Article(id=1241381051113721988, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, issueId=1241381046445470068, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12347/j.ycyk.20231116002, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1700064000000, receivedDateStr=2023-11-16, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773897906330, onlineDateStr=2026-03-19, pubDate=1705248000000, pubDateStr=2024-01-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773897906330, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-19, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773897906330, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773897906330, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241381046445470068, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, year='2024', volume='45', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='132', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773897905217, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773903111898, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241402884936495824, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, issueId=1241381046445470068, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241402884936495825, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, issueId=1241381046445470068, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=126, endPage=132, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241381051428294790, articleId=1241381051113721988, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, language=EN, title=Short-term Prediction of Ionospheric Clutter from High Frequency Surface Wave Radar Using OARO-GRU, columnId=1239133500033528732, journalTitle=Journal of Telemetry, Tracking and Command, columnName=Radar and Countermeasures, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Accurate prediction of ionospheric clutter is of great significance in improving the target detection performance of high-frequency surface wave radar. This paper proposes a short-term prediction model of ionospheric clutter using the Opposite Artificial Rabbits Optimization optimized Gated Recurrent Unit (OARO-GRU) network. Firstly, based on the a priori knowledge that ionospheric clutter received by high-frequency surface wave radar has chaotic characteristics, the input and output sample sets of the GRU network are constructed using the phase space reconstruction technique. Then, two improvement strategies, namely, the opposition-based learning and the Cauchy-based mutation, are incorporated to enhance the optimization capability of the original ARO, which is used to optimizthe GRU network with the values of three hyperparameters including the number of hidden layer nodes, the initial learning rate, and the maximum number of iterations. Finally, the optimized GRU network is retrained and fed into the test sample set for testing. The model is evaluated based on the given evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that compared with the other seven comparison forecast models, the proposed OARO-GRU network model has obvious superiority in prediction accuracy and reliability, and provides a new idea and method for effectively improving the target detection performance of high-frequency surface wave radar.

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电离层杂波的精确预测对提升高频地波雷达的目标探测性能具有重要推动作用。为此,提出了一种基于改进人工兔子算法优化门控循环单元 (Opposite Artificial Rabbits Optimization optimized Gated Recurrent Unit, OARO-GRU)网络的电离层杂波短期预测模型。首先,依据高频地波雷达接收到的电离层杂波具有混沌特性这一先验知识,通过相空间重构技术构造GRU网络的输入和输出样本集;然后,融入反向学习和柯西变异两种改进策略用于改善标准ARO的寻优能力,并将其用于执行GRU网络的包含隐层节点个数、初始学习速率和最大迭代次数在内的三个超参数值的优选;最后,重新训练优化后的GRU网络,输入测试样本集进行测试,并依据给定的评价指标评估模型。实测结果表明:相较于其他7种对照模型,所提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型在预测精度和可靠性上均具有明显的优越性,为有效改善高频地波雷达的目标探测性能提供了一种新的思路与方法。

