Article(id=1156986619036262963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156963927277003616, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403464, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1715270400000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-10, revisedDate=1735488000000, revisedDateStr=2024-12-30, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1753776705749, onlineDateStr=2025-07-29, pubDate=1742227200000, pubDateStr=2025-03-18, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1753776705749, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1753776705749, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1753776705749, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1156963927277003616, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='8', pageStart='3079', pageEnd='3528', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1753771295613, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1753777038876, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1156988016305726153, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156963927277003616, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1156988016305726154, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1156963927277003616, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=3340, endPage=3348, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1156986619774460468, articleId=1156986619036262963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Green and Low-carbon Farmhouses in Western Inner Mongolia Based on Random Forest Algorithm, columnId=1156963932482130535, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Architectural Science, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to promote the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of rural areas in western Inner Mongolia, the data collected from the survey and literature was combined, the energy consumption of farmhouses was jointly simulated through DeST and Trnsys software, single factor analysis was carried out, the orthogonal test method was used to obtain multiple schemes, and the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on random forest algorithm was used to comprehensively optimize the enclosure structure and heating system, and selected the most suitable green and low-carbon farmhouse scheme in western Inner Mongolia. The results show that the optimal scheme of green and low-carbon farmhouses in western Inner Mongolia is as follows: the building is facing north and south, the floor height is${3.4}\mathrm{\;m}$, the ground is${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$polystyrene extruded polystyrene board (XPS) thermal insulation tile floor, the roof is${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$expanded polystyrene foam board (EPS) insulation board inverted concrete block roof, the external wall is${160}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$polystyrene extruded polystyrene board (XPS) insulation board external insulation concrete block wall, the external window is$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$double-layer ordinary glass inert gas plastic steel window, the south-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5, the north-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5, and the sunlight depth is${1.2}\mathrm{\;m}$. The material of the sunshine room is$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$double-layer inert gas ordinary glass + plastic steel window frame + thermal insulation curtains, and the wind power generation efficiency is${45}\%$. The heating energy consumption of the optimal scheme is${2661.15}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}$,the average indoor temperature on the coldest day is${11.62}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$, the carbon emission reduction is${10.02}\mathrm{\;t}/\mathrm{a}$, the solar heat gain is${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$, and the net present value$> 0$, which is economical and has a certain degree of popularization in the rural areas of western Inner Mongolia, providing a development direction for the green and low-carbon transformation of rural houses in western Inner Mongolia.

