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Ship collisions pose significant risks to ship structures and the safety of lives on board. Rapid analysis of the extent of structural damage from collisions can provide a critical basis for emergency risk mitigation and damage control and rescue operations. While the Finite Element Method (FEM) can accurately calculate the degree of structural collision damage, it is time-consuming and requires numerous parameters, making it unsuitable for rapid damage assessment under limited input conditions. Using a dataset of 202 ship collision accidents that occurred between 2015 and 2019, this study applies statistical analysis to establish relationships between damage factors and damage levels. A Bayesian network model is developed to analyze the risk of collision damage grades under the combined influence of multiple factors. The results demonstrate that the proposed method agrees well with actual accident cases and can rapidly estimate the collision damage level of ship structures even when only limited parameters are available.

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船舶碰撞对船舶结构、船上人员生命安全带来巨大威胁，快速分析船舶结构碰撞损伤等级能为紧急避险、损管救援提供有效依据。有限元法能准确地计算船舶结构碰撞损伤等级，但耗时长、需要参数多，无法在有限参数下实现船舶结构碰撞损伤等级的快速分析。基于贝叶斯网络模型建立多损伤因素联合作用下船舶结构碰撞损伤程度风险分析模型，以2015—2020的202起船舶碰撞事故为数据样本，采用统计分析方法建立船舶损伤因素与结构碰撞损伤等级的统计关系，实现多要素联合作用下船舶结构碰撞损伤等级风险快速评估。研究结果表明：该方法分析结果与实际案例吻合良好，可在参数有限的条件下快速估计出船舶结构碰撞损伤等级。

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吕明冬（1990—），男，讲师，研究方向为船舶安全保障。E-mail: 1213730780@qq.com

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吕明冬（1990—），男，讲师，研究方向为船舶安全保障。E-mail: 1213730780@qq.com

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