Article(id=1322595186207736008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, issueId=1322595047657296718, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1712592000000, receivedDateStr=2024-04-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793260865022, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1742832000000, pubDateStr=2025-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793260865022, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793260865022, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793260865022, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322595047657296718, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, year='2025', volume='45', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='288', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1742832000000', pubDateStr='2025-03-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793260831989, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793260831989, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=74, endPage=82, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322595186409062601, articleId=1322595186207736008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=EN, title=Fast Pseudo-Dynamic Method and its Application in Seismic Stability Evaluation of Tailings Dam in Xizang, columnId=null, journalTitle=Mining Research and Development, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Earthquakes are one of the main causes leading to dynamic instability of tailings dams. Based on the pseudo-dynamic method combined with the Swedish arc method, the evaluation indexes of dynamic stability of tailings dams can be quickly determined. To improve the computational efficiency of the pseudo-dynamic method in the evaluation of slope earthquake stability, a separated critical initial phase search strategy was introduced, and a fast pseudo-dynamic method was proposed. The traditional pseudo-static method, the pseudo-static method considering the amplification factor, and the fast pseudo-dynamic method were applied respectively to evaluate the seismic stability of a tailings dam in Xizang from two angles of safety factor and failure probability. The results of numerical analysis show that the safety factors obtained by above three methods all meet the minimum stability requirements. In the view of the safety factor and the sliding area comprehensively, the results obtained by the pseudo-static method considering the amplification factor tend to be conservative. The influence of P-wave velocity on the calculation results is small. With the increase of S-wave velocity, the safety factor obtained by the fast pseudo-dynamic method gradually decreases, the failure probability gradually increases, the number of instability sliding surfaces gradually increases, and the risk sources of earthquake instability of tailings dams increase. The research results have a guiding significance for the evaluation of earthquake stability of tailings dams.

, authors=Liang XU, Liang LI, Jiahui WEN, Chunli LI, Guangming YU, authorsList=Liang XU, Liang LI, Jiahui WEN, Chunli LI, Guangming YU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Liang LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322595193510019310, articleId=1322595186207736008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=CN, title=快速拟动力法及其在西藏某尾矿坝地震稳定性评价中的应用, columnId=1226462295417598973, journalTitle=矿业研究与开发, columnName=矿山安全与环保, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

地震是导致尾矿坝动力失稳的主要原因之一。基于拟动力法结合瑞典圆弧法可以快速确定尾矿坝动力稳定性的评价指标。为提高拟动力法在边坡地震稳定性评价中的计算效率,特引入了分离式危险初始相位搜索策略,提出了快速拟动力法。分别应用传统拟静力法、考虑放大系数的拟静力法以及快速拟动力法,从安全系数与失效概率两个角度对西藏某尾矿坝进行地震稳定性评价。数值分析结果表明:3种方法所得到的尾矿坝安全系数均满足稳定性要求的最小值。从安全系数与滑动面积综合来看,由考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得到的结果偏于保守。纵波波速对计算结果影响较小,随着横波波速的增加,由快速拟动力法所得到的安全系数逐步降低,失效概率逐渐增大,失稳滑动面个数逐渐增多,尾矿坝地震失稳的风险源增多。研究成果对尾矿坝地震稳定性评价具有指导意义。

, authors=徐亮, 李亮, 文嘉辉, 李春立, 于广明, authorsList=徐亮, 李亮, 文嘉辉, 李春立, 于广明, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李亮, authorNote=

徐亮(1998—),男,山东滨州人,博士研究生,主要从事尾矿坝稳定性与边坡可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:

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李亮(1977—),男,山东济南人,博士,教授,博士研究生导师,主要从事岩土工程可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:
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徐亮(1998—),男,山东滨州人,博士研究生,主要从事尾矿坝稳定性与边坡可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:

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徐亮(1998—),男,山东滨州人,博士研究生,主要从事尾矿坝稳定性与边坡可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:

