Article(id=1240689618467738176, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1240689590315569990, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1720540800000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773733055940, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1739980800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773733055940, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773733055940, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773733055940, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240689590315569990, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, year='2025', volume='45', issue='2', pageStart='593', pageEnd='1184', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773733049228, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773733150042, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240690013239825123, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1240689590315569990, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240690013239825124, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, issueId=1240689590315569990, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1148, endPage=1161, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240689618769728097, articleId=1240689618467738176, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=EN, title=Analysis of implicit air pollutant transfer and drivers of interprovincial trade in China, columnId=1234106417825772207, journalTitle=China Environmental Science, columnName=Environmental Impact Assessment and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This paper employed the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution of the embodied pollutant emission patterns in China's interprovincial trade in 2012, 2015, and 2017. The structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model was applied to identify the socio-economic factors affecting the changes in pollutant emissions. The results showed that the areas with net pollutant export gradually shifted from those which have developed economic on the east coast to those have rich resources in the northwest. Moreover, the gap between provinces in net imports and exports of pollutants decreased. For example, the gap in SO2 from 2012 to 2017 reduced by 63%. In addition, the increase of final demand was the main driver of the increase of emissions, with an average contribution of up to 669% to the emissions of the four air pollutants. The optimization of the energy consumption structure and the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP effectively curbed the momentum of emissions increase. The average contribution of the energy consumption structure to the four pollutants decreased from -220.75% to -546.25%. Although the impact of production technologies is minor, its impact on emissions has shifted from a facilitating to a dampening effect. This study provides new insights for improving energy efficiency and developing a clean energy mix, which contributes to developing measures to mitigate demand-side pollutant emissions and coordinated regional trade policies.

, correspAuthors=De-lin FANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Xuan-hui LU, Xuan-yi JIN, De-lin FANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1240689626306891796, articleId=1240689618467738176, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, language=CN, title=省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析, columnId=1234106419604157142, journalTitle=中国环境科学, columnName=环境影响评价与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

利用多区域投入产出模型,阐明2012~2017年中国省际贸易隐含污染物排放的时空演变格局,结合结构分解分析从能源相关角度识别影响污染物排放变动的社会经济因素.研究发现,污染物净出口地区逐渐从东部沿海经济发达地区转向西北方资源丰富区,并且省份之间污染物的净进出口量差距在减少,以SO2为例,2012~2017年差距减小了63%.此外,最终需求水平的上升是排放增长的主要驱动力,研究期间对4种大气污染物排放的平均贡献率可达669%;能源消费结构优化与单位GDP能耗降低有效遏制了排放增长的势头,能源消费结构对4种污染物的平均贡献率从-220.75%降低到-546.25%;生产技术影响小,但其对排放的影响由促进转为抑制.本文为提高能源效率和发展清洁能源结构提供新见解,有助于制定缓解需求侧污染物排放措施,协调地区贸易政策.

, correspAuthors=房德琳, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*责任作者,副教授,
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陆轩慧(2002-),男,北京师范大学地理科学学部本科毕业生. .

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箭头的粗细代表转移的量的大小;审图号:GS(2023)2762,下同

, figureFileSmall=fBjk06qqxq1e7JVoWPdBRQ==, figureFileBig=d3R+ajzpqfgGtBoiMogEZg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240689630274703557, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=The contribution rates of the effects of four pollutants, figureFileSmall=wqaaYxC5ivdFYUKLEKTgvg==, figureFileBig=e5B+uDnDapPJCkfVX+Rvjg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240689630413115594, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=图2, caption=4种污染物各效应贡献率

e为能源消费结构效应∆q为单位GDP能耗效应∆L为生产技术效应∆F为最终需求水平

, figureFileSmall=wqaaYxC5ivdFYUKLEKTgvg==, figureFileBig=e5B+uDnDapPJCkfVX+Rvjg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240689630517973200, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=The three-year average influence coefficient of each province, figureFileSmall=W6kmnppO+Ci3UziwtMSIHg==, figureFileBig=bj/9rbTPz0L0+i306QUE9Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240689630635413719, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=图3, caption=各省份三年平均影响力系数, figureFileSmall=W6kmnppO+Ci3UziwtMSIHg==, figureFileBig=bj/9rbTPz0L0+i306QUE9Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240689630740271326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Department mapping relationship

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
部门分类污染物排放数据投入产出数据能源消耗数据
水,电力,热力的生产和供应电力
供热
民用燃煤
电力,热力的生产和供应
电气机械和器材
水的生产和供应
水利,环境和公共设施管理
自来水生产及供应
电力,蒸汽和热水的生产和供应
电气设备及机械
工业锅炉工业锅炉非金属矿和其他矿采选产品非金属矿产开采与选矿
其他矿产开采及选矿
焦化焦化煤炭采选产品煤炭开采与选矿
金属矿采选冶炼制造钢铁金属矿采选产品
金属制品
金属冶炼和压延加工品
金属制品,机械和设备修理服务
黑色金属采矿和选矿
黑色金属的冶炼和压制
有色金属开采与选矿
有色金属的冶炼和压制
金属制品
普通机械
石化化工石化化工石油,炼焦产品和核燃料加工品石油加工及炼焦业
油气储运油气储运石油和天然气开采产品
燃气生产和供应
燃气生产和供应业
石油和天然气开采
工业涂装工业涂装非金属矿物制品非金属矿物制品业
印刷印染印刷印染造纸印刷和文教体育用品造纸及纸制品业
印刷和记录介质复制
建筑建筑涂料
水泥
建筑建造,建筑
其他工业制造业行业其他工业行业木材加工品和家具
纺织品
纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品
废品废料
专用设备
其他制造产品
木材和竹子的伐木和运输
特殊用途设备
纺织工业
服装和其他纤维制品
木材加工,竹子,甘蔗,棕榈和稻草制品
产品皮革,毛皮,羽绒及相关产品
家具制作
其他制造业
料废:指废弃的材料或废品.
化学纤维
塑料制品
橡胶制品
化学产品民用化学品使用化学产品化工原料及化工产品
其他民用源其他民用源
民用生物质燃烧
住宿和餐饮
食品和烟草
信息传输,软件和信息技术服务
卫生和社会工作
金融
房地产
租赁和商务服务
科学研究和技术服务
批发和零售
文化,体育和娱乐
公共管理,社会保障和社会组织
居民服务,修理和其他服务
教育
通信设备,计算机和其他电子设备
仪器仪表
食品加工
食品生产
饮料生产
烟草加工
医药品
文化,教育和体育用品
批发,零售贸易及餐饮服务
产品仪器,仪表,文化和办公机械
电子及电讯设备
交通运输,仓储和邮政汽油车
柴油车
摩托车
非道路移动源
交通运输,仓储和邮政
通用设备
交通运输设备
运输设备
运输,仓储,邮电服务
农林牧渔产品和服务化肥施用
畜牧养殖
农林牧渔产品和服务农,林,牧,渔,水利
), ArticleFig(id=1240689630878683363, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

