Article(id=1240655137677570265, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655131507740845, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.011, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1700668800000, receivedDateStr=2023-11-23, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773724835079, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1758729600000, pubDateStr=2025-09-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773724835079, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773724835079, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773724835079, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240655131507740845, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, year='2025', volume='48', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='184', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773724833608, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773725188865, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240656621609742880, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655131507740845, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240656621613937185, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655131507740845, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=90, endPage=97, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240655137887285467, articleId=1240655137677570265, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, language=EN, title=Safety risk assessment of oil tanker loading and unloading operation based on Bayesian network, columnId=1240655132208189615, journalTitle=Navigation of China, columnName=Ship and Ocean Engineering Equipment, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To address the high safety risks and frequent accidents associated with oil tanker loading and unloading operations, this paper proposes a data-driven risk assessment method based on Bayesian networks. Guided by systems engineering theory, a three-layer Bayesian network evaluation model comprising 34 nodes is constructed. Using the inference principle of the expectation-maximization algorithm, the conditional probabilities of the network nodes are computed to quantify risk levels within the model. The rationality and reliability of the model are verified through sensitivity and effectiveness analyses. Validation using data from 20 actual tankers demonstrates that the model's output aligns with risk levels assessed by port security personnel and can accurately evaluate the risks during oil tanker loading and unloading operations. The proposed model and method are applicable for assessing safety risk levels in oil tanker operations and can serve as a reference for safety evaluations of loading and unloading operations for other types of dangerous goods carriers.

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针对油轮装卸作业安全风险较高、事故频发等问题，提出一种基于数据驱动和贝叶斯网络的油轮装卸作业安全风险评价方法。依据系统工程学理论，构建具有34个网络节点的三层贝叶斯网络评价模型。运用最大期望值算法的推理原理，计算该模型网络节点的条件概率，实现该模型的风险评价量化，通过敏感性和有效性分析验证该模型的合理性和可靠性。以20艘实船数据对评价模型进行验证，结果表明，该模型的输出结果与港口安全生产人员评估的装卸作业风险水平一致，能准确地评价油轮装卸作业风险；所提出的模型和方法可用于油轮装卸作业安全风险水平的评价，同时为其他类型的危险品船舶装卸作业安全评价提供参考。

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况丽姣（1996—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为水上交通系统风险分析与安全保障。E-mail: kuanglijiao111@163.com

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况丽姣（1996—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为水上交通系统风险分析与安全保障。E-mail: kuanglijiao111@163.com

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