Article(id=1261270371689480918, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1261262687258985194, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404883, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1719676800000, receivedDateStr=2024-06-30, revisedDate=1744300800000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-11, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1778639889881, onlineDateStr=2026-05-13, pubDate=1752768000000, pubDateStr=2025-07-18, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1778639889881, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-05-13, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1778639889881, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778639889881, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1261262687258985194, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='20', pageStart='8317', pageEnd='8759', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1778638057769, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778753106634, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1261745237240722095, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1261262687258985194, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1261745237240722096, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1261262687258985194, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=8651, endPage=8658, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1261270373379785442, articleId=1261270371689480918, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Dynamics in Sugan Lake Basin Based on MODFLOW, columnId=1156262735643005297, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Hydraulic Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

A numerical simulation of groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin was conducted by using MODFLOW, and 50-year predictions were made for four different water diversion schemes. The results from MODFLOW simulations fit well with the measured data, indicating that the established model can be used for predicting the groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin. The MODFLOW simulation results under different water diversion schemes reveal that over a period of 50 years, as the amount of diverted water increases, the shrinkage rate of the large Sugan Lake’s area also increases, and the groundwater level in the Sugan Lake Basin shows a general declining trend. The impact of inter-basin water transfer exhibits certain time lags and spatial heterogeneity. Considering both the water diversion requirements and the effects of the water diversion project on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin, it is suggested that a water diversion scheme of 1.0×108 m3/a is more appropriate. The research results provide important scientific theoretical support for assessing the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin and for determining suitable water diversion schemes.

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利用MODFLOW对苏干湖盆地地下水动态进行数值模拟,并对4种不同调水方案进行50年预测。MODFLOW模拟结果与实测情况拟合良好,表明所建模型可用于苏干湖盆地地下水动态的预测。不同调水方案下的MODFLOW模拟结果表明:预测50年时间,随着调水量的增大,大苏干湖面积缩减率随之增大,且苏干湖盆地地下水水位整体呈下降趋势;跨流域调水所产生的影响具有一定的时间滞后性和空间异质性;综合考虑调水需求以及调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响,认为调水方案1.0×108 m3/a较为合适。研究成果可为跨流域调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响评价以及调水方案的确定提供重要科学理论依据。

, correspAuthors=刘兴荣, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 刘兴荣(1979—),男,汉族,甘肃靖远人,硕士,研究员。研究方向:地质灾害防治。E-mail:
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魏新平(1976—),男,汉族,甘肃秦安人,硕士研究生,高级工程师。研究方向:水工环地质调查评价与勘察设计。E-mail:

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魏新平(1976—),男,汉族,甘肃秦安人,硕士研究生,高级工程师。研究方向:水工环地质调查评价与勘察设计。E-mail:

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魏新平(1976—),男,汉族,甘肃秦安人,硕士研究生,高级工程师。研究方向:水工环地质调查评价与勘察设计。E-mail:

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Hydrogeological parameter zoning

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分区 水文地质参数
渗透系数K/(m·d-1) 给水度μ
a 4.30 0.15
b 118.00 0.25
c 63.12 0.25
d 28.23 0.25
e 18.98 0.20
), ArticleFig(id=1261270413112426568, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1261270371689480918, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

水文地质参数分区

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
分区 水文地质参数
渗透系数K/(m·d-1) 给水度μ
a 4.30 0.15
b 118.00 0.25
c 63.12 0.25
d 28.23 0.25
e 18.98 0.20
), ArticleFig(id=1261270413229867084, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1261270371689480918, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Identification equilibrium and measured equilibrium comparison

