Article(id=1215700879085327062, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1215700878661702357, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.19666/j.rlfd.202403031, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1709395200000, receivedDateStr=2024-03-03, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1767775276203, onlineDateStr=2026-01-07, pubDate=1719244800000, pubDateStr=2024-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1767775276203, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-07, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1767775276203, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1767775276203, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1215700878661702357, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, year='2024', volume='53', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='150', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1767775276102, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1767775427616, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1215701514199417515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1215700878661702357, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1215701514199417516, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, issueId=1215700878661702357, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=21, endPage=29, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1215700879336985304, articleId=1215700879085327062, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, language=EN, title=Prediction of dust accumulation loss in photovoltaic modules based on similar days, columnId=1215700879274070743, journalTitle=Thermal Power Generation, columnName=New energy power generation technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To study the effect of dust on performance of photovoltaic power generation, a laboratory bench was built to collect daily power generation data of clean and polluted photovoltaic strings while monitoring meteorological data to analyze the influence of dust accumulation and weather on power generation performance of photovoltaic modules. The results indicate that, the increase in PM2.5 mass concentration in winter and the frequent occurrence of sandstorms in spring lead to a significant accumulation of dust on surface of the photovoltaic modules, resulting in a rapid increase in cumulative power generation losses. However, in summer, due to increased precipitation, dust is difficult to accumulate on photovoltaic modules, resulting in a slow increase in cumulative power generation losses. In addition, the DTW algorithm is employed to find similar days. Firstly, the entropy method is used to calculate the weights of each meteorological parameter. Then, the DTW values corresponding to each meteorological parameter on each historical day are calculated in reverse chronological order, multiplied by their weights, and added together to obtain the comprehensive DTW value for each historical day. By comparing the comprehensive DTW values of each historical day, the meteorological similar day that is closest to the current day is selected. In order to avoid extreme weather conditions, a portion of the dataset is selected as the validation set, and the criteria for finding similar days are optimized. The data from 9:00 to 15:00 each day is divided into three time periods for analysis, and the condition that the average solar irradiance is not less than 600 W/m2 is set. After optimization, the evaluation index determination coefficient of the prediction model is 0.83, and the root mean square error is 0.22, indicating a significant improvement in prediction performance. Finally, the algorithm is used to develop a cleaning strategy for the photovoltaic power plant. After comparing the cumulative power generation loss with the cleaning cost, it is determined that the power plant should be cleaned every 28 days under long-term non rainfall conditions.

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为研究灰尘对光伏发电性能的影响,通过搭建的实验台采集清洁与污染光伏组串每天的发电数据,同时监测气象数据,分析积灰及天气对光伏组件发电性能的影响。结果表明,冬季PM2.5质量浓度的上升和春季沙尘暴天气的频发使得光伏组件表面灰尘积累较多,累计发电量损失增长较快,而夏季由于降水增加,灰尘难以积聚在光伏组件上,累计发电量损失增长缓慢。此外,利用DTW(dynamic time warping)算法来寻找相似日。首先通过熵值法计算出各气象参数的权重,然后按日期逆序逐个计算出每个历史日各个气象参数对应的DTW值,再乘以其权重并相加得到历史日的综合DTW值。通过比较各历史日的综合DTW值,选出与当前日最接近的气象相似日。在避开极端天气的情况下,选择数据集中的一部分作为验证集,并对寻找相似日的判据进行优化,选取每天09:00—15:00的数据分为3个时间段进行分析,并设定平均太阳辐照度不小于600 W/m2的条件。优化后,预测模型的评价指标决定系数为0.83,均方根误差为0.22,预测效果显著提升。最后利用该算法为光伏电站制定清洗策略,经过累计发电量损失与清洗成本的对比,确定在长期不降雨情况下,电站应每28天进行一次清洗。

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李斌(1969),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为电站热力系统性能分析及节能优化,
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曾侨飞(1999),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为光伏组件积灰影响,

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曾侨飞(1999),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为光伏组件积灰影响,

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曾侨飞(1999),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为光伏组件积灰影响,