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Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2021, 150:106917., articleTitle=Pseudo-dynamic analysis of three-dimensional active earth pressures in cohesive backfills with cracks, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1322595833049100822, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322595186207736008, awardId=52171264, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金项目(52171264), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1322595833124598295, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322595186207736008, awardId=ZR2023ME007, language=CN, fundingSource=山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023ME007), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322595825218335196, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322595186207736008, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322595825226723805, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322595186207736008, companyId=1322595825218335196, language=EN, country=null, 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articleId=1322595186207736008, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

The safety factors calculated by fast pseudo-dynamic method under different ζ and vh

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
ζvh/(m/s)
100300500
1.01.8171.5361.447
2.01.8181.5431.453
3.01.8431.5471.455
), ArticleFig(id=1322595832789053973, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322595186207736008, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

不同ζ与νh下快速拟动力法计算得到的安全系数结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
ζvh/(m/s)
100300500
1.01.8171.5361.447
2.01.8181.5431.453
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快速拟动力法及其在西藏某尾矿坝地震稳定性评价中的应用
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徐亮 , 李亮 , 文嘉辉 , 李春立 , 于广明
矿业研究与开发 | 矿山安全与环保 2025,45(3): 74-82
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矿业研究与开发 |矿山安全与环保 2025 , 45 (3) : 74 -82
快速拟动力法及其在西藏某尾矿坝地震稳定性评价中的应用
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徐亮 , 李亮 , 文嘉辉, 李春立, 于广明
作者信息
  • 青岛理工大学 土木工程学院,山东 青岛市 266520
通讯作者:
李亮(1977—),男,山东济南人,博士,教授,博士研究生导师,主要从事岩土工程可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

徐亮(1998—),男,山东滨州人,博士研究生,主要从事尾矿坝稳定性与边坡可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:

Fast Pseudo-Dynamic Method and its Application in Seismic Stability Evaluation of Tailings Dam in Xizang
Liang XU , Liang LI , Jiahui WEN, Chunli LI, Guangming YU
Affiliations
  • School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266520, China
出版时间: 2025-03-25
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地震是导致尾矿坝动力失稳的主要原因之一。基于拟动力法结合瑞典圆弧法可以快速确定尾矿坝动力稳定性的评价指标。为提高拟动力法在边坡地震稳定性评价中的计算效率,特引入了分离式危险初始相位搜索策略,提出了快速拟动力法。分别应用传统拟静力法、考虑放大系数的拟静力法以及快速拟动力法,从安全系数与失效概率两个角度对西藏某尾矿坝进行地震稳定性评价。数值分析结果表明:3种方法所得到的尾矿坝安全系数均满足稳定性要求的最小值。从安全系数与滑动面积综合来看,由考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得到的结果偏于保守。纵波波速对计算结果影响较小,随着横波波速的增加,由快速拟动力法所得到的安全系数逐步降低,失效概率逐渐增大,失稳滑动面个数逐渐增多,尾矿坝地震失稳的风险源增多。研究成果对尾矿坝地震稳定性评价具有指导意义。

尾矿坝  /  拟动力法  /  边坡地震稳定性  /  安全系数  /  失效概率

Earthquakes are one of the main causes leading to dynamic instability of tailings dams. Based on the pseudo-dynamic method combined with the Swedish arc method, the evaluation indexes of dynamic stability of tailings dams can be quickly determined. To improve the computational efficiency of the pseudo-dynamic method in the evaluation of slope earthquake stability, a separated critical initial phase search strategy was introduced, and a fast pseudo-dynamic method was proposed. The traditional pseudo-static method, the pseudo-static method considering the amplification factor, and the fast pseudo-dynamic method were applied respectively to evaluate the seismic stability of a tailings dam in Xizang from two angles of safety factor and failure probability. The results of numerical analysis show that the safety factors obtained by above three methods all meet the minimum stability requirements. In the view of the safety factor and the sliding area comprehensively, the results obtained by the pseudo-static method considering the amplification factor tend to be conservative. The influence of P-wave velocity on the calculation results is small. With the increase of S-wave velocity, the safety factor obtained by the fast pseudo-dynamic method gradually decreases, the failure probability gradually increases, the number of instability sliding surfaces gradually increases, and the risk sources of earthquake instability of tailings dams increase. The research results have a guiding significance for the evaluation of earthquake stability of tailings dams.

