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Article(id=1241057214522249483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1241057209744945780, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1725811200000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773820697670, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1747670400000, pubDateStr=2025-05-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773820697670, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773820697670, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773820697670, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241057209744945780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='5', pageStart='2369', pageEnd='2960', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773820696530, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773820837005, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241057798994325889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1241057209744945780, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241057798994325890, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1241057209744945780, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2952, endPage=2960, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241057214794879261, articleId=1241057214522249483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Quantitative analysis of the enforcement on the autonomous acceptanceFrom a perspective of the correlation between administrative penalty and environmental quality., columnId=1234106417825772207, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Environmental Impact Assessment and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of inspection and enforcement on the autonomous acceptance system towards regional environmental qualities, 47870public administrative penalty cases of illegal autonomous acceptance from 2018 to 2023 have been collected. Correlation analysis has been conducted on simulated environmental qualities based on penalty cases with real regional environmental qualities on 13 provinces that had been national warned for bad environmental qualities. Research found a significant correlation between combined autonomous acceptance and general enforcement with environmental qualities. A goodness of fit at R2=0.8051was found when bringing the percentage of autonomous acceptance cases over all administrative penalty cases as the second variable besides average penalty frequency. Yet found no significant correlation between general environmental enforcement and environmental qualities. Therefore, it was suggested that the inspection and enforcement on autonomous acceptance system leveraged more impact on environmental qualities than general environmental inspection and enforcement. The case analysis found that there was no significant difference in the fine amount for cases of "fraud" in autonomous acceptance compared to other cases. Legal analysis has found that there was a certain degree of functional overlap between autonomous acceptance and Pollutant discharge permit system, but there were still significant differences between the two in terms of regulatory objects and regulatory content.

, correspAuthors=Mu-yuan LIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Mu-yuan LIU, Wu-chen YANG, Jian ZHANG, Zhong LONG, Yun TIAN, Huang-rong ZHONG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1241057217751863809, articleId=1241057214522249483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=环保自主验收行政处罚案件量化分析——基于自主验收监管执法和环境质量相关性的视角, columnId=1234106419604157142, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=环境影响评价与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为研究自主验收制度对于监管执法的支撑作用，量化分析自主验收监管执法对于区域环境质量的影响，本研究不完全统计了自主验收制度实施后2018~2023年间全国47870件自主验收行政处罚案件，结合同期全国大气、水环境质量，模拟自主验收监管执法对13个被多次通报地市环境质量较差的省份的环境质量影响.研究发现，将自主验收案件占比纳入模拟的预测值和环境质量通报频次显著相关，拟合优度达到0.8051，而不考虑自主验收行政处罚占比的预测值与环境质量通报频次不具有相关性，针对自主验收事项的行政处罚对于提升整体生态环境质量的效果可能高于宏观、一般行政处罚.案情分析发现，对自主验收“弄虚作假”案件的处罚额与其他自主验收案件处罚额没有明显差别.法理分析发现，自主验收和排污许可制存在一定功能重叠，但在监管对象和监管内容上两者仍有明显差异.

, correspAuthors=刘牧远, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 责任作者，工程师，
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刘牧远（1991-），男，北京人，工程师，硕士，主要从事生态环境监管执法研究.发表论文3篇..

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刘牧远（1991-），男，北京人，工程师，硕士，主要从事生态环境监管执法研究.发表论文3篇..

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刘牧远（1991-），男，北京人，工程师，硕士，主要从事生态环境监管执法研究.发表论文3篇..

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Data of relevant provinces during 2018~2023

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省（区）持证企业数量（个）面积（km2）设区地市数（个）年均降水量（m3/km2）年均地表水资源（m3/km2）行政处罚案件（万件）自主验收案件（件）
河北22837187159145633334825110.21294
山西969715669811571117496052.5417
内蒙古7465119611314299167309311.7451
辽宁11056148084147556501991761.6628
吉林704719023497305331802790.7288
黑龙江6396439703126554171517620.4241
江苏3177310237813104315028348399680
安徽147621396151612247674729071.9637
山东36349158219167889171252227.43927
河南21755166785158238831735245.8403
广东3606317424621180640010523747.913405
陕西7546205629107607671869482.4272
新疆5276164001614158917482370.8322
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223112184821, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2018~2023年间各省（区）相关数据