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Chinese Journal of Electron Devices, 2022, 45(1): 183-188., articleTitle=Short-term power forecast of photo-voltaic power generation based on weather similarity day and boosting regression tree, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1215700881325085436, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1215700881333474045, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, companyId=1215700881325085436, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Energy Power & Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1215700881337668350, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, companyId=1215700881325085436, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, 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PV modules and meteorological equipment parameters

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
设备名称参数
光伏板型号:亿晶EG-330P72-C
最大功率:330 W
开路电压:37.59 V
短路电流:9.24 A
太阳辐射测量仪NHFS15BU传感器
范围:0~2 000 W/m2
精准度:±4%
温湿度计范围:0~100%RH;–50~80 ℃
精度:±3%RH;±0.2 ℃
雨量计NHYL42BP传感器
范围:0.01~4.00 mm/min
精准度:±4%
风速仪NHFS80BP传感器
范围:0~60 m/s
精准度:±(0.02×实际风速+0.3) m/s
), ArticleFig(id=1215700888136634378, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

光伏组件及气象设备参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
设备名称参数
光伏板型号:亿晶EG-330P72-C
最大功率:330 W
开路电压:37.59 V
短路电流:9.24 A
太阳辐射测量仪NHFS15BU传感器
范围:0~2 000 W/m2
精准度:±4%
温湿度计范围:0~100%RH;–50~80 ℃
精度:±3%RH;±0.2 ℃
雨量计NHYL42BP传感器
范围:0.01~4.00 mm/min
精准度:±4%
风速仪NHFS80BP传感器
范围:0~60 m/s
精准度:±(0.02×实际风速+0.3) m/s
), ArticleFig(id=1215700888312795154, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Comprehensive DTW values for current and similar days

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
当前日相似日
2021.11.12022.3.12022.2.222021.10.30
2022.3.32 980.33
2022.3.4164.67
2022.3.5154.92
2022.3.62 696.45
), ArticleFig(id=1215700888467984410, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

当前日与相似日综合DTW值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
当前日相似日
2021.11.12022.3.12022.2.222021.10.30
2022.3.32 980.33
2022.3.4164.67
2022.3.5154.92
2022.3.62 696.45
), ArticleFig(id=1215700888598007844, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

The comprehensive DTW value of the current day and similar days within similar time periods

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
当前日相似日相似时段综合DTW值
9月3日8月28日上午22.59
9月4日8月30日上午18.94
9月5日8月12日上午60.48
9月6日9月4日中午83.74
), ArticleFig(id=1215700888673505326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1210938733613449225, articleId=1215700879085327062, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

当前日与相似日在相似时段内的综合DTW值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
当前日相似日相似时段综合DTW值
9月3日8月28日上午22.59
9月4日8月30日上午18.94
9月5日8月12日上午60.48
9月6日9月4日中午83.74
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基于相似日的光伏组件积灰损失预测
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曾侨飞 , 李斌 , 李新福 , 陈佳豪 , 杨雨昂
热力发电 | 新能源发电技术专题 2024,53(6): 21-29
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热力发电 | 新能源发电技术专题 2024, 53(6): 21-29
基于相似日的光伏组件积灰损失预测
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曾侨飞 , 李斌 , 李新福, 陈佳豪, 杨雨昂
作者信息
  • 华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,河北 保定 071003
  • 曾侨飞(1999),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为光伏组件积灰影响,

通讯作者:

李斌(1969),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为电站热力系统性能分析及节能优化,
Prediction of dust accumulation loss in photovoltaic modules based on similar days
Qiaofei ZENG , Bin LI , Xinfu LI, Jiahao CHEN, Yuang YANG
Affiliations
  • School of Energy Power & Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
出版时间: 2024-06-25 doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202403031
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为研究灰尘对光伏发电性能的影响,通过搭建的实验台采集清洁与污染光伏组串每天的发电数据,同时监测气象数据,分析积灰及天气对光伏组件发电性能的影响。结果表明,冬季PM2.5质量浓度的上升和春季沙尘暴天气的频发使得光伏组件表面灰尘积累较多,累计发电量损失增长较快,而夏季由于降水增加,灰尘难以积聚在光伏组件上,累计发电量损失增长缓慢。此外,利用DTW(dynamic time warping)算法来寻找相似日。首先通过熵值法计算出各气象参数的权重,然后按日期逆序逐个计算出每个历史日各个气象参数对应的DTW值,再乘以其权重并相加得到历史日的综合DTW值。通过比较各历史日的综合DTW值,选出与当前日最接近的气象相似日。在避开极端天气的情况下,选择数据集中的一部分作为验证集,并对寻找相似日的判据进行优化,选取每天09:00—15:00的数据分为3个时间段进行分析,并设定平均太阳辐照度不小于600 W/m2的条件。优化后,预测模型的评价指标决定系数为0.83,均方根误差为0.22,预测效果显著提升。最后利用该算法为光伏电站制定清洗策略,经过累计发电量损失与清洗成本的对比,确定在长期不降雨情况下,电站应每28天进行一次清洗。

光伏组件  /  积尘  /  气象因素  /  相似日  /  DTW算法

To study the effect of dust on performance of photovoltaic power generation, a laboratory bench was built to collect daily power generation data of clean and polluted photovoltaic strings while monitoring meteorological data to analyze the influence of dust accumulation and weather on power generation performance of photovoltaic modules. The results indicate that, the increase in PM2.5 mass concentration in winter and the frequent occurrence of sandstorms in spring lead to a significant accumulation of dust on surface of the photovoltaic modules, resulting in a rapid increase in cumulative power generation losses. However, in summer, due to increased precipitation, dust is difficult to accumulate on photovoltaic modules, resulting in a slow increase in cumulative power generation losses. In addition, the DTW algorithm is employed to find similar days. Firstly, the entropy method is used to calculate the weights of each meteorological parameter. Then, the DTW values corresponding to each meteorological parameter on each historical day are calculated in reverse chronological order, multiplied by their weights, and added together to obtain the comprehensive DTW value for each historical day. By comparing the comprehensive DTW values of each historical day, the meteorological similar day that is closest to the current day is selected. In order to avoid extreme weather conditions, a portion of the dataset is selected as the validation set, and the criteria for finding similar days are optimized. The data from 9:00 to 15:00 each day is divided into three time periods for analysis, and the condition that the average solar irradiance is not less than 600 W/m2 is set. After optimization, the evaluation index determination coefficient of the prediction model is 0.83, and the root mean square error is 0.22, indicating a significant improvement in prediction performance. Finally, the algorithm is used to develop a cleaning strategy for the photovoltaic power plant. After comparing the cumulative power generation loss with the cleaning cost, it is determined that the power plant should be cleaned every 28 days under long-term non rainfall conditions.