Tailings dam  /  Pseudo-dynamic method  /  Slope earthquake stability  /  Safety factor  /  Failure probability
徐亮, 李亮, 文嘉辉, 李春立, 于广明. 快速拟动力法及其在西藏某尾矿坝地震稳定性评价中的应用. 矿业研究与开发, 2025 , 45 (3) : 74 -82 .
Liang XU, Liang LI, Jiahui WEN, Chunli LI, Guangming YU. Fast Pseudo-Dynamic Method and its Application in Seismic Stability Evaluation of Tailings Dam in Xizang[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2025 , 45 (3) : 74 -82 .
尾矿库是由一个或多个尾矿坝组成的矿山生产设施,但也是具有高势能的重大危险源。近百年来尾矿坝的溃坝率要比蓄水坝高两个数量级[1],尾矿坝事故通常会造成大量人员伤亡和重大经济损失与环境破坏,如2019年巴西Feijão Ⅰ号尾矿坝事故,造成259人死亡,泄漏1 200 万 m3尾矿;2008年山西襄汾新塔矿业尾矿坝事故,造成281人死亡,泄漏19 万 m3尾矿等[2]。作为尾矿库的支撑,尾矿坝的稳定性分析,尤其是动力稳定性分析对矿山安全生产具有重要作用。由地震引发的尾矿坝破坏也时有发生,其中巴西Feijão Ⅰ号尾矿坝事故为动力液化破坏,因此评价尾矿坝动力稳定性是保障尾矿库安全的重要内容。
尾矿坝稳定性评价与传统的边坡地震稳定评价类似。常用的方法主要有拟静力法、拟动力法、Newmark位移法和动力时程分析法。拟静力法由于具有原理简单、计算效率高等优点,在工程中得到了广泛应用[3-6],并已被纳入有关规范,但是该方法忽略了地震的波动性质。Newmark位移法将滑动体视为刚性或柔性块体,以屈服加速度为基准,对作用在块体上的地震加速度时程进行二次积分得到累积变形并用于评价边坡地震稳定性,但由于位移的标准不统一,在工程中的应用受到一定限制[7-8]。动力时程分析法是当前最为严格的边坡地震稳定评价方法,但可观的计算耗时在一定程度上限制了其应用[9-10]。拟动力方法作为拟静力法的一种改进方法,能够考虑地震的波动性质,是一种精度与效率相对平衡的计算方法。
1990年STEEDMAN等[11]提出拟动力法,将地震波视为由基底垂直入射的正弦波,以合理考量不同高程处地震作用力的波动性。从本质上而言,拟动力法是拟静力法的一种改进。拟静力法中,地震力沿高程均匀分布,而拟动力法中,地震力沿高程周期性变化。因此,许多学者将现有的边坡稳定分析方法如极限平衡法、极限分析法与拟动力思想相结合,并进行了研究与应用[12-35]。如:杨楠等[19]将拟动力法与不平衡推力法相结合,研究了横波波长、地震力放大系数等因素对不同高度边坡的影响,并得出放大系数大于1时,拟动力法结果有可能小于拟静力法结果的结论。饶平平等[12]将简化毕肖普方法与拟动力法结合,研究了抗滑桩加固边坡的地震稳定性。吴晓磊等[33]在考虑融土层弹性放大效应和阻尼特性的基础上提出了改进的拟动力法,并与传统拟动力法、拟静力法进行对比。蒋青江等[15]将严格法与拟动力法相结合,研究了水平地震波长、放大系数对边坡稳定性的影响。PAN等[24]将三维旋转破坏机制的极限分析法与拟动力法结合,计算边坡地震稳定安全系数,进而采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究了边坡地震失效概率的变化规律。上述研究成果有力推动了拟动力法在岩土工程边坡稳定分析中的应用。
