Article(id=1189868451201086200, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189621681917173762, issueId=1190221820944024075, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.19620/j.cnki.1000-3703.20240752, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=null, receivedDateStr=null, revisedDate=1727539200000, revisedDateStr=2024-09-29, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1761616345453, onlineDateStr=2025-10-28, pubDate=1753286400000, pubDateStr=2025-07-24, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1761616345453, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-10-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1761616345453, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1761616345453, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1190221820944024075, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189621681917173762, year='2025', volume='', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='62', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1761700595354, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1761700595354, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1, endPage=12, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1189868451524047610, articleId=1189868451201086200, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1189621681917173762, language=EN, title=A Collision Warning Strategy for Connected Vehicles at Unsignalized Intersections Considering Driver Characteristics, columnId=1189868449653396375, journalTitle=Automobile Technology, columnName=Special Topic on Obstacle Avoidance Strategies for Intelligent Driving Vehicles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Addressing the limitations of current intersection collision warning systems, including non-line-of-sight issues and limited consideration of drivers' characteristics, this paper proposes a cooperative collision warning strategy for connected vehicles at intersections, incorporating driver traits. Firstly, driving behaviors at intersections are categorized into straight and turning, and a turning speed model tailored to driver characteristics is built using the InD dataset. Secondly, vehicle turning trajectory prediction is enhanced with a constant yaw rate model and Extended Kalman Filter, while collision risks are dynamically assessed using a dual-circle vehicle geometry model based on Time Exposed to Risk. Thirdly, a two-level warning strategy grounded in non-cooperative game theory is devised, considering driver heterogeneity and dynamic interactions in unsignalized conflicts. Finally, the strategy is validated through simulations and real-vehicle tests. Results indicate the strategy successfully detected all collisions with a 100% warning rate, reduced collisions by up to 100% among diverse drivers, and decreased accidents by 95.06% and kinetic energy by 52.71% even with aggressive drivers.

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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 96 5 1.333 6.941m
无预警 33.333 46.283m
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驾驶人均为保守型时预警有效性测试结果

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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 96 5 1.333 6.941m
无预警 33.333 46.283m
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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 94 6 2 12.449m
无预警 33.33 49.437m
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驾驶人为异质型时预警有效性测试结果

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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 94 6 2 12.449m
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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 72 6 9.333 20.401m
无预警 33.333 49.223m
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驾驶人均为激进型时预警有效性测试结果

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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 72 6 9.333 20.401m
无预警 33.333 49.223m
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VA 20 30 40 20 30 30 40
VB 20 30 40 30 20 40 30
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测试车辆驾驶速度 km/h

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VA 20 30 40 20 30 30 40
VB 20 30 40 30 20 40 30
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方案 成功预警率 有效预警率 错误预警率 碰撞率
预警 100 100 2.041 0
无预警 41.667
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同为保守型驾驶人时的预警有效性测试结果 %

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方案 成功预警率 有效预警率 错误预警率 碰撞率
预警 100 100 2.041 0
无预警 41.667
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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 97.059 2 1.190 7.444m
无预警 40.476 15.741m
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同为激进型驾驶人时的预警有效性测试结果

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方案 成功预警率/% 有效预警率/% 错误预警率/% 碰撞率/% 平均碰撞动能
预警 100 97.059 2 1.190 7.444m
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方案 成功预警率 有效预警率 错误预警率 碰撞率
预警条件 100 100 7.692 0
无预警条件 47.619
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混合型驾驶人环境下预警有效性测试结果 %

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方案 成功预警率 有效预警率 错误预警率 碰撞率
预警条件 100 100 7.692 0
无预警条件 47.619
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考虑驾驶人特性的无信号交叉口网联车辆碰撞预警策略*
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王润民 1, 2 , 冯皓 2 , 凡海金 2 , 何佳浚 2
汽车技术 | 智能驾驶车辆避障策略专题 2025,(7): 1-12
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汽车技术 | 智能驾驶车辆避障策略专题 2025, (7): 1-12
考虑驾驶人特性的无信号交叉口网联车辆碰撞预警策略*
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王润民1, 2, 冯皓2, 凡海金2, 何佳浚2
作者信息
  • 1 长安大学西部交通安全与智能控制省部共建协同创新中心, 西安 710064
  • 2 长安大学信息工程学院, 西安 710064
A Collision Warning Strategy for Connected Vehicles at Unsignalized Intersections Considering Driver Characteristics
Runmin Wang1, 2, Hao Feng2, Haijin Fan2, Jiajun He2
Affiliations
  • 1 Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Traffic Safety and Intelligent Control by Province and Ministry, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064
  • 2 School of Information Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064
出版时间: 2025-07-24 doi: 10.19620/j.cnki.1000-3703.20240752
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【摘要】针对现有交叉口车辆碰撞预警机制存在非视距局限、驾驶人特性关注度低等问题,提出一种考虑驾驶人特性的交叉口网联车辆协同碰撞预警策略。首先,将车辆通过交叉口的驾驶行为划分为直线行驶和转弯行驶,基于InD数据集构建考虑驾驶人驾驶特性的车辆转弯速度模型;其次,结合恒偏航变化率模型和扩展卡尔曼滤波方法优化车辆转弯轨迹预测的性能,以风险暴露时间为指标,利用双圆车辆几何模型实现车辆动态碰撞风险检测;然后,考虑驾驶人的异质性及其在无信号冲突环境下的动态交互行为,设计基于非合作博弈的两级预警策略;最后,基于仿真和实车试验对所提出策略进行验证。结果表明:所提出策略成功检测出所有碰撞案例并触发预警,成功预警率为100%;在异质驾驶人环境下,最高降低100%的碰撞率;当驾驶人均为激进型时,仍可减少95.06%的碰撞事故,降低52.71%的平均碰撞动能。
无信号交叉口  /  网联车辆  /  碰撞预警  /  驾驶人特性  /  非合作博弈

Addressing the limitations of current intersection collision warning systems, including non-line-of-sight issues and limited consideration of drivers' characteristics, this paper proposes a cooperative collision warning strategy for connected vehicles at intersections, incorporating driver traits. Firstly, driving behaviors at intersections are categorized into straight and turning, and a turning speed model tailored to driver characteristics is built using the InD dataset. Secondly, vehicle turning trajectory prediction is enhanced with a constant yaw rate model and Extended Kalman Filter, while collision risks are dynamically assessed using a dual-circle vehicle geometry model based on Time Exposed to Risk. Thirdly, a two-level warning strategy grounded in non-cooperative game theory is devised, considering driver heterogeneity and dynamic interactions in unsignalized conflicts. Finally, the strategy is validated through simulations and real-vehicle tests. Results indicate the strategy successfully detected all collisions with a 100% warning rate, reduced collisions by up to 100% among diverse drivers, and decreased accidents by 95.06% and kinetic energy by 52.71% even with aggressive drivers.

