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Article(id=1245407860390212344, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156262727438951343, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402664, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1712851200000, receivedDateStr=2024-04-12, revisedDate=1721923200000, revisedDateStr=2024-07-26, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1774857972476, onlineDateStr=2026-03-30, pubDate=1741363200000, pubDateStr=2025-03-08, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1774857972476, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774857972476, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774857972476, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1156262727438951343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='7', pageStart='2193', pageEnd='3077', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1753604116544, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1753771263994, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1156963794699248405, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156262727438951343, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1156963794699248406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156262727438951343, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2721, endPage=2731, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1245407861518480159, articleId=1245407860390212344, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Formation Mechanism and Evolution Trend Prediction of Multi-level Soil Landslides in Mountainous Areas: Taking the Jiubaoyan Landslide in Chongqing as an Example, columnId=1156262729351549255, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Astronomy and Geosciences, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Since 2019, the Jiubaoyan landslide has exhibited continuous and gradual deformation. On September 17, 2021, during the rainy season, the landslide was obviously deformed and slipped due to the continuous heavy rainfall. On the basis of traditional engineering geological exploration methods such as on-site investigation, drilling and displacement monitoring, the finite element simulation method Midas GTS was utilized to simulate and calculate the seepage and displacement field of the slope under different working conditions, the landslide formation mechanism was comprehensively analyzed. Furthermore, the Fast GPU Matrix computing of discrete element method (MatDEM) was introduced to forecast the trend of the landslide sliding evolution under rainstorm working conditions. The results indicate these as follows. ① The finite element numerical simulation results are consistent with the drilling results, revealing that the sliding zone of Jiubaoyan landslide is located at the interface between the quaternary landslide accumulation layer gravel soil (${Q}_{4}^{del}$) and the mudstone of the Jurassic Suining Formation (${J}_{2}^{sn}$); ② Both finite element numerical simulation and on-site investigation suggest that Jiubaoyan landslide is a multi-level shallow soil landslide mainly driven by push forces and secondarily propelled by traction forces. The sliding mass is divided into upper and lower parts, which are closely interconnected. The loose soil structure in the landslide area as well as the abundant water storage ahead and behind the slope serves as material source for the landslide formation and annual heavy rainfall during the rainy season acts as critical external triggers for landslides.③ The finite element numerical simulation results reveal that Jiubaoyan landslide remains relatively stable under the natural conditions but transitions to an unstable state under the rainfall conditions. It is possible to lead to large displacement landslide under the persistent extreme rainstorms. ④ The discrete element simulation results suggest that the slope is in an destabilized state under extreme rainfall conditions, with two parts of sliding mass are penetrated through two sliding zones. This further landslide instability may culminate in significant displacement landslide, resulting in considerable economic and human losses. ⑤ The research method combining finite element analysis with discrete element analysis not only corroborates on-site investigation, drilling, and monitoring, but also enables a quantitatively analysis of the formation mechanism and prediction of potential working conditions in the future. It is hoped that such a study can offer some useful references for studying similar multi-level landslide disasters in mountainous regions.

