Article(id=1322559957631881775, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, issueId=1322559901990240737, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1743868800000, receivedDateStr=2025-04-06, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793252465875, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1774368000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793252465875, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793252465875, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793252465875, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322559901990240737, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, year='2026', volume='46', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='330', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774368000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793252452609, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793252731500, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322561071810991099, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, issueId=1322559901990240737, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322561071810991100, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, issueId=1322559901990240737, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=101, endPage=109, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322559959682896433, articleId=1322559957631881775, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=EN, title=Prediction of Surface Subsidence Range Induced by Caving Mining in Metal Mines, columnId=null, journalTitle=Mining Research and Development, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Caving mining is widely recognized to trigger large-scale strata movement and ground deformation, making a reliable delineation of the surface subsidence range essential for mitigating associated losses. In this study, a representative metal mine adopting the caving method was investigated, and the subsidence range was evaluated using numerical simulation, analytical modelling, and similarity simulation model test. Numerical simulations were first performed to obtain a preliminary subsidence profile. On this basis, an enhanced Weibull-distribution-based formulation was developed to better capture the subsidence characteristics induced by caving mining in metal mines. The spatial uncertainty of rock-mass mechanical properties was then incorporated via reliability theory to provide a reliability-informed prediction of the subsidence range. Finally, the analytical predictions were validated by similarity simulation tests. The three approaches yield subsidence extents in the following ascending order: numerical simulation < similarity simulation test < reliability-based analysis. The discrepancy between theoretical predictions and test results ranges from 0.30% to less than 5%, demonstrating the robustness and credibility of the proposed method for subsidence-range delineation.

, authors=Fu FU1, 2, Changyu JIN1, Longbin DONG3, Guihong YAO4, authorsList=Fu FU, Changyu JIN, Longbin DONG, Guihong YAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Changyu JIN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322559960484008499, articleId=1322559957631881775, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1225396423026438145, language=CN, title=金属矿山崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围预测研究, columnId=1226462295417598973, journalTitle=矿业研究与开发, columnName=矿山安全与环保, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

崩落法开采往往会引发大规模的岩层移动和地表变形,为准确预测崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围,有效减轻其造成的损失,以某金属矿崩落法开采为背景,分别采用数值模拟、理论分析、相似模拟试验对地表沉陷范围进行预测研究。通过数值模拟初步获取地表沉陷情况,结合崩落法开采的特点,通过理论分析,提出了一套改进的适用于金属矿山崩落法开采的威布尔分布法地表沉陷预计表达式,同时考虑岩体力学参数的随机性和变异性,基于可靠度理论对地表沉陷范围进行了预测分析。最后利用相似模拟试验对分析结果进行验证。结果表明:三种方法预测的沉陷范围的大小关系为数值模拟<相似模拟试验<基于可靠度的理论分析法,理论计算结果与试验结果的偏差率最小为0.30%,最大不到5%,验证了提出的地表沉陷范围理论计算方法的合理性与可靠性。

, authors=符富1, 2, 金长宇1, 东龙宾3, 姚桂宏4, authorsList=符富, 金长宇, 东龙宾, 姚桂宏, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=金长宇, authorNote=

符富(1999—),男,贵州铜仁人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地下开采地表沉陷预测。E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
金长宇(1979—),男,辽宁鞍山人,博士,教授,主要从事岩石力学与数值模拟方法研究。E-mail:
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2.云南驰宏锌锗股份有限公司,云南 曲靖市 655099, bio={"content":"

符富(1999—),男,贵州铜仁人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地下开采地表沉陷预测。E-mail:

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金属矿山崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围预测研究
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符富 1, 2 , 金长宇 1 , 东龙宾 3 , 姚桂宏 4
矿业研究与开发 | 矿山安全与环保 2026,46(3): 101-109
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矿业研究与开发 |矿山安全与环保 2026 , 46 (3) : 101 -109
金属矿山崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围预测研究
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符富(1999—),男,贵州铜仁人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地下开采地表沉陷预测。E-mail:

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符富1, 2 , 金长宇1 , 东龙宾3, 姚桂宏4
作者信息
  • 1.东北大学 深部金属矿智能开采与装备全国重点实验室,辽宁 沈阳 110819
  • 2.云南驰宏锌锗股份有限公司,云南 曲靖市 655099
  • 3.中冶北方(大连)工程技术有限公司,辽宁 大连市 116600
  • 4.紫金(厦门)工程设计有限公司,福建 厦门市 361006
通讯作者:
金长宇(1979—),男,辽宁鞍山人,博士,教授,主要从事岩石力学与数值模拟方法研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

符富(1999—),男,贵州铜仁人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地下开采地表沉陷预测。E-mail:

Prediction of Surface Subsidence Range Induced by Caving Mining in Metal Mines
Fu FU1, 2 , Changyu JIN1 , Longbin DONG3, Guihong YAO4
Affiliations
  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Deep Metal Mining and Equipment, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110819, China
  • 2.Yunnan Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd., Qujing, Yunnan 655099, China
  • 3.MCC North (Dalian) Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., Dalian, Liaoning 116600, China
  • 4.Zijin (Xiamen) Engineering Co., Ltd., Xiamen, Fujian 361006, China
出版时间: 2026-03-25
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崩落法开采往往会引发大规模的岩层移动和地表变形,为准确预测崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围,有效减轻其造成的损失,以某金属矿崩落法开采为背景,分别采用数值模拟、理论分析、相似模拟试验对地表沉陷范围进行预测研究。通过数值模拟初步获取地表沉陷情况,结合崩落法开采的特点,通过理论分析,提出了一套改进的适用于金属矿山崩落法开采的威布尔分布法地表沉陷预计表达式,同时考虑岩体力学参数的随机性和变异性,基于可靠度理论对地表沉陷范围进行了预测分析。最后利用相似模拟试验对分析结果进行验证。结果表明:三种方法预测的沉陷范围的大小关系为数值模拟<相似模拟试验<基于可靠度的理论分析法,理论计算结果与试验结果的偏差率最小为0.30%,最大不到5%,验证了提出的地表沉陷范围理论计算方法的合理性与可靠性。

崩落法  /  地表沉陷  /  数值模拟  /  可靠度  /  相似模拟试验

Caving mining is widely recognized to trigger large-scale strata movement and ground deformation, making a reliable delineation of the surface subsidence range essential for mitigating associated losses. In this study, a representative metal mine adopting the caving method was investigated, and the subsidence range was evaluated using numerical simulation, analytical modelling, and similarity simulation model test. Numerical simulations were first performed to obtain a preliminary subsidence profile. On this basis, an enhanced Weibull-distribution-based formulation was developed to better capture the subsidence characteristics induced by caving mining in metal mines. The spatial uncertainty of rock-mass mechanical properties was then incorporated via reliability theory to provide a reliability-informed prediction of the subsidence range. Finally, the analytical predictions were validated by similarity simulation tests. The three approaches yield subsidence extents in the following ascending order: numerical simulation < similarity simulation test < reliability-based analysis. The discrepancy between theoretical predictions and test results ranges from 0.30% to less than 5%, demonstrating the robustness and credibility of the proposed method for subsidence-range delineation.

Caving method  /  Surface subsidence  /  Numerical simulation  /  Reliability  /  Similarity simulation test
符富, 金长宇, 东龙宾, 姚桂宏. 金属矿山崩落法开采的地表沉陷范围预测研究. 矿业研究与开发, 2026 , 46 (3) : 101 -109 .
Fu FU, Changyu JIN, Longbin DONG, Guihong YAO. Prediction of Surface Subsidence Range Induced by Caving Mining in Metal Mines[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2026 , 46 (3) : 101 -109 .
  • 辽宁省科学技术计划项目(2023JH1/10400004)
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2026年第46卷第3期
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  • 接收时间:2025-04-06
  • 首发时间:2026-10-29
  • 出版时间:2026-03-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-06
基金
辽宁省科学技术计划项目(2023JH1/10400004)
作者信息
    1.东北大学 深部金属矿智能开采与装备全国重点实验室,辽宁 沈阳 110819
    2.云南驰宏锌锗股份有限公司,云南 曲靖市 655099
    3.中冶北方(大连)工程技术有限公司,辽宁 大连市 116600
    4.紫金(厦门)工程设计有限公司,福建 厦门市 361006

通讯作者:

金长宇(1979—),男,辽宁鞍山人,博士,教授,主要从事岩石力学与数值模拟方法研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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