Article(id=1240655021973500905, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655017040991028, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.013, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1734537600000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-19, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773724807494, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1766592000000, pubDateStr=2025-12-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773724807494, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773724807494, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773724807494, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240655017040991028, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, year='2025', volume='48', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='199', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773724806318, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773725219619, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240656750618145316, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655017040991028, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240656750618145317, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, issueId=1240655017040991028, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=113, endPage=120, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240655022325822463, articleId=1240655021973500905, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1240618002186551303, language=EN, title=Shanghai International Shipping Center's port and shipping capacity enhancement from the perspective of Dual Circulation, columnId=1240655021705065434, journalTitle=Navigation of China, columnName=Port and Waterway Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To foster a new development paradigm, the Yangtze River Economic Belt serves as a crucial hub connecting the domestic and international circulations. As the leading port and core node of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Shanghai Port's strategic role as one of the most critical infrastructure has become increasingly prominent. The Shanghai International Shipping Center is facing a bottleneck of spatial resource constraints in upgrading its service capacity. This paper evaluates port operational efficiency by constructing models for port service intensity, waiting probability, and queuing theory. It quantifies the impact of resource constraints using a ship loss rate model under different system capacities, while comparing development strategies of typical domestic and foreign ports to analyze the core challenges confronting the Shanghai International Shipping Center. Model analysis indicates that the structural contradiction between port service demand and spatial resource supply has become a key constraint on its high-quality development. Looking ahead, the expansion and upgrading of port-shipping resources and optimizing spatial resource allocation will enable the Shanghai International Shipping Center to effectively unleash the advantages of direct river-sea transportation, significantly improve port service capacity and the navigation efficiency of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, and reduce the comprehensive logistics costs of the whole society. This development path will not only promote the green transformation and digital-intelligent upgrading of the shipping industry but also strengthen the country's supply chain security and expand high-level opening-up, laying a solid foundation for the long-term and sustainable development of the Shanghai International Shipping Center.

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在新发展格局构建的战略背景下,长江经济带是联通国内国际双循环的关键枢纽,而上海港口作为长江经济带的龙头港口与核心节点,其基础设施的战略支撑作用愈发凸显。上海国际航运中心作为我国航运业的核心载体,其服务能级提升正面临空间资源约束的瓶颈。本文通过构建港口服务强度及等待概率模型、排队模型,系统评估港口运营效率,并结合不同系统容量下船舶损失率模型量化资源约束影响,同时对比国内外典型港口发展策略,剖析上海国际航运中心发展面临的核心问题。模型分析表明,港口服务需求与空间资源供给之间的结构性矛盾已成为制约其高质量发展的关键因素。若未来能进一步推进港航资源扩能升级,优化空间资源配置条件,上海国际航运中心将有效释放江海直转运输优势,显著提升港口服务能级与长江黄金水道通航效能,降低全社会物流综合成本。这一发展路径不仅有助于推动航运业绿色转型与数智化升级,更能强化国家供应链安全保障能力,扩大高水平对外开放,为上海国际航运中心实现长远可持续发展奠定坚实基础。

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包起帆(1951—),男,教授级高级工程师,研究方向为港口物流。E-mail:
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孟舒(1990—),女,助理研究员,研究方向为港口经济。E-mail:

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孟舒(1990—),女,助理研究员,研究方向为港口经济。E-mail:

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双循环视角下上海国际航运中心港航扩能提升
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孟舒 1 , 包起帆 1 , 王天翔 2 , 廖莹 2
中国航海 | 水运工程 2025,48(4): 113-120
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中国航海 | 水运工程 2025, 48(4): 113-120
双循环视角下上海国际航运中心港航扩能提升
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孟舒1 , 包起帆1 , 王天翔2, 廖莹2
作者信息
  • 1. 华东师范大学 国际航运物流研究院,上海 200062
  • 2. 华东师范大学 统计学院,上海 200062
  • 孟舒(1990—),女,助理研究员,研究方向为港口经济。E-mail:

通讯作者:

包起帆(1951—),男,教授级高级工程师,研究方向为港口物流。E-mail:
Shanghai International Shipping Center's port and shipping capacity enhancement from the perspective of Dual Circulation
Shu MENG1 , Qifan BAO1 , Tianxiang WANG2, Ying LIAO2
Affiliations
  • 1.Academy of International Transport and Logistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • 2.School of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
出版时间: 2025-12-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.013
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在新发展格局构建的战略背景下,长江经济带是联通国内国际双循环的关键枢纽,而上海港口作为长江经济带的龙头港口与核心节点,其基础设施的战略支撑作用愈发凸显。上海国际航运中心作为我国航运业的核心载体,其服务能级提升正面临空间资源约束的瓶颈。本文通过构建港口服务强度及等待概率模型、排队模型,系统评估港口运营效率,并结合不同系统容量下船舶损失率模型量化资源约束影响,同时对比国内外典型港口发展策略,剖析上海国际航运中心发展面临的核心问题。模型分析表明,港口服务需求与空间资源供给之间的结构性矛盾已成为制约其高质量发展的关键因素。若未来能进一步推进港航资源扩能升级,优化空间资源配置条件,上海国际航运中心将有效释放江海直转运输优势,显著提升港口服务能级与长江黄金水道通航效能,降低全社会物流综合成本。这一发展路径不仅有助于推动航运业绿色转型与数智化升级,更能强化国家供应链安全保障能力,扩大高水平对外开放,为上海国际航运中心实现长远可持续发展奠定坚实基础。

双循环  /  长江经济带  /  港航扩能提升  /  降低物流成本  /  高水平对外开放

To foster a new development paradigm, the Yangtze River Economic Belt serves as a crucial hub connecting the domestic and international circulations. As the leading port and core node of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Shanghai Port's strategic role as one of the most critical infrastructure has become increasingly prominent. The Shanghai International Shipping Center is facing a bottleneck of spatial resource constraints in upgrading its service capacity. This paper evaluates port operational efficiency by constructing models for port service intensity, waiting probability, and queuing theory. It quantifies the impact of resource constraints using a ship loss rate model under different system capacities, while comparing development strategies of typical domestic and foreign ports to analyze the core challenges confronting the Shanghai International Shipping Center. Model analysis indicates that the structural contradiction between port service demand and spatial resource supply has become a key constraint on its high-quality development. Looking ahead, the expansion and upgrading of port-shipping resources and optimizing spatial resource allocation will enable the Shanghai International Shipping Center to effectively unleash the advantages of direct river-sea transportation, significantly improve port service capacity and the navigation efficiency of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, and reduce the comprehensive logistics costs of the whole society. This development path will not only promote the green transformation and digital-intelligent upgrading of the shipping industry but also strengthen the country's supply chain security and expand high-level opening-up, laying a solid foundation for the long-term and sustainable development of the Shanghai International Shipping Center.

dual circulations  /  Yangtze River Economic Belt  /  port-shipping capacity expansion and upgrading  /  logistics cost reduction  /  high-level opening-up
孟舒, 包起帆, 王天翔, 廖莹. 双循环视角下上海国际航运中心港航扩能提升. 中国航海, 2025 , 48 (4) : 113 -120 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.013
Shu MENG, Qifan BAO, Tianxiang WANG, Ying LIAO. Shanghai International Shipping Center's port and shipping capacity enhancement from the perspective of Dual Circulation[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (4) : 113 -120 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.013
  • 国家重点研发计划重点专项(2023YFC3208500)
  • 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(40500-20104-222573)
2025年第48卷第4期
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.013
  • 接收时间:2024-12-19
  • 首发时间:2026-03-17
  • 出版时间:2025-12-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-19
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项(2023YFC3208500)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(40500-20104-222573)
作者信息
    1. 华东师范大学 国际航运物流研究院,上海 200062
    2. 华东师范大学 统计学院,上海 200062

通讯作者:

包起帆(1951—),男,教授级高级工程师,研究方向为港口物流。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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