Article(id=1320442418957234443, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, issueId=1320442360509616480, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16016/j.2097-0927.202601125, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1769616000000, receivedDateStr=2026-01-29, revisedDate=1772726400000, revisedDateStr=2026-03-06, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1792747605312, onlineDateStr=2026-10-23, pubDate=1778774400000, pubDateStr=2026-05-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1792747605312, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1792747605312, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1792747605312, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1320442360509616480, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, year='2026', volume='48', issue='9', pageStart='1129', pageEnd='1288', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1778774400000', pubDateStr='2026-05-15', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1792747591378, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1792749835358, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1320451772548760069, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, issueId=1320442360509616480, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1320451772548760070, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, issueId=1320442360509616480, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1262, endPage=1272, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1320442419171143948, articleId=1320442418957234443, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, language=EN, title=Early origins of neurological disorders: Mendelian randomization evidence for a causal relationship between low birth weight and multiple sclerosis, columnId=1320435198676816706, journalTitle=Journal of Army Medical University, columnName=Intelligent Medicine and Prediction Model, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

With the deepening of global aging and neurological disorders having become the second leading cause of death and primary cause of disability worldwide, the prevention of neurological disorders has emerged as an increasingly critical issue. This study employed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal associations between birth weight and risk of 6 common neurological disorders, thereby providing genetic epidemiological evidence for the early origins hypothesis of neurological disorders.

Methods

This study utilized publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics. Genetic variants significantly associated with birth weight were selected as instrumental variables to construct two instrumental variable sets comprising 7-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and 60-SNP, respectively. The two-sample MR outcomes included Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Parkinson’s disease (PD), multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, migraine, and cerebrovascular disease, with all relevant data obtained from publicly available datasets on the OpenGWAS platform. Inverse variance weighting was used as the primary analysis, with robustness validation by MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode methods. Heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy were assessed using Cochran’s Q test, horizontal pleiotropy test, leave-one-out analysis, and funnel plots.

Results

In the 7-SNP analysis, genetically predicted low birth weight was associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis, with an OR of 1.323 (95%CI: 1.011 to 1.732, P=0.041) obtained using inverse variance weighting. No significant causal relationships were observed for the remaining 5 neurological disorders (AD, PD, migraine, cerebrovascular disease, and epilepsy). In the 60-SNP analysis, the findings for multiple sclerosis were consistent in direction with the aforementioned association and remained statistically significant, yielding an OR value of 1.319 (95%CI: 1.006 to 1.731, P=0.045) by inverse variance weighting. Although PD showed negative association effects in the weighted median and weighted mode methods, the results of inverse variance weighting did not reach significance (OR=0.811, 95%CI: 0.608 to 1.081, P=0.154). There were no significant causal relationships for the remaining 4 neurological disorders (AD, cerebrovascular disease, epilepsy, and migraine). Sensitivity analyses for multiple sclerosis did not indicate significant systematic pleiotropy in either the 7-SNP and 60-SNP models; heterogeneity increased after expanding from 7-SNP to 60-SNP, but leave-one-out analysis demonstrated that the pooled effect was not driven by any single SNP.

Conclusion

Genetic evidence supports a potential causal relationship between low birth weight and an increased risk of multiple sclerosis, whereas no clear causal relationships are identified with AD, epilepsy, migraine, PD, or cerebrovascular disease.

, authors=Hongyao LÜ, Xiaoyu FANG, Zheng CHEN, Chengying LI, Jiang XU, Wang GUO, Yabin CUI, Xiangyu MA, authorsList=Hongyao LÜ, Xiaoyu FANG, Zheng CHEN, Chengying LI, Jiang XU, Wang GUO, Yabin CUI, Xiangyu MA, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xiangyu MA, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=© 2026 Journal of Army Medical University, copyrightOwner=Editorial Office of Journal of Army Medical University, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1320442422333649179, articleId=1320442418957234443, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, language=CN, title=神经系统疾病的早期起源:低出生体质量与多发性硬化因果关系的孟德尔随机化研究证据, columnId=1320435199041721156, journalTitle=陆军军医大学学报, columnName=智能医学与预测模型, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

随着全球老龄化趋势不断加深以及神经系统疾病已经成为全球第二大死因和致残的首要原因,预防神经系统疾病已经成为一个日益重要的问题。采用两样本孟德尔随机化方法,旨在评估出生体质量与6种常见神经系统疾病风险之间的因果关联,为神经系统疾病的早期起源学说提供遗传流行病学证据。