Unsignalized intersections  /  Connected vehicles  /  Collision warning  /  Drivers' characteristics  /  Non-cooperative game
王润民, 冯皓, 凡海金, 何佳浚. 考虑驾驶人特性的无信号交叉口网联车辆碰撞预警策略*. 汽车技术, 2025 , (7) : 1 -12 . DOI: 10.19620/j.cnki.1000-3703.20240752
Runmin Wang, Hao Feng, Haijin Fan, Jiajun He. A Collision Warning Strategy for Connected Vehicles at Unsignalized Intersections Considering Driver Characteristics[J]. Automobile Technology, 2025 , (7) : 1 -12 . DOI: 10.19620/j.cnki.1000-3703.20240752
交叉口是交通网络的关键节点,其中,因缺乏时空隔离管控,无信号交叉口成为交通事故的高发区域。即使在有信号交叉口,信号灯失效或驾驶人分心等情况易使驾驶人面临无信号交叉口的通行场景。随着车联网(Vehicle to Everything,V2X)技术的发展,协作式交叉口碰撞预警(Collaborative Intersection Collision Warning,CICW)通过网联车辆间的实时信息交互,预测风险并实现协同避碰[1],有效减少了交通事故。因此,提升驾驶人的碰撞风险感知能力和应对能力,对提升无信号交叉口的交通安全具有重要意义。
目前,无信号交叉口的网联车辆碰撞预警系统的研究集中于车车碰撞风险检测和碰撞预警策略的制定。碰撞风险检测是预测车辆行为与潜在碰撞的关键,Yi等[2]提出一种改进的动态时空注意力网络模型预测车辆轨迹,研究主要考虑了车辆的直线运动,却忽略了其转弯行为,从而限制了模型在复杂交通场景中的预测准确性。Li等[3]通过加入车辆转向速度,对车辆偏航率和侧向加速度的预测结果进行修正,但未考虑驾驶人真实驾驶行为的转弯车辆速度特性,无法准确反映车辆在交叉口的行为。Qu等[4]利用碰撞时间(Time To Collision,TTC)将车辆建模为矩形,虽然增强了检测的精确度,但计算复杂度较高。
现有的碰撞预警策略基于实时风险,仅向固定主车发出警告,忽略了交通系统的整体动态,从而影响通行效率。因此,在设计预警机制时,应考虑驾驶人在交叉口的驾驶倾向,选择合适的预警车辆,有效消除事故风险。王江锋等[5]借助隐马尔可夫模型,将驾驶倾向作为特征因子融入安全距离模型,尽管能够较好地表征驾驶人在交叉口处的行为,但未顾及驾驶人异质性特征,影响了预警的适用性和可靠性[6]
本文针对基于车车通信的无信控交叉口网联车辆,在碰撞风险检测方面,使用InD(Infrastructure-based Detection)数据集[7]构建考虑驾驶人驾驶特性的车辆转弯速度模型;结合恒偏航变化率模型和扩展卡尔曼滤波[8](Extended Kalman Filter,EKF),优化车辆转弯轨迹预测的性能;采用双圆车辆模型,以风险暴露时间为基础,实现动态碰撞风险检测,平衡检测精度与计算复杂度。在碰撞预警方面,考虑驾驶人的异质性及其冲突环境下的动态交互行为,并设计基于非合作博弈的两级预警策略。同时,通过仿真平台和封闭测试场地验证本文方案的有效性。
本文构建的无信号交叉口应用场景如图1所示,交叉口为双向两车道十字路口,各入口存在直行、左转和右转3种行驶方式。所有车辆为人工驾驶,且均安装V2X通信设备和可实现碰撞预警的人机交互设备,在驾驶过程中,可实现车辆状态信息的实时交互、碰撞风险检测与预警。假设车辆在V2X通信范围内,仅有一辆车与之存在潜在冲突,主要关注两车间碰撞风险的动态变化,并分析其碰撞可能性。
在直行场景中,可将车辆视为基于运动学模型的刚体,根据实时获取的运动状态变量建立匀加速(Constant Acceleration, CA)模型,从而实现目标车辆直行轨迹预测。由车辆状态参数构成车辆状态空间方程为:
${X}_{S}=[{p}_{x}    {p}_{y}    {v}_{x}    {v}_{y}    {a}_{x}    {a}_{y}{]}^{T}$
式中:pxpy分别为车辆在xy轴方向的坐标,vxvy分别为车辆在xy轴方向的速度,axay分别为车辆在xy轴方向的加速度。
通过车辆状态空间方程构建直行车辆运动学模型:
$\begin{array}{l}{X}_{S,k+1}={X}_{S,k}+[{v}_{x}\Delta t+\frac{{a}_{x}}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}    {v}_{y}\Delta t+\frac{{a}_{y}}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}\\ {a}_{x}\Delta t    {a}_{y}\Delta t    0    \left.0\right]\end{array}$
式中:Δt为(k-1)与k时刻的时间间隔。
车辆转弯时,速度的非线性变化和偏航角的变化导致CA模型无法准确描述车辆在交叉口的转弯驾驶状态,所以本文对驾驶速度特性以及车辆偏航角变化规律建模,该场景下车辆的状态空间方程为:
${X}_{T}=\left[{p}_{x}    {p}_{y}    v    a    \theta     \omega \right]$
式中:θ为车辆偏航角,ω为车辆偏航变化率。