部门映射关系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
部门分类污染物排放数据投入产出数据能源消耗数据
水,电力,热力的生产和供应电力
供热
民用燃煤
电力,热力的生产和供应
电气机械和器材
水的生产和供应
水利,环境和公共设施管理
自来水生产及供应
电力,蒸汽和热水的生产和供应
电气设备及机械
工业锅炉工业锅炉非金属矿和其他矿采选产品非金属矿产开采与选矿
其他矿产开采及选矿
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农林牧渔产品和服务化肥施用
畜牧养殖
农林牧渔产品和服务农,林,牧,渔,水利
), ArticleFig(id=1240689630979346662, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Emissions of four air pollutants per unit of energy consumption in 30 provinces(t/tce)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
201220152017201220152017201220152017201220152017
北京107979551321934241552186
天津937070322116221512643219
河北12594946644364631261095942
山西1481079698695470504021814790
内蒙古21014813783594458423222012472
辽宁1049288433423292316795535
吉林130114118644937423426946144
黑龙江158129117695545473933976346
上海725455241281796663530
江苏14710695503122332115984127
浙江148109107483022292014774726
安徽176134127755645473630724432
福建1078983433024282017814128
江西13093858852405132261336546
山东14112612161533740372714410056
河南155126998763415742281026732
湖北8579755850393935281859466
湖南9986748165515445371279768
广东1199792363025221917825137
广西11183766646364229241357654
海南947974232420141513495037
重庆89848154373036242126914989
四川8270664830243020161085432
贵州609810052119116378585181275226
云南113888370584950413512810484
陕西137999778543952372721010262
甘肃1401071047554425338301067460
青海1027569664836493526584032
宁夏2021289763412944282020911072
新疆136111965343373731261127956
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631075815660, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

30省份单位能耗4种大气污染物排放量(t/tce)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
201220152017201220152017201220152017201220152017
北京107979551321934241552186
天津937070322116221512643219
河北12594946644364631261095942
山西1481079698695470504021814790
内蒙古21014813783594458423222012472
辽宁1049288433423292316795535
吉林130114118644937423426946144
黑龙江158129117695545473933976346
上海725455241281796663530
江苏14710695503122332115984127
浙江148109107483022292014774726
安徽176134127755645473630724432
福建1078983433024282017814128
江西13093858852405132261336546
山东14112612161533740372714410056
河南155126998763415742281026732
湖北8579755850393935281859466
湖南9986748165515445371279768
广东1199792363025221917825137
广西11183766646364229241357654
海南947974232420141513495037
重庆89848154373036242126914989
四川8270664830243020161085432
贵州609810052119116378585181275226
云南113888370584950413512810484
陕西137999778543952372721010262
甘肃1401071047554425338301067460
青海1027569664836493526584032
宁夏2021289763412944282020911072
新疆136111965343373731261127956
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631197450479, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Number of sectors with a negative contribution to the structural effects of energy consumption

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份/污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
2015301367354392
2017311381371394
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631323279601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

能源消费结构效应贡献值为负的部门数量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份/污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
2015301367354392
2017311381371394
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631444914422, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Energy consumption per unit of output in 30 provinces

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区201220152017省/市/区201220152017
北京4.963.732.64河南13.048.727.50
天津12.479.6612.06湖北21.9011.5510.08
河北25.6225.0223.31湖南16.1311.5411.47
山西33.2732.7430.34广东7.845.264.92
内蒙古23.4122.9426.61广西17.9513.0014.53
辽宁18.6719.1125.54海南15.8612.7611.30
吉林18.5714.4515.42重庆19.4110.448.86
黑龙江19.0719.2023.95四川18.1115.4611.62
上海8.998.176.96贵州66.2316.6112.81
江苏7.616.656.43云南23.7416.3113.28
浙江6.936.135.44陕西16.4814.1610.58
安徽12.649.117.46甘肃22.8618.8018.52
福建10.958.216.48青海29.6728.4128.33
江西10.6810.879.50宁夏31.5731.4437.41
山东12.868.538.10新疆33.2329.5429.31
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631545577721, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

30省份单位产出能耗(10-6tce/亿元)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区201220152017省/市/区201220152017
北京4.963.732.64河南13.048.727.50
天津12.479.6612.06湖北21.9011.5510.08
河北25.6225.0223.31湖南16.1311.5411.47
山西33.2732.7430.34广东7.845.264.92
内蒙古23.4122.9426.61广西17.9513.0014.53
辽宁18.6719.1125.54海南15.8612.7611.30
吉林18.5714.4515.42重庆19.4110.448.86
黑龙江19.0719.2023.95四川18.1115.4611.62
上海8.998.176.96贵州66.2316.6112.81
江苏7.616.656.43云南23.7416.3113.28
浙江6.936.135.44陕西16.4814.1610.58
安徽12.649.117.46甘肃22.8618.8018.52
福建10.958.216.48青海29.6728.4128.33
江西10.6810.879.50宁夏31.5731.4437.41
山东12.868.538.10新疆33.2329.5429.31
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631663018241, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

The effect of energy consumption per unit of GDP on the construction sector in Guizhou Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标污染物
NOxPM10
年份2015201720152017
贡献值(t)747496334285425814318052
贡献率(%)95829586
指标污染物
PM2.5SO2
年份2015201720152017
贡献值(t)32552024358016965041264706
贡献率(%)96889891
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631809818886, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