, correspAuthors=Wan-zhong XU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Ying-hang GUO, Ji-dong WEN, Yun-fei YANG, Xing-hao WANG, Wan-zhong XU, Zi-xuan YANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1245407865498873930, articleId=1245407860390212344, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=山地多级土质滑坡成因机制分析及演化趋势预测: 以重庆九包岩滑坡为例, columnId=1156262730077163858, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=论文·天文学、地球科学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=九包岩滑坡自2019年开始持续缓慢变形,2021年9月雨季,在持续的强降雨作用下该滑坡于该年9月17日发生变形滑移。通过实地踏勘、钻探、位移监测等传统工程地质勘探,采用有限元数值模拟方法Midas-GTS对不同工况下边坡的渗流场、位移场进行分析模拟计算,综合分析滑坡的成因机制,并进一步引入矩阵离散元数值模拟方法MatDEM,通过自编代码对暴雨工况下滑坡滑动演化趋势进行预测。结果表明:①有限元数值模拟结果与钻探结果一致,揭示九包岩滑坡滑动带位于第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(${J}_{2}^{sn}$)泥岩接触面;②有限元数值模拟结果与实地勘探结果显示:九包岩滑坡为以推移式为主牵引式为辅的多级浅层土质滑坡,分上下两部分滑体,两者紧密相接,滑坡区土层松散的结构以及坡体前后丰富的储水为滑坡的形成提供了物源基础,雨季丰沛的降雨为滑坡的外部诱发因素也是导致滑坡的关键因素;③有限元数值模拟结果表明:九包岩滑坡天然工况下处于基本稳定状态,降雨工况下处于欠稳定状态,持续发生极端暴雨情况下,有可能产生大位移滑坡;④离散元模拟结果表明:极端降雨情况下边坡处于失稳状态,两部分滑体通过两条滑带贯穿,滑坡进一步失稳发生大位移滑动,将造成巨大的经济损失及人员伤亡;⑤有限元离散元相结合的研究方法既能与勘察、钻探、监测相印证又可对成因机制进行定量分析,并能够对滑坡的后续演化进行预测,该方法可为类似的山地多级滑坡灾害研究提供参考和借鉴。, correspAuthors=许万忠, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 许万忠(1965—),男,汉族,黑龙江海林人,博士,教授。研究方向:岩土工程、水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。
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郭英航(2000—),男,汉族,黑龙江桦南人,硕士研究生。研究方向:水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。

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郭英航(2000—),男,汉族,黑龙江桦南人,硕士研究生。研究方向:水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。

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郭英航(2000—),男,汉族,黑龙江桦南人,硕士研究生。研究方向:水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。

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articleId=1245407860390212344, language=CN, label=图10, caption=土颗粒单元速度-时间关系曲线, figureFileSmall=V+afI+UW7Re+HWoO0/8GcQ==, figureFileBig=o+jkfhgArlp5BCvDxR9SXw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1245407876374705026, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1245407860390212344, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数 岩土体
${Q}_{4}^{del}$堆积土 J2sn泥岩 J3p砂岩
天然重度/(kN·m-3) 19.90 25.4 24.4
饱和重度/(kN·m-3) 21.09 25.7 24.6
黏聚力/kPa 27.30 1.28×103 5.69×103
摩擦角/(°) 13.90 34.59 41.33
弹性模量/MPa 22.62 1.33×103 6.64×103
泊松比 0.20 0.32 0.18
渗透系数/(cm·s-1) 3.43×10-4 2.5×10-4 2.26×10-4
), ArticleFig(id=1245407876513117071, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1245407860390212344, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

岩土体物理力学参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数 岩土体
${Q}_{4}^{del}$堆积土 J2sn泥岩 J3p砂岩
天然重度/(kN·m-3) 19.90 25.4 24.4
饱和重度/(kN·m-3) 21.09 25.7 24.6
黏聚力/kPa 27.30 1.28×103 5.69×103
摩擦角/(°) 13.90 34.59 41.33
弹性模量/MPa 22.62 1.33×103 6.64×103
泊松比 0.20 0.32 0.18
渗透系数/(cm·s-1) 3.43×10-4 2.5×10-4 2.26×10-4
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山地多级土质滑坡成因机制分析及演化趋势预测: 以重庆九包岩滑坡为例
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郭英航 1 , 文继东 2 , 杨云飞 1 , 王性昊 3 , 许万忠 1, * , 杨子萱 1
科学技术与工程 | 论文·天文学、地球科学 2025,25(7): 2721-2731
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·天文学、地球科学 2025, 25(7): 2721-2731
山地多级土质滑坡成因机制分析及演化趋势预测: 以重庆九包岩滑坡为例
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郭英航1 , 文继东2, 杨云飞1, 王性昊3, 许万忠1, * , 杨子萱1
作者信息
  • 1 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院, 昆明 650093
  • 2 中国有色金属工业昆明勘察设计研究院有限公司, 昆明 650051
  • 3 中国建筑材料工业地质勘察中心新疆总队, 乌鲁木齐 830000

    • 郭英航(2000—),男,汉族,黑龙江桦南人,硕士研究生。研究方向:水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。

通讯作者:

* 许万忠(1965—),男,汉族,黑龙江海林人,博士,教授。研究方向:岩土工程、水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。