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省（区）持证企业数量（个）面积（km2）设区地市数（个）年均降水量（m3/km2）年均地表水资源（m3/km2）行政处罚案件（万件）自主验收案件（件）
河北22837187159145633334825110.21294
山西969715669811571117496052.5417
内蒙古7465119611314299167309311.7451
辽宁11056148084147556501991761.6628
吉林704719023497305331802790.7288
黑龙江6396439703126554171517620.4241
江苏3177310237813104315028348399680
安徽147621396151612247674729071.9637
山东36349158219167889171252227.43927
河南21755166785158238831735245.8403
广东3606317424621180640010523747.913405
陕西7546205629107607671869482.4272
新疆5276164001614158917482370.8322
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223225430018, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Relevant provinces’ environmental qualities predictive values and recorded notifications

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江江苏安徽山东河南广东陕西新疆
ω2.652.230.241.141.270.460.691.111.65.320.121.240.22
ω'3.373.710.634.485.242.757.413.718.493.702.091.400.87
通报34353176341126443205
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223363842064, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

各省固定污染源影响环境质量预测值和通报次数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江江苏安徽山东河南广东陕西新疆
ω2.652.230.241.141.270.460.691.111.65.320.121.240.22
ω'3.373.710.634.485.242.757.413.718.493.702.091.400.87
通报34353176341126443205
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223552585759, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Spearman’s correlation on coefficient of environmental qualities predictive values

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量相关系数r样本量nt检验自由度df临界值P value
ω0.912137.356110.560<0.05
ω′0.359131.276110.560>0.05
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223720357939, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

固定污染源影响环境质量预测值相关性分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量相关系数r样本量nt检验自由度df临界值P value
ω0.912137.356110.560<0.05
ω′0.359131.276110.560>0.05
), ArticleFig(id=1241057223921684548, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Environmental qualities predictive values and relevant data of year 2024

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省（区）处罚案件自主验收案件案件占比（%）合计通报ω
河北1431191.331818.08
山西1911834.34231.12
内蒙古853242.8140.45
辽宁1038838.0070.86
吉林447419.1770.89
黑龙江355236.4860.48
江苏413947411.45111.41
浙江353699928.2530.26
安徽2333552.36121.28
山东24821747.01243.61
河南3174270.85487.95
四川1450724.9782.21
云南6907611.0130.14
陕西1327302.26101.12
新疆766425.4840.16
), ArticleFig(id=1241057224114622544, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1241057214522249483, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

2024年固定污染源影响环境质量预测值数据

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省（区）处罚案件自主验收案件案件占比（%）合计通报ω
河北1431191.331818.08
山西1911834.34231.12
内蒙古853242.8140.45
辽宁1038838.0070.86
吉林447419.1770.89
黑龙江355236.4860.48
江苏413947411.45111.41
浙江353699928.2530.26
安徽2333552.36121.28
山东24821747.01243.61
河南3174270.85487.95
四川1450724.9782.21
云南6907611.0130.14
陕西1327302.26101.12
新疆766425.4840.16
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环保自主验收行政处罚案件量化分析——基于自主验收监管执法和环境质量相关性的视角
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刘牧远 * , 杨雾晨 , 张健 , 隆重 , 田蕴 , 钟黄蓉
中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025,45(5): 2952-2960
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中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025, 45(5): 2952-2960
环保自主验收行政处罚案件量化分析——基于自主验收监管执法和环境质量相关性的视角
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刘牧远* , 杨雾晨, 张健, 隆重, 田蕴, 钟黄蓉
作者信息
  • 生态环境部环境工程评估中心，北京 100041

    • 刘牧远（1991-），男，北京人，工程师，硕士，主要从事生态环境监管执法研究.发表论文3篇..

通讯作者:

* 责任作者，工程师，
Quantitative analysis of the enforcement on the autonomous acceptanceFrom a perspective of the correlation between administrative penalty and environmental quality.
Mu-yuan LIU* , Wu-chen YANG, Jian ZHANG, Zhong LONG, Yun TIAN, Huang-rong ZHONG
Affiliations
  • Appraisal Center for Environment & Engineering, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100041, China
出版时间: 2025-05-20
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摘要
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为研究自主验收制度对于监管执法的支撑作用，量化分析自主验收监管执法对于区域环境质量的影响，本研究不完全统计了自主验收制度实施后2018~2023年间全国47870件自主验收行政处罚案件，结合同期全国大气、水环境质量，模拟自主验收监管执法对13个被多次通报地市环境质量较差的省份的环境质量影响.研究发现，将自主验收案件占比纳入模拟的预测值和环境质量通报频次显著相关，拟合优度达到0.8051，而不考虑自主验收行政处罚占比的预测值与环境质量通报频次不具有相关性，针对自主验收事项的行政处罚对于提升整体生态环境质量的效果可能高于宏观、一般行政处罚.案情分析发现，对自主验收“弄虚作假”案件的处罚额与其他自主验收案件处罚额没有明显差别.法理分析发现，自主验收和排污许可制存在一定功能重叠，但在监管对象和监管内容上两者仍有明显差异.