根据车辆状态空间方程构建转弯车辆运动学模型:
$\begin{array}{l}{X}_{T,k}={X}_{T,k-1}+\\ [\frac{-\omega vsin\theta -acos\theta +acos\left(\omega \Delta t+\theta \right)}{{\omega }^{2}}+\\ \frac{\left(\omega a\Delta t+\omega v\right)sin\left(\omega \Delta t+\theta \right)}{{\omega }^{2}}    \frac{\left(-\omega a\Delta t-\omega v\right)cos\left(\omega \Delta t+\theta \right)}{{\omega }^{2}}+\\ \frac{\omega vcos\theta -asin\theta +asin\left(\omega \Delta t+\theta \right)}{{\omega }^{2}}    \omega \Delta t    a\omega     0    \left.0\right]\end{array}$
为了更好地描述人工驾驶车辆通过交叉口的运动特性,对InD数据集中无信号交叉口环境车辆行驶轨迹数据进行统计分析,得到交叉口转弯车辆速度曲线如图2所示。
根据交叉口内车辆的运动特性,本文选用自由流车辆速度模型建模(见图3)。该模型考虑了速度剖面的几何形状,由交叉口驶入速度模型vin(t)和驶出速度模型vout(t)构成:
${v}_{in}\left(t\right)={c}_{1,in}{t}^{3}+{c}_{2,in}{t}^{2}+{c}_{3,in}t+{c}_{4,in}$
${v}_{out}\left(t\right)={c}_{1,out}{t}^{3}+{c}_{2,out}{t}^{2}+{c}_{3,out}t+{c}_{4,out}$
式中:c3,inc4,in分别为驶入和驶出模型当前时刻车辆的速度,c3,outc4,out分别为驶入和驶出模型当前时刻车辆的加速度,c1,inc2,inc1,outc2,out分别为驶入和驶出模型的未知参数。
图3可知,模型的分界由到达最低车速vmin的时刻tmin确定,根据文献[9],c1,invmin受交叉口的几何形状和驾驶人特征影响,包括车辆到达停止线的速度vint、交叉口转向角度θint、路缘半径rint、车辆与人行道的横向距离lint。假设vmin服从正态分布,则该影响因素的线性函数为:
${v}_{min}={a}_{1}+{a}_{2}{v}_{int}+{a}_{3}{\theta }_{int}+{a}_{4}{r}_{int}+{a}_{5}{l}_{int}$
基于InD数据集的真实轨迹,使用多元回归分析对左转和右转场景中最低车速的5个ai系数进行估计。c1,in的建模过程与vmin相同,同时,通过c1,in得到驶入模型vin(t)的未知参数c2,in。首先,根据vin(t)和vmin的导数为0,有$0=3{c}_{1,in}{t}_{min}^{2}+2{c}_{2,in}{t}_{min}+{c}_{3,in}$;接着,根据式(6)估算tmin;最后,联立式(1)、式(5)和式(7),计算未知参数c2,in
同理,vout(t)的初始状态为交叉口内车速的最小值vmin,最终状态为道路限速vmax,且在vminvmax处的导数为0。vout(t)的未知参数c1,outc2,out遵循伽马分布,该参数也被估计为影响因素的线性函数。使用多元回归分析对影响因素的系数进行建模验证,联立式(3)、式(6)和式(7),得到c1,outc2,out的推理模型。
本文采用基于CA的卡尔曼滤波(Kalman Filter,KF)算法对直行车辆轨迹进行预测,主要流程为:
a. 按时间节点更新预估部分,即利用状态转移矩阵获取当前状态:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{\widehat{X}}_{k}^{-}=F{\widehat{X}}_{k-1}^{-}+B{u}_{k}+{\omega }_{k}\\ {P}_{k}^{-}=F{P}_{k-1}^{-}{F}^{T}+Q\end{array}\right.$
式中:${\widehat{X}}_{k}$为(k-1)时刻的系统状态,${\widehat{X}}_{k}^{-}$为未经过步骤b修正的状态估计,F为系统的状态转移矩阵,uk为额外输入状态,B为输入控制矩阵,wkk时刻的过程噪声,${P}_{k}^{-}$k时刻的状态协方差矩阵,Q为预测噪声协方差矩阵。
b. 考虑观测值的预估状态矫正,利用预估部分获得的先验估计值与观测状态值,计算当前步长的卡尔曼增益,进行加权后获得预估校正值。
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{K}_{k}={P}_{k}^{-}{H}^{T}(H{P}_{k}^{-}{H}^{T}{+R)}^{-1}\\ {\widehat{X}}_{k}={\widehat{X}}_{k}^{-}+{K}_{k}({Z}_{k}-H{\widehat{X}}_{k}^{-})\\ {P}_{k}^{}=(I-{K}_{k}H){P}_{k}^{-}\end{array}\right.$
式中:Kkk时刻的卡尔曼增益,它决定系统更相信上一步模型预测结果还是当前系统的观测值;H为状态观测矩阵;R为观测噪声矩阵;${\widehat{X}}_{k}$为修正后的系统状态;Zkk时刻的系统观测状态;${P}_{k}^{}$k时刻更新状态协方差矩阵;I为单位矩阵。