单位GDP能耗效应对贵州省建筑部门的影响

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标污染物
NOxPM10
年份2015201720152017
贡献值(t)747496334285425814318052
贡献率(%)95829586
指标污染物
PM2.5SO2
年份2015201720152017
贡献值(t)32552024358016965041264706
贡献率(%)96889891
), ArticleFig(id=1240689631931453702, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 6, caption=

Sectors with the highest contribution of production technology effects in 2015 and 2017

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标2015
污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
省份浙江江苏浙江江苏
部门建筑建筑建筑建筑
贡献值(t)52756154069377120064
贡献率(%)16%21%12%68%
指标2017
污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
省份广东江苏江苏广东
部门建筑建筑建筑建筑
贡献值(t)49580-26400-17894244540
贡献率(%)52%-101%-72%80%
), ArticleFig(id=1240689632044699914, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

2015年,2017年生产技术效应贡献值最大部门

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标2015
污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
省份浙江江苏浙江江苏
部门建筑建筑建筑建筑
贡献值(t)52756154069377120064
贡献率(%)16%21%12%68%
指标2017
污染物NOxPM10PM2.5SO2
省份广东江苏江苏广东
部门建筑建筑建筑建筑
贡献值(t)49580-26400-17894244540
贡献率(%)52%-101%-72%80%
), ArticleFig(id=1240689632136974608, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=EN, label=Table 7, caption=

Influence coefficient for 30 provinces

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区201220152017
北京0.9330.9010.976
天津0.9710.9760.968
河北1.0921.0121.072
山西0.9740.9730.947
内蒙古0.8860.9130.936
辽宁1.1151.0150.921
吉林1.0391.0240.959
黑龙江0.8650.8510.895
上海0.9120.8410.841
江苏1.0511.0591.048
浙江1.1031.1411.041
安徽1.1151.2171.202
福建0.9531.0080.984
江西1.1451.0741.096
山东1.2301.1661.239
河南1.1321.1841.180
湖北0.9580.9951.041
湖南0.9860.9840.965
广东0.8840.9450.906
广西0.9260.9280.985
海南0.9130.9390.974
重庆1.0261.0791.023
四川1.0401.0591.037
贵州0.9440.9750.939
云南0.9470.9660.964
陕西0.9270.9190.985
甘肃1.0031.0310.958
青海0.9290.8970.984
宁夏1.0441.0591.026
新疆0.9580.8700.906
), ArticleFig(id=1240689632342495509, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1234093305789726721, articleId=1240689618467738176, language=CN, label=表7, caption=

2012年,2015年及2017年30个省份影响力系数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
省/市/区201220152017
北京0.9330.9010.976
天津0.9710.9760.968
河北1.0921.0121.072
山西0.9740.9730.947
内蒙古0.8860.9130.936
辽宁1.1151.0150.921
吉林1.0391.0240.959
黑龙江0.8650.8510.895
上海0.9120.8410.841
江苏1.0511.0591.048
浙江1.1031.1411.041
安徽1.1151.2171.202
福建0.9531.0080.984
江西1.1451.0741.096
山东1.2301.1661.239
河南1.1321.1841.180
湖北0.9580.9951.041
湖南0.9860.9840.965
广东0.8840.9450.906
广西0.9260.9280.985
海南0.9130.9390.974
重庆1.0261.0791.023
四川1.0401.0591.037
贵州0.9440.9750.939
云南0.9470.9660.964
陕西0.9270.9190.985
甘肃1.0031.0310.958
青海0.9290.8970.984
宁夏1.0441.0591.026
新疆0.9580.8700.906
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省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析
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陆轩慧 , 金轩怡 , 房德琳 *
中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025,45(2): 1148-1161
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中国环境科学 | 环境影响评价与管理 2025, 45(2): 1148-1161
省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析
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陆轩慧 , 金轩怡, 房德琳*
作者信息
  • 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
  • 陆轩慧(2002-),男,北京师范大学地理科学学部本科毕业生. .

通讯作者:

*责任作者,副教授,
Analysis of implicit air pollutant transfer and drivers of interprovincial trade in China
Xuan-hui LU , Xuan-yi JIN, De-lin FANG*
Affiliations
  • State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
出版时间: 2025-02-20
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利用多区域投入产出模型,阐明2012~2017年中国省际贸易隐含污染物排放的时空演变格局,结合结构分解分析从能源相关角度识别影响污染物排放变动的社会经济因素.研究发现,污染物净出口地区逐渐从东部沿海经济发达地区转向西北方资源丰富区,并且省份之间污染物的净进出口量差距在减少,以SO2为例,2012~2017年差距减小了63%.此外,最终需求水平的上升是排放增长的主要驱动力,研究期间对4种大气污染物排放的平均贡献率可达669%;能源消费结构优化与单位GDP能耗降低有效遏制了排放增长的势头,能源消费结构对4种污染物的平均贡献率从-220.75%降低到-546.25%;生产技术影响小,但其对排放的影响由促进转为抑制.本文为提高能源效率和发展清洁能源结构提供新见解,有助于制定缓解需求侧污染物排放措施,协调地区贸易政策.

省际贸易  /  大气污染  /  MRIO模型  /  结构分解分析

This paper employed the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution of the embodied pollutant emission patterns in China's interprovincial trade in 2012, 2015, and 2017. The structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model was applied to identify the socio-economic factors affecting the changes in pollutant emissions. The results showed that the areas with net pollutant export gradually shifted from those which have developed economic on the east coast to those have rich resources in the northwest. Moreover, the gap between provinces in net imports and exports of pollutants decreased. For example, the gap in SO2 from 2012 to 2017 reduced by 63%. In addition, the increase of final demand was the main driver of the increase of emissions, with an average contribution of up to 669% to the emissions of the four air pollutants. The optimization of the energy consumption structure and the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP effectively curbed the momentum of emissions increase. The average contribution of the energy consumption structure to the four pollutants decreased from -220.75% to -546.25%. Although the impact of production technologies is minor, its impact on emissions has shifted from a facilitating to a dampening effect. This study provides new insights for improving energy efficiency and developing a clean energy mix, which contributes to developing measures to mitigate demand-side pollutant emissions and coordinated regional trade policies.

