Article(id=1240655516146389655, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655508231746242, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.02.017, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1706025600000, receivedDateStr=2024-01-24, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773724925313, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1750780800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773724925313, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773724925313, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773724925313, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240655508231746242, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, year='2025', volume='48', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='180', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773724923427, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773725151164, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240656463488667953, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655508231746242, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240656463492862258, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655508231746242, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=136, endPage=143, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240655516364493465, articleId=1240655516146389655, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, language=EN, title=Analysis of green development strategy for inland navigation in Guangdong Province based on system dynamics, columnId=1240655020656489358, journalTitle=Navigation of China, columnName=Green Shipping, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The green development of shipping is an important foundation for the high-quality development of inland shipping. By analysing the relationship between Guangdong's economy, shipping, energy and the environment, a model of the Guangdong inland green shipping system was constructed using the system dynamics method. Scenarios were simulated and the effect of different green scenarios on the energy consumption and pollutant emissions of Guangdong inland shipping was analysed. The results show that, by 2030, reducing the energy consumption of transport vehicles will have a greater positive impact on the shipping industry than changing the energy structure. The green effect of the combined scenario was better than that of the single scenario, with an energy-saving effect of 18.25% and 36.39% respectively for the inland navigation system. The emission reduction effect was 22.42% and 50.93% respectively. Switching to low-sulphur oil for inland shipping system ships would reduce air pollutant emissions (SO₂ and NO_x) by an average of around 49 300 and 60 500 tonnes, respectively. In the long term, green development in Guangdong's inland shipping sector can be based on optimising the industrial structure and implementing various strategies, such as changing the energy structure and technical means.

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航运绿色发展是内河航运高质量发展的重要基础，通过分析广东经济、航运、能源和环境间的关系，运用系统动力学方法构建广东内河绿色航运系统模型并进行情景仿真，分析不同绿色情景对广东内河航运能耗和污染物排放的作用效果。结果表明：至2030年，降低运输工具单位能耗对航运业绿色效果优于能源结构；组合情景绿色效果优于单一情景，内河航运系统组合情景两种方案的节能效果分别为18.25%和36.39%；减排效果分别22.42%和50.93%；内河航运系统船舶转用低硫油情景平均降低大气污染物SO₂和NO_x的排放量约4.93万吨和6.05万吨。长期来看，广东内河航运绿色发展可基于优化产业结构，从改变能源结构、技术手段等多种策略综合实施。

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李佳航（1998—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为内河绿色航运政策分析与仿真。E-mail:1196022257@qq.com

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李佳航（1998—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为内河绿色航运政策分析与仿真。E-mail:1196022257@qq.com

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