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乔铁柱 1998年生,硕士研究生。

尚尚 1982年生,副教授,硕士生导师。

石依山 1999年生,硕士研究生。

刘强 1999年生,硕士研究生。

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乔铁柱 1998年生,硕士研究生。

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乔铁柱 1998年生,硕士研究生。

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尚尚 1982年生,副教授,硕士生导师。

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Knowledge-Based Systems, 2016, 96: 120-133., articleTitle=SCA: A sine cosine algorithm for solving optimization problems, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241396555505267394, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, awardId=61801196, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金项目(61801196), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241396555593347781, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, awardId=SJCX23_2138, language=CN, fundingSource=江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_2138), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241396550233027039, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241396550237221344, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, companyId=1241396550233027039, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Ocean College, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241396550245609953, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, companyId=1241396550233027039, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=江苏科技大学 海洋学院 镇江 212003)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241396554226004605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Internal structure of GRU network, figureFileSmall=LwKhxBGH53cZEIjaWwgrNQ==, figureFileBig=by2ejXKvno1k7Il8IW0Tuw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554330862213, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=CN, label=图1, caption=GRU网络内部结构, figureFileSmall=LwKhxBGH53cZEIjaWwgrNQ==, figureFileBig=by2ejXKvno1k7Il8IW0Tuw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554435719820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=The prediction result curves of different prediction models on the 82th range cell I channel, figureFileSmall=6ahHLKFeVilW/TOGvGAuEw==, figureFileBig=1k5mlqTy4rCXhUuGxBvbFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554515411601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=CN, label=图2, caption=第82距离元I通道上不同预测模型预测结果曲线, figureFileSmall=6ahHLKFeVilW/TOGvGAuEw==, figureFileBig=1k5mlqTy4rCXhUuGxBvbFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554624463513, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=The prediction result curves of different prediction models on the 82th range cell Q channel, figureFileSmall=XECialIPt1sClEHqZla6lg==, figureFileBig=G3+bMQGhPpPVVWi0nXD9JA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554762875552, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=CN, label=图3, caption=第82距离元Q通道上不同预测模型预测结果曲线, figureFileSmall=XECialIPt1sClEHqZla6lg==, figureFileBig=G3+bMQGhPpPVVWi0nXD9JA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241396554871927464, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Comparison of evaluation metrics of different prediction models in 82th range cell

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ModelsIQ
RMSEMAER2RMSEMAER2
OARO-GRU1.820 9E-051.376 2E-050.968 41.433 0E-051.095 1E-050.983 7
ARO-GRU2.277 9E-051.748 9E-050.950 61.922 0E-051.471 6E-050.970 3
AEO-GRU2.179 8E-051.656 0E-050.954 81.806 6E-051.376 2E-050.974 0
SCA-GRU2.615 5E-052.023 0E-050.934 72.005 5E-051.541 8E-050.968 0
GRU4.130 1E-053.181 8E-050.837 14.867 2E-053.773 2E-050.811 9
SVR5.847 7E-054.424 6E-050.676 05.528 4E-054.253 2E-050.758 7
ELM5.890 6E-054.466 6E-050.671 25.785 3E-054.452 0E-050.735 8
BPNN5.948 3E-054.503 6E-050.664 55.788 0E-054.442 9E-050.735 4
), ArticleFig(id=1241396554968396461, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

第82距离元不同预测模型评价指标对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
ModelsIQ
RMSEMAER2RMSEMAER2
OARO-GRU1.820 9E-051.376 2E-050.968 41.433 0E-051.095 1E-050.983 7
ARO-GRU2.277 9E-051.748 9E-050.950 61.922 0E-051.471 6E-050.970 3
AEO-GRU2.179 8E-051.656 0E-050.954 81.806 6E-051.376 2E-050.974 0
SCA-GRU2.615 5E-052.023 0E-050.934 72.005 5E-051.541 8E-050.968 0
GRU4.130 1E-053.181 8E-050.837 14.867 2E-053.773 2E-050.811 9
SVR5.847 7E-054.424 6E-050.676 05.528 4E-054.253 2E-050.758 7
ELM5.890 6E-054.466 6E-050.671 25.785 3E-054.452 0E-050.735 8
BPNN5.948 3E-054.503 6E-050.664 55.788 0E-054.442 9E-050.735 4
), ArticleFig(id=1241396555115197105, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Comparison of R2 value using different hybrid prediction models on other range cells

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Range-CellOARO-GRUARO-GRUAEO-GRUSCA-GRO
IQIQIQIQ
840.966 90.980 80.942 10.960 60.949 60.965 10.927 00.953 2
860.965 40.977 50.936 90.952 30.944 50.961 40.918 60.951 4
900.965 00.975 70.925 90.950 30.937 50.959 60.905 50.946 9
), ArticleFig(id=1241396555220054711, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1238841944844054536, articleId=1241381051113721988, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

其他距离元混合预测模型R2值对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
Range-CellOARO-GRUARO-GRUAEO-GRUSCA-GRO
IQIQIQIQ
840.966 90.980 80.942 10.960 60.949 60.965 10.927 00.953 2
860.965 40.977 50.936 90.952 30.944 50.961 40.918 60.951 4
900.965 00.975 70.925 90.950 30.937 50.959 60.905 50.946 9
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基于OARO-GRU网络的高频地波雷达电离层杂波短期预测
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乔铁柱 , 尚尚 , 石依山 , 刘强
遥测遥控 | 雷达与对抗 2024,45(1): 126-132
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遥测遥控 | 雷达与对抗 2024, 45(1): 126-132
基于OARO-GRU网络的高频地波雷达电离层杂波短期预测
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乔铁柱, 尚尚, 石依山, 刘强
作者信息
  • 江苏科技大学 海洋学院 镇江 212003
  • 乔铁柱 1998年生,硕士研究生。