, correspAuthors=Ya-jie SHI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Guo-hui JIN, Ya-jie SHI, Zhi-jie SHI, Kai-ge ZHANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1156986716620940129, articleId=1156986619036262963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价, columnId=1154013916129648643, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=建筑科学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为推进内蒙古西部农村地区绿色低碳高质量发展,结合走访调查、文献收集的数据,通过DeST 和 Trnsys 软件联合模拟农宅能耗,进行单因素分析,利用正交试验法获得多组方案,采用基于随机森林算法的灰色模糊综合评价法对围护结构、采暖系统等方面进行综合优化研究,选出最适合内蒙古西部的绿色低碳农宅方案。结果表明:内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅最优方案具体为:建筑朝向坐北朝南、层高${3.4}\mathrm{\;m}$、地面为${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS) 瓷砖地面、屋面为${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$膨胀型聚苯乙烯泡沫保温板(EPS)倒置式混凝土砌块屋面、外墙为 160 mm 聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS)外墙外保温混凝土砌块墙、外窗为$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$双层普通玻璃惰性气体塑钢窗、南向窗墙比0.5、北向窗墙比0.5、阳光间进深${1.2}\mathrm{\;m}$、阳光间材质为$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$双层惰性气体普通玻璃 + 塑钢窗框 + 保温窗帘、风能发电效率${45}\%$。最优方案的采暖能耗为 2661.15kW·h,室内最冷日平均温度为${11.62}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$,碳排放减少量为${10.02}\mathrm{t}/\mathrm{a}$,太阳能得热量为${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$,净现值$> 0$,经济性良好,在内蒙古西部农村地区具有一定的推广性,为内蒙古西部农宅绿色低碳转型提供了发展方向。

, correspAuthors=史雅婕, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*史雅婕(1994-),女,汉族,河北张家口人,硕士研究生。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:2357135094@qq.com。
, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=eRRmeceamdqN9ns/QL0NFw==, magXml=MfZ8qyjM3ExjoInVo9QFZQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=YIontiQa5TLsg9kaEuVnEA==, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=C+PYfZs3FT87+rHHW+x/ig==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

金国辉(1965—),男,汉族,內蒙古巴彦淖尔人,硕士,教授。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:jinguohuimba@163.com。

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金国辉(1965—),男,汉族,內蒙古巴彦淖尔人,硕士,教授。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:jinguohuimba@163.com。

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金国辉(1965—),男,汉族,內蒙古巴彦淖尔人,硕士,教授。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:jinguohuimba@163.com。

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Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development and the long-range objectives for the year 2035, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1156986744404009089, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, awardId=51768053, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(51768053), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1156986744466923650, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, awardId=2019MS05007, language=CN, fundingSource=内蒙古自然科学基金(2019MS05007), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1156986744513060995, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, awardId=2022MS05005, language=CN, fundingSource=内蒙古自然科学基金(2022MS05005), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1156986725248623500, tenantId=1146029695717560320, 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the sunshine room, figureFileSmall=JO17iXiL+5rZk8FPwjeTPQ==, figureFileBig=hOEfY++i6OXAVCOn9rwHkw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743015694431, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=图3, caption=阳光间模型平面图, figureFileSmall=JO17iXiL+5rZk8FPwjeTPQ==, figureFileBig=hOEfY++i6OXAVCOn9rwHkw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743066026082, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Fig. 4, caption=Diagram of Trnsys wind-powered heating system, figureFileSmall=rP8SvBNoaWi3xkpMDcG9rA==, figureFileBig=dC8lLUEXa0/esjhbIlD8gA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743145717860, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=图4, caption=Trnsys 风能发电采暖效果图, figureFileSmall=rP8SvBNoaWi3xkpMDcG9rA==, figureFileBig=dC8lLUEXa0/esjhbIlD8gA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743200243815, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=Distribution of correlation coefficients between green and low-carbon rural housing schemes and indicators, figureFileSmall=uqT1I7kNbkIMBs8YIOOJvQ==, figureFileBig=tVXKyIYj+ab/yFp25LAurg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743288324202, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=图5, caption=绿色低碳农宅方案与指标关联系数分布情况, figureFileSmall=uqT1I7kNbkIMBs8YIOOJvQ==, figureFileBig=tVXKyIYj+ab/yFp25LAurg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1156986743342850155, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=Parameters of the envelope structure of the rural house benchmark model, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 围护结 构类型 部位 构造方式 尺寸/$\left({\mathrm{{mm}}\times \mathrm{{mm}}}\right)$ 传热系数/$\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}\cdot {\mathrm{K}}^{-1}}\right)$ 超低能耗建筑标准值/$\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}\cdot {\mathrm{K}}^{-1}}\right)$