Formation Mechanism and Evolution Trend Prediction of Multi-level Soil Landslides in Mountainous Areas: Taking the Jiubaoyan Landslide in Chongqing as an Example
Ying-hang GUO1 , Ji-dong WEN2, Yun-fei YANG1, Xing-hao WANG3, Wan-zhong XU1, * , Zi-xuan YANG1
Affiliations
  • 1 Faculffl of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
  • 2 China Nonferrous Metals Industry Kunming Survey, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Kunming 650051, China
  • 3 Xinjiang Headquarters of China Construction Materials Industry Geological Survey Center, Wulumuqi 830000, China
出版时间: 2025-03-08 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402664
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摘要
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九包岩滑坡自2019年开始持续缓慢变形,2021年9月雨季,在持续的强降雨作用下该滑坡于该年9月17日发生变形滑移。通过实地踏勘、钻探、位移监测等传统工程地质勘探,采用有限元数值模拟方法Midas-GTS对不同工况下边坡的渗流场、位移场进行分析模拟计算,综合分析滑坡的成因机制,并进一步引入矩阵离散元数值模拟方法MatDEM,通过自编代码对暴雨工况下滑坡滑动演化趋势进行预测。结果表明:①有限元数值模拟结果与钻探结果一致,揭示九包岩滑坡滑动带位于第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(${J}_{2}^{sn}$)泥岩接触面;②有限元数值模拟结果与实地勘探结果显示:九包岩滑坡为以推移式为主牵引式为辅的多级浅层土质滑坡,分上下两部分滑体,两者紧密相接,滑坡区土层松散的结构以及坡体前后丰富的储水为滑坡的形成提供了物源基础,雨季丰沛的降雨为滑坡的外部诱发因素也是导致滑坡的关键因素;③有限元数值模拟结果表明:九包岩滑坡天然工况下处于基本稳定状态,降雨工况下处于欠稳定状态,持续发生极端暴雨情况下,有可能产生大位移滑坡;④离散元模拟结果表明:极端降雨情况下边坡处于失稳状态,两部分滑体通过两条滑带贯穿,滑坡进一步失稳发生大位移滑动,将造成巨大的经济损失及人员伤亡;⑤有限元离散元相结合的研究方法既能与勘察、钻探、监测相印证又可对成因机制进行定量分析,并能够对滑坡的后续演化进行预测,该方法可为类似的山地多级滑坡灾害研究提供参考和借鉴。
九包岩滑坡  /  数值模拟  /  Midas-GTS  /  MatDEM  /  成因机制分析  /  滑动演化过程预测

Since 2019, the Jiubaoyan landslide has exhibited continuous and gradual deformation. On September 17, 2021, during the rainy season, the landslide was obviously deformed and slipped due to the continuous heavy rainfall. On the basis of traditional engineering geological exploration methods such as on-site investigation, drilling and displacement monitoring, the finite element simulation method Midas GTS was utilized to simulate and calculate the seepage and displacement field of the slope under different working conditions, the landslide formation mechanism was comprehensively analyzed. Furthermore, the Fast GPU Matrix computing of discrete element method (MatDEM) was introduced to forecast the trend of the landslide sliding evolution under rainstorm working conditions. The results indicate these as follows. ① The finite element numerical simulation results are consistent with the drilling results, revealing that the sliding zone of Jiubaoyan landslide is located at the interface between the quaternary landslide accumulation layer gravel soil (${Q}_{4}^{del}$) and the mudstone of the Jurassic Suining Formation (${J}_{2}^{sn}$); ② Both finite element numerical simulation and on-site investigation suggest that Jiubaoyan landslide is a multi-level shallow soil landslide mainly driven by push forces and secondarily propelled by traction forces. The sliding mass is divided into upper and lower parts, which are closely interconnected. The loose soil structure in the landslide area as well as the abundant water storage ahead and behind the slope serves as material source for the landslide formation and annual heavy rainfall during the rainy season acts as critical external triggers for landslides.③ The finite element numerical simulation results reveal that Jiubaoyan landslide remains relatively stable under the natural conditions but transitions to an unstable state under the rainfall conditions. It is possible to lead to large displacement landslide under the persistent extreme rainstorms. ④ The discrete element simulation results suggest that the slope is in an destabilized state under extreme rainfall conditions, with two parts of sliding mass are penetrated through two sliding zones. This further landslide instability may culminate in significant displacement landslide, resulting in considerable economic and human losses. ⑤ The research method combining finite element analysis with discrete element analysis not only corroborates on-site investigation, drilling, and monitoring, but also enables a quantitatively analysis of the formation mechanism and prediction of potential working conditions in the future. It is hoped that such a study can offer some useful references for studying similar multi-level landslide disasters in mountainous regions.

