北及甘肃顺次排在2~10位,其碳排放量介于1600~2700万t之间;上述10地除云南外均为我国核心畜牧业产区或者粮食主产区,累计之和占到了我国畜牧业碳排放总量的将近6成(59.79%).与此对应,畜牧业碳排放量最低的地区是北京,仅为31.69万t,只相当于榜首内蒙古的0.97%;上海紧随其后排在倒数第二位,其碳排放量为47.88万t,与北京一起成为“唯二”低于100万t的省区;天津、海南、浙江、福建、宁夏、重庆、江苏和陕西顺次排在倒数3~10位,其碳排放量介于100~700万t之间;以上地区碳排放量较低多数源于自身体量较小,比如京、津、沪、琼、宁、渝等,少数则与自身农业产业结构特征有关,10地累计加总仅占我国畜牧业碳排放总量的9.69%.与基期2005年相比,2022年高达23个地区畜牧业碳排放量明显下降,其中以北京降幅最大,高达86.87%;上海、山东、浙江和海南顺次排在2~5位,下降幅度均超过了45%.余下7个地区畜牧业碳排放量均有不同程度的提升且以宁夏增幅最大,高达83.91%;甘肃、青海以较大差距顺次排在二、三位,其增加幅度分别为25.10%和23.85%.
2022年各省区畜牧业碳排放强度差异较大,总体呈现“西北高、东南低”的分布格局.具体而言,2022年畜牧业碳排放强度最高的地区是青海,达到了12.80t/万元;而河北和江苏并列排在最后一位,仅为0.89t/万元,只相当于榜首青海的6.95%.进一步,本文按照畜牧业碳排放强度的绝对数值差异将30个省区由高到低划分成四个档次.具体而言,第一档为畜牧业碳排放强度在5.0t/万元以上的省区,包含青海、新疆两地.二地牧草面积广阔,且以粗放型放牧业为主,致使碳排放强度处于最高层次.第二档为畜牧业碳排放强度介于2.0~5.0t/万元的省区,包含山西、内蒙古、上海、贵州、云南、甘肃、宁夏等7个地区.其中,位于华北、西北的诸省(区)碳排放强度较高主要归结于以牛羊为主的养殖结构以及相对粗放的生产模式;黔、滇两地地处西南横断山区,交通不够便利故而对役畜仍有一定依赖,致使碳排放强度较高;上海则与其养殖结构、能源消耗过大有关.第三档为畜牧业碳排放强度介于1.0~2.0t/万元的省区,包含天津、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、浙江、福建、江西、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、海南、重庆、四川、山西等15个地区.多数地区生猪饲养占有相当地位,由于生猪不存在反刍现象,使之相比牛羊饲养在同等产值情形下其碳排放量要低一些,加之上述地区多位于我国东、中部地区,整体经济水平更高,规模效应更为突出.第四档为畜牧业碳排放强度在1.0t/万元以下的省区,包含北京、河北、江苏、安徽、山东、河南等6个地区.上述地区均位于我国东、中部,在经济发展水平或者农业发展程度上大多居于全国前列,且不少地区生猪饲养占有相当比重,从而客观上降低了碳排放强度.相比基期,仅上海一地畜牧业碳排放强度略有上升(增加6.85%),余下29个地区均表现出了下降态势,其中以山东降幅最大,高达72.10%;河南以微弱劣势排在第二位,其降幅为72.07%;海南、贵州和河北顺次排在3~5位,其降幅也达到了69.18%、68.72%和67.34%.