环境管理  /  排污许可制  /  自主验收

In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of inspection and enforcement on the autonomous acceptance system towards regional environmental qualities, 47870public administrative penalty cases of illegal autonomous acceptance from 2018 to 2023 have been collected. Correlation analysis has been conducted on simulated environmental qualities based on penalty cases with real regional environmental qualities on 13 provinces that had been national warned for bad environmental qualities. Research found a significant correlation between combined autonomous acceptance and general enforcement with environmental qualities. A goodness of fit at R2=0.8051was found when bringing the percentage of autonomous acceptance cases over all administrative penalty cases as the second variable besides average penalty frequency. Yet found no significant correlation between general environmental enforcement and environmental qualities. Therefore, it was suggested that the inspection and enforcement on autonomous acceptance system leveraged more impact on environmental qualities than general environmental inspection and enforcement. The case analysis found that there was no significant difference in the fine amount for cases of "fraud" in autonomous acceptance compared to other cases. Legal analysis has found that there was a certain degree of functional overlap between autonomous acceptance and Pollutant discharge permit system, but there were still significant differences between the two in terms of regulatory objects and regulatory content.

environmental management  /  pollutant discharge permit system  /  autonomous acceptance
刘牧远, 杨雾晨, 张健, 隆重, 田蕴, 钟黄蓉. 环保自主验收行政处罚案件量化分析——基于自主验收监管执法和环境质量相关性的视角. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (5) : 2952 -2960 .
Mu-yuan LIU, Wu-chen YANG, Jian ZHANG, Zhong LONG, Yun TIAN, Huang-rong ZHONG. Quantitative analysis of the enforcement on the autonomous acceptanceFrom a perspective of the correlation between administrative penalty and environmental quality.[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (5) : 2952 -2960 .