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指标 模拟值/
(104 m3·a-1)
实际值/
(104 m3·a-1)
变化
率/%
侧向径流流入 101 11.42 10 111.42 0
大哈尔腾河入渗 32 800.00 32 800.00 0
小哈尔腾河入渗 6 900.00 6 900.00 0
补给项 当中泉-努呼图区降水入渗 271.53 271.53 0
苏干湖区降水入渗 1 253.46 1 253.46 0
泉水入渗(重复量) 15 222.59 14 921.25 2.02
合计 51 336.42 51 336.42 0
排泄项 当中泉-努呼图区潜水蒸发 4 303.62 4 272.01 0.74
苏干湖区潜水蒸发 27 479.03 27 763.46 -1.02
大苏干湖水面蒸发 17 420.91 17 079.27 2.00
小苏干湖水面蒸发 2 018.40 2 018.40 0
当中泉-努呼图区泉水溢出 15 222.59 14 921.25 2.02
苏干湖区泉水溢出 17 420.91 17 079.27 2.00
侧向径流流出 50.00 50.00 0
合计 51 271.06 51 183.14 0.17
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识别均衡与实测均衡对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标 模拟值/
(104 m3·a-1)
实际值/
(104 m3·a-1)
变化
率/%
侧向径流流入 101 11.42 10 111.42 0
大哈尔腾河入渗 32 800.00 32 800.00 0
小哈尔腾河入渗 6 900.00 6 900.00 0
补给项 当中泉-努呼图区降水入渗 271.53 271.53 0
苏干湖区降水入渗 1 253.46 1 253.46 0
泉水入渗(重复量) 15 222.59 14 921.25 2.02
合计 51 336.42 51 336.42 0
排泄项 当中泉-努呼图区潜水蒸发 4 303.62 4 272.01 0.74
苏干湖区潜水蒸发 27 479.03 27 763.46 -1.02
大苏干湖水面蒸发 17 420.91 17 079.27 2.00
小苏干湖水面蒸发 2 018.40 2 018.40 0
当中泉-努呼图区泉水溢出 15 222.59 14 921.25 2.02
苏干湖区泉水溢出 17 420.91 17 079.27 2.00
侧向径流流出 50.00 50.00 0
合计 51 271.06 51 183.14 0.17
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Statistics of area change rate of Dasugan Lake under different water transfer scales

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预测时
间/年
不同调水规模下大苏干湖面积变化率/%
调水规模
为0.8×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为0.9×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为1.0×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为1.2×
108 m3/a
5 -0.22 -0.36 -0.32 -0.55
10 -0.94 -1.35 -1.27 -2.02
20 -2.25 -3.35 -3.45 -4.99
30 -3.83 -4.91 -5.05 -7.44
50 -5.48 -7.31 -7.51 -10.67
), ArticleFig(id=1261270417738743897, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1261270371689480918, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

不同调水规模下大苏干湖面积变化率统计

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预测时
间/年
不同调水规模下大苏干湖面积变化率/%
调水规模
为0.8×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为0.9×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为1.0×
108 m3/a
调水规模
为1.2×
108 m3/a
5 -0.22 -0.36 -0.32 -0.55
10 -0.94 -1.35 -1.27 -2.02
20 -2.25 -3.35 -3.45 -4.99
30 -3.83 -4.91 -5.05 -7.44
50 -5.48 -7.31 -7.51 -10.67
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基于MODFLOW的苏干湖盆地地下水动态数值模拟
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魏新平 1 , 刘兴荣 2, * , 王玉昆 2 , 黄金燕 2 , 马彦杰 2 , 李启润 2
科学技术与工程 | 论文·水利工程 2025,25(20): 8651-8658
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·水利工程 2025, 25(20): 8651-8658
基于MODFLOW的苏干湖盆地地下水动态数值模拟
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魏新平1 , 刘兴荣2, * , 王玉昆2, 黄金燕2, 马彦杰2, 李启润2
作者信息
  • 1 甘肃省地质环境监测院, 兰州 730050
  • 2 甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所, 兰州 730000
  • 魏新平(1976—),男,汉族,甘肃秦安人,硕士研究生,高级工程师。研究方向:水工环地质调查评价与勘察设计。E-mail:

通讯作者:

* 刘兴荣(1979—),男,汉族,甘肃靖远人,硕士,研究员。研究方向:地质灾害防治。E-mail:
Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Dynamics in Sugan Lake Basin Based on MODFLOW
Xin-ping WEI1 , Xing-rong LIU2, * , Yu-kun WANG2, Jin-yan HUANG2, Yan-jie MA2, Qi-run LI2
Affiliations
  • 1 Gansu Institute of Geo-Environment Survey, Lanzhou 730050, China
  • 2 Institute of Geological Hazards Prevention, Gansu Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
出版时间: 2025-07-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404883
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利用MODFLOW对苏干湖盆地地下水动态进行数值模拟,并对4种不同调水方案进行50年预测。MODFLOW模拟结果与实测情况拟合良好,表明所建模型可用于苏干湖盆地地下水动态的预测。不同调水方案下的MODFLOW模拟结果表明:预测50年时间,随着调水量的增大,大苏干湖面积缩减率随之增大,且苏干湖盆地地下水水位整体呈下降趋势;跨流域调水所产生的影响具有一定的时间滞后性和空间异质性;综合考虑调水需求以及调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响,认为调水方案1.0×108 m3/a较为合适。研究成果可为跨流域调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响评价以及调水方案的确定提供重要科学理论依据。