interprovincial trade  /  air pollution  /  MRIO model  /  structural decomposition analysis
陆轩慧, 金轩怡, 房德琳. 省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (2) : 1148 -1161 .
Xuan-hui LU, Xuan-yi JIN, De-lin FANG. Analysis of implicit air pollutant transfer and drivers of interprovincial trade in China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (2) : 1148 -1161 .
近年来,随着中国人口增加与经济发展,大气污染物问题日益严重,对人民生命健康造成严重威胁,特别是大量燃烧煤炭所产生的氮氧化物(NOx),二氧化硫(SO2),可吸入颗粒物(PM10)与细颗粒物(PM2.5)等.这些污染物既是造成空气污染、酸雨、雾霾等环境问题的主要因素,也是导致呼吸系统疾病,心血管疾病等健康问题的罪魁祸首,2000~2016年间中国可被归因为PM2.5污染的死亡人数达3080万[1].跨界传输让区域性大气污染物的交织和传播更加复杂,治理难度较大.研究发现[2],2010年京津冀,长江三角洲及珠江三角洲区域PM2.5年均浓度受区域外源贡献分别达到22%、37%、28%.2012年12月,环保部发布《重点区域大气污染防治“十二五”规划》,针对性建立了区域大气污染联防联控机制.然而,由于不同省份之间经济发展程度差异,且存在一定程度的资源环境不公平交易现象,因此在面对多区域,大范围的大气污染时,各省市所需承担的污染责任也有所不同,需要厘清各个省区的治理责任,从而因地制宜实现治理目标.
对于省区污染责任的计算,现有的研究主要集中在省份本地的生产性排放与在特定气象条件下大气污染物跨越行政边界的自然输送[3].但是随着经济的发展,由于各区域自然资源条件差异以及产业分工不同,区域之间存在密切的商品贸易交换,这带来了污染物排放与商品消费之间的分离,在国际和省际尺度上,中国碳排放与出口需求紧密相关,且贸易中的污染物排放问题日益凸显[4-5].基于单区域投入产出模型的双边贸易含污量(EEBT)方法和基于多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型的方法是研究该问题的主要手段.面对同一问题,研究者们使用两种方法得出了不同的结论,张增凯利用EEBT发现省际贸易中隐含碳排放呈现从中西部向东部转移的趋势[6],而Guo等[7]则得到了贸易隐含大气污染物排放从东部向中西部转移的结果.对类似的研究问题,使用EEBT方法或MRIO模型在结果上出现了明显的差异,这是由于EEBT方法仅能考虑到双边贸易,对于某个地区的大气污染物排放问题,该方法仅能追溯到生产链条的上一环,而MRIO模型能够刻画国家和地区之间因贸易而产生的溢出反馈效应,并能涵盖所有上游生产活动所产生的间接影响[8].因此选择MRIO模型在长时间序列下,研究多种大气污染物在不同省份之间的转移更能找到贸易隐含大气污染物排放变化的准确原因.
随着投入产出编制技术的发展和中国省际投入产出表的发布,更多研究者使用MRIO模型分析了省际贸易隐含的污染物排放问题,发现省际贸易隐含的污染物排放量大,且存在通过消费将污染物从东部省区调入中西部省区的现象[9].同时,部分较发达省市通过省际贸易将污染转移出去并获得额外的GDP净流入,而欠发达省市则承接了污染却得不到足够的GDP补偿,这种关系不仅发生在发达地区与相邻欠发达地区之间,还会因产业结构差异而存在于欠发达省市之间[10].
在现有使用MRIO模型的研究中,针对贸易隐含污染物排放的分析存在局限性.具体而言,学者们主要聚焦于单时间序列和单一污染物的排放,而对于各省份污染物排放时空演变的深入研究相对不足.尽管有研究者利用MRIO模型或LMDI方法在不同角度对贸易隐含污染物排放进行了探讨,但他们大多仅关注某一特定年份或某一类污染物[11-14].然而,实际生产过程中大气污染物种类多样且相互交织,同时生产技术水平和组织关系也在不断变化.
因此,为更全面理解省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放的时空演变格局,需要采用多时间序列并统合多种污染物排放进行分析,以清晰揭示污染物排放的转移趋势和不同区域在贸易中的环境得失情况.
同时我们需要进一步研究贸易隐含排放的变动的驱动力.在贸易隐含排放变动的驱动力研究领域,学者们通常采用两种主要方法:指数分解模型和投入产出结构分解模型(SDA).吴巧生通过指数分解模型对中国能源消耗强度进行分析,深入研究其影响因素[15].尽管指数分解模型简洁而直观,其局限性在于无法深入分解最终需求结构,中间投入技术等因素.相较之下,投入产出结构分解模型以能够全面分析各种直接或间接的影响因素受到广泛应用.郭朝先运用SDA发现能源消费强度效应一直是碳减排的主要推动力,最终需求的规模扩张效应和投入产出系数变动效应是碳排放增加的主要因素[16].此外,SDA还能够量化驱动因素对于省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放的变动的影响,Wo等[17]用此方法计算了西藏-青海地区的人均消费量,平均消费结构和人口等因素对碳排放的影响.然而,现有研究多关注于碳排放,对大气污染物排放关注较少,较少量针对大气污染物的研究中,研究者们也往往聚焦于人口对于排放的影响[18-21],而忽略了能源对于贸易隐含污染物排放同样具有巨大影响力.
中国作为世界上人口最多,经济规模最大的国家之一,其省际贸易的体量庞大且贸易关系错综复杂,新发展格局下,2017年国内贸易对中国经济增长的贡献为15.91%,将近国际贸易贡献的3倍[22].然而,庞大贸易体量伴生的如环境不公平,区域发展不平衡,资源配置效率不高等问题制约了中国可持续发展.因此,深入探讨中国省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放的时空演变格局及驱动力,特别是在大气污染和环境不公平双重背景下的应对策略,显得尤为迫切和重要.