the Jiubaoyan landslide  /  numerical simulation  /  Midas-GTS  /  MatDEM  /  formation mechanism  /  sliding evolution process prediction
郭英航, 文继东, 杨云飞, 王性昊, 许万忠, 杨子萱. 山地多级土质滑坡成因机制分析及演化趋势预测: 以重庆九包岩滑坡为例. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (7) : 2721 -2731 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402664
Ying-hang GUO, Ji-dong WEN, Yun-fei YANG, Xing-hao WANG, Wan-zhong XU, Zi-xuan YANG. Formation Mechanism and Evolution Trend Prediction of Multi-level Soil Landslides in Mountainous Areas: Taking the Jiubaoyan Landslide in Chongqing as an Example[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (7) : 2721 -2731 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402664
正文
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重庆市地处中国西南部,位于长江中上游地区,市区覆盖80%的三峡库区面积。受库区内大型水库工程影响,辖区地域长期受长江及其支流强烈侵蚀,使得重庆地区滑坡[1-2]、泥石流[3]等地质灾害频发,每年雨季滑坡灾害尤其严重。因此,多学者对该区域滑坡的成因机制[4]、稳定性[5]及演化规律[6]做了大量的分析研究。王力等[7]以三峡库区240余处滑坡为背景,利用模型试验对降雨条件下土体的入渗特征及变形机理进行研究;彭令等[8]利用GIS(geographic information system)技术对三峡库区滑坡规模及发育特征进行了研究;朱赛楠等[9]以重庆石柱县龙井滑坡为背景,采用钻探、遥感信息解译、深部位移监测等研究方法对大型单斜层状基岩滑坡的成因机理及位移特征进行了分析。
数值模拟具有计算精度高、费用低、适应各种复杂形状等优点,在滑坡灾害分析领域应用广泛。Zhu等[10]为了揭示煤系土浅层滑坡的变形、崩解和破坏机理,通过抗剪强度折减的接触弹塑性FEM(finite element method),分析了浅层滑坡稳定性,揭示煤系土浅层滑坡的变形、崩解和破坏机理;谭银龙等[11]基于钻探、物探、深部位移监测资料结合有限元模拟方法Midas-GTS(geo-technical analysis system)对金鸡岭滑坡成因机制及稳定性进行深入分析;Hu等[12]采用分层多尺度有限元-离散元方法研究由渗流引起的边坡失稳问题并对临界水力梯度的侵蚀规律给出解释;王玉峰等[13]以青藏高原东南缘横断山脉乱石包滑坡为背景基于离散元数值模拟方法MatDEM(fast GPU matrix computing of discrete element method)对滑坡演化滑动全过程进行模拟仿真研究高速远程滑坡过程中的运动模式及摩擦热效应;靳福杰等[14]以南阳区膨胀土为研究对象采用有限元及离散元模拟方法揭示了大气循环作用下膨胀土边坡裂隙演化规律。
现场踏勘、钻探、位移监测是滑坡灾害防治十分重要的研究手段,现场踏勘及钻探等工程地质资料只能作为边坡稳定性定性评价的依据,不能对滑坡稳定性及演化趋势做出准确的定量计算;位移监测方法通过采集滑坡体不同部位的位移数据,可以揭示潜在滑动带的所在部位,但并不能对边坡稳定性及未来可能的滑动演化趋势进行有效预测[15],因此将数值模拟技术与上述几种工程地质方法相互配合,相互印证,可以对滑坡的成因机制及滑动演化趋势进行全面透彻的分析和预测。目前,有限元数值模拟[16]是较为普遍的数值模拟方法,其在研究连续问题时有着较高的准确性,但对于非连续或大位移滑坡问题该方法并不能准确计算出位移量,而离散元[17]方法可对非连续问题进行准确模拟计算。
山地多级滑坡[18-19]的形成往往受链锁效应影响,传统工程地质方法难以对其成因机制、各滑坡体之间的力学联动机制进行分析,并且无法对未来的滑动演化趋势进行预测。因此,基于现场踏勘、钻探、位移监测等传统工程地质方法的同时,引入有限元数值模拟方法Midas-GTS对重庆南川区九包岩滑坡成因机制进行深入分析,并进一步利用矩阵离散元数值模拟方法MatDEM对其滑动演化过程进行预测,结果可以为类似滑坡灾害的研究分析提供有价值的参考。
