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Article(id=1322594933270237313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, issueId=1322594813749350688, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1711728000000, receivedDateStr=2024-03-30, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793260804717, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1740412800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793260804717, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793260804717, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793260804717, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322594813749350688, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, year='2025', volume='45', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='288', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1740412800000', pubDateStr='2025-02-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793260776220, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793260776220, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=139, endPage=145, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322594933475758210, articleId=1322594933270237313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=EN, title=Evaluation of the Water Gushing (Inrush) Risk and Prediction of Water Inflow in the 2-3 Coal Seam Roof of Gaotouyao Coal Mine, columnId=null, journalTitle=Mining Research and Development, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to find out the influence of water disaster in 2-3 coal seam roof mining in Gaotouyao Coal Mine, the “three-graph and double-prediction method” coupled with GIS and AHP was used to construct the water abundance evaluation model of 2-3 coal seam roof water-filled aquifer. Comprehensive comparison of FLAC3D numerical simulation, empirical formula calculation, analogy measurement and other methods, the traditional calculation formula of fractured water-conducting zone height was modified. On this basis, the classification and zoning map of water gushing (inrush) risk of 2-3 coal seam roof water-filled aquifer was obtained by compound superposition. Numerical simulation was used to predict the water inflow of Gaotouyao Coal Mine. The results show that the risk of water inrush in the central and southwest of Gaotouyao Coal Mine is higher, and the risk of water inrush in the northwest and east is lower. The normal water inflow of Gaotouyao Coal Mine is 465 m3/h, and the maximum water inflow is 558 m3/h. In view of the water disaster problems faced by the mine in the future, the feasible prevention and control measures have been put forward comprehensively.

, authors=Jinxia MU1, Yi’na YANG2, Xiaoshuai GUO1, Meiling HOU1, Qiang WU2, Yifan ZENG2, Linger ZHAO2, authorsList=Jinxia MU, Yi’na YANG, Xiaoshuai GUO, Meiling HOU, Qiang WU, Yifan ZENG, Linger ZHAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yi’na YANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322594940962590878, articleId=1322594933270237313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=CN, title=高头窑煤矿2-3煤顶板涌（突）水危险性评价和涌水量预测, columnId=1226462295417598973, journalTitle=矿业研究与开发, columnName=矿山安全与环保, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为探明高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板开采水害的影响，运用GIS与AHP耦合的“三图–双预测法”，构建了2-3煤层顶板充水含水层富水性评价模型，综合对比FLAC3D数值模拟、经验公式计算、类比实测多种方法，修正了传统导水裂隙带高度计算公式。在此基础上，复合叠加得到2-3煤层顶板充水含水层涌(突)水危险性分级分区图，并采用数值模拟对高头窑煤矿进行涌水量预测。结果表明：高头窑煤矿中部和西南部突水危险性较高，西北部和东部突水危险性较低。高头窑煤矿的正常涌水量为465 m3/h，最大涌水量为558 m3/h。针对矿井未来面临的水害问题，综合提出了可行性防治措施。

, authors=穆金霞1, 杨义娜2, 郭晓帅1, 侯美玲1, 武强2, 曾一凡2, 赵菱尔2, authorsList=穆金霞, 杨义娜, 郭晓帅, 侯美玲, 武强, 曾一凡, 赵菱尔, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=杨义娜, authorNote=

穆金霞（1983—），女，河北邯郸人，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事水文地质研究。E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
杨义娜（1998—），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，硕士研究生，主要从事煤矿水害防治研究。E-mail:
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穆金霞（1983—），女，河北邯郸人，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事水文地质研究。E-mail:

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穆金霞（1983—），女，河北邯郸人，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事水文地质研究。E-mail:

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Journal of China Coal Society, 2022, 47(8):3091-3100., articleTitle=Advanced drainage technology based on multi-objective constraint of mine safety and water resources protection, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1322594950722736368, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, awardId=42027801; 42072284, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金项目(42027801; 42072284), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322594941390409887, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322594941398798496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, companyId=1322594941390409887, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.The First Hydrogeological Team of China Coal Geology Administration, Handan, Hebei 056004, China), 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tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=图10, caption=含水层抽水试验孔拟合曲线, figureFileSmall=j5sjwHGEoapIG0CNhzkygw==, figureFileBig=vrL5ZGV7hvVLD+BqU6HYcA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322594949871292646, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Weight of main controlling factors of water abundance

