Article(id=1208051028902126199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1208051024368083510, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402718, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1713110400000, receivedDateStr=2024-04-15, revisedDate=1742140800000, revisedDateStr=2025-03-17, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1765951409792, onlineDateStr=2025-12-17, pubDate=1751040000000, pubDateStr=2025-06-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1765951409792, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1765951409792, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765951409792, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1208051024368083510, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='18', pageStart='7455', pageEnd='7883', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1765951408712, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765951896766, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1208053071507198943, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1208051024368083510, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1208053071507198944, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1208051024368083510, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=7778, endPage=7784, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1208051030248497868, articleId=1208051028902126199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Calculation of Minimum Water Demand of Vegetation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River Based on Potential Natural Vegetation, columnId=1156262735643005297, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Hydraulic Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to solve the contradiction between ecological maintenance and agricultural production water demand, the minimum water demand for ecological restoration in arid areas was determined. The lower reaches of the Tarim River were selected as the typical study area. Suitable areas for vegetation growth were determined through the PNV (potential natural vegetation) simulation method, while the suitable growth ranges and distribution areas of trees, shrubs, and grasslands were analyzed. The minimum ecological water demand for the lower reaches of the Tarim River was calculated by the multi-year evapotranspiration data from the AET dataset. The results show as follows. The PNV results obtaine in the lower reaches of the Tarim River are dominated by shrubs, forests and grasslands are highly dependent on water resources, mainly distributed around river channels. The forest and grassland in the study area show high growth potential, while the shrub distribution areas far from the river show a degradation trend. According to PNV simulation results, the ecological water demand in the lower reaches of Tarim River is about 11 279.23×104 m3, of which shrubs account for the largest proportion, while woodland and grassland account for 7.4% and 5.36% respectively due to their small areas. The research results provide a new method for ecological restoration and determination of water transport capacity in arid areas, which can clarify the scope of ecological restoration and vegetation types in the basin, and contribute to the management and optimal allocation of regional water resources.

, correspAuthors=Yun-fei LIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Zhen-wen WANG, Biao CHEN, Yun-fei LIU), CN=ArticleExt(id=1208051031720698710, articleId=1208051028902126199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=基于潜在自然植被的塔里木河下游植被最小需水量计算, columnId=1156262735810777459, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=论文·水利工程, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为解决生态维护与农业生产需水量之间的矛盾,厘定干旱区生态修复最小需水量。以塔里木河下游为典型研究区,通过潜在自然植被(potential natural vegetation, PNV)模拟的方法,得出植被生长适宜区域,并对乔木、灌木和草地的适宜生长区域和面积进行了分析,结合AET数据集的多年蒸散发结果,对塔里木河下游的最小需水量进行了计算,结果表明:塔河下游得出的PNV结果以灌木为主,林地和草地对水资源的依赖程度较高,主要分布在河道周边;研究区内的林地和草地均表现出较高的生长潜力,而距离河道较远的灌木分布区域表现出退化趋势;根据PNV模拟结果计算出的塔里木河下游生态需水量约为11 279.23×104 m3,其中灌木占比最大,而林地和草地由于面积较小,需水量占比分别为7.4%和5.36%。研究结果为干旱区流域生态修复及输水量的确定提供了新的方法,能够明确流域的生态修复范围和植被种类,并有助于区域水资源的管理和优化配置。

, correspAuthors=刘云飞, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 刘云飞(1991—),男,汉族,河南义马人,博士,助理研究员。研究方向:水文水资源。E-mail:
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王振文(1967—),男,汉族,新疆乌鲁木齐人,高级工程师。研究方向:水文与生态地理。E-mail:

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王振文(1967—),男,汉族,新疆乌鲁木齐人,高级工程师。研究方向:水文与生态地理。E-mail:

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DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121934., articleTitle=Multi-model assessment of potential natural vegetation to support ecological restoration, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1208085592374612273, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, awardId=E142010701, language=CN, fundingSource=新疆罗布泊湖区恢复问题专题论述研究项目(E142010701), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1208085584279605971, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1208085584292188887, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, companyId=1208085584279605971, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 Xinjiang Railway Survey and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Urumqi 830011, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1208085584334131930, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, companyId=1208085584279605971, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 新疆铁道勘察设计院有限公司, 乌鲁木齐 830011)]), AuthorCompany(id=1208085584451572452, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1208085584476738277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, companyId=1208085584451572452, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1208085584531264236, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, companyId=1208085584451572452, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1208085588490686498, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Location and land use type of the downstream of the Tarim River in 2020, figureFileSmall=Off1UMGIP85PjTTg2uIHfQ==, figureFileBig=N1HqS9LZtob+99Rnv6O2Fw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1208085588612321330, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2020年塔里木河下游土地利用分类, figureFileSmall=Off1UMGIP85PjTTg2uIHfQ==, figureFileBig=N1HqS9LZtob+99Rnv6O2Fw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1208085588830425157, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Potential spatial distribution characteristics of forest, shrub and grass in the downstream of the Tarim River, figureFileSmall=3/tawD/PK5zoGnKstkOctQ==, figureFileBig=eLiN/joszBz52f/m95skeQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1208085588994003034, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=图2, caption=塔河下游林、灌、草潜在空间分布特征

其他是指不透水地面和数据缺失区域

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Environmental factor variables

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编号 描述 编号 描述
bio1 年均温/℃ bio17 最干季降水量/mm
bio2 昼夜温差月均温℃ bio18 最暖季降水量/mm
bio3 等温性/% bio19 最冷季降水量/mm
bio4 温度季节变化标准差/% clay 黏粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio5 最暖月最高温度/℃ sand 砂粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio6 最冷月最低温度/℃ silt 粉粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio7 年均温变化范围/℃ sk 距水库距离/m
bio8 最湿季均温/℃ hd 距河道距离/m
bio9 最干季均温/℃ DEM 数字高程/m
bio10 最暖季均温/℃ GW04 塔河4月地下水位/m
bio11 最冷季均温/℃ GW05 塔河5月地下水位/m
bio12 年均降水量/mm GW06 塔河6月地下水位/m
bio13 最湿月降水量/mm GW07 塔河7月地下水位/m
bio14 最干月降水量/mm GW08 塔河8月地下水位/m
bio15 降水量变异系数/% GW09 塔河9月地下水位/m
bio16 最湿季降水量/mm GWD
), ArticleFig(id=1208085590881439899, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

环境因子变量表

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编号 描述 编号 描述
bio1 年均温/℃ bio17 最干季降水量/mm
bio2 昼夜温差月均温℃ bio18 最暖季降水量/mm
bio3 等温性/% bio19 最冷季降水量/mm
bio4 温度季节变化标准差/% clay 黏粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio5 最暖月最高温度/℃ sand 砂粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio6 最冷月最低温度/℃ silt 粉粒含量/(g·kg-1)
bio7 年均温变化范围/℃ sk 距水库距离/m
bio8 最湿季均温/℃ hd 距河道距离/m
bio9 最干季均温/℃ DEM 数字高程/m
bio10 最暖季均温/℃ GW04 塔河4月地下水位/m
bio11 最冷季均温/℃ GW05 塔河5月地下水位/m
bio12 年均降水量/mm GW06 塔河6月地下水位/m
bio13 最湿月降水量/mm GW07 塔河7月地下水位/m
bio14 最干月降水量/mm GW08 塔河8月地下水位/m
bio15 降水量变异系数/% GW09 塔河9月地下水位/m
bio16 最湿季降水量/mm GWD
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591095349423, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Table of NDVI value and vegetation coverage level

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NDVI 植被盖度/% 植被覆盖水平
NDVI0~1 NDVI0~255
>0.50 >191 >60 高植被覆盖
0.23~0.49 156~190 30~60 中植被覆盖
0.09~0.22 139~155 15~30 低值被覆盖
<0.08 <138 <15 裸地或极稀疏植被
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591263121600, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