c. 利用车载传感器获取车辆的状态信息后,若车辆当前行驶偏航率接近0,通过构建CA模型描述车辆行驶过程,并使用卡尔曼滤波算法预测后续轨迹。由式(2)得到KF算法的状态转移矩阵为:
$F=\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}1& 0& \Delta t& 0& \frac{1}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}& 0\\ 0& 1& 0& \Delta t& 0& \frac{1}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}\\ 0& 0& 1& 0& \Delta t& 0\\ 0& 0& 0& 1& 0& \Delta t\\ 0& 0& 0& 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 0& 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right]$
在CA模型的状态估计中,过程噪声为车辆的加速度变化率$\dot{a}$。对于状态变量X,将过程噪声化为矩阵:
$w={\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}\frac{1}{6}\Delta {t}^{3}& 0& \frac{1}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}& 0& \Delta t& 0\\ 0& \frac{1}{6}\Delta {t}^{3}& 0& \frac{1}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}& 0& \Delta t\end{array}\right]}^{T}\cdot \left[\begin{array}{c}{\dot{a}}_{x}\\ {\dot{a}}_{y}\end{array}\right]=Aq$
式中:${\dot{a}}_{x}$${\dot{a}}_{y}$分别为加速度变化率在x轴和y轴的分量。
d. 通过最高阶状态量对其他量的扰动进行初始化,在CA模型中,将QR矩阵分别设置为$Q=A\left[\begin{array}{cc}{\sigma }_{{\dot{a}}_{x}}^{2}& 0\\ 0& {\sigma }_{{\dot{a}}_{y}}^{2}\end{array}\right]{A}^{T}$$R=\left[\begin{array}{cc}{\sigma }_{x}^{2}& 0\\ 0& {\sigma }_{y}^{2}\end{array}\right]$。为了观测车辆的位置信息,将观测矩阵设置为$H=\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}1& 0& 0& 0& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0& 0& 0& 0\end{array}\right]$
重复上述过程,连续预测车辆的轨迹,输出经两步修正后的预测状态${\widehat{X}}_{k}$,包括车辆的位置和速度,用于下一步的风险判断。
在转弯场景中,由于标准的卡尔曼滤波假设系统的运动学模型和观测方程是线性的,难以处理车辆转弯过程中的非线性关系,而扩展卡尔曼滤波可通过线性化非线性方程进行处理。因此,本文基于EKF方法和速度特性模型进行轨迹预测,按时间节点更新的预估部分状态方程为:
Xk=f(Xk-1,uk-1)+ωk-1
式中:Xkk时刻的状态估计,Xk-1为系统在(k-1)时刻的状态,f为描述系统动态演变的状态转移函数,uk-1为(k-1)时刻的控制输入,ωk-1为过程噪声(状态转移中的随机扰动)。
观测方程为:
Zk=h(Xk)+vk
式中:vkk时刻的车辆速度,h为车辆运动学模型的观测函数。
通过在(x0y0)处的泰勒级数线性化近似,忽略高阶项,将式(13)简化为非线性函数:
$h\left(x\right)\approx h\left({x}_{0}\right)+\dot{h}\left({x}_{0}\right)(x-{x}_{0})$
当面对多元函数时,计算各偏量的偏导数,构成雅可比矩阵J,即EKF的观测矩阵:
$J=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}\frac{\partial {h}_{1}}{\partial {x}_{1}}& \frac{\partial {h}_{1}}{\partial {x}_{2}}& \cdots & \frac{\partial {h}_{1}}{\partial {x}_{n}}\\ \frac{\partial {h}_{2}}{\partial {x}_{1}}& \frac{\partial {h}_{2}}{\partial {x}_{2}}& \cdots & \frac{\partial {h}_{2}}{\partial {x}_{n}}\\ ︙& ︙& & ︙\\ \frac{\partial {h}_{n}}{\partial {x}_{1}}& \frac{\partial {h}_{n}}{\partial {x}_{2}}& \cdots & \frac{\partial {h}_{n}}{\partial {x}_{n}}\end{array}\right]$
状态协方差矩阵为:
${P}_{k}^{-}={J}_{k}{P}_{k-1}{J}_{k}^{T}+{Q}_{k}$
观测值的预估状态矫正部分,卡尔曼增益Kk和更新后的状态协方差矩阵Pk的计算方法与KF算法一致。修正后的系统预测状态为:
${\widehat{X}}_{k}={X}_{k}^{}+{K}_{k}({Z}_{k}-J{X}_{k}^{})$
为了避免长时间步预测下的误差积累,本文对转弯场景的车辆速度进行分析建模,将其作为EKF的虚拟测量,以提高多时间步长下的预测精度。该场景中车辆状态空间方程为式(3)、状态方程为式(4),使用匀加速恒偏航率模型,并使用Gipps模型[10]的期望速度vdes作为EKF的虚拟真实值进行校正。
因此EKF的相关参数如下所述。在当前的运动方程中,噪声主要来自加速度的变化率$\dot{a}$和偏航角的变化率$\dot{\omega }$,则过程噪声、噪声的协方差矩阵分别为:
$w=\left[\begin{array}{cc}\frac{1}{6}cos\theta \Delta {t}^{3}& 0\\ \frac{1}{6}cos\theta \Delta {t}^{3}& 0\\ \frac{1}{2}cos\theta \Delta {t}^{2}& 0\\ cos\theta \Delta t& 0\\ 0& \frac{1}{2}\Delta {t}^{2}\\ 0& \Delta t\end{array}\right]\cdot \left[\begin{array}{c}\dot{a}\\ \dot{\omega }\end{array}\right]=Gu$
$Q=cov\left({w}_{t}\right)=G\left[\begin{array}{cc}{\sigma }_{\dot{a}}^{2}& 0\\ 0& {\sigma }_{\dot{\omega }}^{2}\end{array}\right]{G}^{T}$
期望的速度vdes由式(5)和式(6)组成,如果t<tmin,则期望速度vdes=vin,否则vdes=vout。在EKF中,期望速度vdes为观测值输入,通过式(12)~式(19)对观测值预估状态进行修正,输出预测速度。
本文采用风险暴露时间[11](Time Exposed Time-to-collision,TET)对车辆碰撞风险进行评估,即碰撞到达时间低于安全TTC阈值的时间总和。相关公式为:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{n}_{TET}=\sum _{t=0}^{T}{\delta }_{i}\left(t\right){\tau }_{sc}\\ {\delta }_{i}\left(t\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{l}0,    else\\ 1,    \forall 0{n}_{TTC,i}\left(t\right){n}_{TTC}^{*}\end{array}\right.\\ {n}_{TTC}=\frac{\sqrt{{v}_{i}^{2}-2{a}_{i}{L}_{i}}-{v}_{i}}{{a}_{i}}\end{array}\right.$
式中:${n}_{TTC}^{*}=$ 4.5 s为TTC阈值[12]δi(t)为开关变量,${\tau }_{sc}$为时间间隔,T为碰撞时间曲线的总时间,nTTC,i(t)为车辆it时刻的碰撞到达时间,vi为车辆i的当前速度,ai为车辆i的当前加速度,Li为车辆i到达碰撞点的距离。
考虑到车辆具有一定尺寸,传统的质点模型难以准确表征车辆碰撞风险,因此,本文利用圆形-双圆[13]模型(见图4)对车辆建模,实现车车碰撞风险检测。当双圆模型满足式(21)时,可判定为有碰撞风险:
${d}_{{C}_{i,A},{C}_{j,B}}^{t}=\sqrt{({C}_{i,A}^{t}{)}^{2}+({C}_{j,B}^{t}{)}^{2}}2R,    i, j\in \left\{\mathrm{1,2}\right\}$
式中:${d}_{{C}_{i,A},{C}_{j,B}}^{t}$t时刻车辆A圆心i与车辆B圆心j间距离,R为半径(前、后圆半径相同)。
使用2.3节的轨迹预测方法,预测第k时间步长的车辆状态XA,t+k×tXB,t+k×t结合圆形-双圆模型,对各时刻的预测车辆状态进行风险判定。若满足条件,则计算风险指标,当nTET高于风险阈值时,判定风险存在。
在实际交通场景中,不同类型的驾驶人的驾驶习惯不同,对预警系统的信任度也存在差异。借助车车通信技术实时获取对方车辆的状态,结合自车状态,根据碰撞预警策略的效益函数得到不同的收益矩阵,该过程属于完全信息非合作博弈过程。通过寻找博弈收益矩阵的纳什(Nash)均衡点获得最优策略组合,从而优化碰撞预警机制。因此,本文基于非合作博弈模型设计碰撞预警策略。
基于速度v(t)的二阶导数J(t)定义驾驶人类型,其中,驾驶人类型识别系数Rdriver通过历史观测时间窗口中J(t)的标准差为:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{R}_{driver}=\sqrt{\frac{\sum _{i=1}^{n}(J{\left(i\right)-\stackrel{-}{J})}^{2}}{n}}\\ J\left(t\right)=\frac{{d}^{2}v\left(t\right)}{{d}^{2}\left(t\right)}\end{array}\right.$
式中:n为历史观测窗口,$\stackrel{-}{J}$为历史观测时间窗口J(t)的平均值。