1 滑坡区地质环境条件及活动特征
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研究区位于重庆市南川区石莲镇拱桥村1组(29°3'40.80″N,106°54'36.06″E),距县城约42 km;滑坡区域属构造剥蚀低山地貌,南高北低,坡面因农作物耕种呈阶梯状分布;地质构造上研究区处于莲石向斜东翼,未见断层通过,岩层产状为275°∠30°,岩层单斜产出,区内主要发育2组裂隙,构造纲要图如图1所示。
1.1 气象条件及人类活动
研究区属典型的亚热带季风气候,降雨充沛,全年平均降雨量为1 309.4 mm,雨季和非雨季降雨量相差较大,雨季为每年的5—9月,降雨量约占全年的76%,以大雨和暴雨为主,最大年平均降雨量为1 449.5 mm,发生于1989年,最小年平均降雨量为846.9 mm,发生于1973年,当日最大降雨量为257 mm,发生于2016年6月28日,小时最大降雨量为113.2 mm,10 min最大降雨量为24.3 mm。区域总体地形呈凹形,属地下地表水径流区,降雨后向滑坡前缘地势低洼处排泄。
研究区原始地形地貌基本保持完好,未见工矿企业及城市开发建设区。斜坡地带多为灌木及菜地,地势平缓地带为居民区,坡脚为阶梯状水田。滑坡区均未形成人工挖、填方边坡,基本未对地质环境条件造成破坏,人类工程活动不强烈。
1.2 水文地质条件
研究区出露地层主要为第四系滑坡堆积层(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)和人工填土层(${Q}_{4}^{ml}$),下伏地层为侏罗系上统蓬莱镇组(J3p)砂岩及侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩夹砂岩。其中第四系滑坡堆积层(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)粉质黏土、粉质黏土夹碎石土、块石土为滑坡区主要土层。侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)紫红色泥岩广泛出露于各钻孔和探槽中,为滑坡区主要岩层。
研究区内地表水分布主要为滑坡体居民居住处附近4处水塘及滑坡中前缘多处水田,主要补给方式为大气降水补给,由于各处水塘及水田均未作防渗处理,使得地表水向坡体内部入渗或沿斜坡坡面以地表径流方式向滑坡前缘地势低洼处排泄。研究区内地下水的主要补给方式为降雨补给,由前文可知,该区降雨丰沛,故地下水补给条件较为良好。根据地下水的赋存条件、水理性质及水力特征可知,该区域内的地下水性质以第四系松散层孔隙水和基岩裂隙水为主,前者主要赋存于第四系滑坡堆积层中,受大气降水及地表径流补给,在缓斜坡地势低洼处汇集,向北侧地势低洼处排泄,多为就近补给,就近排泄,受季节性影响较大,多在雨季存在,后者主要赋存于浅表层基岩强风化带及岩层中,水量较小,动态不稳定。
1.3 滑坡发育特征及发生情况
如图2九包岩滑坡全貌图所示,滑坡平面形态呈“长舌”型,分布高程802.0~861.0 m,相对高差59.0 m;滑坡体长约300 m,平均宽约140 m,平均厚度约8 m,总体积约32.3×104 m3,主滑方向约4°,坡度为10°~18°。
九包岩滑坡自2019年开始持续缓慢变形,2021年9月雨季过后,在持续的强降雨作用下该滑坡于该年9月17日发生大变形滑移,经现场调查及监测数据分析,判定该滑坡为多级浅层中型土质推移式滑坡。
该滑坡滑体分上下两部分,上部滑体高程863~822 m,坡角18°左右,滑动面位于17~25 m深的第四系滑坡堆积层块石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面。下部滑体高程828~802 m,坡角12°左右,滑动面位于11~21 m的${Q}_{4}^{del}$与J2sn泥岩接触面,上部滑体剪出口与下部滑体剪入口相邻,根据钻探结果得到1-1'典型剖面如图3所示。
2 变形监测及数值模拟计算分析
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2.1 宏观变形特征分析