NDVI值与植被覆盖水平的对应表

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NDVI 植被盖度/% 植被覆盖水平
NDVI0~1 NDVI0~255
>0.50 >191 >60 高植被覆盖
0.23~0.49 156~190 30~60 中植被覆盖
0.09~0.22 139~155 15~30 低值被覆盖
<0.08 <138 <15 裸地或极稀疏植被
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591426699467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Actual and potential distribution area and percentage of forest, shrub and grass in the downstream of the Tarim River

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植被
类型
ANV PNV
面积/km2 占比/% 面积/km2 占比/%
林地 0.798 0.049 38.837 2.40
草地 0.692 0.043 23.570 1.45
灌木 808.122 49.85 641.497 39.57
裸地 689.534 42.54 795.242 49.06
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591560917210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

塔河下游实际和潜在林、灌、草分布面积和百分比

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植被
类型
ANV PNV
面积/km2 占比/% 面积/km2 占比/%
林地 0.798 0.049 38.837 2.40
草地 0.692 0.043 23.570 1.45
灌木 808.122 49.85 641.497 39.57
裸地 689.534 42.54 795.242 49.06
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591711912173, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Area and percentage of actual and potential NDVI of forest, shrub and grass in the downstream of the Tarim River

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植被
类型
植被覆盖
程度
ANDVI PNDVI
面积/km2 占比/% 面积/km2 占比/%
林地 高植被覆盖 0.010 0.000 6 4.535 0.280
中植被覆盖 0.239 0.015 16.151 0.996
低植被覆盖 0.365 0.023 17.153 1.058
其他 1 620.366 99.962 1 583.141 97.666
灌木 高植被覆盖 1.085 4 0.067 56.274 3.472
中植被覆盖 93.450 5.765 63.235 3.901
低植被覆盖 332.628 20.520 393.892 24.299
其他 1 193.817 73.648 1 107.579 68.328
草地 高植被覆盖 0.002 0.000 1 6.983 0.431
中植被覆盖 0.084 0.005 7.151 0.441
低植被覆盖 0.297 0.018 9.410 0.580
其他 1 620.597 99.976 1 597.436 98.548
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591804186871, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

塔河下游林、灌、草实际与潜在NDVI的面积和百分比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
植被
类型
植被覆盖
程度
ANDVI PNDVI
面积/km2 占比/% 面积/km2 占比/%
林地 高植被覆盖 0.010 0.000 6 4.535 0.280
中植被覆盖 0.239 0.015 16.151 0.996
低植被覆盖 0.365 0.023 17.153 1.058
其他 1 620.366 99.962 1 583.141 97.666
灌木 高植被覆盖 1.085 4 0.067 56.274 3.472
中植被覆盖 93.450 5.765 63.235 3.901
低植被覆盖 332.628 20.520 393.892 24.299
其他 1 193.817 73.648 1 107.579 68.328
草地 高植被覆盖 0.002 0.000 1 6.983 0.431
中植被覆盖 0.084 0.005 7.151 0.441
低植被覆盖 0.297 0.018 9.410 0.580
其他 1 620.597 99.976 1 597.436 98.548
), ArticleFig(id=1208085591938404610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Water demand of forest, shrub and grass with different coverage in the lower reaches of Tarim River

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
植被
类型
植被覆盖
程度
面积/
km2
蒸散发/mm 需水量/104m3
平均值 标准差 平均值 标准差
林地 高植被覆盖 4.54 266.35 33.6 120.79 15.24
中植被覆盖 16.15 232.17 31.33 374.98 50.6
低植被覆盖 17.15 197.49 42.13 338.75 72.27
灌木 高植被覆盖 56.27 232.44 27.41 1308.03 154.25
中植被覆盖 63.24 204.52 32.55 1 293.28 205.83
低植被覆盖 393.89 184.29 25.19 7 259.04 992.21
草地 高植被覆盖 6.98 292.35 52.23 204.15 36.47
中植被覆盖 7.15 252.17 35.81 180.33 25.61
低植被覆盖 9.41 212.41 44.72 199.88 42.08
总计 11 279.23 1 594.56
), ArticleFig(id=1208085592143925525, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1208051028902126199, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