根据车车通信获取的车辆速度,计算驾驶人在预警触发前50 m内的驾驶类型系数。当Rdriver>0.3时[14],将驾驶人类型定义为激进型;反之,则定义为保守型。
本文构建的应用场景中,将冲突车辆双方视为博弈参与者集合C={C1,C2},策略集合为参与者可采取的速度改变措施S={加速,匀速,减速}。结合异质驾驶人的驾驶倾向,从冲突车辆的安全性和交通效率角度构建博弈效益函数。
安全效益主要关注交叉口冲突的严重程度,即两车到达冲突点的时间差。当安全效益ΔTsafe越大,说明C1C2间发生碰撞的可能性越小,安全性越高,反之,安全性越低:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}\Delta {T}_{safe}=\left|{T}_{1}-{T}_{2}\right|\\            =\left|\frac{-{v}_{1,init}+\sqrt{({v}_{1,init}{)}^{2}+2{a}_{1}{L}_{1}}}{{a}_{1}}-\right.\\                  \left.\frac{-{v}_{2,init}+\sqrt{({v}_{2,init}{)}^{2}+2{a}_{2}{L}_{2}}}{{a}_{2}}\right|\\ {v}_{i}{v}_{max},    i=\mathrm{1,2}\end{array}\right.$
式中:Ti为车辆Ci到达冲突点的时间,vi,init为车辆Ci在决策前的初始速度,ai为车辆Ci在决策时刻采取的速度变化策略,Li为车辆Ci在决策时刻到达冲突点的距离,vmax为道路限速。
通过车辆Ci以加速度ai到达冲突点的时间Ti,与按照当前车辆状态匀速行驶到达冲突点的时间Tavg的差值衡量效率效益ΔTeff,反映了驾驶人期望以较快的速度通过交叉口而避免减速或等待:
$\Delta {T}_{eff,i}={T}_{i}-{T}_{avg}=\frac{\sqrt{{v}_{i,init}^{2}+2{a}_{i}{L}_{i}}-{v}_{i,init}}{{a}_{i}}-\frac{{L}_{i}}{{v}_{i,init}},    i=\mathrm{1,2}$
车辆行驶过程中,通过采取加速、匀速或减速策略调节到达冲突点的时间,效率收益ΔTeff随时间缩短而提高。
结合安全和效率效益,考虑异质型驾驶人通过交叉口的驾驶倾向,构建综合博弈效益函数:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}F=\alpha {F}_{safe}+\beta {F}_{efficiency},    \alpha +\beta =1\\ {F}_{safe}=exp\left(\Delta {T}_{safe}\right)\\ {F}_{efficiency}=1-exp\left(\Delta {T}_{eff,i}\right)\end{array}\right.$
其中,
$\alpha =\left\{\begin{array}{l}1+({R}_{driver}-1)\cdot (\Delta {T}_{safe}/M),   \Delta {T}_{safe}\le M\\               p,                              M\Delta {T}_{safe}N\\               0,                                       \Delta {T}_{safe}\ge N\end{array}\right.$
式中:FsafeFefficiency分别为行车安全收益函数和效率收益函数,αβ分别为异质驾驶人在相同环境下对于安全和效率期望的权重系数,M=1、N=5为时间差阈值[15]
权重系数α随ΔTsafe的变化趋势如图5所示,当冲突车辆到达碰撞点的时间差接近时,α取决于驾驶人类型识别系数Rdriver。当M=1、N=5时,冲突车辆到达碰撞点的时间差较短时,安全系数为p=0.4[15]。当驾驶人在感知到与对方车辆时距较小时,将优先考虑增大时距差,降低碰撞风险;若时距差较大,则更关注行驶效率,倾向于提高速度。
分析各组测试方案中单次博弈效益函数矩阵,发现预警策略会针对采取减速策略驾驶人进行风险预警,以最大化整体效益。因此,本文设计了一种两级预警机制:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{n}_{TTC}\le {n}_{TTC}^{*}\mathrm{且}{n}_{TET}\ge {n}_{TET}^{*},    \mathrm{一}\mathrm{级}\mathrm{预}\mathrm{警}\\ {n}_{TTC}\le {n}_{TT{C}_{emg}}^{*},                           \mathrm{二}\mathrm{级}\mathrm{预}\mathrm{警}\end{array}\right.$
式中:${n}_{TET}^{*}$=3 s为一级预警的TET阈值,${n}_{TT{C}_{emg}}^{*}$=1.8 s[12]为二级预警的TTC阈值。
当满足一级预警条件时,通过寻找博弈收益矩阵的纳什(Nash)均衡点,找到最优策略组合,针对采用减速策略的驾驶人进行风险预警;当满足二级预警时,通过式(22)判断驾驶人类型,同时触发不同强度的预警提示。其中,满足二级预警[16]时:对于保守型驾驶人,系统将触发二级紧急预警;对于激进型驾驶人,则触发二级强烈预警,且驾驶人类型越激进,警告效果越强烈。