    尚尚 1982年生,副教授,硕士生导师。

    石依山 1999年生,硕士研究生。

    刘强 1999年生,硕士研究生。

Short-term Prediction of Ionospheric Clutter from High Frequency Surface Wave Radar Using OARO-GRU
Tiezhu QIAO, Shang SHANG, Yishan SHI, Qiang LIU
Affiliations
  • Ocean College, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China
出版时间: 2024-01-15 doi: 10.12347/j.ycyk.20231116002
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电离层杂波的精确预测对提升高频地波雷达的目标探测性能具有重要推动作用。为此,提出了一种基于改进人工兔子算法优化门控循环单元 (Opposite Artificial Rabbits Optimization optimized Gated Recurrent Unit, OARO-GRU)网络的电离层杂波短期预测模型。首先,依据高频地波雷达接收到的电离层杂波具有混沌特性这一先验知识,通过相空间重构技术构造GRU网络的输入和输出样本集;然后,融入反向学习和柯西变异两种改进策略用于改善标准ARO的寻优能力,并将其用于执行GRU网络的包含隐层节点个数、初始学习速率和最大迭代次数在内的三个超参数值的优选;最后,重新训练优化后的GRU网络,输入测试样本集进行测试,并依据给定的评价指标评估模型。实测结果表明:相较于其他7种对照模型,所提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型在预测精度和可靠性上均具有明显的优越性,为有效改善高频地波雷达的目标探测性能提供了一种新的思路与方法。

高频地波雷达  /  电离层杂波预测  /  改进人工兔子算法  /  门控循环单元网络  /  短期预测

Accurate prediction of ionospheric clutter is of great significance in improving the target detection performance of high-frequency surface wave radar. This paper proposes a short-term prediction model of ionospheric clutter using the Opposite Artificial Rabbits Optimization optimized Gated Recurrent Unit (OARO-GRU) network. Firstly, based on the a priori knowledge that ionospheric clutter received by high-frequency surface wave radar has chaotic characteristics, the input and output sample sets of the GRU network are constructed using the phase space reconstruction technique. Then, two improvement strategies, namely, the opposition-based learning and the Cauchy-based mutation, are incorporated to enhance the optimization capability of the original ARO, which is used to optimizthe GRU network with the values of three hyperparameters including the number of hidden layer nodes, the initial learning rate, and the maximum number of iterations. Finally, the optimized GRU network is retrained and fed into the test sample set for testing. The model is evaluated based on the given evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that compared with the other seven comparison forecast models, the proposed OARO-GRU network model has obvious superiority in prediction accuracy and reliability, and provides a new idea and method for effectively improving the target detection performance of high-frequency surface wave radar.