塔河下游不同盖度林、灌、草需水量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
植被
类型
植被覆盖
程度
面积/
km2
蒸散发/mm 需水量/104m3
平均值 标准差 平均值 标准差
林地 高植被覆盖 4.54 266.35 33.6 120.79 15.24
中植被覆盖 16.15 232.17 31.33 374.98 50.6
低植被覆盖 17.15 197.49 42.13 338.75 72.27
灌木 高植被覆盖 56.27 232.44 27.41 1308.03 154.25
中植被覆盖 63.24 204.52 32.55 1 293.28 205.83
低植被覆盖 393.89 184.29 25.19 7 259.04 992.21
草地 高植被覆盖 6.98 292.35 52.23 204.15 36.47
中植被覆盖 7.15 252.17 35.81 180.33 25.61
低植被覆盖 9.41 212.41 44.72 199.88 42.08
总计 11 279.23 1 594.56
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基于潜在自然植被的塔里木河下游植被最小需水量计算
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王振文 1 , 陈彪 1 , 刘云飞 2, *
科学技术与工程 | 论文·水利工程 2025,25(18): 7778-7784
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·水利工程 2025, 25(18): 7778-7784
基于潜在自然植被的塔里木河下游植被最小需水量计算
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王振文1 , 陈彪1, 刘云飞2, *
作者信息
  • 1 新疆铁道勘察设计院有限公司, 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 2 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 王振文(1967—),男,汉族,新疆乌鲁木齐人,高级工程师。研究方向:水文与生态地理。E-mail:

通讯作者:

* 刘云飞(1991—),男,汉族,河南义马人,博士,助理研究员。研究方向:水文水资源。E-mail:
Calculation of Minimum Water Demand of Vegetation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River Based on Potential Natural Vegetation
Zhen-wen WANG1 , Biao CHEN1, Yun-fei LIU2, *
Affiliations
  • 1 Xinjiang Railway Survey and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Urumqi 830011, China
  • 2 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
出版时间: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402718
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为解决生态维护与农业生产需水量之间的矛盾,厘定干旱区生态修复最小需水量。以塔里木河下游为典型研究区,通过潜在自然植被(potential natural vegetation, PNV)模拟的方法,得出植被生长适宜区域,并对乔木、灌木和草地的适宜生长区域和面积进行了分析,结合AET数据集的多年蒸散发结果,对塔里木河下游的最小需水量进行了计算,结果表明:塔河下游得出的PNV结果以灌木为主,林地和草地对水资源的依赖程度较高,主要分布在河道周边;研究区内的林地和草地均表现出较高的生长潜力,而距离河道较远的灌木分布区域表现出退化趋势;根据PNV模拟结果计算出的塔里木河下游生态需水量约为11 279.23×104 m3,其中灌木占比最大,而林地和草地由于面积较小,需水量占比分别为7.4%和5.36%。研究结果为干旱区流域生态修复及输水量的确定提供了新的方法,能够明确流域的生态修复范围和植被种类,并有助于区域水资源的管理和优化配置。

生态需水量  /  干旱区流域  /  PNV(potential natural vegetation)  /  蒸散发

In order to solve the contradiction between ecological maintenance and agricultural production water demand, the minimum water demand for ecological restoration in arid areas was determined. The lower reaches of the Tarim River were selected as the typical study area. Suitable areas for vegetation growth were determined through the PNV (potential natural vegetation) simulation method, while the suitable growth ranges and distribution areas of trees, shrubs, and grasslands were analyzed. The minimum ecological water demand for the lower reaches of the Tarim River was calculated by the multi-year evapotranspiration data from the AET dataset. The results show as follows. The PNV results obtaine in the lower reaches of the Tarim River are dominated by shrubs, forests and grasslands are highly dependent on water resources, mainly distributed around river channels. The forest and grassland in the study area show high growth potential, while the shrub distribution areas far from the river show a degradation trend. According to PNV simulation results, the ecological water demand in the lower reaches of Tarim River is about 11 279.23×104 m3, of which shrubs account for the largest proportion, while woodland and grassland account for 7.4% and 5.36% respectively due to their small areas. The research results provide a new method for ecological restoration and determination of water transport capacity in arid areas, which can clarify the scope of ecological restoration and vegetation types in the basin, and contribute to the management and optimal allocation of regional water resources.