1 外墙 全部 ${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 $+{370}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 普通烧结砖 $+{20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 - 1.357 0.10~0.15
2 外门 全部 钢质防盗门 ${1200}\times {2400}$ 2.110 $\leq {1.20}$
3 外窗 北侧 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1200}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
南侧 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1800}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
5 内墙 全部 ${10}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 $+{240}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 普通烧结砖 $+{10}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 - 1.669 0.10~0.15
6 内门 全部 单层木门 ${900}\times {2100}$ 5.700 $\leq {1.30}$
7 内窗 全部 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1500}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
8 屋顶 全部 ${30}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 石棉瓦 $+{30}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥砂浆 $+{25}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥石棉板 - 2.231 0.10~0.15
9 地面 全部 ${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥砂浆找平层 +40 mm 素混凝土垫层 - 3.432 0.15 ~0.30
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743414153326, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=表1, caption=农宅基准模型围护结构参数设置, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号 围护结 构类型 部位 构造方式 尺寸/$\left({\mathrm{{mm}}\times \mathrm{{mm}}}\right)$ 传热系数/$\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}\cdot {\mathrm{K}}^{-1}}\right)$ 超低能耗建筑标准值/$\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}\cdot {\mathrm{K}}^{-1}}\right)$
1 外墙 全部 ${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 $+{370}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 普通烧结砖 $+{20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 - 1.357 0.10~0.15
2 外门 全部 钢质防盗门 ${1200}\times {2400}$ 2.110 $\leq {1.20}$
3 外窗 北侧 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1200}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
南侧 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1800}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
5 内墙 全部 ${10}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 $+{240}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 普通烧结砖 $+{10}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 砂浆抹面 - 1.669 0.10~0.15
6 内门 全部 单层木门 ${900}\times {2100}$ 5.700 $\leq {1.30}$
7 内窗 全部 普通双层塑钢窗 ($6 + 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6$,距地 ${900}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$) ${1500}\times {1500}$ 3.100 $\leq {1.00}$
8 屋顶 全部 ${30}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 石棉瓦 $+{30}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥砂浆 $+{25}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥石棉板 - 2.231 0.10~0.15
9 地面 全部 ${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 水泥砂浆找平层 +40 mm 素混凝土垫层 - 3.432 0.15 ~0.30
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743514816624, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=Summary of the simulation results of the benchmark model of rural houses, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目名称 相关面积 建筑热负荷统计 建筑单位面积负荷指标
建筑面积/${\mathrm{m}}^{2}$ 建筑采暖 面积 $/{\mathrm{m}}^{2}$ 全年最大热 负荷 $/\mathrm{{kW}}$ 全年累计热 负荷/$\left({\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}}\right)$ 全年最大热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$ 全年累计热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$ 采暖期热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$
数量 110.88 102.72 34.44 24 706.28 335.29 240.52 54.76
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743581925489, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=表2, caption=农宅基准模型模拟计算结果汇总, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目名称 相关面积 建筑热负荷统计 建筑单位面积负荷指标
建筑面积/${\mathrm{m}}^{2}$ 建筑采暖 面积 $/{\mathrm{m}}^{2}$ 全年最大热 负荷 $/\mathrm{{kW}}$ 全年累计热 负荷/$\left({\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}}\right)$ 全年最大热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$ 全年累计热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$ 采暖期热负荷 指标 $/\left({\mathrm{W}\cdot {\mathrm{m}}^{-2}}\right)$
数量 110.88 102.72 34.44 24 706.28 335.29 240.52 54.76
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743657422963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=Summary of factors and levels of orthogonal experiments, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素 水平
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