High frequency surface wave radar  /  Ionospheric clutter prediction  /  Opposite artificial rabbits optimization algorithm  /  Gated recurrent unit network  /  Short-term prediction
乔铁柱, 尚尚, 石依山, 刘强. 基于OARO-GRU网络的高频地波雷达电离层杂波短期预测. 遥测遥控, 2024 , 45 (1) : 126 -132 . DOI: 10.12347/j.ycyk.20231116002
Tiezhu QIAO, Shang SHANG, Yishan SHI, Qiang LIU. Short-term Prediction of Ionospheric Clutter from High Frequency Surface Wave Radar Using OARO-GRU[J]. Journal of Telemetry, Tracking and Command, 2024 , 45 (1) : 126 -132 . DOI: 10.12347/j.ycyk.20231116002
作为一种新体制雷达,高频地波雷达(High Frequency Surface Wave Radar, HFSWR)利用高频段垂直极化电磁波沿海水传播损耗小的特点,实现对海上舰船目标及低空飞行目标远距离全天时全天候探测[1]。然而,在雷达接收到的回波数据中,除了期望目标信号外,还包含有电离层杂波、海杂波等其他干扰信号。同其他干扰信号相比,电离层杂波的覆盖范围较广且特性也更为复杂,对HFSWR探测性能的影响也最为严重[2]。因此,若能有效地抑制电离层杂波,将有助于提升HFSWR的探测性能。为更好对电离杂波进行抑制,对其实现精确预测是不可或缺的一步。文献[3]中利用实测数据首次证明了HFSWR接收到的电离杂波具有混沌特性,而这一研究成果为电离层杂波的短期预测提供了理论基础。
随着深度学习技术的发展,诸多时间序列预测模型相继被开发出来。GRU网络作为其中备受欢迎的一种,是由Cho等人在LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory,长短期记忆)网络的基础上提出的一种变体[4]。相较于LSTM网络,GRU网络虽然可调参数少、结构简单,但两者的预测性能十分接近[5]。马丽文等人基于GRU网络建立了海杂波幅度预测模型,并与ANN(Artificial Neural Network,人工神经网格)、SVM(Support Vector Machine,支持向量机)模型进行了对比,其结果表明GRU网络的预测精度最高[6]。文献[7]使用GRU网络结合注意力机制建立了航空客流量预测模型,并获得了较好的预测结果。文献[8]使用GRU网络来学习电动汽车内部电池电压的演变规律。文献[9]基于GRU网络建立了原油价格预测模型。文献[10]将GRU网络用于预测未来一段时间内风力发电输出功率,并与统计模型ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,自回归移动平均模型)进行了对比,其结果表明GRU网络的预测精度明显优于ARIMA模型。虽然GRU网络具有相对较高的预测精度,但同其他时间序列预测模型一样,其本身预测性能受到包含初始学习速率、最大迭代次数等超参数取值的制约,倘若取值选取不当,将严重影响模型的预测性能。目前,已有不少文献借助元启发式优化算法来辅助时间序列预测模型执行超参数值优选,显著提升了模型的预测精度和可靠性[11-13]。人工兔优化(Artificial Rabbits Optimization, ARO)算法,一种基于群体行为开发的元启发式优化算法,通过模仿兔子在自然界中的生存策略而执行寻优任务,具有复杂度低、灵活性强、原理简单等优点[14],但仍存在收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优等问题。为此,本文提出了融合反向学习和柯西变异两种策略用来改善标准ARO的寻优精度,随后将其用于执行GRU网络包括隐层节点个数、初始学习速率和最大迭代次数在内的3个超参数值的优选。
综上,本文根据HFSWR接收到的电离层杂波具有混沌特性这一先验知识,选用GRU网络用来学习其演化规律,为进一步提升GRU网络的预测精度和可靠性,借助OARO来优选GRU网络的超参数取值。对比文中设置的其他7种对照预测模型,测试结果表明:本文建立的OARO-GRU网络电离层杂波短期预测模型具有较高的预测精度及可靠性。
GRU网络相较于LSTM网络,仅采用重置门和更新门两个控制门来执行信息的保留与丢弃操作,具有运算速度快、待调参数少等优势[4]。具体的,重置门用于控制前一时刻隐层状态信息被丢弃的程度;更新门则用来控制前一时刻隐层状态信息被保留到当前时刻隐层状态中的程度。GRU网络内部结构如图1所示。
给定GRU网络隐层单元个数为k,当前时刻输入为xt,则当前时刻隐层状态的具体计算过程如下:
rt=σ(Wrxt+Rrht-1+br)
zt=σ(Wzxt +Rrht-1+bz)
ct=tanh((Wc(xt+(Rc(rtht-1)+bc)