方法

使用基于公开发表的全基因组关联研究汇总统计数据,选择与出生体质量显著相关的遗传变异作为工具变量,分别构建7-SNP与60-SNP 2套工具变量集。两样本孟德尔随机化结局变量包括阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病、多发性硬化、癫痫、偏头痛与脑血管病,相关数据均来源于OpenGWAS平台公开数据集。以逆方差加权法为主要分析,并采用MR Egger、加权中位数法、简单众数法和加权众数法等方法进行稳健性验证;通过Cochran’Q检验、水平多效性检验、Leave-one-out分析与漏斗图评估异质性与水平多效性。

结果

7-SNP分析结果:遗传预测的低出生体质量与多发性硬化风险升高相关,逆方差加权法所得OR值为1.323(95%CI:1.011~1.732,P=0.041);其余5种神经系统疾病未观察到显著因果关联(阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病、偏头痛、脑血管病、癫痫)。60-SNP分析结果:多发性硬化研究结果与上述关联方向一致且具有统计学显著性,逆方差加权法所得OR值为1.319(95%CI:1.006~1.731,P=0.045)。而帕金森病虽然在加权中位数法和加权众数法中出现负向关联效应,但是逆方差加权法结果未达显著[OR=0.811(95%CI:0.608~1.081),P=0.154];其余4种神经系统疾病也未观察到显著因果关系(阿尔茨海默病、脑血管病、癫痫、偏头痛)。多发性硬化的敏感性分析在7-SNP和60-SNP模型中均未提示显著的系统多效性;从7-SNP扩展至60-SNP后异质性有所增加,但Leave-one-out分析结果显示合并效应不受单一SNP驱动。

结论

遗传证据支持低出生体质量与多发性硬化风险升高存在潜在因果关联,而与阿尔茨海默病、癫痫、偏头痛、帕金森病及脑血管病未见明确因果关系。

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马翔宇,E-mail:
MA Xiangyu,E-mail:
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Inflammopharmacology, 2025, 33(9): 4941-4964., articleTitle=Immuno-nutritional therapy in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis: a translational pathway to multiple sclerosis management, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1320442422878908700, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320442422887297309, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, companyId=1320442422878908700, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Epidemiology Military Epidemiology, College of Military Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1320442422895685918, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, companyId=1320442422878908700, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)军事预防医学系军队流行病学教研室,重庆)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1320442428776100177, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Three core assumptions of Mendelian randomization, figureFileSmall=CIppVBiDlxXSVuec3IcHEw==, figureFileBig=Q5m0ubIUV6Itfab3Ozb42w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442428839014738, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=CN, label=图1, caption=孟德尔随机化的三项必要前提假设, figureFileSmall=CIppVBiDlxXSVuec3IcHEw==, figureFileBig=Q5m0ubIUV6Itfab3Ozb42w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442429048729939, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Results of 7-SNP Mendelian randomization analysis for birth weight and neurological disorders, figureFileSmall=mnZZN9sDbI/hodjgLuPX/A==, figureFileBig=7lYxbYYz1vplRRjAqHc6nQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442429115838804, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=CN, label=图2, caption=7-SNP组出生体质量与神经系统疾病的MR分析结果

A: Multiple sclerosis; B: Parkinson’s disease; C: Alzheimer’s disease; D: Cerebrovascular disease; E: Epilepsy; F: Migraine

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A: Multiple sclerosis; B: Parkinson’s disease; C: Alzheimer’s disease; D: Cerebrovascular disease; E: Epilepsy; F: Migraine

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A: 7-SNP; B: 60-SNP

, figureFileSmall=PB3hNKWFclq7IBs1UW5krA==, figureFileBig=wKAii/Ib4/qVRlr/spwAhg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442429434605913, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=EN, label=Figure 5, caption=Scatter plot of causal association between birth weight and multiple sclerosis, figureFileSmall=vJIJLbyRAoan9TWtFdYHVA==, figureFileBig=Xv9MGjFRWphWS4DiNdsUTw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442429505909082, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=CN, label=图5, caption=出生体质量与多发性硬化因果关联的散点图