由于我国幅员辽阔,地形地貌复杂多样,且气候类型存在南北差异、沿海与内陆差异,使得各个地区的畜牧业生产方式、品种饲养结构存在差别,可能会影响到畜牧业碳排放结构.为此,本文根据各个地区畜牧业碳排放的构成特点将30个省区划分为以下4种类型(表3):①牛饲养驱动型,即畜牧业碳排放以牛饲养碳排放为主(占比超过45%)而其他类型碳排放所占比重相对较低(均低于30%),包含北京、吉林、黑龙江等7个地区.②生猪饲养驱动型,即畜牧业碳排放以生猪饲养碳排放为主(占比超过45%)而其他类型碳排放所占比重相对较低(均低于30%),包含江苏、浙江、安徽、福建等7个地区.③双类别驱动型,即畜牧业碳排放主要源自两个方面(二者占比均在30%以上)而其他类型碳排放占比均较低(低于15%),包含河北、内蒙古、辽宁等10个地区.④三类别驱动型,即畜牧业碳排放主要源自三个方面(三者占比均高于15%)而其他类型碳排放占比均比较低(低于15%),包含天津、山西、山东等6个地区.
本文除了对畜牧业碳排放总体动态演进情况进行考察外,还将分别对牛(不含奶牛)、羊、生猪三类主要牲畜饲养碳排放强度的动态演进情况进行探讨.需要说明的是,由于国家统计局在核算畜牧业分项产值时对奶产品产值进行了单列考察,为避免统计口径不一致造成的测算偏误,本文在讨论牛饲养碳排放强度的动态演进时不再考虑奶牛养殖引致的碳排放量.畜牧业及上述三类牲畜饲养碳排放强度的动态演进情况如图1所示.
图1(a)可见,2005~2022年.在整体上,我国畜牧业碳排放强度的核密度曲线中心由右向左偏移且2022年的曲线峰值明显高于基期,变化区间明显缩小,波峰由基期的单峰形态发展为“一主三次”的四峰形态.具体来看,相较于2005年,2010年核密度中心向左移动且峰值明显提升,变化区间缩小,主峰宽度明显收窄,由“宽扁型”转变为“尖窄型”,波峰由单峰演变为“一主三次”的四峰形态.这意味着,该阶段中国畜牧业碳排放强度明显下降,省际差距有所缩小并一定程度上表现出多极分化趋势.相较于2010年,2015年核密度中心继续向左偏移但其幅度明显缩小,峰值有所提高且变化区间进一步缩小,波峰状况维持不变.由此揭示,该阶段中国畜牧业碳排放强度有所下降,省际差距持续缩小并继续保持多极分化格局.相较于2015年,2022年核密度中心继续小幅左移,峰值持续提高且变化区间进一步缩小,波峰依旧保持为”一主三次”的四峰形态.这说明,该阶段中国畜牧业碳排放强度继续下降,省际差距进一步缩小且表现出稳定的多极分化形态.相较于2005年,2022年核密度中心明显左移,峰值大幅提高且变化区间明显缩小,主峰由“宽扁型”向“尖窄型”演变,波峰由单峰演变为“一主三次”的四峰形态.这意味着,整个考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度大幅下降,省际差距明显缩小并表现出多极分化格局.
图1(b)可见,2005~2022年在整体上,牛饲养碳排放强度的核密度曲线中心由右向左偏移,2022年曲线峰值明显高于基期,变化区间明显缩小.具体来看,相较于2005年,2010年核密度中心向左移动且峰值有所提高,波峰宽度大幅收窄,变化区间明显缩小.这意味着,该阶段牛饲养碳排放强度明显下降且省际差距明显缩小.相较于2010年,2015年核密度中心略微向左移动,峰值进一步提高,波峰由单峰转变为“一主一次”的双峰形态,变化区间进一步缩小.由此表明,该阶段牛饲养碳排放强度进一步下降且省际差距有所减小.相较于2015年,2022年核密度中心基本无偏移,主峰峰值明显上升,变化区间有所减小,波峰形态由“一主一次”的双峰形态转变为单峰形态.这说明,该阶段牛饲养碳排放强度有所下降且省际差距进一步减小.相较于2005年,2022年核密度中心明显左移,峰值大幅提高且变化区间明显缩小.这意味着,整个考察期内牛饲养碳排放强度明显下降且省际差距大幅缩小.