由于拟动力法中地震力沿高程周期性变化,因此拟动力法安全系数亦随基底入射初始相位周期性变化。拟动力安全系数取最小值的初始相位称之为最危险相位。虽然已有研究均采用最危险相位下的拟动力安全系数评价边坡地震稳定性,但是对于最危险相位的确定鲜有明确报道,尤其是双向地震作用下,快速确定最危险相位具有显著的理论价值。根据已有文献的研究结论,由于土体中地震波的波长较长,拟动力法适用于高度较高的边坡计算。此外,蒋青江等[15]关于“放大系数大于1时,拟动力法结果有可能小于拟静力法结果的结论”需要进一步验证。
基于以上分析,并考虑到尾矿坝通常为典型的高坝,本文结合拟动力法与瑞典圆弧法,提出了考虑放大系数以及快速确定最危险相位的改进拟动力法,同时提出了考虑放大系数的拟静力法,将两种方法应用于西藏某尾矿坝地震稳定性分析,证明了快速确定最危险相位的有效性,对双向地震下,放大系数、波长等因素对尾矿坝地震稳定性的影响进行了研究,最后对拟静力法与拟动力法结果进行了对比,发现考虑放大系数后,拟静力法结果均比拟动力法结果小。
如图1所示,拟动力法考虑了地震波动效应,将横波、纵波均等效为正弦波,波的入射位置为基底,且保持垂直入射,横波与纵波的最大振幅分别为ah=khg、av=kvg,其中kh、kv分别为水平地震力系数、竖向地震力系数,g为重力加速度。设横波与纵波的卓越频率为fh、fv,其圆频率wh=2πfh、wv=2πfv,横波与纵波在土体中传播的速度分别为vh、vv。坡顶z=0,基底z=H。设基底入射时横波与纵波的初始相位为th、tv,水平与竖向地震力放大系数分别为βh、βv,考虑横波、纵波在土体中传播后,z深度土条受到的水平、竖向地震加速度eh(z,th)、ev(z,tv)为:
在图1中将边坡滑动体划分为n个土条,第i个土条的受力分析如图1右侧所示。zi0为土条顶部中心点至土坡顶部(z=0)深度,zi1为土条底部中心点至土坡顶部的深度,其中bi为土条宽度,αi为土条底部倾角,Wi为土条受到的重力,Ni为土条底部法向力,Ti为土条底部所受抗滑力,Ci为土条底部总黏聚力,φi为土条底部内摩擦角,R为圆弧半径,zc为滑动圆弧圆心的z坐标,dzi为土条积分微元体,微元体深度为zi,土条平均密度为ρi,则微元体dzi上所受的水平、竖向地震力分别为Fh(zi,th)、Fv(zi,tv),对第i个土条沿zi积分,可得到初始相位为th、tv下第i个土条所受的水平、竖向地震力Fhi(th)、Fvi(tv):
考虑土条所受力在Ni方向上的平衡:
由摩尔-库伦强度准则,土条底部能发挥的最大抗滑力为:
第i条块底部产生抗滑力矩Mri(th,tv)。由水平地震力引起的下滑力矩Mhi(th,tv)可由下述积分得到:
第i条块中,由土条重力Wi及竖向地震力Fvi(tv)引起的下滑力矩Msi:
则边坡的安全系数Fs(t)为:
公式(9)给出了给定th,tv相位下拟动力瑞典圆弧法的边坡安全系数,为合理评估给定滑动体的安全性,一般需要试算不同th和tv,并寻求最小拟动力安全系数,以合理评估边坡地震稳定性。设横波与纵波的卓越周期为Th=1.0/fh、Tv=1.0/fv,为寻求最小拟动力安全系数,一般需设定一较小的时间间隔Δt来进行遍历搜索,以Th=Tv=1 s,Δt=0.01 s为例,遍历搜索寻求最小拟动力安全系数所需的计算次数为10 000次,计算效率较低,尤其是对于安全系数需要迭代的方法如简化毕肖普法和不平衡推力法而言,更是如此。本文提出一种快速确定横波、纵波最危险相位(thd、tvd)及最小安全系数Fs(thd,tvd)的方法,大致思路如下:首先给定tv=0,以Δt遍历Th寻求Fs(th,0)的最小值,记为Fs(thm,0);接着,给定th=thm,以Δt遍历Tv寻求Fs(thm,tv)的最小值,记为Fs(thm,tvm),最后,令thd=thm、tvd=tvm为最危险相位,具体流程如图2所示。Δt对计算结果的影响在算例分析中给出。