为了验证本文碰撞预警策略的有效性,利用SUMO平台搭建仿真测试场景,如图6所示。其中,交叉口的车辆均为具备通信能力的人工驾驶车辆,车辆长度L=4.5 m,宽度W=1.8 m,最大限速vmax=13.89 m/s,最大加速度amax=3 m/s2。SUMO中车辆以低于跟驰模型认为安全的速度行驶,并且受限于最大加速度。
车辆在接近交叉口时严格遵守路权规则,必要时需紧急制动来避免碰撞。因此,模拟车辆在交叉口处的碰撞事件,需要手动设置车辆速度模式,从而控制车辆在交叉口的行为。本文将所有车辆速度模式设置为[1 0 0 1 1 1],表示车辆在交叉口忽略路权规则,无视其他驶向交叉口的车辆。
针对本文的车辆碰撞风险检测与预警方法,选取成功预警率PS、有效预警率PE、错误预警率PF、碰撞率CR以及平均碰撞动能AK为评价指标。其中,成功预警是对于按照预期轨迹行驶会发生碰撞的测试案例,预警系统成功触发警告;有效预警表示对于按照预期轨迹行驶会发生碰撞的测试案例,预警系统成功触发警告且驾驶人成功采取措施,从而避免碰撞;错误预警表示对于按照预期轨迹行驶不会发生碰撞的测试案例,预警系统却错误触发警告;碰撞率则反映交通事故的发生情况。相关公式为:
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}{P}_{S}=\frac{{N}_{S}}{{N}_{C}}\\ {P}_{E}=\frac{{N}_{E}}{{N}_{C}}\\ {P}_{F}=\frac{{N}_{F}}{N-{N}_{C}}\\ {C}_{R}=\frac{{N}_{C}}{N}\\ {A}_{K}=\frac{1}{{N}_{C}}\sum _{n=1}^{{N}_{C}}(\frac{1}{2}{m}_{i}{v}_{i}^{2}+\frac{1}{2}{m}_{j}{v}_{j}^{2})\end{array}\right.$
式中:NNC分别为测试案例和碰撞案例数量,NSNENF分别为成功预警案例、有效预警案例和错误预警案例数量,mimjvivj分别为冲突车辆ij的质量和发生碰撞时的速度。
为了模拟不同的驾驶工况,在随机生成的测试案例中,选取空间轨迹存在交叉的测试案例150组,可按照预期轨迹驾驶分为:发生碰撞案例50组,未发生碰撞案例100组。测试方案主要分为:
a. 测试方案1:冲突车辆驾驶人均为保守型。
b. 测试方案2:冲突车辆驾驶人为异质型。
c. 测试方案3:冲突车辆驾驶人均为激进型。
在仿真测试中,为了模拟不同类型驾驶人在一级预警后的真实驾驶反应,驾驶人接收到预警后采取如下车辆运动控制策略:
${a}_{act}=\gamma \bullet \frac{{v}^{2}}{2{d}_{int}}$
式中:v为预警车辆的速度;dint为预警车辆位置与交叉口停止线的距离;γ为预警车辆驾驶人的依从度参数,保守型驾驶人依从度为1,激进型驾驶人依从度服从均匀随机分布U~[0,0.5]。
假定冲突车辆质量为m,当冲突车辆驾驶人均为保守型时,测试结果如表1所示。对于无法避免的碰撞案例,预警策略使碰撞程度明显降低。
选取结果中某一成功预警案例的车辆轨迹数据进行分析,如图7~图9所示。在无预警工况中,冲突车辆在1 612 s时行驶路程均为300 m,由于本文设置交叉口范围为300 m,此时两车已同时处于交叉口区域内,所以可判定两车在交叉口发生碰撞。在预警工况下,本文算法对各时刻的预测车辆状态进行风险判定,累计3次检测出TTTC≤4.5 s,判定为存在风险并触发预警功能。车辆A在系统在第1 607 s出现明显制动,随着车辆A减速,TTC的变化逐渐趋于缓慢,两车间的潜在碰撞风险逐渐降低,直至碰撞风险消除。
当冲突车辆驾驶人为异质型,测试结果如表2所示。由于激进型驾驶人对预警策略依从度低,在一级预警时采取加速度较低的减速策略,更容易发生碰撞,所以该类驾驶人碰撞率会比保守型驾驶人的测试案例高。即使最终未能避免碰撞,本文预警策略依然能减少约74.818%的平均碰撞动能,碰撞程度显著降低。
通过分析异质型驾驶人预警案例,由图8~图13可知,车辆A为激进型驾驶人,车辆B为保守型驾驶人。在无预警工况中,两车在第827 s时在交叉口发生碰撞。在预警条件下,系统在第825 s时检测到潜在碰撞风险后,车辆B触发预警并引导其采取制动措施。随着车辆B减速,两车间的潜在碰撞风险逐渐降低,直至最终消除碰撞风险。上述结果验证了本文碰撞预警策略的有效性。
当冲突车辆驾驶人均为激进型时,结果如表3所示,预警策略仍然能够降低72%的碰撞风险和58.554%的平均碰撞动能,表现出良好的预警有效性。
利用封闭测试场,在受控的风险中进行开放交通环境的测试[17],交叉口实车测试场景如图14所示。该交叉口无中心线,碰撞点设定为交叉口中心位置。在初始时刻,测试车辆VAVB分别行驶于南北、东西支路。
实车试验中,仅考虑车辆直行和左转的行驶轨迹,形成了4种轨迹交叉的驾驶工况(见图15),各工况中测试车辆的速度见表4。因此,共进行28种不同驾驶工况试验,涵盖冲突和非冲突情形,各工况进行多次试验,确保结果的稳定性,充分评估本文策略的性能。
为了保证安全,每组测试车辆VB使用预先采集的驾驶状态信息与测试车辆VA进行实时信息交互。若VB收到警告信息,基于车辆运动学模型计算合理的减速轨迹,覆盖原始虚拟轨迹数据。
本文开发的碰撞预警应用软件安装于车载计算机,当检测到有潜在碰撞风险且达到预警条件时,通过车载人机界面(Human Machine Interface,HMI)向驾驶人发出语音和图像预警信息,如图16所示。
本文针对实车测试设计6种测试工况:
a. 工况1:无预警条件下驾驶人同为保守型。
b. 工况2:预警条件下驾驶人同为保守型。
c. 工况3:无预警条件下驾驶人同为激进型。
d. 工况4:预警条件下驾驶人同为激进型。
e. 工况5:无预警条件下驾驶人为异质型。