PV modules  /  dust accumulation  /  meteorological factors  /  similar days  /  DTW algorithm
曾侨飞, 李斌, 李新福, 陈佳豪, 杨雨昂. 基于相似日的光伏组件积灰损失预测. 热力发电, 2024 , 53 (6) : 21 -29 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202403031
Qiaofei ZENG, Bin LI, Xinfu LI, Jiahao CHEN, Yuang YANG. Prediction of dust accumulation loss in photovoltaic modules based on similar days[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2024 , 53 (6) : 21 -29 . DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202403031
气候变化是目前众多全球性挑战之一,2020年,中国宣布了“双碳”的远景目标。据统计,2023年国内光伏新增装机216.88 GW,同比增长148.1%。与常规化石能源发电不同,光伏发电高度依赖当地的气候环境与天气状况。恶劣的环境因素对光伏发电效率有很大的负面影响[1],风速、相对湿度、颗粒物浓度等[2-4]会不同程度的影响光伏组件表面的积灰。
灰尘是影响光伏发电的最大因素[5]。积灰不仅会降低光伏组件透光率,还会对其输出参数造成影响。文献[6-7]研究了灰尘沉积对光伏组件透光率的影响,结果表明,自然积尘可导致相对透光率降低8%~20%。宁会峰等[8]在兰州地区进行了关于灰尘沉降情况及其对光伏组件发电效率影响的实验研究,结果表明,在当地无降雨情况下,随着时间推移,积灰密度增加到2.068 g/m2时,输出电流下降约22.6%,平均每天下降1.51%。积灰密度不会随着暴露时间的增加而线性增加,而是在很大程度上取决于暴露期间的气候条件,降雨对灰尘积聚的影响最大,当降雨量较大时,积灰密度会下降,光伏组件发电效率增加[9-10]
目前国内外针对光伏组件的积灰问题进行了诸多研究。文献[11-12]搭建光伏电站实验台进行研究,采集清洁与积灰光伏组件的电气参数来量化积灰的影响,从而为电站制定合理的清洗计划做出数据支持。Diouf等人[13]对塞内加尔的一个光伏电站进行积灰监测实验,并计算积灰损失,通过发电量损失和清洗成本的最小化来优化清洁频率,结果显示,此光伏电站的最佳清洁周期为14天。赵波等[14]采用同样的方法,对蒙东某光伏电站建立清洗周期优化模型,得到最佳清洗周期是20.3天。
在忽略光伏组件寿命损耗的情况下,当气象条件相同时,光伏组件发电功率理论上应当相近。基于此,许多学者应用相似日方法开展了光伏发电功率和发电量的预测。文献[15]使用改进的鲸鱼算法优化长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络的超参数,从而在相似天气条件下更准确地预测光伏发电功率。文献[16]提出了一种基于相似日聚类和网格搜索算法优化的超短期光伏功率组合预测模型,该模型能较好地预测不同气象条件下光伏短期功率。文献[17]通过计算灰色关联度筛选相似日,并采用改进斑点鬣狗算法对核极限学习机的惩罚系数和核参数进行优化,建立了短期光伏输出功率预测模型。文献[18]选取影响光伏的主要因素作为输入,再利用K-均值聚类得出相似日,最后采用麻雀搜索算法(SSA)预测光伏功率短期变化。文献[19]引入总云量作为量化日天气类型的指标,计算相似度并从历史数据筛选出相似日,利用支持向量机回归(SVR)预测光伏的日发电量。文献[20]采用模糊C-均值算法对与预测日特征相似的历史数据进行聚类,并利用遗传算法(GA)优化后的BP神经网络对光伏发电系统进行建模并预测发电量。虽然这些方法取得了良好的效果,但都没有考虑积灰对光伏组件性能的影响。