正文
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自1998年《建设项目环境保护管理条例》（简称《条例》）明确生态环境主管部门应对建设项目开展竣工环境保护验收、将环境保护设施“三同时”落实情况纳入行政许可审核以来，竣工环境保护验收始终发挥着十分重要的作用.吕巍等[1]、张明等[2]从行业管理经验出发，指出验收工作衔接环评作用明显，是环境管理“最后一关”.2016年11月，国务院办公厅印发《控制污染物排放许可制实施方案》，明确要求将排污许可制建设为固定污染源环境管理的核心制度，作为企业守法、部门执法、社会监督的依据.翌年，为落实党中央、国务院简政放权精神，强化建设项目环境保护事中事后监管和责任追究，新《条例》于2017年7月以国务院令第682号公布施行，其中明确了环境保护设施验收工作由行政许可变更为自主验收，拉开了自主验收衔接排污许可制、固定污染源先申领排污许可、后自主验收的新时代.
学术研究方面.2020年排污许可证“应发尽发”后，由于自主验收和排污许可制均有衔接环评、事中事后监管的功能，社会和学界对于其政策影响开展了广泛的研究和讨论.几类主要方向和观点如下，第一类针对研究环境保护设施验收“降级”后的环境管理影响.例如战友等[3]通过分析广东省公布验收典型案例，康成芳[4]通过分析甘肃省项目验收抽查数据、孙晶[5]结合环境咨询经验，都指出存在企业主体意识淡薄、第三方机构能力参差不齐、监管力度有所下降等“降级”问题.第二类从排污许可“一证式”监管角度开展政策研究并涉及自主验收.例如王焕松等[6]分析排污许可证核发数据、董战峰等[7]着重分析政策衔接制度、张君臣[8]从法理角度分析环境影响评价、排污许可、自主验收三项制度的衔接和处罚，均指出环境影响评价和排污许可制现有问题会增加监管自主验收难度，进而影响证后监管效果，并且三项制度存在一定功能重叠，需要理顺衔接机制，甚至将自主验收要求纳入排污许可证管理.而环保从业人员也有发声，例如自主验收和排污许可制在“准产准排”、后续监管等方面存在功能重叠，应考虑改革或取消自主验收，引起业内较大反响.综上，从自主验收政策、一证式管理、从业人员实际体会角度，普遍认为自主验收存在能效不高、功能重叠的问题.
但自主验收制度是否应调整的议论需要跳出就政策论政策的角度，同样考虑对环境监管和环境质量的量化影响，而相关实证研究较少.郑石明[9]基于环境统计年鉴的污染物排放量和专家打分作为环境质量代理变量，以环保投资规模作为“三同时”政策力度的代理变量，以系统GMM矩阵估计方法进行回归分析，论证了2005~2014年间“三同时”制度相较于其他宏观环境政策，具有更加全域性、更显著的环境质量提升效果.并指出“因为‘三同时’制度注重从源头制止环境污染的产生，对控制环境污染效果明显”.但一是验收工作已变为自主验收，发生根本性改变.二是验收工作具有独立法条和罚则，模拟未能考虑环境监管执法的作用.三是基于污染物排放量和专家打分对环境质量的评估，难以替代实际监测数据的准确性.
因此基于实际环境质量监测数据、自主验收监管数据，开展自主验收制度是否仍与改革前的“三同时”制度同样具有全域、显著提升环境质量的研究，是现阶段缺少，且后续可以支撑完善、强化证后监管政策的重要一环.本研究从自主验收行政处罚和环境质量关联角度开展实证分析，通过不完全梳理各级生态环境部门公开的行政处罚案件，对比分析同时期水、大气环境质量排名数据，为自主验收制度与排污许可制衔接的讨论提供新视角.
1　数据与研究方法
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1.1　研究时段和区域
研究时段为自主验收制度完整实行的2018~2023年，研究区域覆盖2018~2023年间被生态环境部公开通报位列年度大气、水环境质量排名后20位地市频次达到3次及以上的13个省（区、市）.在稳健性检验中依通报情况扩大至15省（区）和2024年前三季度.
1.2　数据来源
大气、水环境质量数据来自生态环境部官网通报，自主验收行政处罚和生态环境行政处罚不完全统计数据来自各级地方生态环境部门官网及官方通报，各省年均降水量、多年平均地表水资源量等来自水利部中国水资源公报，经济类数据来自国家统计局国家数据平台，各省排污许可证持证排污单位数量来自生态环境部全国排污许可证管理信息公开平台（截至2024年7月底），相关文献资料来自中国知网.
1.3　自主验收行政处罚案件基本概括
法理依据方面，自主验收罚则为《条例》第二十三条.基本规定为未经验收或者验收不合格，或弄虚作假的情况，应处20万元以上100万元以下的罚款，逾期不改处100万元以上200万元以下的罚款.同时制定有双罚制.相比于近年来约6~8万元间的行政处罚平均罚额，起罚额明显更高，属于执法震慑力较强的监管领域.