苏干湖盆地  /  MODFLOW  /  调水工程  /  地下水  /  数值模拟

A numerical simulation of groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin was conducted by using MODFLOW, and 50-year predictions were made for four different water diversion schemes. The results from MODFLOW simulations fit well with the measured data, indicating that the established model can be used for predicting the groundwater dynamics in the Sugan Lake Basin. The MODFLOW simulation results under different water diversion schemes reveal that over a period of 50 years, as the amount of diverted water increases, the shrinkage rate of the large Sugan Lake’s area also increases, and the groundwater level in the Sugan Lake Basin shows a general declining trend. The impact of inter-basin water transfer exhibits certain time lags and spatial heterogeneity. Considering both the water diversion requirements and the effects of the water diversion project on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin, it is suggested that a water diversion scheme of 1.0×108 m3/a is more appropriate. The research results provide important scientific theoretical support for assessing the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the ecological environment of the Sugan Lake Basin and for determining suitable water diversion schemes.

Sugan Lake Basin  /  MODFLOW  /  water diversion project  /  groundwater  /  numerical simulation
魏新平, 刘兴荣, 王玉昆, 黄金燕, 马彦杰, 李启润. 基于MODFLOW的苏干湖盆地地下水动态数值模拟. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (20) : 8651 -8658 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404883
Xin-ping WEI, Xing-rong LIU, Yu-kun WANG, Jin-yan HUANG, Yan-jie MA, Qi-run LI. Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Dynamics in Sugan Lake Basin Based on MODFLOW[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (20) : 8651 -8658 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404883
地下水是全球水循环的重要组成部分,通过与地表水体的相互作用维持水资源的可持续性[1]。然而,由于地下水系统受多种水文过程调节,且这些过程在气候、地形和水文地质特征的共同作用下复杂多样,加之获取地下水数据的困难,使得地下水研究面临更大的挑战[2],为此,学者们多采用数值模拟的方法来进行研究。数值模拟能够精确离散化自然异质性和复杂的边界或结构,并允许更高维的参数化,因其高效灵活的特性,目前已广泛应用于地下水资源的预测和评价[3-5]