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
多源信息含水层厚度 (C1)岩芯取芯率 (C2)脆塑岩厚度比(C3)渗透系数 (C4)
权重Wi0.40.066 70.133 30.4
), ArticleFig(id=1322594949946790119, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

富水性主控因素权重

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
多源信息含水层厚度 (C1)岩芯取芯率 (C2)脆塑岩厚度比(C3)渗透系数 (C4)
权重Wi0.40.066 70.133 30.4
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950026481896, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Modified weight of main controlling factors of water abundance

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
多源信息含水层厚度 (C1)岩芯取芯率 (C2)脆塑岩厚度比(C3)渗透系数 (C4)
权重Wi0.315 80.126 30.084 20.473 7
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950110367977, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

修正后的富水性主控因素权重

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
多源信息含水层厚度 (C1)岩芯取芯率 (C2)脆塑岩厚度比(C3)渗透系数 (C4)
权重Wi0.315 80.126 30.084 20.473 7
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950185865450, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Height and crack-mining ratio of fractured water-conducting zone of roof in Gaotouyao Coal Mine

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
计算方法发育高度/m裂采比
数值模拟7218.0
经验公式6215.5
类比实测6817.0
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950273945835, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

高头窑煤矿顶板导水裂隙带高度和裂采比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
计算方法发育高度/m裂采比
数值模拟7218.0
经验公式6215.5
类比实测6817.0
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950341054700, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Comparison between numerical simulation results and empirical formula calculation results in Gaotouyao Coal Mine

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
煤层煤厚/m经验公式计算高度/m数值模拟高度/m修正系数修正公式计算高度/m
2-3462721.1672
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950420746477, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

高头窑煤矿数值模拟结果与经验公式计算结果对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
煤层煤厚/m经验公式计算高度/m数值模拟高度/m修正系数修正公式计算高度/m
2-3462721.1672
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950513021166, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Partition of permeability coefficient

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
含水层分区Kx/(m/d)Ky/(m/d)Kz/(m/d)
侏罗系中统延安组Ⅰ0.003 390.003 390.000 339
2煤-3煤裂隙含水层Ⅱ0.001 260.001 260.000 126
), ArticleFig(id=1322594950580130031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, articleId=1322594933270237313, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

渗透系数分区

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
含水层分区Kx/(m/d)Ky/(m/d)Kz/(m/d)
侏罗系中统延安组Ⅰ0.003 390.003 390.000 339
2煤-3煤裂隙含水层Ⅱ0.001 260.001 260.000 126
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高头窑煤矿2-3煤顶板涌（突）水危险性评价和涌水量预测
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穆金霞 1 , 杨义娜 2 , 郭晓帅 1 , 侯美玲 1 , 武强 2 , 曾一凡 2 , 赵菱尔 2
矿业研究与开发 | 矿山安全与环保 2025,45(2): 139-145
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矿业研究与开发 |矿山安全与环保 2025 , 45 (2) : 139 -145
高头窑煤矿2-3煤顶板涌（突）水危险性评价和涌水量预测
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穆金霞1 , 杨义娜2 , 郭晓帅1, 侯美玲1, 武强2, 曾一凡2, 赵菱尔2
作者信息
  • 1.中国煤炭地质总局第一水文地质队，河北　邯郸市　056004
  • 2.中国矿业大学（北京）国家煤矿水害防治工程技术研究中心，北京　100083
通讯作者:
杨义娜（1998—），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，硕士研究生，主要从事煤矿水害防治研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

穆金霞（1983—），女，河北邯郸人，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事水文地质研究。E-mail:

Evaluation of the Water Gushing (Inrush) Risk and Prediction of Water Inflow in the 2-3 Coal Seam Roof of Gaotouyao Coal Mine
Jinxia MU1 , Yi’na YANG2 , Xiaoshuai GUO1, Meiling HOU1, Qiang WU2, Yifan ZENG2, Linger ZHAO2
Affiliations
  • 1.The First Hydrogeological Team of China Coal Geology Administration, Handan, Hebei 056004, China
  • 2.National Coal Mine Water Hazard Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
出版时间: 2025-02-25
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摘要
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为探明高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板开采水害的影响，运用GIS与AHP耦合的“三图–双预测法”，构建了2-3煤层顶板充水含水层富水性评价模型，综合对比FLAC3D数值模拟、经验公式计算、类比实测多种方法，修正了传统导水裂隙带高度计算公式。在此基础上，复合叠加得到2-3煤层顶板充水含水层涌(突)水危险性分级分区图，并采用数值模拟对高头窑煤矿进行涌水量预测。结果表明：高头窑煤矿中部和西南部突水危险性较高，西北部和东部突水危险性较低。高头窑煤矿的正常涌水量为465 m3/h，最大涌水量为558 m3/h。针对矿井未来面临的水害问题，综合提出了可行性防治措施。

三图–双预测法  /  富水性  /  导水裂隙带  /  涌（突）水危险性  /  涌水量

In order to find out the influence of water disaster in 2-3 coal seam roof mining in Gaotouyao Coal Mine, the “three-graph and double-prediction method” coupled with GIS and AHP was used to construct the water abundance evaluation model of 2-3 coal seam roof water-filled aquifer. Comprehensive comparison of FLAC3D numerical simulation, empirical formula calculation, analogy measurement and other methods, the traditional calculation formula of fractured water-conducting zone height was modified. On this basis, the classification and zoning map of water gushing (inrush) risk of 2-3 coal seam roof water-filled aquifer was obtained by compound superposition. Numerical simulation was used to predict the water inflow of Gaotouyao Coal Mine. The results show that the risk of water inrush in the central and southwest of Gaotouyao Coal Mine is higher, and the risk of water inrush in the northwest and east is lower. The normal water inflow of Gaotouyao Coal Mine is 465 m3/h, and the maximum water inflow is 558 m3/h. In view of the water disaster problems faced by the mine in the future, the feasible prevention and control measures have been put forward comprehensively.