ecological water demand  /  arid area watershed  /  PNV (potential natural vegetation)  /  evapotranspiration
王振文, 陈彪, 刘云飞. 基于潜在自然植被的塔里木河下游植被最小需水量计算. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (18) : 7778 -7784 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402718
Zhen-wen WANG, Biao CHEN, Yun-fei LIU. Calculation of Minimum Water Demand of Vegetation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River Based on Potential Natural Vegetation[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (18) : 7778 -7784 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402718
水资源可持续利用是解决干旱区生态用水问题,缓解内陆河流域植被退化和荒漠化的关键[1]。大量地表和地下水的开发利用推动了干旱区绿洲农业、社会经济和城镇规模的发展,但同时对下游的生态环境也造成一定的破坏[2]。中国西北干旱区的黑河、石羊河、疏勒河、塔里木河等内陆河流域下游区域的地表径流减少,地下水位下降,植被退化,沙尘天气等自然灾害的加剧,对当地的社会经济发展带来了严重的威胁。在全球变化背景下,国内外学者围绕着干旱区绿洲的水文循环过程和水资源平衡配置进行了大量的实验研究,并建立了一些区域适用性良好的水资源模拟和优化配置模型[3-6]。地表地下水、土壤水的相互转化与植物生长需求量之间的关系是实现水资源定量配给的关键。因此,一些研究尝试将生态学模型用于生态需水量的计算,如土壤植物大气连续体(soil-plant-atmosphere continuum,SPAC)研究极大限度上推动了水文水资源等问题的研究进程[7]
塔里木河流域是中国最长的内陆河,因其特殊的地理位置和脆弱的干旱生态系统,倍受中外学者的关注[8-10]。自2000年以来,塔里木河源流区的水资源供给总量较为稳定,但由于20世纪末水资源利用规模的不断扩大和利用效率的提高,使下游干流水量不断减少,大西海子以下河道断流,地下水位不断下降,台特玛湖在1972年出现了短期的干涸现象,两岸植被衰败,生态环境遭到了严重破坏[11-12]。然而,经过近20年的生态输水,塔里木河下游的植被得到了明显的改善,逐渐向天然植被状态发展[10,13]
因此,现将塔河下游作为研究区,通过模拟潜在自然植被的空间分布和植被覆盖水平来明确当前环境条件下的植被生长潜力,并计算潜在植被生长的需水量,从而为塔河下游植被恢复和生态输水制度的制定提供理论和数据支撑。
研究区位于塔里木河下游的大西海子水库至台特马湖区段,西依塔克拉玛干沙漠,东连库鲁克沙漠,是中国最干旱地区之一(图1)。20世纪末,受气候条件变化和人类活动等影响,塔里木河干流下游多次发生干涸断流情况,在频繁干旱的环境条件下,气候变化、水土流失等加剧塔里木河流域生态环境退化,过度放牧、滥挖滥采、毁林毁草开荒以及水土资源的不合理利用等活动是导致目前塔里木河干流沙漠化持续扩张的重要原因[14]。为了恢复和重建严重受损的生态系统,拯救塔河下游日益萎缩的“绿色走廊”,于2000年开始向塔河下游实施生态输水工程。此外,塔里木胡杨国家级自然保护区的建立,使塔河下游的生态环境得到了有效的保护。经过20余年的生态输水,塔里木河下游的植被得到了明显的改善,逐渐向天然植被状态发展。因此,明确该区域潜在植被的最小需水量对未来的植被恢复和生态输水制度的调整具有重要意义。