本文提出的快速拟动力方法的计算流程如图3所示。由图3可见,首先进行边坡地震稳定分析的准备工作,包括确定边坡的几何模型,根据现场勘察数据和室内土工试验数据确定岩土体物理力学参数,如容重、内摩擦角和黏聚力等,选择合适的横波、纵波频率fh、fv和地震力系数kh、kv。接着,随机生成N个圆弧滑动面,记为S1,S2,S3,⋯,SN。然后,利用图2所示的最危险相位快速确定流程计算N个滑动面对应的拟动力安全系数。最后,从中选择拟动力安全系数最小值作为边坡地震稳定评价的结果。
传统的拟静力法假定地震力沿高程均匀分布,如此便可将地震力简化为作用在条块重心的静力,以第i个土条为例,作用在土条上的水平与竖向地震力分别为Wikh和Wikv。水平地震力的方向取为与滑坡方向一致的水平方向,竖向地震力分别取为向上、向下,取两者之间的较小安全系数作为拟静力法结果。为了验证蒋青江等[15]关于“放大系数大于1时,拟动力法结果有可能小于拟静力法结果的结论”,本文提出考虑放大系数的拟静力法,地震力沿高程线性分布,以图1中第i个土条为例,忽略公式(3)、公式(4)中的正弦函数项,即可计算作用在该土条上的水平与竖向地震力,类似地,可由式(5)至式(9)计算考虑放大系数的拟静力法安全系数,需要注意的是,为合理考量竖向地震力的影响,分别假设竖向地震力的方向为竖直向上、竖直向下,选择较小的安全系数作为最终评价结果。
本文采用安全系数与失效概率综合评价尾矿坝地震稳定性,其分析流程如图4所示。
由图4可见,可以采用考虑放大系数的拟静力法或者图3所示的快速拟动力法计算尾矿坝地震稳定安全系数来定量评价尾矿坝地震稳定性,也可以采用失效概率来评价尾矿坝地震稳定性。如图4右半部分所示,首先生成足够数量的随机样本,针对每一随机样本(即一组土体材料参数如内摩擦角和黏聚力的组合值),进行安全系数的搜索,若该安全系数小于1,则该随机样本称为失效样本,最后统计失效样本个数并利用蒙特卡罗方法计算尾矿坝地震失效概率。在计算失效概率时,要保证随机样本数量足够多,一般需要进行敏感性分析。关于蒙特卡罗方法计算边坡失效概率的详细步骤与注意事项,可参阅文献[17]和[26]。另外需要指出的是,本文方法是在极限平衡方法框架上提出的,主要适用于土质边坡及尾矿坝边坡地震稳定性初步评价,除给出相应的拟动力安全系数外,亦能确定由于岩土体参数的随机性导致的危险滑动面变化,并量化其贡献。当然,本文方法不能超越极限平衡方法的局限性,未能考虑岩土体的应力和应变对边坡地震稳定性的影响。
西藏某尾矿坝最终堆积标高5 088 m,其中初期坝高73 m,堆积坝高125 m,总坝高198 m,总库容约3.76×108 m3,根据《尾矿库安全规程》(GB 39496—2020)之4.5条规定,该尾矿库为二等库。该尾矿坝所属区域的地震设计烈度为Ⅶ度,由《尾矿库安全规程》(GB 39496—2020)之5.3.17条规定,该尾矿坝坝坡稳定性计算应考虑地震荷载的影响,计算方法应采用简化毕肖普法或瑞典圆弧法,地震荷载按拟静力法考虑,除拟静力法外,本文应用快速拟动力瑞典圆弧法对该尾矿坝坝坡的抗滑稳定性进行分析。
根据现场勘察数据并经一定的概化,构建该尾矿库的几何模型,如图5所示。坝体的分区及各分区的材料物理力学指标的确定主要参考有关工程勘察报告,并根据工程经验进行适当调整,材料参数包括容重,黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ。该尾矿库设计地震烈度为Ⅶ度,根据《水工建筑物抗震设计规范》(SL203—97)第5.1.3条,取βh=βv=3.0,水平地震力系数取kh=0.1,kv=0.1/3,fh=fv=1.0 Hz,本文取vv=ζvh,其中,vh分别取100, 300, 500 m/s,ζ分别取1.0,2.0,3.0以研究波速对计算结果的影响。
用表1中各区域材料参数的均值,不考虑其变异性,分别采用不考虑放大系数的拟静力法、考虑放大系数的拟静力法以及图3所示的快速拟动力法对该尾矿坝进行地震稳定性评价。首先进行快速拟动力法的验证,取ζ=2.0,vh=100 m/s,随机生成30个滑动面,分别利用图3所示的快速拟动力法以及遍历搜索法(Δt=0.01)计算其相应的安全系数,以前者安全系数为横轴,以后者安全系数为纵轴,绘制散点图,如图6所示。