ht=ztht-1 +(1k×1-zt)⊙ct
式中,rtztctht分别表示重置门输出、更新门输出、当前时刻候选集状态、当前时刻隐层状态;WrWzWc表示与输入向量连接的权重矩阵,RrRzRc表示与前一时刻隐层状态连接的权重矩阵;brbzbc表示对应的偏差向量;⊙表示哈达码乘积符号;σ(·)和tanh(·)分别表示Sigmoid激活函数、双曲正切激活函数。
对混沌时间序列执行相空间重构(Phase Space Reconstruction, PSR)是建立预测模型的第一步,其基本思想为:利用获取的单一分量在不同延时点上的观测值,将其重构为一个维数为m的相空间矢量。此外,由Takens嵌入定理可知,只要选择合适的嵌入维数,则据此重构出的相空间矢量与原动力系统相空间近似等价[15]。文中利用PSR技术构造GRU网络的输入、输出样本集,来尽可能充分地学习电离层杂波的演化规律。具体重构过程如下:
给定电离层杂波序列,则维数为的m相空间矢量Rm可表示为
式中,Xi表示相空间中的一个相点;mτ分别表示嵌入维数和嵌入延迟时间。本文选取C-C法[16]来计算mτ的取值。
为提升GRU网络的运行速度,进行输入、输出样本构造前,先对重构后的电离层杂波序列按式(6)执行归一化操作,同样,对GRU网络预测模型输出结果按式(7)执行反归一化操作。
式中,xmaxxmin分别表示观测值中的最大值、最小值;x′y′分别表示归一化后的观测值、归一化后的模型输出值及反归一化后的模型输出值。
进而,GRU网络的输入样本X及输出样本Y可表示如下:
文中建立的预测模型,其输入层节点个数等于嵌入维数m
ARO是基于兔群在自然界中的绕道觅食和随机躲藏两种生存策略而开发出来的,该算法具有实现简单、灵活性强及寻优精度高等优点,但仍存在收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优等缺陷。为此,本文提出将反向学习策略[17]和柯西变异[18]引入标准ARO中,以此来改善标准ARO的寻优性能,并将改进后的ARO标称为OARO。具体操作如下:
① 融入反向学习策略
为改善初始种群质量,提升算法的寻优速度,在种群初始化阶段融入反向学习策略。现给定种群规模为N,其数学描述如下:
OPj=lbj+ubj-Pj
式中,Pj为第j个兔子个体的初始位置(j=1,2,…,N);lbjubj分别为解空间的上界和下界;OPjPj的反向个体位置。
随后,将POP种群合并,计算合并后的每只兔子个体的适应度值,然后根据适应度值大小将个体按升序规则排序,顺次选取前N个兔子个体构成OARO的初始种群。
② 融入柯西变异策略
为改善标准ARO在寻优过程中易陷入局部最优问题,本文提出在标准ARO算法每次迭代完成后,融入柯西变异策略,对兔子个体采取变异策略,并计算变异后兔子个体的适应度值,随后与变异前个体适应度值进行对比,选择最优个体参与下一次寻优任务。其数学描述如下:
Pj_new=Pj×tan (π× ( rrand-0.5))
式中,Pj_new为变异后的兔子个体位置;rrand为(0,1)的随机数。
本文从威海高频雷达站某一时间段内观测到的多批电离层杂波数据中,选取了其中23批四个距离元上的观测数据作为数据集。雷达工作频率为5.1 MHz,四个距离元分别为82、84、86及90,观测数据分为I通道和Q通道。本文以第82距离元观测数据(共5 888个)为例,对两通道数据分别建立预测模型。以Q通道数据(共2 944个)为例,选取前19批观测数据(共2 432个)作为训练样本,对后四批观测数据(共512个)进行预测,并从训练数据中选取600个观测数据作为验证样本集。另外,为进一步验证所提模型的可靠性,又从第84、86及96距离元中,分别选取了后四批观测数据(共512个)作为测试样本集。I通道预测模型建立所需数据集的分配情况同Q通道。
实验环境配置:Windows 10企业版,Intel i7 CPU,8GB RAM;集成开发环境:MATLAB R2020b;GRU网络模型的搭建基于软件内嵌的Deep Learning Toolbox,其版本为14.1。
为衡量提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型的预测性能,本文选取了平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error, MAE)、均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)及决定系数R2(Coefficient of Determination)三种常用的评价指标,具体计算公式如下:
式中,n为测试集样本数量,yi分别为观测值和反归一化后的预测值;为测试集样本中的平均值。MAE和RMSE的值越小,表明提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型的预测性能越好;R2值大小表征观测值与预测值的拟合程度,其值越接近1,表明拟合程度越高,模型的预测性能越好。