建筑朝向/(${}^{\circ }$) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
建筑层高 $/\mathrm{m}$ 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0
屋面保温类型及厚度 ${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 木屑板 80 mmEPS 板 ${100}\mathrm{{mm}}\mathrm{{EPS}}$ ${120}\mathrm{{mm}}\mathrm{{EPS}}$ 80 mmXPS 板 ${100}\mathrm{{mmXPS}}$ 120 mmXPS 板
外墙保温类型及厚度 160 mmPUR 板 180 mmPUR 板 200 mmPUR 板 160 mmXPS 板 180 mmXPS 板 ${200}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ XPS 板 160 mmEPS 板
外窗玻璃类型 6C +9A +6C 6C +12A +6C $6\mathrm{C}+ 9\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ 6L + 9A + 6C 6L + 12A + 6C 6L + 9Ar + 6C
建筑南向窗墙比 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
建筑北向窗墙比 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
阳光间玻璃类型 6C 6L 6C +12A +6C $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ 6L + 12A + 6C $6\mathrm{\;L}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$
阳光间进深 $/\mathrm{m}$ 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
风能发电效率/% 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743728726134, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=表3, caption=正交试验选取因素与水平汇总, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素 水平
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
建筑朝向/(${}^{\circ }$) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
建筑层高 $/\mathrm{m}$ 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0
屋面保温类型及厚度 ${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 木屑板 80 mmEPS 板 ${100}\mathrm{{mm}}\mathrm{{EPS}}$ ${120}\mathrm{{mm}}\mathrm{{EPS}}$ 80 mmXPS 板 ${100}\mathrm{{mmXPS}}$ 120 mmXPS 板
外墙保温类型及厚度 160 mmPUR 板 180 mmPUR 板 200 mmPUR 板 160 mmXPS 板 180 mmXPS 板 ${200}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ XPS 板 160 mmEPS 板
外窗玻璃类型 6C +9A +6C 6C +12A +6C $6\mathrm{C}+ 9\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ 6L + 9A + 6C 6L + 12A + 6C 6L + 9Ar + 6C
建筑南向窗墙比 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
建筑北向窗墙比 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
阳光间玻璃类型 6C 6L 6C +12A +6C $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ 6L + 12A + 6C $6\mathrm{\;L}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$ $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$
阳光间进深 $/\mathrm{m}$ 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
风能发电效率/% 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 45.0
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743795835000, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=Calculation of the weights of factor variables in the western part of Inner Mongolia, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
目标变量 因素变量
A(建筑 朝向) B(建筑 层高) C(屋面保温 材料及厚度) D(外墙保温 材料及厚度) $\mathrm{E}($ 外窗玻 璃类型) F(南向 窗墙比) G(北向 窗墙比) $\mathrm{H}$(阳光间 玻璃类型) I(阳光间 进深) $\mathrm{J}$(风能 发电效率)
农宅采暖能耗 0.026 0 0.061 0 0.032 0 0.028 0 0.025 0 0.025 0 0.1570 0.1630 0.037 0 0.445 0
最冷日室内平均气温 0.0520 0.037 0 0.025 0 0.0190 0.0170 0.050 0 0.1140 0.6190 0.027 0 0.041 0
NPV 0.037 0 0.460 0 0.039 0 0.079 0 0.029 0 0.031 0 0.088 0 0.048 0 0.059 0 0.130 0
太阳能得热量 0.066 0 0.4630 0.036 0 0.032 0 0.022 0 0.030 0 0.1110 0.098 0 0.110 0 0.032 0
碳排放 0.026 0 0.062 0 0.035 0 0.026 0 0.023 0 0.022 0 0.1590 0.1630 0.040 0 0.444 0
因素变量权重 0.041 4 0.216 6 0.033 4 0.036 8 0.023 2 0.031 6 0.1258 0.218 2 0.054 06 0.2184
), ArticleFig(id=1156986743862943866, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1156986619036262963, language=CN, label=表4, caption=内蒙古西部农宅方案因素变量权重计算, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
目标变量 因素变量
A(建筑 朝向) B(建筑 层高) C(屋面保温 材料及厚度) D(外墙保温 材料及厚度) $\mathrm{E}($ 外窗玻 璃类型) F(南向 窗墙比) G(北向 窗墙比) $\mathrm{H}$(阳光间 玻璃类型) I(阳光间 进深) $\mathrm{J}$(风能 发电效率)
农宅采暖能耗 0.026 0 0.061 0 0.032 0 0.028 0 0.025 0 0.025 0 0.1570 0.1630 0.037 0 0.445 0
最冷日室内平均气温 0.0520 0.037 0 0.025 0 0.0190 0.0170 0.050 0 0.1140 0.6190 0.027 0 0.041 0
NPV 0.037 0 0.460 0 0.039 0 0.079 0 0.029 0 0.031 0 0.088 0 0.048 0 0.059 0 0.130 0
太阳能得热量 0.066 0 0.4630 0.036 0 0.032 0 0.022 0 0.030 0 0.1110 0.098 0 0.110 0 0.032 0
碳排放 0.026 0 0.062 0 0.035 0 0.026 0 0.023 0 0.022 0 0.1590 0.1630 0.040 0 0.444 0
因素变量权重 0.041 4 0.216 6 0.033 4 0.036 8 0.023 2 0.031 6 0.1258 0.218 2 0.054 06 0.2184
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基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价
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金国辉 1, 2 , 史雅婕 1, 2, * , 史智婕 3 , 张凯歌 1, 2
科学技术与工程 | 建筑科学 2025,25(8): 3340-3348
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科学技术与工程 | 建筑科学 2025, 25(8): 3340-3348
基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价