综上,本文提出了一个多尺度的时空分析评价框架.首先,采用多区域投入产出方法识别多年份中国省际贸易隐含的大气污染物流动趋势及体量;其次,基于投入产出模型的结构分解分析,厘清省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放变动的驱动因素.在省级,部门级双尺度对省际贸易隐含的4种大气污染物排放时空演变格局及驱动力进行分析.创新性地选择能源消费结构,单位GDP能耗等因素,并量化其贡献率.
以期为制定科学联防联控治污政策,减少大气污染,提供定量化的分析依据.
构建省份部门双尺度多区域投入产出表,以矩阵的形式捕捉到上游生产导致的间接环境影响,阐述经济部门间大气污染物流动信息.
基于涵盖31个省份,每个省份包含42个部门,共计1260个部门的多区域投入产出表,进行省份部门双尺度的多区域投入产出表构建.
考虑到数据匹配问题,需要将原始多区域投入产出表中西藏自治区剔除,因此需要将西藏自治区及其部门在其余省份的中间投入尽数减除,并删除相关总投入总产出等数值,得到一张30省份42部门多区域投入产出表,且验证此表满足总投入等于总产出的基本规律.
在省份尺度上,将每个省份的42个部门的中间投入,最终使用、总投入、总产出等数值进行汇总归一,以此构建出30个省份间的多区域投入产出表.在部门尺度上,本文参考《国民经济行业分类》(GB/T 4754—2017)[42],将各省份的42个部门的相关数据归总至各省份最终的14个部门类别中,进而得到部门尺度上的投入产出表,并在两个尺度均验证其满足总投入等于总产出的基本规律.
两个尺度的多区域投入产出表中均存在以下平衡关系:
对各部门而言(即v=r时),v部门的总投入等于r部门的总产出.式(1)中表示,s省市的v部门分配到p省市的r部门的中间产品用于其最终产品的生产的值;为省市pr部门的总投入.
式(2)中A为中间投入系数矩阵,其中元素an,n为直接消耗系数:
式中:L为里昂惕夫逆矩阵;I为单位矩阵.
式中:为省市pr部门的大气污染物排放系数;为省市pr部门的大气污染物排放量.
式中:Wi为省际贸易隐含的第i种大气污染物排放量;F为最终消费矩阵,根据尺度不同,其中元素yn,n为各省份或各部门最终消费的量:
结构分解分析以投入产出表为基础,将经济系统中某因变量的变动分解为相应驱动因素变动之和,来测度各驱动因素对因变量变动的贡献值.
式中:Ci表示第i种大气污染物排放,其元素表示30省份14部门的第i种大气污染物排放;ei表示单位能耗第i种大气污染物排放量,其元素表示30省份14部门单位能耗排放大气污染物的量;q表示单位GDP能耗,其元素表示30省份14部门单位产出的能耗;L表示生产技术;F表示最终需求水平,其元素表示30省份14部门最终需求总量.
因此,省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放量的变化量等于编制年份省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放量减基准年省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放量,代入式(8),省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放量的变化量具体计算如式(9)所示,其中下标为0,代表基准年数据,下标为1,代表编制年数据,而公式中每一项代表了相应驱动因素变化对隐含污染物排放变动的贡献.
由于式(8)中4种驱动因素的排列顺序有24种,驱动因素排列顺序不同,式(9)中4种驱动因素的权值不同,故式(9)共存在24种分解形式,而同一种驱动因素对ΔC的贡献在不同方程中并不相同,若求得24种分解形式的结果,并以它们的平均值作为最终结果,则该平均值的方差较大,在(-60%)~(+70%)之间浮动,因此不能以24种分解形式中某一个方程来计算驱动因素对ΔC的贡献,所以本文以24种分解形式加权平均的结果作为最终结果.因此能源消费结构效应,单位GDP能耗效应,生产技术效应及最终需求水平效应,4种驱动因素对贸易隐含污染物排放变动的贡献,分别如式(10),式(11),式(12)及式(13)所示.
本研究计算所需数据包括两个方面:
(1)以中国30省份为研究区,识别NOx、PM10、PM2.5和SO24种大气污染物在2012~2017年内省际贸易中的流动.所需数据包括中国2012年,2015年和2017年30省份42部门多区域投入产出表(表1)和30省份22部门NOx、PM10、PM2.5和SO2 4种大气污染物排放数据.其中多区域投入产出表来自CEAD数据库[23],污染物排放数据来自MEIC数据库[24-25].
(2)分析省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放变动的驱动力,所需数据还包括30省份44部门能源消耗量,其来自CEAD数据库[26,30],其中能源消耗量包括原煤、洗精煤、其他洗煤等共20种能源消耗数据,本文利用国家公布的各种能源折标准煤参考系数,将所有部门的各种能耗统一为标准煤消耗[31].最后对上述数据进行部门映射,将所有数据表聚合为14部门.
图1所示,在时间序列上,2012~2017年内,对于选取的4种大气污染物,省份之间大气污染物净进出口量的差距在逐年减小,并且大气污染物转移的量也在逐步递减.其中省份之间SO2净进出口量的差距减小最快.
2012年SO2净进口省的平均净进口量为8.9万t,净出口省的平均净出口量为7.8万t;2017年,SO2净进口省的平均净进口量为3.5万t,净出口省的平均净出口量为2.7万t.省份之间大气污染物净进出口量的差距减小了63%.从空间视角审视,大气污染物净出口地区正逐步从”经济繁荣,工业健全”的区域转移到”资源丰富”的地区,这一转变在4种大气污染物中均有所体现.针对NOx排放的转移趋势,2012年的数据显示,东部沿海地区及中部地带显著成为污染物净出口区域,这反映出,通过省际贸易,西部与北部省份的NOx排放责任被间接转移至了东部沿海与中部地区.其中,江苏省尤为突出,成为NOx最大的净出口省份,内蒙古与广东则分别向江苏省转移了3.0万t与3.6万t的NOx排放.不仅如此,NOx净出口省份之间也存在复杂的转嫁关系,例如河北省向江苏省转嫁了2.3万t的NOx排放.然而,每个省份的情况并非完全一致.北京、上海、广东、新疆、云南、陕西、青海和海南这8个省份,在各类大气污染物的转移中均扮演了净进口省份的角色,即它们通过省际贸易成功地将自身污染物排放转移至其他省份.其中,广东、北京和上海是净进口量最大的3个省份,尤其是广东,研究期内,其4种大气污染物的净进口量占总进口量的平均比例均超过20%.与这些省份形成对比的是河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃,这5个省份在各类大气污染物的转移中均扮演了净出口省份的角色,即它们承担了来自其他省份的污染物排放.而安徽、江西、贵州和湖南这4个省份,在大多数情况下也扮演着净进口省份的角色.另外,内蒙古与广西在2012~2017年间,经历了从污染物净进口省份到净出口省份的转变;而江苏与山东则在这段时期内,实现了相反的转变.