Zitouni等人[21]利用人工神经网络预测积灰对光伏组件造成的功率损失。居发礼[22]使用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行积灰预测,此模型是基于当地的历史平均积灰数据建立,不足之处是只考虑了历史积灰数据,没有考虑气象因素的影响。文献[23]采用一种基于改进秃鹰算法(improved bald eagle search,IBES)优化的最小二乘支持向量(least squares support vector machine,LSSVM)的模型来预测光伏组件表面积灰密度。文献[24]采用一种基于LSSVM优化的粒子群(particle swarm optimization,PSO)算法来预测光伏组件表面积灰密度,该模型不需要大量历史数据做训练基础,但针对不同地区需要建立当地气象数据采集系统。文献[25]提出了一种采用自适应柯西变异策略的鸽群优化(pigeon-inspired optimization,PIO)算法预测光伏组件表面积灰密度,但是可预测天数有限。
尽管上述文献已经对光伏积灰的影响进行了研究,但光伏组件表面累计积灰量的测量存在诸多难题,且积灰量与光伏组件的功率损耗转换存在误差,这在一定程度上影响了对光伏系统性能评估的准确性。针对光伏积灰的问题,本文提出了基于相似日的光伏积灰损失预测方法,利用DTW(dynamic time warping)算法对内蒙某光伏电站实验台采集的2年的发电数据进行分析,找到每日对应的气象相似日,结合气象数据探究当地环境条件对光伏发电的影响,为光伏电站清洗积灰策略提供支持。
图1为内蒙某光伏电站现场的积灰监测实验台,实验系统中光伏组件标准测试条件下具体参数与气象采集设备具体参数及其测量精度见表1
图1中:右侧部分的光伏组件为清洁组串,每日定时由光伏清灰机器人进行清洁;左侧部分的光伏组件为积灰组串,保持自然积灰状态。每侧安装了一个逆变器,分别采集2个组串的交流侧和直流侧电流、工作电压、输出功率等参数。在光伏阵列旁不遮挡光伏板的地方安装了气象站,可以每分钟对太阳辐照度、环境温度、相对湿度、风速、降雨量等气象参数进行监测并传输保存。
实验台于2021年9月至2023年9月运行,采集了2年的数据,包括每块光伏板的工作电压、工作电流、输出功率、背板温度,此外还有太阳辐照度、温湿度、降雨量等天气参数。
因为长时间直接测量光伏组件表面的积灰密度存在困难,所以需要找到能够反映积灰对光伏组件性能影响的参数。目前常用的参数有积灰损失比[26],积灰损失比是一种有效的量化工具,用于评估积灰对光伏组件性能的影响。通过对组件每日运行过程中的电流和功率测量,并比较清洁侧和积灰侧的输出,可确定积灰损失。
SLE=(1Edust/Eclean)×100%
SLI=(1Idust/Iclean)×100%
式中:SLE为积灰造成的光伏组串发电量损比;Edust为积灰组串日发电量,kW·h;Eclean为清洁组串日发电量,kW·h;SLI为积灰造成的光伏组串电流损失比;Idust为积灰组串在每日工作时间内的平均工作电流,A;Iclean为清洁组串在每日工作时间内的平均工作电流,A。
图2为2021年9月至2023年9月光伏组件每日电气参数与气象参数的变化情况。气象参数包括日平均风速、日平均气温、日平均湿度、日平均PM2.5、降雨量和太阳辐照度,电气参数包括光伏组件的积灰损失比,为更直观地显示组件损失还加入了累计发电量损失,即清洁侧与积灰侧每日发电量的差值为当天的损失,累计求和即为累计发电量损失。为方便说明参数变化特征,将1年划分为4个季节:3月—5月为春季,6月—8月为夏季,9月—11月为秋季,12月至第2年2月为冬季。
图2可知,累计发电量损失在2021年和2022年的冬季、春季增长明显高于夏季和秋季。造成这一现象的原因是当地冬季PM2.5质量浓度上升,空气质量下降,同时冬季相对湿度较高,增强了空气颗粒物的粘附力,使得灰尘更易积聚在光伏组件表面[27]。而在春季的3月与4月,当地沙尘暴天气频发,且平均风速达3 m/s,进一步加剧了灰尘在光伏组件表面的积聚,从而加剧了累计发电量损失的增长。图3展示了沙尘暴天气前后光伏组件表面积灰情况的显著变化。
图3中可以直观发现,沙尘天气后光伏组件表面积灰量明显增多,对应积灰损失比与累计发电量损失剧增。在夏季随着降雨频率和降雨量的增多,积灰损失比保持较低水平,累计发电量损失缓慢增长,进入秋季后由于降雨的减少与PM2.5的增加,组件表面积灰增加,积灰损失比与累计发电量损失随之增大。
每日采集的气象参数是典型的时间序列数据,为了更准确地计算光伏组件的发电损失,本文采用DTW算法来进行处理。这是一种计算2个时间序列之间相似度的方法,现假设2个时间序列CQ,长度分别为mn,即C={c1,c2, ...cm},Q={q1,q2, ...qn}。为对齐2个序列,算法中构造了一个m×n的矩阵,矩阵的位置(i,j)用于存储点ci与点qj的距离(通常距离为欧式距离[28],即d(i,j)=(ciqj)2)。DTW算法的目的就是从矩阵中找出—条从(1,1)到(m, n)最小的一条路径(warping path)。路径W={w1, w2,, wk, , wK}是矩阵中的连续元素集合,并满足以下条件。