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金国辉1, 2 , 史雅婕1, 2, * , 史智婕3, 张凯歌1, 2
作者信息
  • 1 内蒙古科技大学 土木工程学院 包头 014010
  • 2 内蒙古科技大学 内蒙古自治区高校智能建造与运维工程研究中心 包头 014010
  • 3 辽宁师范大学 计算机与人工智能学院 大连 116000
  • 金国辉(1965—),男,汉族,內蒙古巴彦淖尔人,硕士,教授。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:jinguohuimba@163.com。

通讯作者:

*史雅婕(1994-),女,汉族,河北张家口人,硕士研究生。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:2357135094@qq.com。
Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Green and Low-carbon Farmhouses in Western Inner Mongolia Based on Random Forest Algorithm
Guo-hui JIN1, 2 , Ya-jie SHI1, 2, * , Zhi-jie SHI3, Kai-ge ZHANG1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Civil Engineering Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology Baotou 014010 China
  • 2 Intelligent Construction and Operation Engineering Research Center at Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology Baotou 014010 China
  • 3 School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence Liaoning Normal University Dalian 116000 China
出版时间: 2025-03-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403464
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为推进内蒙古西部农村地区绿色低碳高质量发展,结合走访调查、文献收集的数据,通过DeST 和 Trnsys 软件联合模拟农宅能耗,进行单因素分析,利用正交试验法获得多组方案,采用基于随机森林算法的灰色模糊综合评价法对围护结构、采暖系统等方面进行综合优化研究,选出最适合内蒙古西部的绿色低碳农宅方案。结果表明:内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅最优方案具体为:建筑朝向坐北朝南、层高${3.4}\mathrm{\;m}$、地面为${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS) 瓷砖地面、屋面为${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$膨胀型聚苯乙烯泡沫保温板(EPS)倒置式混凝土砌块屋面、外墙为 160 mm 聚苯乙烯挤塑保温板(XPS)外墙外保温混凝土砌块墙、外窗为$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$双层普通玻璃惰性气体塑钢窗、南向窗墙比0.5、北向窗墙比0.5、阳光间进深${1.2}\mathrm{\;m}$、阳光间材质为$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$双层惰性气体普通玻璃 + 塑钢窗框 + 保温窗帘、风能发电效率${45}\%$。最优方案的采暖能耗为 2661.15kW·h,室内最冷日平均温度为${11.62}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$,碳排放减少量为${10.02}\mathrm{t}/\mathrm{a}$,太阳能得热量为${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$,净现值$> 0$,经济性良好,在内蒙古西部农村地区具有一定的推广性,为内蒙古西部农宅绿色低碳转型提供了发展方向。

绿色低碳农宅  /  DeST 和 Trnsys  /  随机森林算法  /  灰色模糊综合评价  /  绿色低碳转型

In order to promote the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of rural areas in western Inner Mongolia, the data collected from the survey and literature was combined, the energy consumption of farmhouses was jointly simulated through DeST and Trnsys software, single factor analysis was carried out, the orthogonal test method was used to obtain multiple schemes, and the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on random forest algorithm was used to comprehensively optimize the enclosure structure and heating system, and selected the most suitable green and low-carbon farmhouse scheme in western Inner Mongolia. The results show that the optimal scheme of green and low-carbon farmhouses in western Inner Mongolia is as follows: the building is facing north and south, the floor height is${3.4}\mathrm{\;m}$, the ground is${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$polystyrene extruded polystyrene board (XPS) thermal insulation tile floor, the roof is${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$expanded polystyrene foam board (EPS) insulation board inverted concrete block roof, the external wall is${160}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$polystyrene extruded polystyrene board (XPS) insulation board external insulation concrete block wall, the external window is$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$double-layer ordinary glass inert gas plastic steel window, the south-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5, the north-facing window-to-wall ratio is 0.5, and the sunlight depth is${1.2}\mathrm{\;m}$. The material of the sunshine room is$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$double-layer inert gas ordinary glass + plastic steel window frame + thermal insulation curtains, and the wind power generation efficiency is${45}\%$. The heating energy consumption of the optimal scheme is${2661.15}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}$,the average indoor temperature on the coldest day is${11.62}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$, the carbon emission reduction is${10.02}\mathrm{\;t}/\mathrm{a}$, the solar heat gain is${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$, and the net present value$> 0$, which is economical and has a certain degree of popularization in the rural areas of western Inner Mongolia, providing a development direction for the green and low-carbon transformation of rural houses in western Inner Mongolia.

