中国航海

考虑通道阻断的全球原油海运网络评估研究

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邱伟维 ¹ , 张哲辉 ¹ , 朱吉双 ¹ , 汲高见 ² , 赵祥 ¹

中国航海 | 特邀专稿 2025,48(3): 1-9

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中国航海 | 特邀专稿 2025, 48(3): 1-9

考虑通道阻断的全球原油海运网络评估研究

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邱伟维¹, 张哲辉¹, 朱吉双¹, 汲高见², 赵祥¹

作者信息

^1．交通运输部水运科学研究院，北京 100088

^2．成都师范学院经济与管理学院，四川成都 610000

邱伟维（1994—），男，助理研究员，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail:qiuwewei@wti.ac.cn

通讯作者:

朱吉双（1976—），男，博士，副研究员，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail:zjs@wti.ac.cn

An assessment of the global crude oil maritime transportation network under channel blockade scenarios

Weiwei QIU¹, Zhehui ZHANG¹, Jishuang ZHU¹, Gaojian JI², Xiang ZHAO¹

Affiliations

^1.China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing 100088, China

^2.Chengdu Normal University, School of Economics and Management, Chengdu 610000, China

出版时间: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.001

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摘要

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在全球能源运输格局中，海运承担着超过70%的原油运输任务，其通道可靠性直接影响国家能源安全。当前，日益加剧的地缘政治风险使得全球关键海运通道的阻断风险空前凸显，对能源供应链的稳定性构成严峻挑战。为精准评估此风险，基于复杂网络理论，融合船舶自动识别系统（AIS）轨迹数据与运力权重，构建了一个将关键通道本身抽象为网络节点的全球原油海上运输有向加权网络。在此基础上，通过设计单一通道中断、复合情景失效及最优中断序列三种递进式攻击模拟策略，系统性地揭示了网络在面临通道阻断时的多维度脆弱性。研究发现：1）功能分异。关键通道对网络的影响存在显著差异，部分通道对全局效率至关重要，如移除马六甲海峡使网络全局效率降低1.99%，而另一部分则表现出结构次优性，如移除巴拿马运河网络拓扑效率反而提升了2.57%，揭示了网络存在可量化的次优路径。2）脆弱性异步。网络在不同维度下的响应并不同步，网络宏观连通性对单点或区域性失效表现出极强鲁棒性，但其核心结构则高度脆弱，在少量关键节点受攻击后便迅速瓦解，如在最优序列攻击中移除了4个节点，网络的K-Core值出现明显降幅。3）非线性退化。在最优序列攻击下，网络全局效率呈现U形演化，先降至最低点，攻击后期因拓扑重构效应反弹且远超初始值。核心结构崩溃远早于整体传输功能恶化，揭示了后者在攻击后期出现悖论性恢复现象。揭示了全球原油海运网络在通道阻断下的深层失效机理，为保障国家能源运输安全、提升全球供应链韧性提供了新的分析范式与决策依据。

关键词

全球原油海上运输 / 航运网络 / 递进式攻击 / 通道阻断 / 复杂网络 / 脆弱性

Abstract

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In the global energy transportation landscape, maritime transport accounts for over 70% of crude oil shipments, making the reliability of its channels paramount to national energy security. Escalating geopolitical tensions have significantly elevated the risk of disruption to critical maritime channels, posing severe challenges to the stability of energy supply chains. To accurately assess this risk, this study employs complex network theory and integrates Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectory data with vessel capacity weights to construct a global directed weighted network for crude oil maritime transportation, in which critical channels are abstracted as network nodes. Based on this framework, three progressive attack simulation strategies are designed-single channel disruption, compound scenario failure, and optimal disruption sequence-to systematically investigate the multidimensional vulnerability of the network to channel blockages. The findings indicate: 1) Functional differentiation. critical channels exhibit significant functional differentiation. Some are vital for global efficiency; for instance, removing the Strait of Malacca reduces network efficiency by 1.99%. Conversely, others demonstrate structural suboptimality, as exemplified by the removal of the Panama Canal, which paradoxically increases topological efficiency by 2.57%, revealing quantifiable suboptimal paths within the network. 2) Asynchronous vulnerability. The network exhibits asynchronous responses across performance dimensions. While macro-connectivity remains highly robust against single-point or regional failures, the core structure is highly fragile. For example, the network's K-Core value plummets after attacks targeting only four optimal nodes. 3) Non-linear degradation. Under optimal sequence attacks, global network efficiency follows a "U-shaped" trajectory-initially declining before rebounding beyond its original value due to topological reconfiguration. Notably, the collapse of the core structure occurs significantly earlier than the deterioration of overall transmission functionality, with the latter even showing a paradoxical recovery in the later stages of the attack. This study elucidates the underlying failure mechanisms of the global crude oil maritime transportation network under channel blockages, offering a new analytical paradigm and decision-making basis for ensuring national energy transportation security and enhancing the resilience of global supply chains.

Key words

global crude oil maritime transportation / shipping network / progressive attack strategy / channel blockade / complex network / vulnerability

引用本文

邱伟维, 张哲辉, 朱吉双, 汲高见, 赵祥. 考虑通道阻断的全球原油海运网络评估研究. 中国航海, 2025 , 48 (3) : 1 -9 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.001

Weiwei QIU, Zhehui ZHANG, Jishuang ZHU, Gaojian JI, Xiang ZHAO. An assessment of the global crude oil maritime transportation network under channel blockade scenarios[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (3) : 1 -9 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.001

参考文献

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2025年第48卷第3期

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文章信息

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.001

接收时间：2024-08-01
首发时间：2026-03-17
出版时间：2025-09-25

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收稿日期：2024-08-01

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作者信息

^1．交通运输部水运科学研究院，北京 100088

^2．成都师范学院经济与管理学院，四川成都 610000

通讯作者:

朱吉双（1976—），男，博士，副研究员，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail:zjs@wti.ac.cn

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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zghh/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.001

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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