Three-graph and double-prediction method  /  Water abundance  /  Fractured water-conducting zone  /  Water gushing (inrush) risk  /  Water inflow
穆金霞, 杨义娜, 郭晓帅, 侯美玲, 武强, 曾一凡, 赵菱尔. 高头窑煤矿2-3煤顶板涌（突）水危险性评价和涌水量预测. 矿业研究与开发, 2025 , 45 (2) : 139 -145 .
Jinxia MU, Yi’na YANG, Xiaoshuai GUO, Meiling HOU, Qiang WU, Yifan ZENG, Linger ZHAO. Evaluation of the Water Gushing (Inrush) Risk and Prediction of Water Inflow in the 2-3 Coal Seam Roof of Gaotouyao Coal Mine[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2025 , 45 (2) : 139 -145 .
正文
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0　引言
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进入21世纪以来，中国煤炭产量跃居世界第一，煤炭资源作为重要的基础能源，极大地保障了中国的能源安全和社会经济稳定。鄂尔多斯高头窑矿区是重要的产煤基地，资源储量丰富，煤质优良。随着煤矿开采深度和强度的不断提高，煤层顶板水害问题越来越突出和复杂。矿井煤层涌(突)水研究已成为当下热点问题[1]。在大规模、高强度开采的情况下，进行矿井开采区域顶板涌(突)水危险性评价及涌水量预测，并提出针对性防治措施，对西北地区遏制顶板水害发生及保水采煤具有极其重要的意义[2]。
针对煤层顶板充水水源、充水通道、充水强度三大问题，武强等[3-5]提出的“三图–双预测法”是行之有效的顶板水害评价方法，该方法准确地反映了受多种因素影响的煤层顶板突水危险性，表明煤矿发生突水的根本原因在于导水裂隙导通了其上部强富水性含水层。对此，主要从两方面进行研究：（1)顶板冒裂安全稳定性；(2)煤层顶板含水层富水性。基于此，许多学者[6-8]不断深化研究，并结合不同实际情况，在持续发展中不断完善、应用该方法。
常用的涌水量预测方法有解析法、比拟法、数值法等[9-11]。解析法和比拟法需要对水文地质条件有充分认识，且计算结果通常与实际情况偏差较大。因此，在涌水量的预测过程中，涌水量的大小会有不同程度的差异。鉴于当前情况，为避免此类方法所存在的局限性，同时提升预测的准确性，应当考虑引入其他方法或多种方法相结合，以期获得更为精准和可靠的预测结果。
数值法在多种复杂条件下的涌水量预测方面具有优势，能更真实地描述研究区水文地质特征、模拟复杂水文地质情况。在当前阶段，地下水数值模拟中常用的软件工具主要有Visual Modflow、GMS和FEFLOW[12]等。值得注意的是，GMS软件以其出色的性能与广泛的应用范围，获得普遍认可，特别是在地下水有限差分数值模拟领域，它被广泛运用于多孔裂隙介质中的地下水模拟计算。
本研究采用顶板水害评价方法“三图–双预测法”，综合FLAC3D数值模拟、经验公式计算、类比实测多种方法对比研究顶板导水裂隙带发育高度，修正传统导水裂隙带发育高度计算公式，开展高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板含水层涌(突)水危险性评价和涌水量预测，以期为大型矿井水害防治提供参考。
1　矿井概况
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高头窑煤矿属于高头窑矿区，井田面积约为99.445 km2，地层呈北西走向，倾斜度为1°~3°，基本为单斜结构，属于构造较简单的地区。井田中发育有一定数量的小断层，断层落差小，不成规模。无岩浆岩侵扰。区内基岩暴露于较高的区段和沟谷中，钻孔暴露的地层从近地表向下延伸至第四系(Q4)、新近系(N2)、白垩系志丹群(J3−K1zh)、侏罗系中统直罗组(J2z)、侏罗系中下统延安组(J1−2y)。主要含煤地层为侏罗系中下统延安组(J1−2y)，共含12层煤，投产后首采2-3煤属大部分可采煤层，煤层厚0~7.80 m，平均厚2.31 m。