经现场实地踏勘可知,持续强降雨后,坡体发生明显变形,滑坡周界存在多处裂缝。滑坡前缘存在多处堡坎和陡坎鼓胀变形及多处小规模垮塌,中部房屋可见多处地裂缝和墙裂缝、水塘围堰倒塌等变形迹象,滑坡后缘可见拉张裂隙,其延伸长度约为21.5 m,宽度为6~9 cm,下错深度为4~11 cm,滑坡体周围边界明显且可见多处剪切裂缝,剪切裂缝延伸长度为6~19 m,宽度为2~21 cm,最大可见深度约60 cm,最大下错深度约60 cm,滑坡中后部土层较厚,且滑坡变形主要集中在滑坡中后部,钻探结果显示滑动面位于第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面,滑坡区宏观变形特征如图4所示。
2.2 监测位移分析
滑坡区共布设两台GNSS自动监测报警设备,GNSS1位于滑坡中后部房屋聚集区也即滑坡区上部滑体,GNSS2位于滑坡前部水田陡坎处即下部滑体,具体布置见图2。图5为1-1'典型工程地质剖面上两台监测设备监测位移与降雨之间关系图,降雨数据来源于国家科技资源共享服务平台—国家地球系统科学数据中心[20](National Earth System Science Data Center, NESSDC),该数据集以CRU发布的全球0.5°气候数据集和WorldClim发布的全球高分辨率气候数据集为依托,利用Delta空间降尺度方案生成。由图5可知,两测点位移趋势基本一致,GNSS2测点的位移略大于1测点,与之相比最大水平位移及最大竖向位移分别大了33、8 mm。两测点竖向位移在长期监测中虽有一定的变化但整体并未产生过大浮动,这是由于该斜坡高程较低、坡角较小且滑动范围不大,使得竖直方向产生的位移较小。滑体土层为第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$),土颗粒松散,渗透系数大,降雨时雨水快速渗入滑体内部,故两测点水平位移随每年雨季5—9月快速响应,降雨与变形效应同步,位移量显著提高,最大达到44.5、71.5 mm,随着雨季结束位移量逐渐趋于稳定。由此可知,丰富的降雨是该区滑坡的主要自然因素,但该滑坡由上下两部分滑体组成,而降雨后两滑体具体的滑动机制从监测数据及宏观变形特征并不能分析得出,所以本文利用有限元数值模拟软件Midas-GTS研究分析其滑动过程中具体滑动机制问题。
2.3 有限元数值模拟结果分析
取1-1'剖面基于Midas-GTS建立二维有限元仿真模型,在研究区现有地形地貌条件下计算天然工况及降雨工况的渗流场、位移场及塑性区并评价其稳定性。通过定义初始水头模拟地下水在研究区的分布情况,采用Mohr-Coulomb作为岩土体本构模型,采用强度折减法[21]计算稳定性系数。耦合降雨工况采用曲面流量(180 mm/d)模拟降雨入渗,由于研究区初始地下水水位较高使得土体饱水能力有限,故在边坡表面设置渗流面模拟土体吸水饱和后雨水沿坡面的径流情况,模拟计算所需物理力学参数皆参考岩土力学试验,如表1所示。
图6、图7为1-1'剖面两种工况下模拟计算结果。由图6可知,在天然工况下九包岩滑坡稳定性系数为1.200,坡体处于基本稳定状态,总水头最大值为82.790 7 m,最大孔隙水压力为708.429 kN/m2。由于研究区处于山谷地形后部,两翼地势高,地下水网在此处汇集,场地内初始地下水水位较高,超过第四系滑坡堆积层块石土与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面,且滑体与下部基岩岩性为土-岩二元结构,可推断在地下水长期浸润作用下,上下两部分滑体的渗流通道形成于泥岩接触面,上部滑体地形类似于凹字型,利于土体在此处的重力堆积,并且后缘坡角较大,导致上部滑体向下发生推移式滑动,滑动面位于第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面,地表最大位移为52.870 3 mm。
由图7可知,边坡降雨工况下的稳定系数降低为1.063 3,边坡整体处于欠稳定状态,总水头最大值为99.807 5 m,最大孔隙水压力为820.401 kN/m2。在降雨入渗作用下,地下水位上升,总水头及孔隙水压力显著增大,两者与天然工况相比,水头各增加了17.010 5 m和111.972 kN/m2。由图3地质剖面图可知,上部滑体区域的地下水水位位于土岩接触面处,上部仍有较厚堆积层,下部滑体地下水水位较高,已接近坡面。降雨时部分雨水沿上部滑体坡面入渗进入土体,使上部滑体重度增加,孔隙水压力增大,有效应力降低,c(黏聚力)、ψ(内摩擦角)值减小,抗剪强度减弱,塑性区进一步向下扩展延伸,地表最大位移为94.600 0 mm,与天然工况相比增大了41.729 7 mm。下部滑体天然水位较高,已接近坡面,故降雨入渗对其重度的增加、有效应力及抗剪强度的减弱影响不大,降雨使部分雨水沿坡面流至坡底,并由下部滑体剪出口向上反向入渗,在下部滑体的房屋荷载、上部滑体下滑力以及剪出口的反向渗流共同作用下,下部滑体发生牵引式滑动,位移场向上扩展,滑动带自剪出口向上延伸,地表最大位移为29.153 6 mm,如图7(a)、图7(b)所示。