A: 7-SNP; B: 60-SNP

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A: 7-SNP; B: 60-SNP

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A: 7-SNP; B: 60-SNP

, figureFileSmall=1zwq5dMJvpnKRp+2Tvj5Bw==, figureFileBig=k3YDNoD3TlzATA0Dtfix7Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1320442429828870495, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Summary of GWAS data for neurological disorders

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
Neurological disordersOpenGWAS IDCasesControls
Alzheimer’s diseaseieu-b-5067954487 331
Parkinson’s diseaseieu-b-733 674449 056
Multiple sclerosisieu-b-1847 42968 374
Epilepsyukb-b-16002 326460 684
Migraineukb-d-G431 072360 122
Cerebrovascular diseasefinn-b-I9_CEREBVASC15 724303 068
), ArticleFig(id=1320442429895979360, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1319373162502258839, articleId=1320442418957234443, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

神经系统疾病的GWAS数据汇总

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
Neurological disordersOpenGWAS IDCasesControls
Alzheimer’s diseaseieu-b-5067954487 331
Parkinson’s diseaseieu-b-733 674449 056
Multiple sclerosisieu-b-1847 42968 374
Epilepsyukb-b-16002 326460 684
Migraineukb-d-G431 072360 122
Cerebrovascular diseasefinn-b-I9_CEREBVASC15 724303 068
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神经系统疾病的早期起源:低出生体质量与多发性硬化因果关系的孟德尔随机化研究证据
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吕宏尧 , 房晓瑜 , 陈峥 , 李成英 , 许江 , 郭旺 , 崔雅斌 , 马翔宇
陆军军医大学学报 | 智能医学与预测模型 2026,48(9): 1262-1272
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陆军军医大学学报 |智能医学与预测模型 2026 , 48 (9) : 1262 -1272
神经系统疾病的早期起源:低出生体质量与多发性硬化因果关系的孟德尔随机化研究证据
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吕宏尧, 房晓瑜, 陈峥, 李成英, 许江, 郭旺, 崔雅斌, 马翔宇
作者信息
  • 1陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)军事预防医学系军队流行病学教研室,重庆
通讯作者:
马翔宇,E-mail:
MA Xiangyu,E-mail:
Early origins of neurological disorders: Mendelian randomization evidence for a causal relationship between low birth weight and multiple sclerosis
Hongyao LÜ, Xiaoyu FANG, Zheng CHEN, Chengying LI, Jiang XU, Wang GUO, Yabin CUI, Xiangyu MA
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Epidemiology Military Epidemiology, College of Military Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
出版时间: 2026-05-15 doi: 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202601125
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目的

随着全球老龄化趋势不断加深以及神经系统疾病已经成为全球第二大死因和致残的首要原因,预防神经系统疾病已经成为一个日益重要的问题。采用两样本孟德尔随机化方法,旨在评估出生体质量与6种常见神经系统疾病风险之间的因果关联,为神经系统疾病的早期起源学说提供遗传流行病学证据。

方法

使用基于公开发表的全基因组关联研究汇总统计数据,选择与出生体质量显著相关的遗传变异作为工具变量,分别构建7-SNP与60-SNP 2套工具变量集。两样本孟德尔随机化结局变量包括阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病、多发性硬化、癫痫、偏头痛与脑血管病,相关数据均来源于OpenGWAS平台公开数据集。以逆方差加权法为主要分析,并采用MR Egger、加权中位数法、简单众数法和加权众数法等方法进行稳健性验证;通过Cochran’Q检验、水平多效性检验、Leave-one-out分析与漏斗图评估异质性与水平多效性。

结果

7-SNP分析结果:遗传预测的低出生体质量与多发性硬化风险升高相关,逆方差加权法所得OR值为1.323(95%CI:1.011~1.732,P=0.041);其余5种神经系统疾病未观察到显著因果关联(阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病、偏头痛、脑血管病、癫痫)。60-SNP分析结果:多发性硬化研究结果与上述关联方向一致且具有统计学显著性,逆方差加权法所得OR值为1.319(95%CI:1.006~1.731,P=0.045)。而帕金森病虽然在加权中位数法和加权众数法中出现负向关联效应,但是逆方差加权法结果未达显著[OR=0.811(95%CI:0.608~1.081),P=0.154];其余4种神经系统疾病也未观察到显著因果关系(阿尔茨海默病、脑血管病、癫痫、偏头痛)。多发性硬化的敏感性分析在7-SNP和60-SNP模型中均未提示显著的系统多效性;从7-SNP扩展至60-SNP后异质性有所增加,但Leave-one-out分析结果显示合并效应不受单一SNP驱动。