处罚案件方面，2018~2023年，不完全统计各地公开的行政处罚决定书，自主验收行政处罚案共47870件，6a间平均罚款为22.35万元.整体呈现出案件数量和罚没款平稳下降的趋势，和生态环境行政处罚大趋势相符.案件累计数量排名前10省份依次是广东、江苏、浙江、山东、上海、河北、云南、福建、重庆、天津.
1.4　综合环境质量代理变量
各类研究普遍依研究方向和目标构建环境质量模型，例如郑石明[9]采用专家赋权的层次分析法计算环境质量.栾胜基等[10]注重环境问题累积效应，选取自然保护区面积占国土总面积的比例为环境质量的代理变量.徐永浩等[11]注重时空特征变化研究，基于遥感数据以归一化植被指数、湿度分量、地表湿度、裸土指数等反映生态环境质量.
为突显固定污染源监管执法对环境质量的长期影响，本研究参考杨传玺等[12]指出工业源污染物排放是流域环境质量的重要影响因素，李敏辉等[13]指出工业污染源布局对环境质量的巨大影响.排除降雪降水、农业生产周期、风沙输入、水利调度、中小规模畜禽养殖等可能在短期内对大气、水环境质量造成较大影响的非固定污染源因素.突出环境质量较差的程度和频次，以尽可能体现固定污染源对区域性的长期稳定影响.因此选取生态环境部2018~2023年全国重点城市1~12月（全年）大气、水环境质量通报中排名全国后20位地级市，共计220市（次）（2018年未公布具体城市水环境质量排名），作为反映各省长期、持续性环境质量代理变量，共涉及19个省（区、市）.
各省（区、市）被通报情况为河南44次、山西35次、河北34次、山东26次、陕西20次、辽宁17次、安徽11次、吉林6次、新疆5次、江苏4次、广东3次、内蒙古3次、黑龙江3次、湖北2次、天津2次、湖南2次、江西1次、四川1次、甘肃1次.江西、四川、甘肃、湖北、湖南、天津等省（市）的地市在6a间仅被通报1或2次，具有一定偶发性，且和固定污染源监管关联较少.例如兰州市在2023年遭遇近10a最强输入性风沙影响导致兰州全年大气质量下降.绵阳市2023年一监测站点在6月受到严重人为干扰，对当月6项污染物浓度进行了最大值替代惩罚，导致绵阳全年水环境数据下降.为提升统计结论科学性参考性，突出固定污染源环境影响，仅对公开通报地市大气、水环境质量较差3次及以上的省份开展分析，共有河南、山西、河北、山东、陕西、辽宁、安徽、吉林、新疆、江苏、广东、内蒙古、黑龙江等13省（区）.
1.5　模型设计
1.5.1　固定污染源影响环境质量预测值
构建固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω和ω'，预测值基本概念为实际污染排放强度和监管强度的比值，值越高预测环境质量越差.其中ω在监管强度中引入自主验收行政处罚占比数据，ω'不引入，仅考虑行政处罚数量.并以固定污染源数量、面积、地市数量等作为污染源排放强度代理变量，以径流量、降水量作为污染物扩散条件代理变量.即尽管影响环境质量的变量较多，但以面积气候以及监管强度等变量构建环境质量预测值可能对后续管理和研究具有参考意义，因此首先整合变量构建环境质量预测值，再与实际发生的环境质量较差通报情况进行对比分析.
则：
约分后：
以及
约分后：
式中：i描述各省；p为持证污染源数量；w为省内平均地表水资源量；a为省份面积；j为降水量；c为地级市数量；f为生态环境行政处罚案件数量；s为自主验收行政处罚案件数量；x为自由浮动正整数，用以将固定污染源影响环境质量预测值调整至[0.1~10]的范围区间.
假设各省固定污染源的平均排放量、平均对环境质量影响相似，污染源排放强度以省内固定污染源分散至省土地面积、省地市数量模拟.固定污染源数量取持排污许可证污染源数量（包括排污许可重点管理、排污许可简化管理）.原因在于尽管排污登记类污染源同属于排污许可管理，但环境影响较小[14].行政管理上持证污染源是各地生态环境部门主要监管对象，和行政处罚数据更具有对应关系.同时参考周景博等[15]指出许可重点管理单位与简化管理单位在污染排放量上并不存在清晰界限的统计结果，将持排污许可证污染源数量整体作为污染源代理变量.将持证污染源数量除以面积模拟每km2污染源密度.为进一步模拟现实污染源排放情况，将密度除以各省设区市数量（不包含与地级市同级的保护地区、特别行政区等弱工业、少工业区），模拟围绕地级市周边部署工业区的现实情形.因此各省平均固定污染源密度越高、地市越少，则污染源相对集中，污染源排放强度越高，反之固定污染源密度越低、地市越多，则污染源排放更加分散，强度更低.例如假设某两省污染源数量和省域面积相同，但地市数量分别为4和2，则污染源分布密集程度因地市数量不同，进而造成地市监测站环境质量监测数据差异，进而影响通报情况，示意见图1.
污染物扩散条件以平均降水量和平均地表水资源量模拟.目前尚无统一水、气污染物扩散条件计算方法和相关数据，参考王姝等[16]指出湿沉降是大气污染物沉降的主要类型之一，陈健等[17]核算降水对颗粒物具有显著沉降效应，黄康哲等[18]指出累积降雨量和径流量对污染物的控制作用要明显大于强降雨的短期激发作用.因此选取各省6a间平均降水量作为宏观水、气污染物扩散条件代理变量的主要参考.另外，水污染扩散受地表水资源量影响较大，但由于地表水资源量对大气污染物扩散影响较小，且近年来推动工业入园，废水排放愈发集中于部分水系，地表水资源量对水污染物扩散的影响相对受限，因此选取地表水资源量模拟污染物扩散条件但降低权重，设定权重为降水量的30%.