3 滑坡成因机制分析
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结合现场踏勘、钻探、现场监测、数值模拟结果综合分析,推测该滑坡的形成是由外部诱发因素和内部因素共同作用所致,内部因素主要为研究区地形条件、地层岩性及物理力学性质,外部诱发因素主要为降雨入渗及丰富的地下水。
研究区上部滑体地形类似凹形,有利于土体在此处的重力堆积,且上部滑体区域坡角较大,使得滑体下滑力较大,天然工况下沿土岩界面发生推移式滑动,最大地表位移为52.870 3 mm,滑坡前缘为陡坎,并存在多处水塘及水田。综合上述条件,该地形为滑坡的形成提供了良好的空间条件。
研究区地层岩性整体呈土-岩二元结构,上部滑体为第四系滑坡堆积层块石土,土体颗粒较为松散、透水性好、渗透系数大,降雨工况下重度及孔隙水压力增大明显,有效应力及抗剪强度显著降低,为滑坡的形成提供了良好的物源条件。下部基岩主要为侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩,该泥岩密实度高,透水性差,雨水渗流至泥岩时渗流方向发生改变,雨水将沿土岩界面向坡外渗流,久而久之形成渗流通道,为滑坡的形成提供了适宜的滑床条件。
研究区属山谷地形,滑坡后侧及两翼地势较高,周围山体地下水汇聚于研究区内,地下水丰富,水位线已超过土岩接触面,土岩接触面在地下水渗流作用下形成渗流通道,为滑坡的形成提供了良好的渗流滑动条件。
研究区属亚热带季风气候,每年5—9月降雨丰沛,在降雨工况下上部滑体在雨水渗流作用下水头增大,地下水水位上升,孔隙水压力增大,有效应力及抗剪强度降低,与天然工况相比滑动进一步加剧,位移增大了41.729 7 mm,塑性区进一步向下发展。下部滑体因天然水位较高土体性质受降雨影响较小,降雨过程中土体渗流能力有限,部分雨水沿坡面流向坡底,在坡底水塘处汇集沿下部滑体剪出口向上渗流,在上部滑体向下推动荷载、下部滑体上部房屋荷载及剪出口渗流的共同作用下,下部滑体发生牵引式滑坡,塑性区自剪出口沿土岩界面向上扩展,与天然工况相比位移增大29.153 6 mm。
综合上述分析,上部滑体天然工况下因地形、岩性、地下水等条件率先发生滑动且在降雨工况下滑动加剧塑性区向下扩展,下部滑体在降雨工况受多种因素影响诱发滑动塑性区向上延伸,且上部滑体位移量及塑性区都远大于下部,因此九包岩滑坡并非简单的推移式或牵引式滑坡,而是以推移式为主为先在降雨条件下触发牵引式为辅两者共同作用的多级浅层中型土质滑坡。
4 滑坡区滑动演化过程预测
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上述滑坡机制分析结果表明:丰沛的降雨及地下水是导致稳定性系数下降和滑坡的主要因素。九包岩滑坡区日最大降雨量257 mm(2016年6月28日),小时最大降雨量113.2 mm,10 min最大降雨量24.3 mm,在暴雨工况下该研究区发生大位移滑坡失稳的可能性较大,因此利用数值模拟软件对暴雨工况下九包岩滑坡的稳定性进行仿真模拟是必要的,有限元数值模拟软件Midas-GTS对塑性区及稳定性系数的计算较为准确却很难解决非连续问题和模拟大位移滑坡的破坏演化运动过程,所以本文引入矩阵离散元软件MatDEM对九包岩滑坡区在暴雨工况下(257 mm/d)3 d的演化破坏运动进行全过程仿真模拟。
降雨工况在MatDEM中通过两个步骤进行实现,先利用自编写代码将坡面单元搜索得到,然后以两单元若含水率不同,两者接触后应趋于相同,最后两者含水率应为均值这一基本理论编写降雨入渗代码,对降雨入渗过程进行模拟,待降雨入渗完成后,利用软件中自置的稳定性分析代码,对坡体在重力荷载下的稳定性进行分析。
与Midas-GTS等有限元数值模拟软件不同,MatDEM中所使用的土体参数皆为微观参数。因此,以表1中的土体物理力学参数为基础,将其代入MatDEM中自置的材料模块中对土体参数进行训练得到计算所需的微观参数。
图8(a)~图8(c)为暴雨工况下Midas-GTS模拟计算得到的滑动带模拟结果云图及水头云图,图8(d)为MatDEM的暴雨工况滑动带云图。由图8(a)~图8(c)可知,在暴雨工况下稳定性系数降低至0.920 0处于失稳状态,雨水入渗影响下总水头继续增大,孔隙水压力进一步提高,滑体饱水后重度增加,上部滑体滑动带向下延伸,下部滑体滑动带向上扩展两者贯通形成一条完整滑动带,离散元摩擦热模拟结果8(d)显示第四系滑坡堆积层块石土(${Q}_{4}^{del}$)与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面处产生大量摩擦热,表示滑坡堆积层块石土沿土岩接触面发生大位移滑动并反映出上下两条滑动带形成贯穿与Midas-GTS模拟结果相呼应。