结论

遗传证据支持低出生体质量与多发性硬化风险升高存在潜在因果关联,而与阿尔茨海默病、癫痫、偏头痛、帕金森病及脑血管病未见明确因果关系。

出生体质量  /  神经系统疾病  /  孟德尔随机化  /  多发性硬化  /  因果关联
Objective

With the deepening of global aging and neurological disorders having become the second leading cause of death and primary cause of disability worldwide, the prevention of neurological disorders has emerged as an increasingly critical issue. This study employed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal associations between birth weight and risk of 6 common neurological disorders, thereby providing genetic epidemiological evidence for the early origins hypothesis of neurological disorders.

Methods

This study utilized publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics. Genetic variants significantly associated with birth weight were selected as instrumental variables to construct two instrumental variable sets comprising 7-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and 60-SNP, respectively. The two-sample MR outcomes included Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Parkinson’s disease (PD), multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, migraine, and cerebrovascular disease, with all relevant data obtained from publicly available datasets on the OpenGWAS platform. Inverse variance weighting was used as the primary analysis, with robustness validation by MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode methods. Heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy were assessed using Cochran’s Q test, horizontal pleiotropy test, leave-one-out analysis, and funnel plots.

Results

In the 7-SNP analysis, genetically predicted low birth weight was associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis, with an OR of 1.323 (95%CI: 1.011 to 1.732, P=0.041) obtained using inverse variance weighting. No significant causal relationships were observed for the remaining 5 neurological disorders (AD, PD, migraine, cerebrovascular disease, and epilepsy). In the 60-SNP analysis, the findings for multiple sclerosis were consistent in direction with the aforementioned association and remained statistically significant, yielding an OR value of 1.319 (95%CI: 1.006 to 1.731, P=0.045) by inverse variance weighting. Although PD showed negative association effects in the weighted median and weighted mode methods, the results of inverse variance weighting did not reach significance (OR=0.811, 95%CI: 0.608 to 1.081, P=0.154). There were no significant causal relationships for the remaining 4 neurological disorders (AD, cerebrovascular disease, epilepsy, and migraine). Sensitivity analyses for multiple sclerosis did not indicate significant systematic pleiotropy in either the 7-SNP and 60-SNP models; heterogeneity increased after expanding from 7-SNP to 60-SNP, but leave-one-out analysis demonstrated that the pooled effect was not driven by any single SNP.

Conclusion

Genetic evidence supports a potential causal relationship between low birth weight and an increased risk of multiple sclerosis, whereas no clear causal relationships are identified with AD, epilepsy, migraine, PD, or cerebrovascular disease.