如图6所示,散点图与1:1线完全吻合,说明对于随机生成的30个滑动面,快速拟动力法所得安全系数与遍历搜索法结果完全一致。在Intel(R) Core(TM) i3-4170 CPU@3.7Hz, 4.00 GB内存的个人台式机上分别用两种方法计算。本文提出的快速拟动力法仅需13 s即可计算30个滑动面的安全系数,而遍历搜索法相应耗时为655 s,是快速拟动力法的50倍,本文提出的快速拟动力法的计算效率显著提高,可以应用于尾矿坝地震失效概率计算。
采用不考虑放大系数的拟静力法以及考虑放大系数的拟静力法计算得到的尾矿坝安全系数分别为1.645和1.394,根据《尾矿库安全规程》(GB 39496—2020)之5.3.16条中表7规定,地震工况下,以瑞典圆弧法计算时,该尾矿坝的稳定安全系数需大于1.05,由此可见,该尾矿坝地震稳定性满足规范最低要求。取ζ=2.0,vh=100 m/s,快速拟动力法的计算结果为1.817,对比发现,在ζ=2.0,vh=100 m/s时,拟动力法结果比拟静力法结果要高,其原因在于拟动力法考虑了地震作用力的波动性质。因此,应用拟动力法计算时,横纵波速的选取非常重要。三种方法对应的临界滑动面见图7。由图7可见,考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得到的临界滑动面的滑入点位于最外侧,而快速拟动力法得到的滑入点位于最内侧,不考虑放大系数的拟静力法结果居于二者之间。从安全系数与滑动面积综合来看,考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得结果偏于保守(即安全系数小,滑动面积大)。表1汇总了不同ζ与vh下,快速拟动力法所得安全系数的变化情况。由表1可见,当vh=100 m/s时,随着ζ自1.0逐步增至3.0,快速拟动力法的计算结果维持在1.82左右;当vh=300 m/s时,随着ζ自1.0逐步增至3.0,快速拟动力法的计算结果维持在1.54左右;vh=500 m/s时,随着ζ自1.0逐步增至3.0,快速拟动力法的计算结果维持在1.45左右。对比发现,ζ的取值对计算结果影响较小,而vh的取值对计算结果有显著影响。随着vh自100 m/s增至500 m/s,快速拟动力法的计算结果由1.82降至1.45,由此可见,随着vh的增加,尾矿坝地震稳定性逐步降低。
与规范中使用的传统拟静力法相比,拟动力法能更合理地考虑地震荷载的动力特性,且所得安全系数均大于拟静力法安全系数,由于合理的假设使所得安全系数较拟静力法更为合理,且根据文献[19],结合常见的土体波长数据,较拟静力法而言,拟动力法更适合于高坝的稳定性分析。
考虑各区域材料参数的变异性,分别采用不考虑放大系数的拟静力法、考虑放大系数的拟静力法以及图3所示的快速拟动力法构建尾矿坝地震稳定性极限状态函数,采用图4右半部分所示流程计算尾矿坝地震失效概率,随机样本个数暂取10 000。在计算过程中,若某次抽样下,尾矿坝地震稳定安全系数小于1,则称该样本为失效样本,其相应的滑动面称之为失稳滑动面。由不考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得到的失效样本数为8,失效概率为0.08%;由考虑放大系数的拟静力法所得到的失效样本数为198,失效概率接近2%。
基于3.2节研究结论,ζ对快速拟动力法计算的安全系数影响较小,因此,本节ζ取1.0,vh取100, 300, 500 m/s,应用快速拟动力法研究波速对失效概率的影响。在不同vh下由蒙特卡罗分析法所得到的概率密度函数(PDF)与累计分布函数(CDF)曲线如图8所示。