本文研究潜在自然植被模拟所实际的环境因子包含生物气候、土壤、地形和水文4个方面,如表1所示。气候因子主要是由世界环境变量数据库(WorldClim, https://www.worldclim.org/)提供的19个生物气候因子组成,分辨率为30″(≈1 km2)。土壤数据来源于SoilGrid全球土壤数据集,数据分辨率为250 m,该数据集由国际土壤参考信息中心(International Soil Reference and Information Centre,ISRIC)提供,涵盖了5、15、30、60、100、200 cm 6个图层的土壤特性信息。数字高程(digital elevation model,DEM)数据来源于地理空间数据云(http://www.gscloud.cn)。干旱区植被生长对地下水具有较高的依赖性。已有研究中,塔里木河、疏勒河、石羊河、黑河等位于中国西北干旱区的流域地下水与植被生长之间相关性的研究表明,地下水位对天然绿洲植被的稳定性具有重要的影响[15]。鉴于地下水对干旱区植被模拟的重要性,本文研究从塔里木河流域管理局获取了81口观测井的地下水位数据,并通过反向距离加权法对获取地下水位的空间分布数据[16]
2005—2015年NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)数据来源于由中国国家科学技术基础设施国家生态系统科学数据中心提供(http://www.nesdc.org.cn),数据分辨率为 30 m。2020年NDVI数据是通过影像数据是通过Sentinel-2A遥感影像进行计算获取的。影像来源于(https://scihub.copernicus.eu/)欧洲航天局发布的2020年7月10日—8月20日的Sentinel-2A遥感影像,影像云面积比小于5 %。相关研究表明,塔河下游和7、8月份为植被茂盛期,此时研究区植被与环境信息反映明显,获取情况较客观准确。影像数据为30 m空间分辨率,对于植被信息能够很好地表达。归一化植被指数计算公式为
$ \mathrm{NDVI}=\frac{\mathrm{NIR}-R}{\mathrm{NIR}+R}$
式(1)中:NIR为近红外波段的反射值,无量纲;R为红光波段的反射值,无量纲。
NDVI值所表示的植被覆盖度阈值分割按照传统分类方法分裸地或极稀疏植被带、低植被覆盖、中植被覆盖和高植被覆盖4个等级(表2)[17]
土地利用数据来自中国科学院航空航天信息研究所(https://data.casearth.cn/),数据分辨率为30 m。
所有环境因子、NDVI和土地利用分类数据的空间坐标系均统一为WGS_1984,并以Albers为投影坐标系;生物气候数据、DEM以及土壤数据统一按照研究区边界裁剪,并统一栅格数据行列数,转换并存储为ASCII格式,空间分辨率统一为30 m;上述操作均通过ArcGIS 10.7实现。
生态学中认为物种在处于一个没有任何竞争压力或环境条件限制的条件时,其熵最大时的状态最有可能反映或最接近于该物种分布的真实状态,即物种的潜在自然分布[18-20]。因此,本文研究通过最大熵模型(MaxEnt模型)进行塔河下游林、灌、草的潜在自然分布(potential natural vegetation,PNV)及其潜在归一化植被指数(potential normalized difference vegetation index,PNDVI)模拟。首先,通过ArcMap软件对环境因子数据进行Pearson相关分析,并筛选出相关系数|r|>0.8的变量用于进一步筛选[21],从而避免环境变量之间存在的多重共线性对模拟结果造成影响。初步筛选之后,通过MaxEnt模型计算各变量的贡献率,并将贡献率小于1%的环境因子变量剔除。经过上述筛选过程之后,将最终筛选出来的环境因子数据用于PNV和PNDVI分布结果预测。最后,将林、灌、草分布数据、NDVI分布数据和筛选后的关键环境因子导入MaxEnt 3.4.1中,并通过刀切法(Jackknife text)对生物气候变量进行评估[22]。模型通过10倍交叉验证分割数据集,该方法是将原始数据集随机分成10个部分,样本大小几乎相等,轮流合并其中9个作为训练集,其余1个作为测试集。模型预测准确性通过ROC曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)的大小来衡量,当AUC>0.7时,模拟结果可以用于进一步研究[23]