birth weight  /  neurological disorders  /  Mendelian randomization  /  multiple sclerosis  /  causal association
吕宏尧, 房晓瑜, 陈峥, 李成英, 许江, 郭旺, 崔雅斌, 马翔宇. 神经系统疾病的早期起源:低出生体质量与多发性硬化因果关系的孟德尔随机化研究证据. 陆军军医大学学报, 2026 , 48 (9) : 1262 -1272 . DOI: 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202601125
Hongyao LÜ, Xiaoyu FANG, Zheng CHEN, Chengying LI, Jiang XU, Wang GUO, Yabin CUI, Xiangyu MA. Early origins of neurological disorders: Mendelian randomization evidence for a causal relationship between low birth weight and multiple sclerosis[J]. Journal of Army Medical University, 2026 , 48 (9) : 1262 -1272 . DOI: 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202601125
随着全球老龄化趋势不断加深,人均寿命也在持续延长,神经系统健康问题越来越受到关注,已经成为当前公共卫生领域必须面对的重大挑战之一[1]。根据联合国的预测,到2050年,全球65岁以上的老年人口将达到17亿,接近总人口的五分之一[2]。这样大规模的人口结构转变,不仅意味着更多人会经历与年龄相关的大脑功能下降,也可能进一步加重神经系统疾病的总体负担。
事实上,神经系统疾病是目前全球第二大死因,同时也是致残的首要原因[3]。2021年全球疾病负担研究显示,大约43%的人患有至少一种神经系统疾病,病例总数比1990年增加了59%[4]。在这些患者中,中老年人所占比例尤其高,像阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer’s disease,AD)、帕金森病(Parkinson’s disease,PD)这类神经退行性疾病,以及脑血管病(cerebrovascular disease,CVD),其发病风险都随着年龄增长而明显升高[5]。
近年来,越来越多的研究开始把目光投向生命早期。有证据提示,一个人在成年甚至老年时的大脑健康状况,可能早在胎儿期就已悄然定型。这一思路源自“健康与疾病的发育起源(Developmental Origins of Health and Disease,DOHaD)”假说;该理论认为,宫内环境会对个体远期健康产生持久影响[6]。出生体质量作为衡量胎儿营养和发育状况的关键指标,不仅关系到新生儿能否顺利存活,还被大量研究发现与成年后患糖尿病[7]、心血管疾病[8]等慢病的风险密切相关。然而,出生体质量是否真的会影响神经系统疾病的发生,目前还没有明确答案。虽然既往研究发现,出生体质量与神经系统疾病之间存在关联,但这种关联是否反映因果关系仍有待阐明[9]。更为重要的是,此类关联性易受多种混杂因素影响,包括家庭社会经济地位、母亲孕期行为模式以及儿童成长环境等。同时,难以明确出生体质量与疾病风险之间是否存在直接的因果关系,还是由其他潜在因素所导致[10]。
因此,本研究采用孟德尔随机化(Mendelian randomization,MR)方法,以遗传变异作为工具变量,消除观察性研究易受混杂因素和反向因果偏倚的影响[11],系统评估出生体质量与6种常见的神经系统疾病之间的潜在因果关系。本研究旨在为揭示神经系统疾病的早期起源学说提供遗传流行病学证据,并为贯穿全生命周期的脑健康干预策略提供理论支撑与新的研究视角。
本研究基于公开发布的全基因组关联研究(Genome-Wide Association Study, GWAS)汇总统计数据,未涉及个体层面数据,因此无需伦理审批[12]。为减少人群混杂偏倚,所有分析限定于欧洲血统人群[13]。
暴露变量(出生体质量):①采用2个高质量GWAS中与出生体质量显著相关的单核苷酸多态性(single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP)作为工具变量。第一组SNPs来自HORIKOSHI等[14]发表于Nature Genetics的研究,包含7个独立且经验证的出生体质量相关SNPs;第二组SNPs源自HORIKOSHI等[15](2016)在Nature报道的60个出生体质量相关SNPs。②筛选强相关SNPs,设置F>10为存在强相关性[16]。F值计算公式为F=(R2/K)×(N-K-1)/(1-R2);其中N为样本量,R2为工具变量解释的表型在总体中的方差,K为工具变量的数量。7-SNP组中,R2=0.007 6,N=69 308,K=7;经计算,F值约为76,远大于阈值10。60-SNP组中,R2=0.020 0,N=143 677,K=60;经计算,F值约为47,同样远大于阈值10。因此2组暴露变量均不存在弱工具变量偏倚。③这2项既往研究以P<5×10-8为阈值,并进行了连锁不平衡处理后,筛选与出生体质量显著相关的SNPs。2组SNPs与结局变量均无直接相关。