1)边界条件 max{m, n}≤Km+n–1;w1=(1, 1)和wk=(m, n)即开始和最后时刻的对齐是确定的,路径必须从左下角出发到右上角结束。
2)连续性 给定wk-1=(a',b'),那么对于下一个路径点wk=(a,b)需要满足(aa')≤1,(bb')≤1,即2个时序数据在对齐时,不会出现遗漏,跨越某个点进行对齐。
3)单调性 给定wk-1=(a',b'),那么对于路径的下一个点wk=(a,b),需要满足(aa')≥0、(bb')≥0,即路径上面的点必须是随着时间单调进行的。
根据上述分析,DTW算法就是要找出一条从左下角到右上角累加距离最小的一条连续路径。定义(1,1)表示(I,j)点到点的最小累加距离,即:γ(i,j)=d(ci,cj)+min{γ(i–1,j),γ(I,j–1),γ(i–1,j–1)}。
由于各气象参数对光伏组件发电性能的影响不同,因此需确定各参数的权重,进而从历史数据中找到与当前日最符合的相似日。
熵值法[29]能够客观地反映不同参数之间的差异性和重要程度。采用熵值法计算各气象参数的权重,步骤如下:
1)数据标准化处理。由于各气象参数的量纲和单位不同,因此需要对原始数据进行标准化处理,以消除这些差异。计算公式为:
Xij=Xjmin(Xj)max(Xj)min(Xj)
式中:Xj为第j项气象参数值;max(Xj)为气象参数中第j项参数的最大值;min(Xj)为气象参数中第j项参数的最小值;Xij’为当前日第j项参数标准化处理后的值。
2)归一化处理。计算公式为:
Yij=Xiji=1nXij
式中:Yij为第j项参数在当前日的比重,0≤Yij≤1。
3)计算每项参数信息熵ej和信息效用值dj。计算公式为:
ej=Ki=1nYijlnYij
dj=1ej
式中:为保证0≤ej≤1,K=1lnn
4)计算各参数权重wj。计算公式为:
wj=dji=1ndj
寻找当前日的相似日具体步骤:首先,运用熵值法计算出各气象参数的权重;随后,按日期逆序逐个计算出每个历史日各个气象参数对应的DTW值,再乘以其权重并相加得到历史日的综合DTW值。最后,通过比较各历史日的综合DTW值;选出最小值所对应的历史日作为当前日的气象相似日。
进一步可利用式(1)、式(2)计算出在同一气象条件下光伏组件的积灰损失比,由此可以得出当前气象条件下光伏组件所能达到的最大发电损失,为电站的清洗计划做出合理安排。
本文采用均方根误差(δRMSE)和决定系数(R2)来确定所用模型的精度水平。当δRMSE越接近于0时,模型的精度越高;当R2越接近1时,模型的拟合程度越高。
δRMSE=i=1n(PiPi)2n
R2=1i=1n(PiPi)2i=1n(PiPi¯)2
式中:n为总样本个数;i为样本编号(1—n);Pi为第i个样本的真实值;Pi为第i个样本的预测值;Pi¯为样本的平均值。
数据集采用实验系统采集的2021年9月29日至2023年9月29日的数据。根据2.3节熵值法计算太阳辐照度、风速、PM2.5、背板温度和相对湿度的权重,结果分别为0.691、0.110、0.144、0.038、0.017。综合各气象因素计算DTW值来寻找当前日的相似日[30]图4为相似日预测结果。
图4可知,真实值与预测值效果存在一定的偏差,尤其是在2022年冬季与2023年春季,预测值小于真实值,经过计算评价指标,整体的R2为0.58,δRMSE为1.13,预测效果偏差。表2为这2段时间选取的部分气象相似日及对应的综合DTW值。
结合图3表2发现,若当前时间段存在某些极端天气,如沙尘暴天气,会导致相似日的寻找存在一定困难,甚至无法找到当前日的相似日,所以会存在较大的误差。图5展示了2022年沙尘暴天气前后当前日与其相似日的太阳辐照度变化趋势,由图5可见,2022年3月3日和2022年3月6日这2天的太阳辐照度与其相似日相比存在显著差异,这种差异导致计算出综合DTW值偏大。
针对极端天气的情况,选择2年中最后1个月数据即2023年9月的数据作为验证集,其余数据作为训练集,图6为2023年9月积灰损失比预测结果。由图6可见,真实值与预测值存在一定的偏差,计算评价指标R2为0.47,δRMSE为0.90,说明预测效果不足。