图1(c)可见,2005~2022年在整体上,我国羊饲养碳排放强度的核密度曲线中心自右向左偏移且2022年的曲线峰值明显高于基期,变化区间大幅缩小.具体来看,①相较于2005年,2010年核密度中心大幅左移,峰值明显升高且波峰宽度有所收紧,变化区间明显缩小,波峰由单峰形态转变为“一主一次”的双峰形态.这意味着,该阶段羊饲养碳排放强度明显下降,省际差距大幅缩小且表现出了一定的两极分化格局.②相较于2010年,2015年核密度中心小幅左移,且峰值略有提高,变化区间进一步缩小,波峰由“一主一次”的双峰形态转变为单峰形态.这说明,该阶段羊饲养碳排放强度继续下降,省际差距进一步缩小且两极分化格局消失.③相较于2015年,2022年核密度中心略微向左移动且峰值明显提高,变化区间进一步缩小,波峰由单峰形态转变为“一主一次”的双峰形态.由此表明,该阶段羊饲养碳排放强度继续处于下降态势,省际间的差距进一步缩小且再次呈现出两极分化形态.④相较于2005年,2022年核密度中心明显向左移动,峰值明显提高,波峰宽度明显收紧且变化区间大幅缩小,波峰由单峰转变为“一主一次”的双峰形态.这意味着,整个考察期内羊饲养碳排放强度大幅下降,省际差距大幅缩小且呈现出了一定的两极分化格局.
图1(d)可见,2005~2022年在整体上,生猪碳排放强度的核密度曲线中心自右向左偏移但2022年的曲线峰值明显低于基期,变化区间明显扩大.具体来看,相较于2005年,2010年核密度中心小幅左移,峰值有所降低,变化区间明显缩小,波峰由“一主一次”的双峰形态转变为单峰形态.这意味着,该阶段生猪碳排放强度小幅下降且省际差距有所缩小.相较于2010年,2015年曲线形态基本一致,核密度中心向左微移,峰值进一步下降.这说明,该阶段生猪碳排放强度继续下降.相较于2015年,2022年核密度中心偏移幅度极小但峰值明显下降,变化区间大幅扩张.由此表明,该阶段生猪碳排放强度的省际差距大幅提升.相较于2005年,2022年核密度中心明显向左移动,峰值明显下降且变化区间明显扩大.这意味着,整个考察期内生猪碳排放强度虽有下降但省际差距明显拉大.
对2005~2022年中国畜牧业碳排放强度的全局莫兰指数进行测算同时考察其是否通过显著性检验,相关结果详见表4.从中易知,畜牧业碳排放强度的全局莫兰指数值在整个考察期内都大于0.29,且均通过了1%水平下的显著性检验.这表明,2005年以来中国畜牧业碳排放强度始终存在明显的空间依赖性,具体表现为,畜牧业碳排放强度较高的省区通常与一个或者多个高值省区相邻,而畜牧业碳排放强度相对较低的省区通常与其他一些低值省区相邻.从演变趋势来看,莫兰指数值表现出了“波动上升-持续下降-增减起伏”的三阶段特征.其中,2005~2012年为第一阶段,除2010年相比上一年略有下降外其他各年均处于上升态势,指数值由0.342增至0.410,累计增幅为19.88%;2012~2018年为第二阶段,所有年份均处于下降态势,指数值由0.410降至0.346,累计降幅为15.61%;2018~2022年为第三阶段,经历了“先增后降再增”的变化轨迹,最终指数值处于下降态势,由0.346降至0.305,累计下降了11.85%.综合来看,考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度的空间依赖性虽经历了“先增强、而后减弱、最后反复却仍减弱”的变化轨迹,但一直存在.
在对2005~2022年中国畜牧业碳排放强度的局部莫兰指数进行测算的基础上,选择2005年、2010年、2015年和2022年作为关键年份绘制局部莫兰散点图,以便了解中国30个省区畜牧业碳排放强度的空间相关性并揭示其局部空间聚类特征.从表5不难发现,虽然四个关键年份下中国畜牧业碳排放强度的局部空间聚类情况并非完全一致,但“低-低集聚省区为主、高-高集聚省区次之”的分布特征从未发生改变.由此揭示,中国畜牧业碳排放强度的空间集聚整体表现为“以低-低集聚为主、高-高集聚为辅”的“一主一次”格局.相比而言,处在低-高集聚和高-低集聚省区数量一直较少,二者之和所占比重从未超过20%.