GRU网络包含隐层节点个数、初始学习速率和最大迭代次数在内的三个超参数的取值范围分别配置为:[1,100]、[0.001,0.01]、[1,256]。输出节点个数配置为1,关于输入节点个数,通过C-C法分别计算出I通道的嵌入维数为4、Q通道的嵌入维数为6。因此,I通道预测模型的输入节点个数配置为4,Q通道配置为6。针对OARO参数配置,其种群规模N配置为5,最大迭代次数T配置为15。
为突显本文建立的OARO-GRU网络预测模型的优越性,选择了反向传播神经网络(Back Propagation Neural Network, BPNN)、支持向量回归(Support Vector Regression, SVR)、极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine, ELM)、GRU、ARO-GRU、AEO(Artificial Ecosystem Optimization)[19]-GRU、SCA(Sine Cosine Algorithm)[20]-GRU这7种预测模型作为对照组。其中,BPNN、SVR和ELM这3种单一预测模型是为突出GRU网络在电离层杂波序列预测中的优势,单一预测模型中涉及到的相关参数取值均在最佳情况下设定;ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU和SCA-GRU这3种混合预测模型是为:一方面展现混合预测模型的优势,另一方面表明OARO相较于常用的元启发式优化算法,在寻优精度上的优越性。混合预测模型中涉及到的包含种群规模、最大迭代次数及解空间范围在内的参数取值均与OARO-GRU网络预测模型参数配置一致。
为确保实验结果的可靠性,文中所有预测模型均独立运行20次。经测试,8种预测模型分别在第82距离元I通道和Q通道上的平均预测结果见表1。同时,为便于直观分析不同预测模型的输出值与实际观测值间的差距,分别绘制了如图2图3所示的预测结果曲线。
通过分析表1可以得出以下结论:① GRU更适合处理具有混沌特性的电离层杂波序列。具体的,对比GRU、SVR、ELM和BPNN这4种单一时间预测模型,GRU相较于其他3种模型,在I和Q两通道上,其RMSE、MAE的取值均最小,I通道上其值分别为4.130 1E-05、3.181 8E-05,Q通道上其值分别为4.867 2E-05、3.773 2E-05。而R2值最大,在I和Q两通道上取值分别为0.837 1、0.811 9;② 利用元启发式优化算法执行GRU网络超参数值优选,可以显著改善GRU网络的预测精度。具体的,对比ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU、SCA-GRU和GRU这4种预测模型,不论是在I通道上或是在Q通道上,前3种预测模型的RMSE、MAE及R2值均明显优于单一预测模型GRU。以ARO-GRU在Q通道上的预测结果为例,其RMSE、MAE分别为1.922 0E-05、1.471 6E-05,相较于GRU,分别减少了60.51%、61.00%,而R2值为0.970 3,相较于GRU,提升了19.52%;③ OARO-GRU网络预测模型相较于其他3种混合对比预测模型,具有较高的预测精度,同时也验证了文中针对标准ARO提出的改进策略是有效的。具体的,对比OARO-GRU、ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU和SCA-GRU这4种预测模型,在I和Q两通道上,本文提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型在3个评价指标的取值均明显优于其他3种。以OARO-GRU与AEO-GRU为例,在I通道上,OARO-GRU的RMSE、MAE取值分别为1.820 9E-05、1.376 2E-05,相较于AEO-GRU,分别减少了16.46%、16.89%,而R2值为0.968 4,相较于AEO-GRU提升了1.43%;在Q通道上,OARO-GRU网络预测模型在给定的3个评价指标上,相较于AEO-GRU,其RMSE、MAE分别减少了20.68%、20.42%,而R2值则提升了0.99%。
进一步观察图2图3所示的预测结果曲线可以看出:GRU网络输出的预测值相较于实际观测值,不论是在I通道上或是Q通道上,拟合曲线在波峰和波谷处均出现了明显的滞后现象,而其他4种混合预测模型则不存在滞后现象,再次验证了利用元启发式优化算法可以显著改善GRU网络的预测性能。另外,OARO-GRU网络预测模型相较于其他3种混合预测模型,在I和Q两通道上对实际观测值的拟合程度明显更高,突显了OARO-GRU网络具有较高预测精度的优势。
为验证OARO-GRU网络预测模型的可靠性,分别选取第84、第86和第90距离元后四批I、Q两通道实际观测数据作为验证数据集,并选取ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU和SCA-GRU这3种混合预测模型作为对照组,以R2值作为模型评价指标,测试结果见表2