结局变量(神经系统疾病):通过OpenGWAS平台(https://gwas.mrcieu.ac.uk/)检索6种常见神经系统疾病的GWAS汇总数据,依据样本量、研究质量及发布时间,最终纳入AD(ieu-b-5067)、PD(ieu-b-7)、多发性硬化(multiple sclerosis,MS,ieu-b-18)、癫痫(ukb-b-1600)、偏头痛(ukb-d-G43)和CVD(finn-b-I9_CEREBVASC)共6个数据集。详见表1。
MR利用遗传变异作为工具变量,推断暴露因素与结局之间的因果关系[17],其有效性依赖于以下三大核心假设[18]:①相关性假设,所选SNPs与暴露因素强相关;②独立性假设,SNPs不受混杂因素影响;③排他性限制假设,SNPs仅通过暴露因素影响结局,无直接通路或水平多效性(图1)。
本研究采用两样本MR方法进行因果效应估计。主要分析采用逆方差加权法(inverse-variance weighted, IVW),该方法在满足MR假设时具有最优统计效能;并辅以以下敏感性分析方法:MR Egger(可检测并校正方向性多效性)、加权中位数法、简单众数法与加权众数法[19]。为评估结果稳健性及潜在多效性偏倚,本研究还进行了以下分析:①异质性检验,采用Cochran’s Q检验评估SNPs间的异质性,若P>0.05,说明纳入的SNPs无显著异质性。②Leave-one-out分析,逐一剔除单个SNP后重新进行MR分析,观察因果效应OR值是否由某一个SNP驱动而发生显著变化。③水平多效性检验,若截距项P>0.05,说明未检测到显著的系统性水平多效性。④漏斗图,搭配上述3种检验,确定模型稳健性。所有分析在R 4.4.2软件中通过“TwoSampleMR”包(版本0.6.8)完成。统计学显著性设定为P<0.05。
以出生体质量为暴露因素,分别对6种神经系统疾病进行两样本MR分析。在利用“TwoSampleMR”包的“harmonise_data”函数进行数据协调时,针对回文SNPs(A/T或C/G位点),通过比对暴露与结局数据集中的效应等位基因频率(effect allele frequency, EAF)来推断并校正链方向;对于因EAF接近0.5导致方向无法明确判断的歧义回文SNPs,以及存在其他数据缺失或不匹配的SNPs,均予以剔除。经过以上严格筛选后,最终纳入分析的有效SNPs数量见图2所示。
在主要分析中,IVW显示遗传预测的低出生体质量与MS风险呈正相关[OR=1.323(95%CI:1.011~1.732),P=0.041]。在补充分析中,加权中位数法、简单众数法和加权众数法的结果虽未达到统计学显著性(P>0.05),但其效应方向与IVW一致(OR>1.0)。虽然MR Egger回归分析显示效应方向与其他方法相反(OR<1.0),但该结果也没有达到统计显著性(P>0.05)。鉴于MR Egger方法通常统计效能较低,且其结果不显著,而多种主要分析方法均指向一致的正相关趋势,本研究推测低出生体质量可能是MS潜在的危险因素。
对于其余5种神经系统疾病,所有MR分析方法未发现出生体质量与其发病风险存在显著因果关联。各类分析所得OR均接近1.0,且95%CI包含1,表明在当前分析条件下,遗传决定的出生体质量变化与这5种神经系统疾病的易感性无明显因果关系。
为进一步提高统计效能并验证初步发现,本研究扩大工具变量集,使用60-SNP组,再次对6种神经系统疾病进行两样本MR分析。在将工具变量与结局数据集进行harmonization过程中因数据缺失、剔除回文SNPs等因素,删除了部分SNPs,最终有效SNPs数量如图3所示。
结果显示,在IVW中,低出生体质量与MS风险仍呈显著正向关联[OR=1.319(95%CI:1.006~1.731),P=0.045]。在补充分析中,加权中位数法、简单众数法和加权众数法的结果同样未达到统计学显著性(P>0.05),但其效应方向仍与IVW一致(OR>1.0)。虽然MR Egger回归分析显示效应方向还是与其他方法相反(OR<1.0),但该结果同样没有达到统计显著性(P>0.05)。因此,本研究判断低出生体质量是MS的危险因素。