本研究实际蒸散发量来源于中国陆地实际蒸散发AET(actual evapotranspiration)数据集,该数据集由清华大学地学系开发的共享数据。该数据涵盖1982—2015年的蒸发蒸腾量、辐射和相对湿度等气象数据,空间分辨率为0.1°,时间分辨率为3 h。AET数据集采用严格的数据质量控制,站数据、卫星数据和再分析数据的统一融合方法,比世界上广泛使用的GLDAS数据集具有更高的精度。
本文研究利用Arcgis将AET数据集重采样,并根据研究区实际乔、灌、草分布,提取不同植被盖度34 a间的实际蒸散发数据,以计算获取的平均值作为需水量,基于PNV模拟结果得出塔里木河下游最小生态需水量。
根据物种适宜生存可能性的划分标准,将分布概率大于0.46的区域作为林地、草地、灌木和裸地潜在分布的模拟结果[21]。此外,当代表林地、草地、灌木和裸地潜在分布区域重叠时,选择分布概率最高的植被类型作为模拟结果。模拟结果(图2)表明,塔河下游的潜在自然植被分布区主要位于河道两侧。
其中,林地主要沿河岸分布,分布区域主要集中在西侧河道两侧和两河道交汇处。此外,胡杨是塔河下游研究区内林地的主要建群种,其生长与分布对地下水位变化较为敏感,通常分布于4~9 m地下水埋深的区域,随着河道向台特马湖延伸,河流的径流量逐渐减少,地下水位逐渐上升,胡杨的分布也逐渐减少这与模拟结果表现一致。草地的潜在分布也邻近河道,在研究区中上游的潜在分布区与林地的分布区相互重叠。与林地潜在分布不同的是在靠近台特马湖的研究区下游区域,随着地下水位的抬升,生境更加适宜芦苇等草本植物生长,因此草地的分布逐渐增加。灌木的潜在分布最为广泛,东侧分布范围整体大于西侧,西侧河道两侧的灌木通常被林地和草地将其与河道存间隔开来;裸地分布在植被的最外围。总体而言,塔河下游的潜在分布的植被类型以灌木为主,林草地通常临水而生,对水资源的依赖程度较高。
表3显示了实际和潜在林、灌、草分布面积和百分比。塔河下游PNV模拟结果表明,林地、灌木、草地和裸地潜在分布分别占研究区总面积的2.40%、1.45%、39.57%和49.06%。与实际植被覆盖(actual natural vegetation,ANV)相比,林地和草地的潜在覆盖面积均高于ANV,分别增加了38.039、22.878 km2;灌木的潜在覆盖面积减少了166.625 km2;裸地潜在分布面积增加了105.708 km2。由此可见,灌木潜在分布面积的大幅下降,导致潜在自然植被的总体覆盖面积整体减少,裸地面积大幅度增加。研究区内天然植被的潜在与实际分布差异可能与塔河下游的生态输水工程所修建的人工渠和生态闸口有关,研究表明人工渠的防渗功能和生态闸口的设置对研究区内河道两侧的土壤水分具有显著的影响,并以此影响塔河下游所分布的植被类型及其空间结构。
NDVI作为一种植被指数,其空间分布通常与植被覆盖一致。因此,在划定分布区域时同样将分布概率大于0.46的区域被用作PNDVI分布的模拟结果[24]。此外,不同植被覆盖水平的分布区域重叠时,将分布概率最高植被覆盖水平作为模拟结果。如图3所示,塔河下游PNDVI的整体分布与天然植被的分布相似,主要分布于塔里木河河道两侧。其中,高、中植被覆盖水平的PNDVI主要分布于西侧河道的英苏村至阿热勒希村区域;低植被覆盖水平的PNDVI在塔河下游河道两侧均有分布;裸露或及系数植被覆盖水平的PNDVI主要分布于距离河道较远的外围区域。
表4中的统计结果所示,研究区内的林草地PNDVI的空间分布整体表现为增加趋势,而灌木PNDVI的整体分布面积则呈现下降趋势。其中,低、中、高覆盖水平的林地面积分别增加了16.788、15.912、4.525 km2;灌木主要表现在低水平和高水平植被盖度面积的增加以及中度植被盖度面积的减少,面积变化分别为61.264、-30.215、55.188 km2;由于塔河下游草地的潜在分布本身就很少,虽然不同盖度水平的草地面积变化程度最大,但面积增加数量最小,低、中、高覆盖水平的林地面积分别增加了9.113、7.067、6.981 km2;尽管不同的植被覆盖类型和NDVI发生了许多变化,裸地和极稀疏植被覆盖仍是该区域的最主要覆被类型。