具体而言,高-高集聚区在2005年包含内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等3省3自治区,主要分布于华北、西北地区,其中内蒙、甘、青、宁、新等5地连成一片,而云南位于此列主要源于邻近的贵州处在高-低集聚区,多数地区以粗放型放牧业为主,生产效率相对较低,致使碳排放强度偏高.2010年所含地区略有变化,贵州由高-低集聚转变而来,内蒙古则转向高-低集聚,二地集聚类型虽发生变化,但各自碳排放强度较高的事实均未改变,此时西北、西南各自连接成片.2015年贵州重回高-低集聚,其他地区维持不变,处在高-高集聚区的省区数量降至6个.2022年情形与2015年完全一致,高-高集聚区所含省区数量最终停留在6个.
低-低集聚区在2005年包含北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江等15省3直辖市,集中分布于华北、东北、华东、华东和华南地区,且整体连成一片,上述地区多位于我国农区,畜牧业发展以工厂集中化、规模化养殖为主、散户零星圈养为辅,整体生产效率较高,从而客观上降低了碳排放强度.2010年伴随着山西由高-低集聚转变而来且所含原有省区状态未发生改变,使得低-低集聚包含的省区数量升至19个.2015年广西由低-高集聚转变而来,原先所含地区均维持不变,由此使得低-低集聚包含的省区数量进一步提升至20个.2022年山西转为高-低集聚,所含其他地区均保持不变,使得低-低集聚区包含的省区数量最终停留在19个.
相比较而言,低-高集聚区和高-低集聚区所含地区一直较少,多介于2~4且从未超过4个.其中,低-高集聚区在2005年和2010年情形完全一致,均包含广西、重庆、四川、陕西4地,集中分布于西北和西南地区且渝、川、陕3地连接成片;2015年广西转变为低-低集聚,其他三地保持不变;2022年情形与2015年一致,渝、川、陕3地依然在列.高-低集聚区在2005年仅包含山西、贵州两地;2010年情形发生较大变化,山西、贵州分别转变为低-低集聚和高-高集聚,同时内蒙古由高-高集聚转变而来,从而使得高-低集聚区所含省区数量降至1个;2015年和2022年随着贵州、山西的相继回归,使得高-低集聚区所含省区数量最终为3个.
总体而言,考察期内各类集聚区无论是所含省区数量还是具体地区构成均未发生太大变化,其中处在低-低集聚区的省区由18个增至19个,占到了省区总数的6成以上,且华北、东北、华东、华中以及华南整体连接成片,可见当前多数地区畜牧业碳排放强度处于相对较低水平,减排成效明显.与此同时,不同年份局部空间聚类情况较为接近则反映了当前中国30个省区畜牧业碳排放强度的集聚状态已趋于稳定,整体呈现“低者恒低、高者恒高”的特征.
3.1.1 中国畜牧业碳排放无论是总量还是强度整体均处于下降态势.2022年中国畜牧业碳排放量为39506.85万t,相比2005年累计减少了17.30%.从变化趋势来看,畜牧业碳排放总量的演变轨迹可大致划分为“波动下降”“波动上升”“持续下降”与“持续上升”等四个阶段;而畜牧业碳排放强度一直处于持续下降态势仅年际降速有所区别.从其构成情况来看,牛和生猪饲养是导致畜牧业碳排放的关键动因,二者占比之和接近70%;羊饲养、农业能源消耗与其他畜禽饲养所导致的碳排放量则顺次排在3~5位.