针对PD的分析中,尽管加权众数法的结果[OR=0.597(95%CI:0.371~0.961),P=0.039]和加权中位数法的结果[OR=0.625(95%CI:0.433~0.901),P=0.012]提示存在负向关联,但是主要分析方法IVW的结果无统计学意义[OR=0.811(95%CI:0.608~1.081),P=0.154]。因此,该信号应谨慎解读,不排除是少数遗传变异的特异性影响。
对于AD、CVD、癫痫和偏头痛,所有MR方法未观察到出生体质量与其发病风险存在显著因果关系。各类分析所得OR均接近1.0,95%CI包含1,表明在当前分析框架下,遗传预测的出生体质量与这些神经系统疾病的易感性无明确关联。
为评估出生体质量与MS因果效应估计中是否存在系统性偏倚,本研究绘制了单SNP水平的漏斗图。图4A基于6个有效工具变量,图4B基于43个有效工具变量。
所有6个SNPs的效应估计位于无效线(β=0)右侧,且集中分布在合并效应值附近,未见明显离群点或小样本效应扩散现象(图4A)。尽管整体偏向正向,但点的分布形态符合存在真实因果效应时的预期模式,未提示由选择偏倚导致的异常。在扩大工具变量集后,SNPs分布范围有所增加,但高精度点仍聚集于正向区域,低精度点未呈现单侧漂移,漏斗形态总体合理(图4B)。综上,2组漏斗图均未发现显著偏倚证据,支持MR分析结果的可靠性。
为评估工具变量是否存在水平多效性(即SNPs通过非出生体质量途径影响MS风险),本研究采用MR Egger回归进行截距检验,并通过散点图可视化各SNP在暴露与结局间的效应关系。
在基于6个有效SNPs的分析中,MR Egger截距为0.020(SE=0.031,P=0.564),未达到统计学显著性(图5A)。扩展至43个SNPs后的结果,截距为0.016(SE=0.015,P=0.275),同样不显著(图5B)。2组散点图均显示,SNPs对出生体质量的效应与其对MS的效应之间无明显系统性偏离,所有估计值围绕回归线分布,散点图未显示明显的整体偏移。该结果提示所选工具变量未表现出显著的水平多效性,支持MR分析结果的可靠性。
为评估工具变量间因果效应的一致性,本研究采用 Cochran’s Q检验对出生体质量与MS的MR分析进行异质性评估。
在基于6个有效SNPs的初步分析中,IVW的Q检验结果为Q=4.51,df=5,P=0.479,提示工具变量间无显著异质性。相应地,各SNP的效应估计值方向一致,置信区间大多重叠,表明结果具有良好的内部一致性(图6A)。
在扩展至43个有效SNPs的分析中,异质性显著增加(Q=81.83,df=42,P<0.001,图6B)。这一结果提示,随着工具变量数量增多,部分SNPs可能存在多效性或其他来源的效应变异。但是,MR分析中稳健性方法所得效应方向与IVW一致,且漏斗图未显示明显偏倚模式,说明整体关联仍然具有一定的稳定性。
为评估出生体质量与MS因果效应是否受到了个别工具变量驱动,本研究采用Leave-one-out分析进行敏感性检验,即逐一剔除单个SNP后重新估计合并效应。
在基于6个有效SNPs的初步分析中,剔除任意1个SNP后,遗传预测的出生体质量与MS风险的关联方向始终保持一致(β>0),效应值波动为0.212~0.334(图7A)。尽管个别模型的P值未达显著性水平(最大P为0.154),但整体效应稳定,且原始全模型结果具有统计学意义(β=0.280,P=0.041)。
在扩展分析中,共纳入43个SNPs。Leave-one-out分析结果显示,无论剔除哪一个SNP,合并效应值始终位于无效线右侧,β稳定在0.185~0.315。所有43个剔除模型的P值为0.018~0.104(图7B)。其中25个(58%)剔除模型具有统计学显著性(P<0.05)。原始全模型估计值(β=0.277,P=0.045)正好处于该区间中心,表明结果不受任何单一SNP主导。
由此可知,无论工具变量集大小,低出生体质量对MS的潜在危险效应在排除任何一个SNP后均保持高度稳定,进一步支持该因果关联具有良好的稳健性。
本研究基于2组独立的出生体质量相关遗传工具变量(7-SNP和60-SNP),采用两样本MR方法系统评估了出生体质量与6种常见神经系统疾病之间的因果关联。结果显示,低出生体质量与MS风险升高存在稳健的遗传因果关联,而在AD、PD、癫痫、偏头痛及CVD中未观察到显著因果效应。这一发现为“DOHaD”假说在神经系统疾病领域的延伸提供了遗传流行病学的新思路。
本研究在2套遗传工具变量(7-SNP和60-SNP)下都发现,低出生体质量与较高的MS发病风险存在显著关联。并且多种敏感性分析方法未发现明显的异质性或水平多效性,说明这一因果关联较为稳健。此发现与既往观察性研究的结论一致[20],该伊朗病例对照研究显示早产儿(通常出生体质量偏低)成年后患MS的风险显著增高[OR=4.99(95%CI:1.34~18.68),P=0.017]。