MODFLOW是美国地质调查局于20世纪80年代开发的三维地下水流模拟模型[6],利用达西定律和连续性方程,建立地下水的差分方程,将地下水系统划分为三维离散单元网格,用于进行水平衡计算,通过迭代过程确定每个网格单元的值后,模型推进至下一个时间步长,直至模拟周期完成。因其在模拟地下水流动及相关过程方面的准确性和可靠性,得到了学术界的认可,在地下水资源开采预警[7-8]、地下水流动模拟[9]、污染物运移过程[10]等方面得到广泛应用[11]。学者们应用MODFLOW开展了大量研究,王帅兵等[12]利用Visual MODFLOW模型预测了武威盆地的地下水系统在已规划水资源配置方案下10年地下水动态。熊鹏等[13]采用MODFLOW预测了刚果(金)迪兹瓦露天矿区在开采后 10 年内的地下涌水量。马志敬等[14]利用MODFLOW模拟了黑龙洞泉域的地下水流场以及溶质质点运移100、1 000 d的轨迹,进而确定了一级、二级保护区的边界。Das等[15]使用Visual MODFLOW模型预测了Gomti河流域在不同气候变化情景下,未来10年的地下水位变化趋势。Sisay等[16]使用MODFLOW模型揭示了Modjo河流域地下水与河流系统之间复杂的相互作用。综合来看,MODFLOW在流域地下水动态的预测模拟以及地下水资源的评价中表现出优异性能。
随着MODFLOW在地下水数值模拟中应用的普及,基于其本身的开源特性,许多学者对其进行了优化和拓展。为了克服MODFLOW在建模复杂地质条件时的局限性,Panday等[17]开发了MODFLOW-USG,进而能够更好地处理如矿坑、断层和裂隙等复杂的地质结构和人工结构[18]。Ji等[19]利用图形处理单元(GPU)库并行化MODFLOW,大大提高了大规模地下水模型的计算效率。为了满足多元化的应用场景,实际研究中常将MODFLOW与其他模型进行耦合使用,以实现更全面的水文模拟[20-22]。Abd等[23]集成MODFLOW和Solute Transport模块,通过模拟2020—2050年的气候数据,预测了未来30年内的地下水流动和盐分变化。Fiorese等[24]耦合MODFLOW与SWAT模型,成功模拟了意大利普利亚地区沿海喀斯特含水层的水文地质过程。Jiang等[25]通过构建MODFLOW-SWMM耦合模型,提出了一种用于解决LID设施在城市地表径流和浅层地下水管理中的优化问题的多目标优化和评估框架。综上可知,MODFLOW通过不断发展改进使得其在地下水模拟和水资源管理中发挥着越发重要的作用。
由于水文地质环境的复杂性以及数据资料的有限性,数值模拟的结果存在一定的不确定性,但其终归是基于实际的地下水流动的物理机制,能在一定程度上反映真实的地下水流动过程,加之其经济高效,使得其在初步研究和方案测试中被广泛采用。鉴于此,以苏干湖盆地跨流域调水工程为例,以2018年为现状年,采用MODFLOW模型就不同调水方案进行模拟,预测50年时间跨度下苏干湖盆地的地下水动态,以期为跨流域调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响评价以及调水规模的确立提供科学理论依据。
苏干湖盆地位于甘肃省酒泉市阿克塞哈萨克族自治县南部(图1),地处 93°30'E~96°40'E,38°10'N~39°15'N,面积约8 600 km2,海拔2 800~3 900 m,属于典型大陆干旱性气候。盆地四周群山环绕,东起大、小哈尔腾河出山口,南至赛什腾山和土尔根达坂山北麓,西临冷湖丁字路口,北以阿尔金山和党河南山南麓为界。盆地中部为东高西低的第四系冲洪积倾斜平原区,海拔从东部的3 600 m降至西部的大苏干湖区的2 795 m。气候干燥、降水稀少,主要水资源为地下水,补给来源包括地表水和降水入渗、侧向径流和雨洪入渗。排泄方式则主要通过泉水溢出、潜水蒸发、水面蒸发、人工开采和侧向流出,其中水面蒸发量占40%。
研究区的第四系松散层孔隙潜水由碎石和中细砂层组成。受构造、地貌和沉积条件影响,沉积物颗粒自东向西逐渐变细。黏性土层的水平和垂直分布差异大,隔水层不连续或呈透镜体状,难以找到稳定的隔水层。因此,承压水和潜水在区域上有紧密的水力联系,形成统一的多层介质潜水含水系统。模型区的含水层被简化为单一潜水含水层,水力特征概化为非均质各向同性二维稳定地下水流系统。
研究区四周为群山环抱,山区冰雪融水和降水入渗形成地下径流,通过边界以侧向径流方式补给地下水,因此四周边界为二类补给边界,控制周边来水量。大哈尔腾河以地表径流形式进入研究区,沿河道对地下水呈线性补给。由于山前洪积扇渗透系数较大,一般径流长约14 km即全部入渗,丰水期(6—9月)径流长可达21 km,研究区西侧边界为侧向径流流出边界。模型边界条件如图2所示。
水文地质参数主要为渗透系数和给水度(表1),根据区域水文地质勘察、抽水实验资料及对水文地质条件的分析确定。总体上可划分为5个水文地质单元(图3),依次为东北部阿尔金山山前洪积扇(Ia)、大、小苏干湖汇水区(Ib)、当中泉-花海庄地下水潜流区(Ic)、当中泉泉水出露区(Id)和北部党河南山及东南部土尔根达坂山与赛什腾山山前冲洪积扇区(Ie)。
根据水文地质概念模型,基于地下水渗流连续性方程和达西定律,建立数学模型。