green and low-carbon farmhouses  /  DeST and Trnsys  /  random forest algorithm  /  gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  /  green and low-carbon transformation
金国辉, 史雅婕, 史智婕, 张凯歌. 基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (8) : 3340 -3348 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403464
Guo-hui JIN, Ya-jie SHI, Zhi-jie SHI, Kai-ge ZHANG. Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Green and Low-carbon Farmhouses in Western Inner Mongolia Based on Random Forest Algorithm[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (8) : 3340 -3348 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403464
建筑业是中国高能耗、高碳排放的行业之一, 2022 年,中国建筑业相关能耗占全社会总能耗的${37}\%$ ;建筑运行能耗高达${11.1}\times {10}^{8}\mathrm{{tce}}$,约占全国总能耗的 21%; 产生的与化石能源消耗相关碳排放为${22}\times {10}^{8}\mathrm{t}$,占全国碳排放总量的${22}{\%}^{\left\lbrack 1\right\rbrack }$。随着乡村振兴战略的不断开展,农村地区经济水平不断提高, 同时中国农村占地面积巨大, 新建农宅数量也在不断扩大。但由于农宅建造水平较城镇地区相对落后, 导致大部分农宅建筑施工质量不高, 室内热环境未达到良好效果, 从而使得能源消耗量居高不下。
Lü 等[2] 、金国辉等[3] 提出了利用相变材料对围护结构、采暖系统等与农宅采暖有关的部分进行优化。李洁等[4] 、金国辉等[5] 通过改造围护结构、增加阳光间等措施, 提高农宅的可再生能源利用率, 改善农宅室内舒适度。朱轶韵等[6] 、高源等[7] 通过一系列的软件模拟和多目标优化设计, 找出了符合研究地区实际情况的农宅节能方案。陈平等[8] 、李勤等[9] 通过对人工神经网络、$K$ -means 聚类、熵权- TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) 法等方法的应用与分析, 为农宅节能降碳方案高维多目标权衡提供参考。张森林等[10] 从建筑设计、建筑室内环境和场地生态与室外物理环境 3 个全新的角度建立农宅绿色舒适度评价体系,为庭院式农宅的设计与改造提供优化方向。
综上所述, 现有研究大多是对农宅建筑围护结构或者采暖系统单方面进行研究, 或者对既有农宅进行部分改造, 未考虑多因素的耦合影响, 且对农宅的研究很少与机器学习等人工智能方法结合, 使得农宅多因素方案组合的复杂问题的研究没有很好的进展。因此, 进行基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价研究具有重要意义。
运用随机森林算法代替灰色模糊综合评价法中常用的层次分析法、专家打分法等主观的权重算法, 可更加客观准确的计算出指标的权重; 运用灰色关联度法计算隶属度矩阵, 在模糊环境下考虑多个因素耦合, 对某一事物做出全面的评价, 为内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳转型研究提供一种新思路。对内能古西部绿色低碳农宅方案的构建, 考虑农宅本身空间和围护结构的绿色低碳设计的同时, 也考虑增设风能和被动式太阳能等可再生能源联合采暖系统,可为提升该地区农宅的可再生能源利用率提供研究方向。
提出一种基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价方法。该方法以内蒙古西部农宅为研究对象,从当地实际情况出发, 使用 DeST-h 与 Trnsys 软件相结合构造农宅基准模型, 进行单因素分析得到对方案影响较大的几个因素,运用正交试验法得出围护结构、采暖系统、可再生能源利用等多方面因素组成的多组绿色低碳农宅方案, 利用随机森林原理计算指标权重, 应用灰色模糊综合评价法建立评价模型对多组试验进行综合评分, 从而确定适用于内蒙古西部农村地区的最佳方案,整体流程如图1 所示。