观察并分析表2可以得出以下结论:①随着距离元的增加,OARO-GRU网络预测模型相较于对比模型,仍具有较高的预测精度。对比4种混合预测模型在某一距离元上的预测结果,OARO-GRU网络预测模型相较于其他3种预测模型,不论是在I通道上或是Q通道上,其R2值均优于对比模型。以第90距离元两通道上预测结果为例,OARO-GRU网络预测模型在I通道上,其R2值为0.965 0,相较于ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU和SCA-GRU网络预测模型,分别提升了4.23%、2.94%和6.58%;在Q通道上,其R2值为0.975 7,相较于上述3种对比模型,分别提升了5.11%、3.92%和7.20%;②顺次对比表2中其他3种混合预测模型,OARO-GRU网络预测模型的R2值以第82距离元作为基准,随着距离元的增加,其递减程度最低,具有较高的可靠性。具体的,在I通道上的3个验证距离元上,顺次递减0.15%、0.31%、0.35%;而ARO-GRU顺次递减0.89%、1.44%、2.60%;AEO-GRU顺次递减0.54%、1.08%、1.81%;SCA-GRU顺次递减0.82%、1.72%、3.12%。在Q通道上,OARO-GRU网络预测模型的R2值顺次递减0.29%、0.63% 、0.81%;而ARO-GRU顺次递减1.00%、1.86%、2.06%;AEO-GRU顺次递减0.91%、1.29%、1.48%;SCA-GRU顺次递减1.53%、1.71%、2.18%。
综上,本文提出的OARO-GRU网络预测模型具有较高的预测精度及可靠性。
为有效减缓电离层杂波对HFSWR的影响,进一步提升HFSWR的目标探测能力,本文利用实测电离层杂波数据,通过GRU网络结合改进ARO,建立了一种预测精度高、可靠性强的OARO-GRU电离层杂波短期预测模型。文中通过将GRU网络与SVR、BPNN和ELM这3种常用的单一时间预测模型进行对比,在第82距离元I、Q两通道上,GRU网络获得的MAE、RMSE取值均最小,而R2值最大,分别为0.837 1、0.811 9,证明了GRU网络更适合用来处理具有混沌特性的电离层杂波序列;针对标准ARO存在的收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优等问题,文中提出了两种改进策略并将改进后的新算法OARO用于执行GRU网络三个超参数值的优选,通过对比单一预测模型GRU网络,不论是在I通道上或是Q通道上,OARO-GRU网络获得的预测结果均显著优于GRU网络。以R2值为例,OARO-GRU网络在I、Q两通道上的取值分别为0.968 4、0.983 7,相较于GRU网络,对应通道上分别提升了15.69%、21.16%。因此,借助元启发式优化算法可显著提升GRU网络的预测精度;为验证OARO的优势,文中选用常用的两种同类型元启发式算法进行了对比,证明了OARO显著的寻优能力;另外,通过使用OARO-GRU网络对包含第84、86及90距离元上的电离层杂波数据进行短期预测,来验证OARO-GRU网络的可靠性。相较于ARO-GRU、AEO-GRU和SCA-GRU这3种对比模型,随着距离元的增加,OARO-GRU网络获得的R2值仍明显优于对比模型,且递减程度最低。以90距离元I通道为例,OARO-GRU网络其R2值为0.965 0,相较于对比模型,分别提高了4.23%、2.94%、6.58%;并以第82距离元I通道为基准,4种预测模型在该距离元上获得的R2值分别减少了0.35%、2.60%、1.81%和3.12%,OARO-GRU网络其R2值递减程度最低,验证了文中提出的预测模型具有较强的可靠性。本文建立的电离层杂波短期预测模型为有效改善HFSWR的探测性能提供了新的思路。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(61801196)
  • 江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_2138)
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2024年第45卷第1期
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doi: 10.12347/j.ycyk.20231116002
  • 接收时间:2023-11-16
  • 首发时间:2026-03-19
  • 出版时间:2024-01-15
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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-16
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国家自然科学基金项目(61801196)
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_2138)
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    江苏科技大学 海洋学院 镇江 212003
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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