总而言之,在塔河生态输水工程定期输水的背景下,研究区内的林地和草地的分布面积和生长特征(盖度)均表现出较高的潜力。塔河下游林、灌、草的潜在与实际NDVI空间分布结果表明,尽管位于胡杨的重点保护区,但该区域的主要植被类型为灌木。
根据AET数据集提取的结果表明(表5),不同植被覆盖度林地的实际蒸散发量均值为197.49~266.35 mm,灌木为184.29~232.44 mm,草地为212.41~292.35 mm。基于PNV模拟结果,灌木面积最大需水量最多,为9 860.36×104 m3,占总需水量的87.24%,而林地和草地面积较小,需水量分别为834.52×104、584.35×104 m3,占比分别为7.4%和5.36%。总体上,为保障塔里木河下游植被生存,提高生态恢复效果,根据PNV塔里木河下游最小需水量约为11 279.23×104 m3
通过PVN模拟的方法,得出塔里木河下游的植被生长适宜区域,并对乔木、灌木和草地不同植被覆盖区的面积进行了确定,结合AET数据集的多年蒸散发结果,对塔里木河下游的最小需水量进行了计算,得出如下结论。
(1)塔河下游的潜在分布的植被类型以灌木为主,林草地通常临水而生,对水资源的依赖程度较高。
(2)研究区内的林地和草地在分布面积和不同类型植被生物量(盖度)在当下生态输水工程的背景下,均表现出较高的生长潜力,而距离河道较远的灌木分布区域表现出退化趋势。
(3)根据PNV模拟结果计算出的塔里木河下游生态需水量约为11 279.23×104 m3,其中灌木占比最大,而林地和草地由于面积较小,需水量占比分别为7.4%和5.36%。
结论表明,从植物生长的角度来看,塔河下游植被的NDVI仍有较大的提升空间。这说明生态输水有效地改善了生态闸口附近的生境,为胡杨和草本植物提供了较好的生长空间。然而,从灌木的分布范围来看,距离河道较远的区域或没有生态闸口分布的区域仍然存在着退化的风险,如中游和下游离河道较远的区域。这可能是因为人工渠的建设过程中,一些生态闸口的不合理分布或功能的缺失导致的。因此,为了加速该区域的生态植被恢复,在对胡杨林进行保护的同时,对塔河下游生态闸口等生态保护措施进行适宜性评价可进一步完善该区域的生态保护工作。研究结果为干旱区流域生态修复及输水量的确定提供了新的方法,能够明确流域的生态修复范围和植被种类,并有助于区域水资源的管理和优化配置。
  • 新疆罗布泊湖区恢复问题专题论述研究项目(E142010701)
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2025年第25卷第18期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402718
  • 接收时间:2024-04-15
  • 首发时间:2025-12-17
  • 出版时间:2025-06-28
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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-15
  • 修回日期:2025-03-17
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新疆罗布泊湖区恢复问题专题论述研究项目(E142010701)
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    1 新疆铁道勘察设计院有限公司, 乌鲁木齐 830011
    2 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011

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* 刘云飞(1991—),男,汉族,河南义马人,博士,助理研究员。研究方向:水文水资源。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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