选取包头市周围村庄作为研究地区,达尔罕联合旗气象参数作为主要气候参数来源, 根据走访调研及查阅文献收集相关数据构建农宅基准模型,具体为坐北朝南,层高${3.3}\mathrm{\;m}$,长${15.4}\mathrm{\;m}$,宽${7.2}\mathrm{\;m}$,建筑面积为${110.88}{\mathrm{\;m}}^{2}$。室内布局符合当地居民的生活方式且尽量多的利用被动式太阳能, 但无阳光间与风能发电系统的设置, 具体图形如图2 所示。使用 DeST-h 软件对农宅基准模型进行数值模拟。根据当地现存农宅相关数据对农宅基准模型围护结构及供暖系统进行设置, 具体参数设置如表1 所示。
模拟结果如表2 所示, 基准模型整个供暖期所需能耗为${24706.28}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}$,全年累计热负荷指标为${240.52}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}/{\mathrm{m}}^{2}$,能耗较高; 室内最冷日平均温度为$-{5.28}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$,处于零下。因此,内蒙古西部现存农宅在节能减排方面存在较大不足, 其绿色低碳转型之路还很漫长。且使用 testo${175}\mathrm{H}1$ 温湿度记录仪,在最冷日 (1 月 13 日) 进行实地农宅 24 h 不间断温度测试,误差率为${4.21}\%{\left(< 5\%\right)}^{\left\lbrack {10}\right\rbrack }$,在合理范围之内,所以模型的参数设置具有科学性。
通过附加阳光间、风能发电系统的构建, 对农宅采暖系统进行优化, 探究如何有效降低农宅采暖能耗、改善室内舒适度、提高可再生能源利用率,进而有效促进内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳发展。
在农宅基准模型南侧外墙处增设凸出式附加阳光间,按照《农村居住建筑节能设计标准》(GB/T 规定, 对附加阳光间进行参数设定 ,具体为单层通高、平屋顶形式,进深为 、 东西南三立面的窗墙比均为 1.0、透明围护结构为 单层普通玻璃与塑钢窗框,且在阳光间玻璃上增设保温窗帘, 维持室内温度的相对稳定, 阳光间平面图如图3所示。
对增设阳光间的农宅模型进行模拟, 得到的全年累计总能耗为${19642.62}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}$,最冷日平均室内温度为$-{2.89}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$,都明显优于农宅基准模型,被动式太阳能得到充分的利用。
选用${1.5}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$ 家用小型水平轴升力型风力发电机组, 利用串联 4 组免维护胶体蓄电池储蓄电量, 每个电池的充电效率为0.9、总电压为${48}\mathrm{\;V}$。选择的逆变器额定输出功率为${15}\mathrm{{kW}}$,逆变效率为 0.96,电压为${48}\mathrm{\;V}$。电散热器的具体分布位置在 3 个卧室各 1 组、客厅 1 组,共 4 组。
利用 DeST-h 软件对农宅基准模型进行数值模拟, 以计算出的全年逐时建筑热负荷为基础, 在 Trnsys软件平台上完成风能发电系统的容量配置, 形成风能发电采暖系统模型[12],具体的系统示意图如图4 所示。模拟出该系统发电量为${6392.67}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$ . h,节能率为 25.87%。
构建内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅方案, 首先要对影响农宅能耗和舒适性的各个因素进行分析。
通过对《中国建筑热环境分析专用气象数据集》中包头市典型气象年数据分析, 使用 Weather Tool 工具分析, 内蒙古西部农宅最佳建筑朝向的范围在南偏西 30°~ 南偏东 30°。
体形系数越大, 建筑外表面积就越大, 散热面就越大, 对建筑的保温隔热不利, 增加建筑能耗, 所以建筑层高的变化直接影响建筑能耗的变化。内蒙古西部地区农宅的建设要想向绿色低碳转型, 新建时就应该考虑较小体形系数的建设方法。可以新建联排农宅以减少外墙面积, 同时更要注意层高不能太高,从而从农宅本体改善上降低建筑采暖能耗, 提高室内舒适度。且经过实地调研和查阅相关标准及文献, 现存内蒙古西部农宅层高大多在${2.8}\sim {4.0}\mathrm{\;m}$
根据内蒙古西部农宅的调研, 内蒙古西部农宅多为含闷顶坡屋顶 + 倒置式屋面的形式。依据在当地市场收集到的数据和《农村单体居住建筑节能设计标准》(CECS中推荐的居住建筑屋面保温材料, 得出复合硅酸盐保温砂浆、憎水珍珠岩板、木屑板、膨胀型聚苯乙烯泡沫塑料保温板、挤塑型聚苯乙烯泡沫塑料保温板 5 种屋面保温材料, 厚度范围在 ,为最值得讨论的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅屋面保温材料。