f. 工况6:预警条件下驾驶人为异质型。
实车测试主要流程为:VA从距离交叉口70 m位置出发,启动3 s后达到稳定速度;VB静止在距离交叉口30 m位置,当VA出发时,VB同步发送轨迹数据,记录双方车辆的行驶状态信息。
在无预警条件下(工况1、工况3、工况4),每种驾驶工况分别进行3次测试。在预警条件下(工况2、工况4、工况6),在VA驾驶人收到预警信息后:若VA为保守型驾驶人,将立即采取制动措施,直至警告解除后再缓慢加速;若VA为激进型驾驶人,一级预警时,VA会忽视警告并继续保持原始驾驶状态,在二级预警时,立即采取制动措施。
VB驾驶人收到预警信息后:若VB为保守型驾驶人,基于车辆运动学模型计算减速轨迹,覆盖原始的虚拟轨迹数据;若VB为激进型驾驶人,一级预警时,会忽视警告继续发送原始行驶轨迹数据,二级预警时,将基于车辆运动学模型计算合理的减速轨迹,覆盖原始的虚拟轨迹数据。
实车试验中,各驾驶工况进行3次测试,共84次测试。对于测试工况2,35次为碰撞测试,49次为非碰撞测试;对于测试工况4,34次为碰撞测试,50次为非碰撞测试;对于测试工况6,32次为碰撞测试,52次为非碰撞测试。
当驾驶人同为保守型,测试结果如表5所示,预警成功率能够达到100%,成功触发警报并提醒驾驶人采取制动措施。
通过分析直行工况的成功案例,如图17~图19所示,XY分别为测试场景中平面横、纵坐标值。两车以20 km/h的速度行驶,在预警状态下,车辆VA收到警告后迅速减速,两车最小相对距离由无预警时的0.38 m增加至14.70 m,有效避免了碰撞。
表5可知,预警条件下,测试结果存在2.041%的错误预警,通过分析直行-转弯工况下的错误预警案例(见图20),两车以40 km/h的速度行驶,阴影部分的最短距离为5.653 m,具有较高的碰撞风险。考虑到距离过近可能引发风险或驾驶人误操作,所以一定范围内该类错误警报是合理的。
当驾驶人同为激进型,测试结果如表6所示。预警成功率达到100%,但仍存在2%的错误预警率。通过分析左转-直行合流工况下的错误案例(见图21),在无预警条件下,两车以40 km/h的速度行驶,VAVB接近交叉口时质心间距离仅为4.301 m,处于危险接近状态。由于车辆间距过小可能引发危险,发出警报是必要的。
表6可知,测试结果中存在1.190%的碰撞率。在预警条件的左转交叉驾驶案例中,两车以30 km/h的速度行驶,在10 s发生碰撞,如图22~图24所示。由于VA为激进型驾驶人,在预警后未及时减速,最终导致碰撞。但预警策略依然能减少约74.818%平均碰撞动能,缓解了碰撞程度。
当驾驶人为异质型,测试结果如表7所示。成功预警率和有效预警率均为100%,测试中存在4组错误预警案例(见图25),VAVB相距最短距离分别为3.988 m、5.488 m、5.718 m和6.976 m,均属于危险接近状态。考虑到车辆间距过小可能引发潜在危险,发出警报是合理的。
因此,当驾驶人双方均为保守型时,本文方法能够准确识别所有的碰撞事件并触发预警,成功预警率为100%,有效地避免了碰撞事故;当驾驶人双方均为激进型时,对于无法避免的碰撞案例,预警策略减少约52.71%平均碰撞动能,显著降低了碰撞严重程度。对于异质型驾驶人,由于保守型驾驶人对系统预警的依从度较高,系统倾向于对保守型驾驶人发出预警,进而及时采取制动措施,使碰撞率为0。通过分析错误警案例,发现在无信号交叉口场景中,车辆通过交叉口的危险系数极高,表现为车辆间距过小,极易演化成碰撞事件,因此预警系统对此类场景及时发出警示,进一步证明了系统的可靠性。
本文通过分析InD数据集中转弯车辆的速度特性,构建了适用于交叉口的车辆速度模型,提高了模型预测的准确性;提出的基于车辆轨迹预测和风险暴露时间的网联车辆动态碰撞风险策略,增强了交叉口环境下的驾驶风险识别准确性;基于非合作博弈的两级碰撞预警策略,提升了异质驾驶人环境下碰撞预警方法的有效性。
未来,将聚焦于多车协同预警策略与通信优化,应对多车通信可能引发的网络拥塞问题,确保预警信息时效可靠。同时,在不同交通流与网联车渗透率下验证预警策略的有效性和鲁棒性。
  • *国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFB2505705)
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52232015)
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2025年第卷第7期
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doi: 10.19620/j.cnki.1000-3703.20240752
  • 首发时间:2025-10-28
  • 出版时间:2025-07-24
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  • 修回日期:2024-09-29
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*国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFB2505705)
国家自然科学基金项目(52232015)
作者信息
    1 长安大学西部交通安全与智能控制省部共建协同创新中心, 西安 710064
    2 长安大学信息工程学院, 西安 710064
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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