各种驱动因素对中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放的影响,总体如图2所示.研究期间,能源消费结构和单位GDP能耗对贸易隐含大气污染物排放变动呈现负向效应.生产技术的影响大体从弱正向效应转变为了弱负向效应.而最终需求水平的影响始终呈现正向效应,其贡献率占据主导地位.
除生产技术以外,其余3个驱动因素的贡献率多呈现较大幅度的波动态势.具体来说,从2015~2017年,最终需求水平效应的贡献率呈持续的正向上升趋势,对NOx排放变动的贡献率上升幅度最大,达到了1203%,对PM2.5排放变动的贡献率上升幅度最小,为214%.对于能源消费结构效应,中国省际贸易隐含NOx、PM10、PM2.5和SO2排放的变动均呈现负向效应,其贡献率分别从-222%下降至-635%,从-233%下降至-363%,从-281%下降至-516%,从-147%下降至-641%,且下降幅度较大,最大可达336%,这表明能源消费结构效应对于NOx贸易大气污染物排放变动的影响在逐步增大.相较而言,单位GDP能耗效应,对中国省际贸易隐含PM10、PM2.5排放变动的影响虽然也呈现负向效应,但其贡献率的下降变化幅度较小,且对于省际贸易隐含PM10排放变动的贡献率减小.
能源消费结构对中国贸易隐含大气污染物排放的变动的影响明显,从省级尺度看,4种大气污染物有差异,但绝大多数的省份的能源消费结构对大气污染物排放的变动的影响表现为持续而显著的负向效应.仅对于贵州省来说,能源消费结构反而呈现显著的正向效应.
单位能耗污染物排放量是衡量能源消费清洁程度的指标,不同能源单位能耗污染物排放系数不同,例如天然气的单位能耗SO2排放系数仅为0.47(kg/t标准煤),而煤炭的单位能耗SO2排放系数为20(kg/t标准煤),当一个省份的能源消费结构中清洁能源的占比越大,那么该省份的单位能耗污染物排放量越小.
因此,单位能耗污染物排放量减少是能源消费结构呈现负向效应的主要原因.表2给出了2012年,2015年,2017年30省份单位能耗4种污染物排放量.研究期间,除贵州省以外,各省的单位能耗污染物排放量均呈现下降趋势,29省份单位能耗NOx、PM10、PM2.5和SO2排放量平均下降幅度分别为25%、44%、41%和59%,与除贵州省以外,29省份能源消费结构均呈现负向效应,且贡献率较大的情况相吻合.
反观贵州省,比之2012年,2017年贵州省单位能耗4种大气污染物排放量均呈现上升趋势,其中PM10、PM2.5两种颗粒物的单位能耗排放量上升幅度超过了100%,相对应的,贵州省能源消费结构效应对PM10、PM2.5两种颗粒物排放变动的贡献率分别为73%与74%.
从部门尺度看,如表3所示,研究期间,全国420个部门中绝大多数部门的能源消费结构对4种大气污染物排放的影响呈现负向效应.其中,建筑部门能源消费结构效应的贡献值相对较大.而印刷印染、工业锅炉、化学产品等部门能源消费结构效应贡献率接近零,表明能源消费结构对印刷印染、工业锅炉、化学产品等部门影响较小.
单位GDP能耗效应对中国贸易隐含大气污染物排放的变动的影响,从省级尺度看,2015年30个省的单位GDP能耗效应对4种大气污染物排放变动的影响均表现为持续而显著的负向效应.2017年,仅内蒙古、辽宁、黑龙江和宁夏4个省份的单位GDP能耗效应对4种大气污染物排放变动的影响呈现为正向效应.
单位GDP能耗能够直接反映能源利用效率,在其他因素不变的情况下,每生产一单位生产总值所消耗的能源降低,代表着因生产一单位生产总值而排放的污染物减少,因此,单位GDP能耗的降低是单位GDP能耗对省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放的变动呈现负向效应的主要原因.表4给出了研究期间30省份的单位GDP能耗,能够发现仅有内蒙古,辽宁,黑龙江和宁夏4个省份的单位GDP能耗存在上升趋势,其中辽宁省的单位GDP能耗从2012年到2017年,上升幅度超过了36%.
从部门尺度看,如表5所示,2015年与2017年,单位GDP能耗效应对于贵州省建筑部门的4种大气污染物的排放均呈现了极强的正向作用,其贡献值均是420部门中最大值,此外,单位GDP能耗效应的贡献率也同样是四种效应中的最大值.这代表着贵州省建筑部门可能存在过于注重野蛮扩张而忽略了投入产出比的问题,相比于其余省份,贵州省建筑部门单位产出所消耗的能源更多,效率较低.但同样要注意到,单位GDP能耗效应对于贵州省建筑部门的4种大气污染物排放的贡献值呈现下降趋势,2015~2017年,单位GDP能耗效应对于贵州省建筑部门NOx的排放的变动的贡献值下降幅度超过55%.这说明贵州建筑部门能源利用效率较低的问题正在逐步解决.
与其余3种驱动因素相比较,生产技术效应对于中国省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放的变动影响较小,其贡献率相对其余3种效应较低.
从省级尺度看,生产技术效应对中国省际贸易隐含的4种大气污染物排放存在明显的时间差异.2015年,生产技术效应表现为相对较弱的正向效应,对于NOx,PM10,PM2.5排放的影响,仅对北京、河北、山西、辽宁、上海、江西、山东、青海和新疆9省的贡献值为负,对于SO2排放的影响,对北京、河北、山西、辽宁、上海、江西、山东和新疆8省的贡献值为负,且贡献率较低.2017年,生产技术效应表现为显著的负向效应.仅对湖北省的PM10排放的变动贡献值为正,且仅有133万t,贡献率极低.从部门尺度看,如表6所示,生产技术效应对浙江,江苏和广东的建筑部门影响相对较大.
影响力系数被广泛应用于研究不同部门之间的经济联系,它揭示了当一个部门的最终需求水平上升一单位时,它所能带动的所有行业的最终需求总额.影响力系数的变化是导致生产技术效应从弱正向效应转变为显著负向效应的主要原因.如表7所示,北京、河北、山西、辽宁、上海、江西、山东、青海和新疆在2012年~2015年间,其影响力系数均呈现下降趋势.与生产技术效应负的贡献值相匹配.整体来看,各省影响力系数变化较小,其中变化最大的辽宁省,影响力系数下降幅度仅17%,而这导致了相较于其余3种效应,生产技术效应对中国省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放变动的影响偏小.