以每家持证固定污染源被行政处罚平均数作为某省行政处罚强度的代理变量，在ω模拟中纳入自主验收处罚案件的占比.同时，为避免某省自主验收行政处罚占比高但行政处罚强度低，可能影响环境质量的情况，ω式中仍将行政处罚强度作为约束固定污染源影响环境质量预测值的计算参数.
1.5.2　相关性检验
13省（区）相关数据如表1所示，计算得出固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω和ω'如表2所示.
由于13省（区）被通报环境质量较差地市数据样本量较小，故选取斯皮尔曼相关系数法，分别对ω与通报次数、ω′与通报次数进行相关性检验和显著性检验.原假设（H0）为ω值和ω′值与通报次数不相关，显著性水平设为0.05，n=13时双尾检验临界值为0.560.
计算结果显示，ω与通报次数相关性为0.912，P<0.05.而ω′与通报次数相关性为0.359，P>0.05.即综合考虑自主验收行政处罚占比的行政处罚强度与通报次数相关，而仅考虑行政处罚强度则与通报次数基本不存在相关性.计算结果见表3.
2　结果与讨论
收起
2.1　回归分析
将固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω与2018~2023年间被通报质量排名全国后20位地市频次进行线性回归分析，如图2所示.
线性回归显示，固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω与各省地市通报频次的拟合优度R2=0.8051.相关系分析和回归分析指出，对于固定污染源排放量较大、环境风险较高的地区，提升固定污染源的监管处罚强度，对整体生态环境质量的提升效果并不显著.而强化特定、细化监管领域的处罚强度，尤其是自主验收等能协助发现批建不符、建设或生产不规范、超排污许可总量等具有更大潜在环境影响力的领域，发挥特定监管领域“传递”、“放大”能效，可能对于提升整体生态环境质量有高于一般行政处罚的效果.
相比之下，固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω′与各省地市通报频次基本不存在相关性，依据行政处罚强度难以预测各省地市通报频次，散点图如图3所示.
值得注意的是，对比固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω和ω′，河南、广东2省的变化较为显著.广东的ω值降至ω′的6%，降幅最大，而河南是唯一ω值高于ω′值的省份，达到了ω′值的144%.对应实际情况分析，尽管河南2018~2023年间持证排污单位的处罚强度代理变量高达2.68，在13省（区）中排第4，但同期自主验收行政处罚占比仅0.7%，为13省（区）最低.相反，广东同期持证排污单位处罚强度代理变量为2.19，排在13省（区）第7，但自主验收行政处罚占比为17%，占比最高.将自主验收行政处罚占比纳入计算后河南、广东均预测出了更符合实际通报次数的数值.
2.2　稳健性检验
2.2.1　被解释变量的重新定义
上文采用生态环境部公开的2018~2023年大气、水环境质量通报排名全国后20位地级市频次作为反映固定污染源长期持续影响各省环境质量的代理变量.其数据均来自权威性较高的各省市国控大气、水断面监测站点.为避免国控站点覆盖范围不足的问题，采用各省生态环境厅公开的包含省级大气、水监测站点数据的各省生态环境状况公报数据计算平均达标率作为环境质量代理变量.
研究收集了13省（区）2018~2023年间的空气质量优良天数占比和地表水监测断面Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质占比合计156个数据，并将大气、断面达标占比做1：1加权计算各省6a间平均达标率.以斯皮尔曼相关系数计算，平均达标率与固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω相关性为r=-0.676，绝对值高于n=13时0.560的临界值，P<0.05.而仅关注行政处罚强度的固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω′依然与平均达标率无相关性.
对各省ω值与平均达标率做一元线性回归分析，结果显示对河南省以外的12省（区）拟合优度达到R2=0.629，解释变量的显著性不变.而河南省预测结果不佳可能因为其被通报次数和平均达标率排位差别较大.河南省被通报最多达到44次，为第2位山西省35次的125.7%，而省生态环境状况公报中河南平均达标率为13省（区）中的第10位，高于河北省、山西省、山东省.