侏罗系中下统含水层是2-3煤直接充水含水层，一般厚度比较薄，富水性弱，属易疏放的瞬时静储量。层间有一层由各粒级砂岩、砂质泥岩、粉砂岩夹成的弱透水层，总体厚度比较薄。侏罗系含水层水位标高为1 294.34~1 323.87 m，单位涌水量在0.029 1 L/(s·m)以下，渗透系数为0.003 75~0.052 50 m/d。基于矿井含水层赋存条件、补给条件和充水因素，确定侏罗系中下统含水层为2-3煤开采的主要充水水源，与上覆侏罗系中统含水层有局部的水力连接。侏罗系含水层的侧向径流是其主要补给和排泄来源，人工开采属于辅助的排泄途径。本研究主要对受2-3煤开采顶板导水裂隙带影响的侏罗系中下统含水层进行评估。
2　顶板充水含水层富水性评价与分区
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2.1　富水性影响因素分析
经理论分析、经验总结和现场测试，选择含水层厚度、岩芯采收率、脆塑岩厚度比、渗透系数等主要指标作为富水性的控制因子。
（1）含水层厚度。水分在含水层中的丰富程度与其厚度成正比，从而影响到含水层的蓄水量–潜能的释放。含水层厚度在96.55~202.55 m之间，平均厚度为161.93 m；含水层厚度在西南部较大，在其他部位较小。
（2）岩芯采取率。以岩芯采取率体现岩体的完整性，即岩体裂纹的切削程度。含水层的富水性越好，裂隙的交切程度也就越高。研究区内岩芯采取率最大为76.62%，最小为21.67%，其在北部及东北部较大，在西南部较小。
（3）脆塑岩厚度比。一般岩段中脆性岩和塑性岩厚度比越大，对富水性的正增益也越大，因此具有较好的渗透性。脆塑岩厚度比最大值为16.32、最小值为0.81，均值为2.35，含水层脆塑岩厚度比在西南部较大，在西北部较小。
（4）渗透系数。渗透系数与富水性成正比[13]，岩体的过水能力随其渗透系数的增大而增大。含水层渗透系数在0.012 6~0.66 m/d之间，分布规律性较为明显，渗透系数由中部向四周逐渐减小。
2.2　基于GIS与AHP耦合的“富水性指数”方法
2.2.1　建立层次结构分析模型
A、B、C级结构分析模型是根据反映含水层富水性的多源信息而建立的模型，如图1所示。
2.2.2　层次排序及一致性检验
层次单排序和总排序每组判断矩阵的一致性指标(Consistency Ratio, CR)值都在0.1以下，满足一致性的要求[8]。2-3煤层顶板侏罗系含水层经一致性检验后的富水性主控因素权重见表1。
2.3　基于GIS与AHP耦合的含水层富水性评价
2.3.1　富水性评价模型的建立
各因子属性数据库建立后，再计算“富水性指数”，结合层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）确定权重，利用地理信息系统（Global Information System, GIS）的空间分析功能实现耦合，将各主控因子指标归一化，建立含水层的富水性评价模型。
式中：WI为富水性指数；Wj为组合权重；fk(x,y)为主控因素；(x,y)为钻孔坐标；n为主控因素的数量。
2.3.2　含水层富水性评价与分区修正结果
2-3 煤层顶板充水含水层的富水性分区图如图2所示。
根据富水性指数，研究区被划分为5个不同富水等级的区域。采用6个钻孔的单位涌水量实测结果来验证这些分区的准确性。基于层次分析法AHP构建的含水层富水性模型在初次验证中显示出66.7%的匹配度。
为了提高富水性评价结果的准确性，对层次分析法计算出的权重进行了修正（见表2），并将其重新输入富水性指数模型。
对修正后的评价分区结果进行分析，发现所有水文钻孔的预测等级与实际测量等级完全一致，吻合度达到100%，因此采用这一评价结果作为最终结论。在侏罗系中下统含水层中，中部和西南部的富水性较为显著，而东部和西北部的富水性相对较弱，其他区域则属于中等富水程度。
3　煤层顶板冒裂安全性评价与分区
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3.1　导水裂隙带高度计算
3.1.1　数值模拟覆岩破坏规律
运用FLAC3D对高头窑煤矿的覆岩破坏程度进行模拟，为了消除其边界效应[14]，取模型长度为600 m，宽度为400 m，高度为104 m，构建的模型如图3所示。开采过程中，覆岩的破坏范围和受力情况如图4所示。当工作面回采至400 m时，裂高增加量减少，以后逐渐停止向上发展，导水裂隙带最大高度在72 m左右。
3.1.2　经验公式计算导水裂隙带高度
根据矿井地质资料，高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板岩性为抗压强度为8.6~19.1 MPa的砂质泥岩和细砂岩。高头窑煤矿因其上覆基岩属中硬类型，故在中硬覆岩和一次采全高开采条件下，结合地质条件、采煤工艺等实际情况，选用《煤矿防治水手册》中所提出的导水裂隙带高度经验计算公式：