在审视中国大气污染物排放的变动情况时,研究发现,从宏观角度来看,4种大气污染物最终需求水平呈现出显著且持久的正向效应,且其贡献值基本处于四种驱动因素中最高位,这清晰地表明了中国省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放变化的主要推动力正是最终需求水平的提升.细化到省级层面,研究发现,在绝大多数省份中,最终需求水平均展现出了积极的正向效应,其贡献值均为正值.然而,也有例外情况出现,比如2015年的内蒙古和2017年的黑龙江,在这两个特定的时间节点和地区,最终需求水平对四种大气污染物排放的变动产生了负面效应.
从时间序列的维度看,2012~2017年间,省份间大气污染物净进出口量的差异呈现逐年缩小的趋势,同时,省份间大气污染物的转移量也在稳步降低.这一积极转变的背后,主要有两大动因驱动.首先,各省份在经济稳步发展的同时,积极调整和优化产业结构,提升省份基本的自给自足能力.这一系列的调整优化措施,有效减轻了部分省份对于外省工业产品的依赖.其次,全国范围内对污染治理的重视程度显著提升,各省份纷纷出台严格的法律法规,如《江苏省铸造行业大气污染综合治理方案》和《浙江省大气污染防治条例》等,以限制和淘汰污染密集型企业的生产活动,进一步推动大气质量的持续改善.
从空间序列的视角分析,大气污染物净出口地区正逐渐由"经济发达,工业成熟完备"的地域,转向"资源富集"的地区.这一转变与当今"西部大开发"等发展战略相呼应.随着西部省份工业基础设施的逐步完善和交通网络的日益发达,这些地区已具备了承接来自东部沿海地区污染密集型企业的能力.同时,顺应环境法规的演进,污染密集型产业开始从环境法规更为严格的东部沿海地区,向环境法规相对宽松,更接近资源产地的西部地区转移.
对于个别特殊省份,广东成为一个显著的污染物净进口省份的原因,是因为其人口众多且呈现持续增长的态势,2012~2017年,其人口增长了一千万以上,庞大的人口导致其对各类污染密集型工业产品有着巨大的需求.与其情况类似的还有河南.而北京、上海与广东不同,北京、上海长期作为污染物净进口省份,虽然同样人口众多,但更关键是这些省份土地面积更小,且发展水平高,带来土地租金上升,法律法规更严格,当地用人成本更高,产业结构中污染密集型产业更少,但省市对于污染物密集型工业品需求量同样巨大,因此,只能加大进口量,成为污染物净进口省份[9].
而内蒙古自治区,对于4种大气污染物,从2012年到2017年,均从显著的大气污染物的净进口省份转变为了显著的大气污染净出口省份,究其原因,是由于内蒙古矿产资源丰富、环境法规宽松.考虑到要素成本与相应政策,在承接来自其他省份的污染密集型产业时内蒙古具有天然优势.据陈等研究,2011~2021年,内蒙古逐渐成了重污染企业的高集聚区[32].同样,河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃之所以长时间是污染物净出口省份,原因有多方面.首先,相较于经济发达的北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东等省份,河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃可开发土地面积大、地价低,建设大规模工厂更经济.第二,河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃离"经济较发达,产业结构需要调整"的省份距离近,且基础设施较为完善、煤炭资源等较为丰富,形成了良好的工业体系,能够生产出足量的工业产品来满足"经济发达地区"的需求.最后,在改革开放浪潮中,河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃的地理位置对于对外交流贸易来说相对不具备明显的优势,因此在经济发展上缺乏一定程度的先发优势,随着省际贸易的流动,在生产链条中处于中游,成为污染物净出口省份[33].
Christina[34]针对全球贸易中隐含SO2的研究表明,贸易隐含的SO2排放主要从发达地区流向欠发达地区.在Zhao等[35]针对全球轻工业产业链隐含NOx和SO2排放的研究中,发现产业链隐含NOx和SO2排放主要从高收入经济体流向低收入或中等收入经济体,并随着时间的推移大幅增长[35].通过这些贸易链与中国省际贸易中伴生大气污染物的流动,能简单概括贸易伴生大气污染物排放格局时空演变的简单规律:在环保政策日益严格的前提下,污染物会从经济发达地区有限度地流向资源丰富但经济相对落后的地区,其限度主要表现在经济发达地区与相对落后地区之间距离的远近,并随着经济发展,距离越远,限制越小[36].而陈晖等[37]针对2012年中国省际碳转移的研究得到了类似的观点,省际贸易促使经济处于劣势的省份排放更多碳.
针对省际贸易隐含污染物排放变动驱动力因素,2015年的内蒙古自治区和2017年的黑龙江省,在这两个特定时间节点的特定地区,最终需求水平对四种大气污染物排放的变动产生了负面效应.但值得注意的是,不同省份之间,最终需求效应的贡献值并非统一居首.特别是在东北三省(黑龙江、辽宁、吉林),能源消费结构成为影响力最为显著的驱动因素,紧随其后的是单位GDP能耗.其原因与东北三省重工业基地的定位紧密相关,其第二产业占比大的产业结构极大地提高了能源在这些省份的影响力.因此,在这三个省份,能源消费结构和单位GDP能耗的影响力超越了最终需求水平,成为最大的驱动因素.此外,随着新的经济发展浪潮的冲击,东北三省面临着劳动力大量外流和消费需求降低的挑战,这也导致了最终需求水平效应在这些地区的贡献值相对较低.
在部门尺度,建筑部门对四种污染物排放贡献率高,受能源消费结构、单位GDP能耗两因素影响大.首先,这是由于建筑部门整体开发力度大、建设用地占比、高建筑面积大.其次,在整条产业链条中,上游为水泥制造相关产业,其生产步骤,如原料破碎、磨煤、原料烧结,熟料磨煤粉以及相关的照明、运输等均需要消耗大量能源,为能源依赖型产业,因此能源消费结构与单位GDP能耗的变动,会对建筑部门造成相对较大的影响[38-39].
针对印刷印染部门,能源消费结构对其造成的影响小.究其原因,这是由于2012年中国造纸工业呈现企业多而小的局面,能源利用效率低、设备老旧、生产工艺以及配套污染处理技术落后.致使即便整个造纸工业原煤使用量下降,使用天然气占比上升,依旧没能有效减少贸易隐含大气污染物的排放[40-41].