2.2.2　被解释变量的样本扩充
在2018~2023年大气、水环境质量通报排名全国后20位地级市频次的基础上，将同期全国水环境质量排位后20~30地市数据纳入被解释变量（2018~2023年间生态环境部仅公布大气质量全国前、后20位，和水质量全国前、后30位地市）.环境质量代理变量样本由220个提升至270个，其中13省（区）以外的天津市被通报次数由2次增加至4次，但直辖市通报未精确至区（地市级），与其他省（区）地市通报信息处理方式不同，因此仍剔除处理.
采用斯皮尔曼相关系数法计算，环境质量代理变量样本扩充后与固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω相关性为r=0.824，高于n=13时0.560的临界值，P<0.05.对各省ω值与扩充后的解释变量做一元线性回归分析显示，13省（区）拟合优度达到R2=0.7836，解释变量的显著性不变.
2.2.3　样本变换
为进一步检验固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω与环境质量的关联，研究采取样本变换方法，将研究区间由2018~2023年变换为2024年1~9月，不完全统计全国2024年前三季度合计4.1万余件行政处罚案件和3千余件自主验收行政处罚案件.为扩充被解释变量样本数量，选取生态环境部公开的2024年1~9月间每月大气环境质量较差的10~20个地市，以及3季度中水环境质量较差的30个地市，合计200次通报.地市被通报次数在3次及以上的省（市）为16个，相较于2018~2023年数据，增加的省（市）包括天津、云南、四川，减少的省为广东.其中天津通报未精确至区（地市级），无法处理数据，仍剔除.同时假设径流量、降水量等影响污染物扩散的变量不变.变换样本后的具体数据如表4所示.
采用斯皮尔曼相关系数法计算，样本变换后，2024年前三季度固定污染源影响环境质量预测值ω和分月通报次数相关性为r=0.886，高于n=15时0.521的临界值，P<0.05.行政处罚强度与被通报次数仍无相关性.对变换样本后ω值与通报次数做一元线性回归分析显示，15省（区）拟合优度为R2=0.2407，拟合度较低，但剔除偏移量大的河北省后，拟合优度提升至R2=0.8708，解释变量的显著性不变.
河北2024年行政处罚案件数量相较于往年同期大幅下降造成固定污染源影响环境质量预测值显著高于其被通报次数.一种可能的解释是，2018~2023年间河北生态环境行政处罚强度显著高于全国其他省（市），促使企业守法水平不断提升，行政处罚对环境质量的提升效果已逼近极限，而受限于地形条件、输入性污染、非固定污染源或小散乱污染源等影响，被通报频次下降速度低于行政处罚下降速度.
2.3　自主验收行政处罚“弄虚作假”分析
修订后《条例》首次在自主验收违法条款和罚则条款中要求不得“弄虚作假”，将弄虚作假的行为提升至与环境保护设施未建成、未经验收或者验收不合格即投入生产等违法行为同等的违法严重性，明确强化打击主观造假的违法行为.
不完全统计2023年下达行政处罚决定书的4623件自主验收案件，其简要案情中包含自主验收工作“弄虚作假”“虚假验收”“验收造假”等表述的合计282件，占比6.1%.从罚款额看，282件行政处罚案件平均罚额20.57万元，仅比全部自主验收处罚平均罚额20.53万元高0.04万元.对弄虚作假类的“主观造假”违法行为的处罚额并未与其他违法行为作出明显区分，执行层面一定程度上有违以《条例》加强事中事后监管的制度设计.
2.4　排污许可制和自主验收的功能定位
在“事前事中监管”上排污许可制和自主验收存在部分功能重叠.《条例》《建设项目竣工环境保护验收暂行办法》等文件明确了排污单位申领排污许可证后方可进行调试、竣工环保验收监测及自主验收程序.如果“准排”和“准产”产生了模糊边界，那么顺序靠前、效力更高的行政许可必定对顺序靠后、且排污单位自主开展的验收工作产生替代性，社会和行业的广泛讨论一定程度上已经印证了该观点.
在衔接环境影响评价上排污许可制和自主验收存在功能差异.2018年印发的《排污许可证申请与核发技术规范　总则》明确了排污许可证的核发内容以生产设施、排放口、监测要求、产量、防治设施、原辅料等“事中事后”监管项为主，2023年印发《排污许可证质量核查技术规范》进一步明确了这一点.而2021年印发《关于进一步完善建设项目环境保护“三同时”及竣工环境保护自主验收监管工作机制的意见》则明确了自主验收的验收对象应聚焦“三同时”监管重点，相较于排污许可证核发、执法检查，应额外包括建设项目设计、施工、生产的“事前事中事后”全流程环境风险管理.可以说尽管在“事中事后”监管功能上，建设项目自主验收和排污单位持证排污仍有重叠部分，但上述文件明确了两者在监管对象（建设项目和排污单位）以及监管内容上的差异.