式中：Hli为导水裂隙带，m;M为采厚，m。
3.1.3　类比实测导水裂隙带高度
高头窑煤矿2-3煤层G2-3101工作面开采单层厚度为3.2 m，裂采比为15.40~17.84。在中等硬度覆岩条件下，这一裂采比显著高于许厂矿和鲍店矿的数值，但与大柳塔矿的预测值较为接近。由于许厂矿和鲍店矿同处华北地区，而高头窑煤矿和大柳塔煤矿同处西北地区，与华北地区的形成条件存在显著差异。因此，基于高头窑煤矿的实际钻孔观测数据，在大采高综采方式下，2-3煤层的裂采比为17，煤层的开采厚度为7.80 m，预测的导水裂隙带的高度达到了68 m。
3.1.4　导水裂隙带高度计算公式修正
本研究采用数值模拟、经验公式计算、类比实测等多种手段综合测定导水裂隙带高度[14-15]。高头窑煤矿顶板导水裂隙带高度和裂采比见表3。
由于流固耦合的数值模拟计算结果相对安全可靠，因此，以数值模拟值计算导水裂隙带高度的修正系数，具体见表4。
以此修正系数为基础，适用于高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板导水裂隙带高度的计算公式如下：
高头窑煤矿2-3煤采掘后产生的导水裂隙带，其高度采用公式(3)进行修正，在此基础上对2-3煤顶板导水裂隙带高度等值线图进行修正，如图5所示。
在2-3煤的开采过程中，其顶板直接含水层受导水裂隙带波及，从而导致整个区域存在冒裂的危险，突水事故的危险性较高。2-3煤层顶板含水层冒裂安全性分区图如图6所示。
3.2　煤层顶板涌(突)水危险性综合分区评价
2-3煤层涌（突)水危险性分级分区图，源于2-3煤层顶板含水层富水性分区图与冒裂安全性分区图的叠加复合(见图7)。由于2-3煤层的开采导致导水裂隙带形成，并已与其直接充水含水层相连通，直接充水含水层的分区条件与富水分区一致。
依据富水性指数，将冒裂带影响范围内的突水危险性分为5个级别，从高到低依次为：相对危险区、较危险区、过渡区、较安全区和相对安全区。其中，相对安全区域是裂隙未能触及到的区域。
综上所述，高头窑煤矿的中部和西南部地区具有较高的突水风险，而西北部和东部的一些地区突水风险相对较低。由于中部地区具有较高突水风险的面积较大，因此中部地区应成为防治水的主要关注区域。
4　矿井涌水量预测
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4.1　水文地质概念模型
在深入剖析水文地质条件的基础上，运用地下水数值模拟软件GMS对研究区进行了细致的划分，并合理设定相关水文地质参数。随后又建立了研究区的地下水流系统的三维数值模型[10]。
（1）含水层概化。根据现有实测水头数据，并结合对2-3煤层顶板含水层特性的深入分析，不难发现侏罗系中下统裂隙含水层为2-3煤开采直接充水含水层。由于其他上覆含水层的抽水资料相对匮乏，基本不受采动影响且厚度较薄，因此，在垂向上简化地下水系统为单一层，即Layer 1：侏罗系中统2煤-3煤的裂隙含水层。
（2）模型建立。含水介质在GMS软件操作规范的基础上进行了自动剖分处理，采用等间距有限差分离散方式，分割所得的特定网格单元尺寸为100×78×1，概化模型网络剖分如图8所示。研究区域地下水流系统含水层岩性、裂隙特性和地下水动力场特性存在显著差异，因而简化为非均质、各向异性的三维非稳定地下水流系统。
（3）边界条件。经过深入分析，确定侏罗系中统2煤-3煤的裂隙含水层地下水主要自东南向西北方向流动。故模型中设置了补入的南东边界和以排泄为主的北西边界，以上两边界均为流量边界，其他边界统一设定为零流量边界。
（4）源汇项处理。区域内的源汇项主要有补给量和排泄量两大类。其中，含水层的侧向补给是研究区含水层地下水的主要补给来源，而排泄则主要通过侧向径流实现。
（5）水文地质参数。本次模型中基于G705、2018-25、G510这3个地质兼水文孔数据，对其所在含水层岩性、厚度、渗透系数及分布状况进行综合分析[16]，得出侏罗系中统2煤-3煤裂隙含水层的渗透系数变化范围为0.001 26~0.003 39 m/d，渗透系数分区见表5,Kx、Ky、Kz分别为x、y、z方向的渗透系数，其中Kz=Kx/10。同时，此含水层的储水率变化范围为1×10−10~1×10−4。图9为水文地质参数在含水层中的分区。
4.2　模型的识别与校正
本次数值模型识别时间为2006年初始地下水流场，模型的验证时间为长期观测孔的水位观测时间（2022年11月），侏罗系中下统裂隙含水层观测孔有G705、2018-25、G510，共计3个。含水层抽水试验孔拟合曲线如图10所示。