$\left\{\begin{array}{l}\frac{\partial }{\partial x}\left(T\frac{\partial H}{\partial x}\right)+\frac{\partial }{\partial y}\left(T\frac{\partial H}{\partial y}\right)+\mathrm{\sigma }({H}_{\mathrm{L}}-\mathrm{H}){f}_{\mathrm{L}}(\mathrm{x},\mathrm{y})-\\   \sum _{i}{Q}_{i}\delta (x-{x}_{i},y-{y}_{i})={\mu }^{\mathrm{*}}\frac{\partial H}{\partial t},\\   (x,y)\in G;t>0\\ H(x,y,t)={H}_{0}(x,y), \\ (x,y)\in G;t=0\\ {\left.T\frac{\partial H}{\partial n}\right|}_{{\Gamma }_{2}}=\beta ({H}_{\mathrm{b}}-H)+{q}_{0},\\   (x,y)\in {\Gamma }_{2};t>0\end{array}\right.$
fL(x,y)=$\left\{\begin{array}{ll}1,& (x,y)\in \mathrm{湖}\mathrm{区}\\ 0,& (x,y)\notin \mathrm{湖}\mathrm{区}\end{array}\right.$
式中:HHL分别为地下水位、湖水位;Hb为当前边界水位; H0为初始水位;T为含水层导水系数; σ为含水层与湖水间越流系数,σ=$\frac{K\text{'}}{M\text{'}}$,其中,K'为垂向渗透系数,M'为透水层的厚度; (x,y)为区域内空间点的坐标; (xi,yi)为区域内的第i个空间点的坐标; t为时间; β为含水层边界流量增量系数; μ*为含水层贮水率; Qi为井开采量; δ为狄拉克函数; q0为天然条件边界单宽流量; n为边界外法线方向; G为模拟区范围; Γ2为含水层边界; fL为湖区指示函数,表示仅在湖泊存在的区域“启用”越流项。
根据研究区的水文地质条件,将研究区在平面上剖分为86行、 167列,间距均为1 000 m,其中有效单元格为6 945个;按365 d为一个应力期,整个模拟时段共划分为50个应力期。
研究区地下水系统的补给主要包括河流入渗、降凝水入渗和侧向径流流入,排泄项包括侧向径流流出、潜水蒸发、湖面蒸发和泉水溢出。模型中,河流入渗及侧向径流流入和流出通过Well模块添加;降凝水入渗通过Recharge模块赋值;潜水蒸发由Evapotranspiration模块按分区逐日添加,极限蒸发深度为5 m;泉水溢出采用Drain模块处理。小苏干湖的湖面蒸发作为潜水蒸发处理,大苏干湖作为定水头边界,其蒸发量为泉水溢出和湖底越流补给量之和[26]
通过将实测流场、水文地质参数和各源汇项代入模型,反复进行求解。将稳定流场和均衡的计算结果与实测值进行比较,并不断修正水文地质参数,直至两者拟合良好[27]。经过多次计算与校核,最终得到的地下水初始流场如图4所示,均衡统计结果如表2所示。模拟结果与实际情况高度吻合,模型基本上能够反映出苏干湖盆地的地下水运动规律,可用于其地下水动态的预测。
利用所建模型预测研究区地下水位动态变化。根据多年平均来水量和甘肃省水利水电勘测设计院计算成果,大哈尔腾河平水年(P=50%,P为频率)来水量为 3.24×108 m3/a,小哈尔腾河平水年来水量为 0.69×108 m3/a。综合考虑受水区的需水量,以2018年为现状年,共选取4 种调水方案,调水规模依次为0.8×108、0.9×108、1.0×108、1.2×108 m3/a,以此预测调水后的地下水位变化情况。
在不同调水规模下,模拟苏干湖盆地地下水在50 年后的预测水位降幅(图5);以及在调水 1×108 m3/a时,苏干湖盆地地下水在第5、10、30、50年末的预测水位降幅(图6)。
在不同的调水方案下,随着调水时间的增长和调水规模的增大,苏干湖盆地的地下水水位整体呈逐渐下降的趋势,并且呈现出较为明显的时间滞后性和空间差异性,距离调水点大哈尔腾河越远,地下水水位的降幅越小,产生的变化越滞后。根据模拟结果,当调水规模为 1.0×108 m3/a,调水周期为50年时,苏干湖盆地东部区域水位降幅48~51 m,而中部区域的大、小苏干湖湿地的地下水水位降幅21~24 m,整个区域的水位降幅呈现出东部变化幅度大、速度快,而中部变化幅度小、速度慢的态势。苏干湖盆地的地形地势是形成这一态势的主要原因,苏干湖盆地东部地势高而中部地势低,故地下水流随地势自然地补给中部区域,使得中部区域地下水水位降幅较小且呈现出一定的滞后性。
由于小苏干湖主要靠阿尔金山区融雪的侧向补给[28],只有少量东部地下水径流补给,因此其水位和湖面面积未受大哈尔腾河调水影响,因此只研究了大苏干湖的面积变化。根据2018年9月甘肃省地质调查院测绘的大苏干湖湖底地形图,计算出湖底高程与蓄水量和面积的关系曲线(图7),通过预测不同时期的湖面蒸发量,可以得出相应时期的大苏干湖面积变化情况[14],如表3图8所示。
