Article(id=1240656098080904104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240656096998773667, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.01.012, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1702483200000, receivedDateStr=2023-12-14, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773725064057, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1742832000000, pubDateStr=2025-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773725064057, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773725064057, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773725064057, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240656096998773667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, year='2025', volume='48', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='198', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773725063800, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773725118083, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240656324749480238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240656096998773667, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240656324749480239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240656096998773667, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=93, endPage=100, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240656098269647793, articleId=1240656098080904104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, language=EN, title=Correlation analysis of port congestion and CCFI fluctuations on the China-US Export container route, columnId=1240655021705065434, journalTitle=Navigation of China, columnName=Port and Waterway Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

A Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model is constructed by combining the China Containerized Freight Index of E/C America Service (CCFI E/C America Service) and the China Containerized Freight Index of W/C America Service (CCFI W/C America Service) with the Clarksons Container ship Port Congestion Index (CPCI) from January 2018 to February 2023, to quantitatively analyze the impact mechanism of port congestion on container freight rates. The model also incorporates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to study the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The results show that: 1) Port congestion leads to the occupation of container capacity and port resources, as well as changes in the distribution of capacity and transportation strategies on the China-U.S. export container routes, which in turn causes different degrees of fluctuations in CCFI on the sub-routes; 2) The effect of port congestion on container freight rates persists for nearly three months; 3) Regardless of the U.S. East route or the U.S. West route, port congestion in the U.S. has a more significant impact on promoting the increase of the container freight index compared to port congestion in China. Meanwhile, this paper provides a new perspective for predicting CCFI by investigating the impact mechanism of port congestion on CCFI fluctuations.

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为预测CCFI提供新的视角，将2018年1月~2023年2月中国出口集装箱运价指数美东航线（CCFI美东航线）和中国出口集装箱运价指数美西航线（CCFI美西航线）同克拉克森集装箱港口拥堵指数（CPCI）构建向量自回归模型（VAR），定量分析港口拥堵对集装箱运价的影响机制。结合VEC模型来研究变量之间长期的均衡关系。考虑到国际原油价格、进出口贸易额等都会对CCFI波动产生影响，因而在建立VAR模型前，本文采用OLS方法检验港口拥堵指数是否能独立于控制变量（布伦特原油价格、进出口贸易额）对CCFI波动产生影响。研究结果表明：1）港口拥堵导致集装箱运力和港口资源被占用，中—美出口集装箱航线上的运力分布及运输策略发生变化，继而引起分航线上CCFI出现不同程度的波动；2）港口拥堵对集装箱运价产生的影响效应会维持近三个月；3）无论美东航线还是美西航线，美国港口拥堵比中国港口的拥堵更能推动集装箱运价指数的攀升。

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赵楠（1986—），女，高级工程师，博士，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail: rockyzhao1986@163.com

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赵楠（1986—），女，高级工程师，博士，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail: rockyzhao1986@163.com

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