由图8(a)可知,vh=500 m/s时,所得失效概率为1%,vh=300 m/s时,为0.28%,vh=100 m/s时,抽样样本不足,无法准确计算失效概率。由图8(b)可知,vh=100 m/s时,10 000个安全系数的平均值为1.84,标准差为0.27;vh=300 m/s时,10 000个安全系数的平均值为1.52,标准差为0.23;vh=500 m/s时,10 000个安全系数的平均值为1.43,标准差为0.22。对比发现:随着vh的增加,安全系数平均值逐渐减低,标准差亦逐渐减小。若用可靠度指标β来评价尾矿坝地震可靠性,随着vh自500 m/s降至100 m/s,β自1.95增至3.12,随着vh的降低,β逐渐增加(或者失效概率逐渐降低),尾矿坝地震稳定性逐渐提高。vh=300 m/s和vh=500 m/s时,尾矿坝地震失稳滑动面的位置及其失效样本个数见图9。由图9(b)可见,vh=500 m/s时,尾矿坝地震失稳滑动面有3个,失效样本数为96所对应的滑动面其底部与尾粉质黏土层相切,用橙色表示(颜色标识见电子版)。失效样本数为3所对应的滑动面其底部与尾粉土层相切,用紫色表示。失效样本数为1所对应的滑动面介于上述两者之间,用红色表示。由图9(a)可知,当vh=300 m/s时,地震失稳滑动面个数降为2,与图9(b)对比发现,介于橙色与紫色之间的红色滑动面消失。
本研究通过提出考虑放大系数的拟静力方法和快速拟动力方法,为合理评估尾矿坝地震稳定性提供了新的技术手段。研究结果表明,放大系数对尾矿坝地震稳定性评价有显著影响,使得安全系数降低,评价结果更为保守。同时,快速拟动力方法在保持计算精度的同时,大幅提高了计算效率,适用于实际工程中的快速评估。具体结论如下。
(1)随着横波波速的增加,尾矿坝的地震稳定性降低,失效概率增加,且潜在的失稳滑动面数量增多,从而增加了尾矿坝地震失稳的风险。这些发现为尾矿坝的安全评价和灾害预防提供了重要的参考依据。
(2)本研究解决了传统拟静力方法在地震稳定性评价中可能高估稳定性的问题,并通过快速拟动力方法提高了计算效率,为尾矿坝地震稳定性评价提供了新的思路。实际应用中,本研究提出的方法能够帮助工程师更快速、准确地评估尾矿坝的地震稳定性,为尾矿坝的安全运营和风险管理提供支持。
(3)本研究也存在不足之处。首先,未充分考虑尾矿坝材料的非均质性对地震稳定性的影响。其次,参数变异性对模型准确性的影响需要进一步探讨。在模型中引入材料非均质性和参数变异性可以提高模型的适应性和准确性,这也是后续研究的方向。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52171264)
  • 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023ME007)
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2025年第45卷第3期
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  • 接收时间:2024-04-09
  • 首发时间:2026-10-29
  • 出版时间:2025-03-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-09
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52171264)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023ME007)
作者信息
    青岛理工大学 土木工程学院,山东 青岛市 266520

通讯作者:

李亮(1977—),男,山东济南人,博士,教授,博士研究生导师,主要从事岩土工程可靠度方面的研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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