本研究未发现出生体质量与AD、PD、癫痫、偏头痛、CVD之间存在显著因果关联。这一阴性结果同样具有重要的科学意义。未观察到显著因果关联并不等同于完全不存在关联,这可能反映多种不同的情况:①出生体质量对这些神经系统疾病的总体效应确实较弱或可忽略。②潜在效应可能呈现非线性、特定发育窗口或疾病亚型特异性,因而难以被当前的总体分析所捕捉。③本研究的结果也可能受到了统计效能、工具变量解释度、表型异质性或误分类等因素的影响而导致效应估计不显著。与此同时,神经退行性疾病的发生发展被认为与蛋白稳态与离子稳态失衡等进行性病理过程相关[21],提示了这些疾病的病因路径可能更多受环境因素(如生活压力、有毒环境暴露)或遗传因素驱动[22-24]。因此,出生体质量对这些疾病的潜在影响即使存在,也可能并非通过单一、可被当前MR分析所清晰识别的路径体现。后续研究可以在更大样本量、分层分析或非线性检验等框架下进一步验证这几种可能性。
本研究采用了两样本MR方法,借助遗传变异作为工具变量,从设计上绕开了观察性研究常遇到的混杂因素干扰和因果方向不清的问题[25]。为了验证结果是否可靠,本研究分别使用2套公认与出生体质量相关的GWAS数据来构建工具变量。无论基于7-SNP还是60-SNP的分析,所得结论高度一致,这增强了本研究对因果关系推断的可信度。
本研究还进行了多种敏感性分析,结果显示不存在明显的异质性或多效性(P>0.05),也没有证据表明遗传工具通过其他通路直接影响疾病结局。此外,为了避免不同人群遗传背景差异带来的干扰,所有分析都限定在欧洲血统个体中进行,这样能在一定程度上提升结果的内部效度和解释的可信度[26]。
尽管在设计上尽可能周全,但本研究还是存在一些局限:①所有遗传数据来自欧洲人群的GWAS汇总分析,推广到其他人群需谨慎[27]。②本研究虽然保证了内部效度并且避免了人群分层偏倚,但是2个工具变量集捕获的出生体质量遗传变异解释度相对较低。尽管F均>10,排除了弱工具变量偏倚的可能性,但较低的解释度可能导致因果效应估计的精确度受限,置信区间较宽,统计效能降低。这意味着本研究可能低估或高估真实的因果效应量,尤其是对于较小的效应值可能缺乏足够的检测能力。未来研究可纳入更大规模的GWAS数据或采用多变量孟德尔随机化方法,以提高工具变量的解释度并验证本研究的发现。③MR估计的是由基因决定的终生暴露效应,而现实中通过孕期干预提高出生体质量的机制可能与此并不完全一致。因此直接将遗传推断结果用于指导临床实践还需谨慎。此外,MS包含了复发缓解型、原发进展型等多种亚型,而本研究在分析中将它们合并处理了。如果将来能基于更细致的临床分型开展研究,可能会发现出生体质量对不同亚型的影响其实并不相同。
若低出生体质量与MS发病风险之间的因果关联得到进一步证实,从受孕至出生后2岁这生命早期1 000 d或许可以成为MS风险干预的关键窗口期。这一发现为孕产期营养干预提供了新的循证依据,提示孕期确保维生素D和omega-3脂肪酸等关键营养素的充足摄入,可能通过促进胎儿生长发育而降低后代MS发病风险[28-29]。此外,本研究结果强调MS的一级预防策略应前移至生命早期,而不是只关注成年期的危险因素管理。围产期环境因素对MS易感性的潜在影响值得公共卫生决策者重视。未来可探索将出生体质量等围产期指标,纳入MS高危人群筛查体系的可行性。当然,要真正理解其中的生物学机制,还需要做更多的工作。将来可以结合不同血统人群的基因组数据,长期随访的队列研究,甚至动物实验,从多个角度去验证和探索。只有这样,才有可能把生命早期的健康干预真正落到实处,为预防MS等神经系统疾病提供可行的科学依据。
综上,本研究利用遗传流行病学的方法,发现了低出生体质量可能与MS风险升高有关,这一结果为二者之间的因果关系增添了新的证据。这也意味着,DOHaD这一理论可能也适用于神经系统疾病。

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doi: 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202601125
  • 接收时间:2026-01-29
  • 首发时间:2026-10-23
  • 出版时间:2026-05-15
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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-29
  • 修回日期:2026-03-06
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    1陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)军事预防医学系军队流行病学教研室,重庆

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马翔宇,E-mail:
MA Xiangyu,E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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