3.1.2 畜牧业碳排放在总量、强度以及结构方面均表现出了明显的省际差异.其中,2022年内蒙古畜牧业碳排放量排在全国第一而北京则居于最后一位;相比基期有23个省区畜牧业碳排放量明显下降且以北京下降幅度最大,其他7个省区均处于提升状态且以宁夏提升幅度最大.省际畜牧业碳排放强度总体呈现“西北高、东南低”的分布格局,其中青海排在第一而河北、江苏并列排在最后一位.根据各地区畜牧业碳排放的构成情况可将30个省区划分为牛饲养驱动型、生猪饲养驱动型、双类别驱动型、三类别驱动型等4种类型.
3.1.3 畜牧业整体以及牛、羊、生猪饲养碳排放强度的动态演进特征同中有异.具体而言,考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度整体表现出了明显下降趋势,省际差距大幅缩小,整体表现出“一主三次”的多极分化格局.牛、羊饲养碳排放强度同样表现出了明显下降趋势且省际差距大幅缩小,但二者表现形式略有差异,后者呈现出了一定的两极分化格局;生猪饲养碳排放强度虽也下降但其省际差距却明显扩大.
3.1.4 中国畜牧业碳排放强度表现出了明显的空间依赖性与异质性.考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度始终存在显著的空间依赖性,即畜牧业碳排放强度较高的省区通常与一个或多个高值省区相邻,而畜牧业碳排放强度较低的省区通常与其他一些低值省区相邻.进一步由局部莫兰指数分析结果可知,考察期内中国畜牧业碳排放强度的空间集聚整体表现为“以低-低集聚为主、高-高集聚为辅”的“一主一次”格局,二者省区数量之和所占比重从未低于80%;同时,各个省区畜牧业碳排放强度的集聚状态已趋于稳定,整体呈现“低者恒低、高者恒高”的特征.
3.2.1 政府政策制定强化区域统筹,差异化引导畜禽生产减排降碳.鉴于目前各省区畜牧业碳排放强度表现出较大差异,政府在减排目标的设计及相关支持政策的制定上应强化区域统筹并兼顾公平与效率.具体而言,对于畜牧业碳排放强度较高的西北地区,应重点推广节能减排技术,优化饲养结构,提高饲料转化率;而对于畜牧业碳排放强度相对较低的东南地区,则应鼓励其进一步探索高效、环保的畜牧业生产模式.
3.2.2 不断优化畜禽饲养结构,充分保障肉、蛋、奶的有效供给.考虑到不同牲畜品种的温室气体排放水平存在区别,实践中应不断优化畜禽饲养结构,增加低碳牲畜饲养量,积极探索建立畜产品碳标签制度,引导消费者选择碳足迹较低产品,通过市场需求推动畜禽饲养方式与饲养结构转变.而在进行结构调整的实践过程中,需充分保障各种肉类、蛋类以及奶制品的有效供给,避免出现“肉荒”“蛋荒”以及“奶荒”.
3.2.3 制定针对性减排策略,强化畜牧业碳排放监管.对于牛、羊饲养碳排放强度省际差异缩小这一良好现象,应积极总结经验模式并将其推广到其他畜禽养殖部门;而对于生猪饲养碳排放强度省际差异扩大的问题,则应深入分析其背后成因并制定针对性策略措施,如改进饲养管理模式、优化饲料配方,以减少温室气体排放.此外,应构建更为严格的碳排放监管体系,鼓励社会大众参与监督,切实确保中国畜牧业碳排放得到有效控制并持续降低.
3.2.4 建立畜牧业碳排放监测网络,实时评估并因地施策.建立全国性畜牧业碳排放监测网络,基于各地监测结果制定差异化减排策略.其中,对于低-低集聚区,重点在于维持和优化现有减排成效;对于高-高集聚区,则需通过政策引导和资金支持促进技术革新,推进畜牧业生产向绿色低碳转型.与此同时,还应鼓励区域内外的技术和经验交流,切实提升全国整体减排效果.
  • 国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BGL189)
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2025年第45卷第3期
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  • 接收时间:2024-08-22
  • 首发时间:2026-03-18
  • 出版时间:2025-03-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-22
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    中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,WTO与湖北发展研究中心,湖北 武汉 430073

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
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genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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