考虑到太阳辐照度是光伏组件发电性能影响最大的因素,为了避免阴天天气或云层遮挡效应造成积灰损失计算误差,将全天中9:00—15:00共计6 h分为3个时间段,并定义9:00—10:59为上午时间段,11:00—12:59为中午时间段,13:00—14:59为下午时间段,每个时间段要求平均太阳辐照度不小于600 W/m2[21],再按照3.2节的流程找寻对应时间段的相似日,积灰损失比采用对应的相似时间段计算。
表3为9月3日至9月6日与其相似日对应时间段的综合DTW值,图7展示了表3中部分当前日与相似日在对应时间段的太阳辐照度变化。
根据图7图5可知,优化后寻找相似日的方法,明显优于全天寻找相似日的方法。表3中综合DTW值也进一步证明这一点,说明在特定时间段内,当前日与相似日的太阳辐照度变化更加接近,拟合效果更好。
图8为采用新判据后的预测结果。由图8可见,改进后得到的预测结果明显比原结果好,再计算评价指标可得R2为0.83,δRMSE为0.22。
积灰清洗的次数越多,由于清洗而产生的发电效益越大;但同时,清洗频率的增加会导致清洗费用支出增大。因此光伏电站积灰清洗基本策略为:光伏电站因清洗工作导致发电量增加而引起的经济效益的提高要大于清洗成本。
本文所研究光伏电站内共有1 216 904块光伏组件,清洗一次的成本为25万元。实验监测的积灰光伏组串由16块光伏组件组成,其清洗成本约为3.287元。上网电价为0.45元/(kW·h),此外逆变器转换效率为0.92,则实验组串直流侧累计发电量损失达到7.940 kW·h即可进行清洗。
为避免降雨的干扰,选取2022年9月后的数据进行分析。在此基础上,将预测的光伏组件发电量损失比转化为清洁侧与积灰侧的发电量差值,并与实际的发电量损失进行对比。图9展示了实际累计发电量损失与预测累计发电量损失的变化趋势。
图9可见,当积灰天数累积至28天时,光伏组件的累计发电量损失已超过7.94 kW·h。在此阶段,光伏电站的累计发电量损失将超出清洗成本。因此,将光伏组件积灰清洗周期设定为28天,不仅能够有效减少因积灰造成的发电量损失,同时还可确保清洗成本控制在合理范围内,从而提升光伏电站的经济效益。
积灰会对光伏组件运行产生负面影响,本文通过搭建光伏组件积灰监测实验台,对采集的光伏发电数据与天气参数进行了季节性分析。通过DTW算法找寻当前日的相似日,计算出光伏组件的积灰损失比,为当地光伏电站预测发电量损失提供合理的数据支持,本文主要结论如下。
1)光伏组件发电性能受到较强的季节性影响,春季初期当地易发生沙尘暴天气,导致组件积灰 损失比与累计发电量损失增长较快。当地降雨集中在夏季,所以夏季时间段积灰损失比维持在较低的水平,同时累计发电量损失呈现增长缓慢的特点。进入秋冬季后由于降雨量与降雨频率减少且PM2.5较其他季节要高,所以秋冬季光伏组件积灰也较为严重。
2)在避开极端天气的情况下,选择数据集中的一部分作为验证集,并对寻找相似日的判据进行优化,优化后预测模型的评价指标R2为0.83,δRMSE为0.22,预测效果显著提升。
数据量越多,找到更接近当前日的相似日的概率越大。推而广之,可利用DTW算法根据历史数据预测当前时间段的积灰损失。针对本文实验光伏电站,长期不降雨的情况下,该光伏电站应每28天进行1次清洗。
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2024年第53卷第6期
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doi: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202403031
  • 接收时间:2024-03-03
  • 首发时间:2026-01-07
  • 出版时间:2024-06-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-03
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    华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,河北 保定 071003

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李斌(1969),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为电站热力系统性能分析及节能优化,
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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