Article(id=1271501747919987067, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1271501633826530070, articleNumber=PA20260121_Q5fufRlR, orderNo=null, doi=10.19666/j.rlfd.202506097, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1748880000000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-03, revisedDate=1751299200000, revisedDateStr=2025-07-01, acceptedDate=1751558400000, acceptedDateStr=2025-07-04, onlineDate=1762272000000, onlineDateStr=2025-11-05, pubDate=1769270400000, pubDateStr=2026-01-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1781079240063, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-06-10, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1781079240063, creator=admin, updateTime=1781079240063, updator=admin, issue=Issue{id=1271501633826530070, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, year='2026', volume='55', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='186', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=0, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1781079212860, creator=ztmeta, updateTime=1781079304307, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1271502017525657824, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1271501633826530070, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1271502017529852129, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1271501633826530070, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=122, endPage=133, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1271501749358633342, articleId=1271501747919987067, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, language=EN, title=Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on TimeVAE and 1DCNN-S-Mamba combined model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Thermal Power Generation, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=To address the challenges of meteorological-power response inaccuracy, difficulty in capturing abrupt features, and data scarcity in photovoltaic power prediction under extreme weather conditions, a hybrid prediction framework is proposed based on fuzzy C-means (FCM), maximum information coefficient (MIC), time variational auto-encoders (TimeVAE), 1D convolutional neural network (1DCNN), and simple-Mamba (S-Mamba). Firstly, meteorological features are clustered using FCM to categorize weather into four types: sunny, cloudy, snowy, and rainy. Subsequently, MIC is employed to select the optimal subset of meteorological features. To mitigate the scarcity of extreme weather samples, TimeVAE is adopted for data generation, leveraging its decomposed reconstruction mechanism to synthesize realistic time-series data. Finally, a 1DCNN-S-Mamba combined model is utilized, where 1DCNN captures short-term abrupt features through local convolution, while bidirectional state-space modeling in S-Mamba enables long-range dependency analysis for prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances both timeliness and accuracy in PV power prediction under complex weather conditions. Compared to S-Mamba, it reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) by 3.65% and 5.10%, respectively, in snowy weather scenarios., correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1271501749287330173, articleId=1271501747919987067, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, language=CN, title=基于TimeVAE的1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型光伏功率短期预测, columnId=null, journalTitle=热力发电, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=针对极端天气下光伏功率预测存在的气象响应失准、突变特征捕捉困难及数据稀缺等问题,提出一种基于模糊C均值(fuzzy C-means,FCM)、最大信息系数(maximum information coefficient,MIC)、时序变分自编码器(time variational auto-encoders,TimeVAE)、一维卷积神经网络(1D convolutional neural network,1DCNN)和simple-Mamba(S-Mamba)的组合功率预测模型。首先,通过气象特征结合FCM聚类将天气划分为晴天、多云、降雪和降雨4类;然后,结合MIC筛选出最佳气象特征子集,同时针对极端天气样本匮乏问题,采用TimeVAE进行数据生成,利用其分解式重构机制生成仿真数据;最后,使用1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型通过局部卷积捕获短时突变特征,结合双向状态空间建模实现长程依赖解析进行 预测。实验结果表明,该模型提升了复杂天气下光伏功率预测的时效性与准确性。相较于 S-Mamba,所提模型平均绝对误差和均方根误差在降雪天气下分别降低了3.65%和5.10%。, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, 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基于TimeVAE的1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型光伏功率短期预测
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许可证 1,2,3,3 , 文 中 1,2,3,3 , 王秋杰 1,2,3,3
热力发电 | 2026,55(1): 122-133
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热力发电 | 2026, 55(1): 122-133
基于TimeVAE的1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型光伏功率短期预测
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许可证1,2,3,3, 文 中1,2,3,3, 王秋杰1,2,3,3
作者信息
  • 1.三峡大学电气与新能源学院
  • 2.新能源微电网湖北省协同创新中心(三峡大学
  • 3.湖北 宜昌 443002
Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on TimeVAE and 1DCNN-S-Mamba combined model
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出版时间: 2026-01-25 doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202506097
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针对极端天气下光伏功率预测存在的气象响应失准、突变特征捕捉困难及数据稀缺等问题,提出一种基于模糊C均值(fuzzy C-means,FCM)、最大信息系数(maximum information coefficient,MIC)、时序变分自编码器(time variational auto-encoders,TimeVAE)、一维卷积神经网络(1D convolutional neural network,1DCNN)和simple-Mamba(S-Mamba)的组合功率预测模型。首先,通过气象特征结合FCM聚类将天气划分为晴天、多云、降雪和降雨4类;然后,结合MIC筛选出最佳气象特征子集,同时针对极端天气样本匮乏问题,采用TimeVAE进行数据生成,利用其分解式重构机制生成仿真数据;最后,使用1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型通过局部卷积捕获短时突变特征,结合双向状态空间建模实现长程依赖解析进行 预测。实验结果表明,该模型提升了复杂天气下光伏功率预测的时效性与准确性。相较于 S-Mamba,所提模型平均绝对误差和均方根误差在降雪天气下分别降低了3.65%和5.10%。
模糊聚类  /  时序变分自编码器  /  数据增强  /  一维卷积神经网络  /  S-Mamba
To address the challenges of meteorological-power response inaccuracy, difficulty in capturing abrupt features, and data scarcity in photovoltaic power prediction under extreme weather conditions, a hybrid prediction framework is proposed based on fuzzy C-means (FCM), maximum information coefficient (MIC), time variational auto-encoders (TimeVAE), 1D convolutional neural network (1DCNN), and simple-Mamba (S-Mamba). Firstly, meteorological features are clustered using FCM to categorize weather into four types: sunny, cloudy, snowy, and rainy. Subsequently, MIC is employed to select the optimal subset of meteorological features. To mitigate the scarcity of extreme weather samples, TimeVAE is adopted for data generation, leveraging its decomposed reconstruction mechanism to synthesize realistic time-series data. Finally, a 1DCNN-S-Mamba combined model is utilized, where 1DCNN captures short-term abrupt features through local convolution, while bidirectional state-space modeling in S-Mamba enables long-range dependency analysis for prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances both timeliness and accuracy in PV power prediction under complex weather conditions. Compared to S-Mamba, it reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) by 3.65% and 5.10%, respectively, in snowy weather scenarios.
fuzzy clustering  /  time variational auto-encoder  /  data augmentation  /  1D convolutional neural network  /  S-Mamba
许可证, 文 中, 王秋杰. 基于TimeVAE的1DCNN-S-Mamba组合模型光伏功率短期预测. 热力发电, 2026 , 55 (1) : 122 -133 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202506097
. Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on TimeVAE and 1DCNN-S-Mamba combined model[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2026 , 55 (1) : 122 -133 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202506097
  • 湖北省自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目
2026年第55卷第1期
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doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202506097
  • 接收时间:2025-06-03
  • 首发时间:2025-11-05
  • 出版时间:2026-01-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-03
  • 修回日期:2025-07-01
  • 录用日期:2025-07-04
基金
湖北省自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目
作者信息
    1.三峡大学电气与新能源学院
    2.新能源微电网湖北省协同创新中心(三峡大学
    3.湖北 宜昌 443002
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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