综合中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放时空演变格局及其背后4个驱动因素,本文为减少污染物排放提供以下建议.
(1)识别大气污染物在经济部门间的流动、把握整体性、实施适当的生态补偿.在产业链条中,污染物的排放往往呈现出上游部门直接排放量大,下游部门直接排放量较小,而下游部门却往往获得了更可观的经济收益的现象.因此,仅根据各部门的直接污染物排放量来制定防治政策,往往片面且缺乏合理性.为了实现大气污染物排放的实质性减少,必须将减排责任贯穿于整个产业链条的每个环节.即便下游部门在污染物直接排放方面表现较少,但鉴于其显著的经济收益,也应适当为上游部门承担一部分排放责任.这种责任分担的方式,不仅有助于促进产业链内部的公平与和谐,更能从整体上推动大气污染物排放的有效减少,实现经济与环境的共赢.
(2)调整能源消费结构、开发新能源、提高能源利用效率.我国能源消费仍以煤炭为主.然而煤炭能源效率低,污染物排放高,造成了严重颗粒物、SO2污染.针对我国能源消费以煤炭为主的情况,应利用相关政策逐步控制煤炭消费总量的同时,注意生煤精加工,增加精煤使用;另外大力发展清洁能源,减少单位能耗污染物排放量;对高耗煤企业进行一定的限制;通过开发,合成新能源的方式,提升能源质量,降低单位GDP能耗;开发新材料,减少电力运输过程中的损耗,提升电力的使用效率.
(3)在国内大循环的战略框架下,各省应共同构建互补性的减排政策体系,以实现减排目标的协同推进.具体而言,污染物净出口省份应深化科技研发投入,推动工业技术的革新步伐,从而有效减少自身的污染物排放.而污染物净进口省份则应积极履行治污责任,通过减少省内对污染密集型产品的过度依赖,降低环境污染压力.同时,这些省份还应在资金,技术和人才等方面,向污染物净出口省份提供有力支持,以共同推进减排工作,实现环境质量的整体提升.
但本研究仍然存在一些不足.一方面,投入产出模型的使用有待进一步补充,现研究使用历史年份的数据,利用2012年,2015年与2017年的投入产出表,污染物排放数据与能耗数据进行分析.考虑到各个省份对于经济条件的提升、工业基础的完善、自身定位的调整以及国家针对大气污染政策的改变,在未来可以考虑叠加更新的投入产出表,污染物排放数据以及能耗数据,来识别贸易隐含的大气污染物排放的流动的改变.另一方面,省际贸易隐含的大气污染物排放变动的驱动力因素研究有待进一步扩展,可以增加驱动力因子数量,考虑到人口数量的变化,人们需求结构的改变,从而更精准地找到贸易隐含大气污染物排放变动的原因.另外还可以联系复杂网络算法,针对省际贸易中隐含大气污染物排放的枢纽省份以及部门进行研究讨论.
4.1 中国省际贸易隐含的4种大气污染物排放时空格局在2012~2017年发生了巨大的改变.从大气污染物净出口地区来看,2012年,东部沿海地区是最为严重的大气污染物净出口地区,尤其是江苏省,承接了多个省份的4种大气污染物.随着经济的发展.西北部省份工业结构逐渐完善,而东部沿海地区同样进行产业结构转型,使得污染密集型产业从东部沿海地区向西部地区转移.大气污染物净出口地区从"经济繁荣,工业健全"的地区转移到"资源丰富"的地区.
4.2 各省份间的情况存在差异.具体而言,北京、上海、广东、新疆、云南、陕西、青海和海南这8个省份,均通过省际贸易有效转移了自身的污染物排放至其他省份.其中,广东、北京和上海尤为突出,成为净进口量最大的3个省份,河北、山西、辽宁、四川和甘肃,这5个省份在4种大气污染物的转移中均扮演着净出口省份的角色,即它们承担了来自其他省份的污染物排放压力.此外,安徽、江西、贵州和湖南这4个省份在大多数情况下也表现为净进口省份.值得注意的是,内蒙古与广西在2012~2017年间经历了角色的转变,即从净进口省份转变为净出口省份.而江苏与山东则实现了相反的转变,即从污染物净出口省份转变为净进口省份.
4.3 最终需求水平对中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放的变动呈现持续的正向效应,代表最终需求水平的提高是驱动中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放增加的主要原因.而单位能耗污染物排放量的减少,与单位GDP能耗的降低对中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放的变动呈现持续的负向效应,是中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放降低的重要助手.行业影响力系数的变化是导致生产技术效应从弱正向效应转变为弱负向效应的主要原因,表明生产技术对减少中国省际贸易隐含大气污染物排放的减少起到积极作用,但影响较小.
  • 国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174029)
  • 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目
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2025年第45卷第2期
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  • 接收时间:2024-07-10
  • 首发时间:2026-03-17
  • 出版时间:2025-02-20
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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-10
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174029)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目
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    北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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