由图10可知，校正后的每一个钻孔均拟合良好，表明本次调整后的数学模型准确无误，能够展现出实际流场特征。
4.3　矿井涌水量预测
结合煤层顶板含水层涌(突)水危险性分级分区图，对存在潜在水害威胁的高头窑煤矿进行自然状态下的涌水量预测。在GMS软件中，使用识别模型调用Zone Budget模块，将预测区域煤层顶板含水层进行疏干，使水位稳定在含水层底板上，此时的抽水量即为正常涌水量，按正常涌水量的1.2倍计算出最大涌水量。
基于模型预算成果，得出高头窑煤矿涌水量：高头窑煤矿的正常涌水量为465 m3/h，涌水量最高可达到558 m3/h。
5　防治水措施
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高头窑煤矿2-3煤顶板裂隙含水层富水性总体较弱，但局部有富水现象。主要采用超前探查、疏放水[17]对顶板含水层进行治理，以防止在掘进及工作面回采中发生集中涌(突)水。针对已确定的不同等级突水风险区域，制定了相应的防治水措施。
（1）相对危险区、较危险区的水害防治。在富水性较好的地段，由于顶板含水层含水量丰富，对掘进巷道的影响较大，在掘进过程中需要做好疏放工作后，才能进行进一步的探查和回采。巷道顶板的隔水层需要进行勘探，以确定其厚度及变化情况。在遇到影响挖掘的含水层时，必须实施预先的疏放作业，以确保巷道挖掘的安全进行。
（2）过渡区的水害防治。在过渡区，富水性中等，但有一定的危险存在，也存在着涌（突）水的可能，相较于相对危险区、较危险区，其工程密度、工程量可能要小一些，但在巷道掘进、工作面回采时，也要进行超前探放水。在生产中应时刻注意采掘工作面、涌水量和含水层水位的变化情况。
（3）较安全区和相对安全区的水害预防。在较安全区和相对安全区，顶板的富水性通常较微弱，因此在开采过程中不太可能出现大规模的突水或涌水现象。然而，由于危险区域的确定受限于勘探钻孔的密度，对于小范围内存在的富水区的控制程度可能不足。在开采作业开始之前，必须进行详细的水文地质探测工作，并采用钻探和物探相结合的超前探放水技术。
6　结论
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（1）综合多源地质信息，利用GIS与AHP耦合得到的含水层富水性分区结果，经过钻孔实测涌水量修正后，运用GIS将2-3煤层顶板含水层富水性分区图和冒裂安全性分区图复合叠加，得到2-3煤层顶板涌(突)水危险性分级分区图，确定了高头窑煤矿涌(突)水危险区主要分布在相对富水的中部地区和西南部地区。
（2）综合运用FLAC3D数值模拟、经验公式计算、类比实测多种手段，修正了高头窑煤矿2-3煤层顶板导水裂隙带高度计算公式，计算结果精准可靠，可以解决现有煤矿开采覆岩破坏实际性问题。
（3）采用数值模拟对高头窑煤矿进行涌水量预测，运用GMS软件建立三维模型，预测得出高头窑煤矿的正常涌水量为465 m3/h，最大涌水量为558 m3/h。
（4）基于2-3煤层顶板含水层涌(突)水危险性分级分区结果，提出了相对危险区、较危险区、过渡区、较安全区、相对安全区的水害防治措施。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金项目(42027801; 42072284)
文献
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2025年第45卷第2期
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  • 接收时间：2024-03-30
  • 首发时间：2026-10-29
  • 出版时间：2025-02-25
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  • 收稿日期：2024-03-30
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42027801; 42072284)
作者信息
    1.中国煤炭地质总局第一水文地质队，河北　邯郸市　056004
    2.中国矿业大学（北京）国家煤矿水害防治工程技术研究中心，北京　100083

通讯作者:

杨义娜（1998—），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，硕士研究生，主要从事煤矿水害防治研究。E-mail:
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