在“事后监管”上自主验收监管执法具有独特价值.从执法工作的主观认识上，自主验收是体现企业对治污控污投入程度的关键一环，尤其是通过开展自主验收专项检查等执法工作，可从排污源头、生产起始管控生态环境风险，有助于在长期监管中避免和固定污染源陷入“猫鼠游戏”困境.从对环境质量的影响上可以看出，在侧重于固定污染源监管，综合模拟处罚强度和自主验收行政处罚占比时，自主验收行政处罚占比较高的省份更有可能具有较好的环境质量.
3　结论与建议
收起
3.1　结论
通过构建固定污染源影响环境质量预测模型和预测值ω与ω′，并与各省环境质量通报频次进行相关性分析发现，将自主验收案件占比纳入模拟的ω值和通报频次显著相关，拟合优度达到0.8051，而不考虑自主验收行政处罚占比的ω′值与环境质量通报频次不具有相关性.在研究时段和区域内，针对自主验收事项的行政处罚对于提升整体生态环境质量的效果可能高于宏观、一般行政处罚.案情分析发现，对自主验收“弄虚作假”案件的处罚额与其他自主验收案件处罚额没有明显差别.法理分析发现，自主验收和排污许可制存在一定功能重叠，但在监管对象和监管内容上两者仍有明显差异.
本研究对固定污染源影响环境质量的模拟仍存在一些不足.一类是参数和变量的丰度仍难以描述区域环境质量的复杂本质和动态性.例如固定污染源达标排放情况对环境质量产生何种影响？省份间污染物交叉输入如何模拟？排污许可登记类和未纳入登记管理的污染源如何影响环境质量？二类是自主验收的自身特质可能影响环境质量且难以模拟.例如大部分污染源仅自主验收一次，当执法部门对污染源完成全覆盖检查后，后续自主验收行政处罚数量自然减少是否仍会影响环境质量？逾期验收是较为常见的违法行为，这类案件的不同违法时间跨度所造成的环境质量影响如何量化？这些问题对精细化分析自主验收类行政处罚案件和其他类生态环境行政处罚案件对环境质量的影响具有重要意义，值得在未来研究中深入研讨.
3.2　建议
3.2.1　注重对自主验收的监管执法
建议生态环境部门注重开展自主验收监管执法.一是宏观监管上设立指标.根据各地方的持证污染源数量和密度，合理设置自主验收行政处罚占比的预期值.持证污染源数量和密度越高的省份、地市，越应设立较高的自主验收行政处罚占比指标，注重发挥自主验收监管的提前参与、执法前置效应，进一步强化监管执法效能，助力提升生态环境质量.同时通过开展自主验收监管执法，掌握污染源在环境影响评价、排污许可制、自主验收等制度衔接上存在的问题，强化监管执法部门和环评许可部门间的信息互联互通.二是专项检查提升覆盖.注重组织开展自主验收专项检查，逐步实现新增持证污染源全覆盖、现有重点污染源全覆盖的自主验收检查.以自主验收作为抓手之一，提升污染源“事前事中”监管强度，实现污染源“事前事中事后”全流程监管.三是日常执法检查上查遗补漏.在日常“双随机”等全面性检查中，除参考排污许可执法检查通用清单中的检查事项外，应在检查排污许可证的真实性、有效性的同时，一并检查自主验收相关情况，抓好排污许可制和自主验收的衔接，提升日常检查能效.
3.2.2　完善细化自主验收行政处罚自由裁量权
建议生态环境部门适时指导各地方，通过裁量权的修正和细化，回应现有不足.一是针对目前对弄虚作假处罚额区别不大的现象，建议进一步区分主观造假和验收意识欠缺，加强对主观造假、弄虚作假的惩处，落实《条例》精神，保障过罚相当，提升执法队伍公信力.二是针对自主验收违法起罚额较高的情况，建议研究制定裁量权关于自主验收违法行为的从轻、减轻规定，衔接环评制度改革方向，对编制报告书和报告表的建设项目分类处罚，在罚款额度作有序衔接.对报告书项目维持原有的罚款额度，对环境影响小的报告表项目适当降低起罚额，避免过罚不当，提升处罚精细化水平.
基金
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  • 生态环境部财政预算项目(102144210240000009007)
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2025年第45卷第5期
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  • 接收时间：2024-09-09
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-05-20
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  • 收稿日期：2024-09-09
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生态环境部财政预算项目(102144210240000009007)
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    生态环境部环境工程评估中心，北京 100041

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