随着暴雨的持续,滑坡将发生大位移滑动。MatDEM的滑坡动态过程模拟如图9所示,取滑坡上所有土体单元的速度值得到平均速度,制成土颗粒单元速度-时间曲线,如图10所示。由图9、图10可知,在运动过程中重力势能转化为动能,滑体饱水后土颗粒单元之间黏聚力降低,基质吸力消失,随着自身解体碎屑化,土颗粒单元平均速度逐渐增加在启动13 s时达到最大值9.37 m/s[图9(a)~图9(c)],大部分堆积物也在此阶段堆积。随后剩余土颗粒单元继续以较高速度向下滑动图[图9(c)~图9(e)],在20~30 s阶段平均速度逐渐减小,以较为缓慢的速度向坡底滑动[图9(e)~图9(f)]。30 s后平均速度逐渐趋于0,在启动39 s后滑坡停止运动,仅有个别表面土颗粒单元向下运动,堆积过程基本完成。九包岩滑坡从启动至结束整个堆积运动过程约39 s,平均滑移距离约为75 m。坡上建有民房180间,农林田地32亩,变压器1座及输电线1 500 m,威胁资产累计高达426.8万元,一旦发生大位移滑坡,造成的经济损失及人员伤害无法估量。
5 结论
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在野外实地踏勘、钻孔勘测、现场监测数据的基础上,利用有限元数值模拟软件Midas-GTS及矩阵离散元模拟软件MatDEM对九包岩滑坡成因机制进行深入分析,并对极端降雨工况下滑坡区的滑动演化趋势进行预测,研究分析结论如下:
(1)钻探结果及Midas-GTS仿真模拟结果一致,揭示上下两部分滑体的滑动面皆位于第四系滑坡堆积层碎石土与侏罗系中统遂宁组(J2sn)泥岩接触面。
(2)九包岩滑坡属于以推移式为主牵引式为辅的多级浅层土质滑坡,滑体分上下两部分。滑坡区地形条件、滑体土层松散的结构,周围山体汇水及坡体前侧水塘水田丰富的储水为滑坡的形成提供了丰富的物源和场地条件。雨季长期丰沛的降雨及丰富的地下水是滑坡形成的外部诱发条件也即关键触发因素。
(3)天然工况下较高的地下水及坡前坡后丰富的储水使得坡度较大的上部滑体率先发生较小滑动,稳定系数为1.200 0处于基本稳定状态;降雨工况下,下部滑体在上部滑体的推移及剪出口水塘储水的入渗作用下发生滑动形成上下两条滑动带,稳定系数为1.063 3处于欠稳定状态,但若遇到极端暴雨情况有进一步发生失稳的可能。
(4)边坡极端暴雨工况下稳定性系数降低为0.920,处于失稳状态,上下两滑体滑动带向中部延展贯通形成一条完整滑带,进一步失稳破坏,形成大位移滑坡,这种灾害一旦发生,将造成无法估量的经济损失及人员伤亡。
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2025年第25卷第7期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402664
  • 接收时间：2024-04-12
  • 首发时间：2026-03-30
  • 出版时间：2025-03-08
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  • 收稿日期：2024-04-12
  • 修回日期：2024-07-26
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国家自然科学基金(41562016)
作者信息
    1 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院, 昆明 650093
    2 中国有色金属工业昆明勘察设计研究院有限公司, 昆明 650051
    3 中国建筑材料工业地质勘察中心新疆总队, 乌鲁木齐 830000

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* 许万忠(1965—),男,汉族,黑龙江海林人,博士,教授。研究方向:岩土工程、水文地质与工程地质。E-mail:。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
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Genus		 种数
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species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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