根据模拟结果(图7表3图8),大苏干湖湖面面积随着调水规模的增加,调水周期的增长呈持续缩减的趋势,且调水规模越大,同一预测时期的缩减率越大。调水 1.0×108 m3/a 时,前期变化幅度较小,10 年末湖面面积仅缩减 1.27%,之后缩减幅度增大,50 年末湖面面积缩减率则达到7.51%;50年末,调水 0.8×108 m3/a 时,湖面面积缩减率最小为 5.48%,调水 1.2×108 m3/a 时,湖面面积缩减率最大为10.67%,而调水0.9×108 m3/a和1.0×108 m3/a 时湖面面积缩减率较为接近,分别为7.31%和7.51%。
调出区苏干湖盆地和受水区敦煌地区都属于干旱缺水地区,且苏干湖盆地是国家重要保护湿地,因此,在确定调水方案时,既要满足受水区的用水需求,也要格外注重调水工程对苏干湖盆地生态环境的影响。以大苏干湖面积变化作为评价调水工程对其生态环境影响的主要指标[29-30]。根据不同调水方案下苏干湖盆地地下水的流场、水位及大苏干湖面积变化模拟结果,50 年末,调水1.2×108 m3/a 时,大苏干湖面积缩减率已超过10%,对苏干湖盆地的生态环境影响较大;而调水0.8×108、0.9×108、1.0×108 m3/a 时,大苏干湖面积缩减率分别为 5.48%、7.31% 和 7.51%,虽然也会引起苏干湖盆地一定程度的生态功能退化,但只要对草场载畜量加以适当约束,就不会导致荒漠化的情形出现,且不会对盆地周边鸟类的栖息带来严重影响。因此,在最大程度保证调水充足,同时又要降低对苏干湖盆地生态环境影响的前提下,结果表明:调水方案 1.0×108 m3/a 较为合适。
相较于前人提出的0.9×108 m3/a和不超过1.0×108 m3/a 的调水方案[28,31],基于MODFLOW定量分析了不同调水方案对调出区生态环境的影响程度,提出的1.0×108 m3/a调水方案综合考虑了调水需求和生态环境影响,既保证了调水工程对水源地苏干湖盆地的生态破坏最小,又在最大程度上满足了受水区供水需求。
利用建立的MODFLOW地下水流数值模型,对苏干湖盆地未来50年的地下水动态进行模拟和预测,得出以下结论。
(1)预测 50 年末,调水规模为 0.8×108、0.9×108、1.0×108、1.2×108 m3/a 时,苏干湖盆地地下水水位最大降幅分别为大苏干湖湖面面积分别缩减了 5.48%、7.31%、7.51% 和 10.67%。
(2)大哈尔腾河调水对苏干湖盆地地下水系统所产生的影响具有一定的时间滞后性和空间异质性,距离调水点大哈尔腾河越远,地下水水位降幅越小,产生的变化越滞后。
(3)对比分析不同调水方案的模拟结果,认为调水方案 1.0×108 m3/a 不会对苏干湖盆地生态环境造成较为严重的影响,且能在最大程度上满足调水需求。
  • 甘肃省科技重大专项(23ZDFA009-02)
  • 甘肃省科学院重大专项(2024ZDZX-02)
  • 甘肃省科学院重点科技研发项目(2023ZDYF-03)
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Meng Xiangyu. Influence analysis of the Water Diversion Project of Yin Ha Ji Dang to the ecologically sensitive area of water cycle of Sugan Lake Basin[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2020.
2025年第25卷第20期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404883
  • 接收时间:2024-06-30
  • 首发时间:2026-05-13
  • 出版时间:2025-07-18
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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-30
  • 修回日期:2025-04-11
基金
甘肃省科技重大专项(23ZDFA009-02)
甘肃省科学院重大专项(2024ZDZX-02)
甘肃省科学院重点科技研发项目(2023ZDYF-03)
作者信息
    1 甘肃省地质环境监测院, 兰州 730050
    2 甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所, 兰州 730000

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* 刘兴荣(1979—),男,汉族,甘肃靖远人,硕士,研究员。研究方向:地质灾害防治。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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