根据《农村居住建筑节能设计标准》(GB/T 50824-2013) 规定,内蒙古包头市属于严寒地区, 外墙外保温是首选的外墙保温形式, 且对保温材料的性能要求严格。同时考虑到当地农户经济条件有限和材料易得性, 得到聚氨酯泡沫塑料 (PUR)、聚苯乙烯挤塑板(XPS)、膨胀型聚苯乙烯泡沫板 (EPS)、保温岩棉板和无机保温砂浆共 5 种当地易得的保温材料,厚度在${80}\sim {200}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$,为最值得讨论的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅墙面保温材料。
在内蒙古西部地区, 通常情况下外门窗占农宅围护结构总表面积的约 15%, 但通过外门窗损失的能耗占总能耗的 50% 以上。而外窗最耗能的部分是玻璃,选择适宜研究地区的玻璃类型是抵御冬季室外寒冷气候、降低农宅能耗、解决农宅整体节能问题的关键环节。在增加了附加阳光间后, 阳光间的保温性能与其玻璃类型也是息息相关的。
经过在当地走访调研和相关标准查阅, 得出符合内蒙古西部农宅节能保温且常用的 14 种玻璃类型,分别为$6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;L}$$6\mathrm{C}+ 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{C}+ 9\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;L}+ 9\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;L}+$ ${12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}\text{、}6\mathrm{\;L}+ 9\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}\text{、}6\mathrm{\;L}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}\text{、}6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+$ $6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C},6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C},6\mathrm{\;L}+$ ${12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{\;A}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;L}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$,其中,$\mathrm{C}$ 为普通玻璃,$\mathrm{L}$$\mathrm{{Low}}- \mathrm{E}$ 玻璃,$\mathrm{A}$ 为空气夹层, Ar 为氩气夹层,6、9、12 均表示厚度。
内蒙古西部地区太阳能丰富, 外窗是农宅室内获得太阳辐射、进行自然采光的主要构件,建筑能耗和室内温度会随着外窗窗墙比的变化而有所改变, 而外窗是围护结构中保温隔热能力最差的, 因此窗墙比是内蒙古西部地区农宅需要着重控制的指标。
根据《严寒与寒冷地区农村住宅节能技术导则》对严寒地区农宅不同朝向窗墙比的规定,以及当地农宅建筑朝向等的影响可以分析出南北向窗墙比增大对降低冬季采暖能耗、改善室内热舒适度以及提高经济性更有利。因此选择对南北向窗墙比在${0.2}\sim {0.8}$ 的变化的影响进行讨论。
按照《农村居住建筑节能设计标准》(GB/T 50824-2013) 规定, 阳光间进深宜等于或小于 ,又考虑到农宅居住者需要利用阳光间进行休息、晾衣以及储藏等活动,所以对 的阳光间进深进行讨论。并且标准中建议阳光间玻璃不宜直接落地,以免加大热损失,建议高出地面 ,因此,窗墙比为 0.9 时的阳光间最为适宜。
风能发电系统发电效率越高, 发电量越多, 农宅采暖期能耗就越小。但根据贝兹理论:理想情况下风能所能转换成电能的极限值比值为 16/27, 约为 59.3%。因此,实际上风能发电的效率远远不能达到 60%,一般的发电效率在 30%~50%,且不会经常达到${50}\%$,因此风能发电采暖系统的发电效率为 30%~45% 是最适宜讨论的状态。
通过实地走访调研、阅读相关文献、查阅相关标准以及询问有关专家等方式收集相关数据, 选取建筑朝向、建筑层高、屋面保温材料及厚度、外墙保温材料及厚度、外窗玻璃类型、南向窗墙比、北向窗墙比、阳光间玻璃类型、阳光间进深、风能发电效率 10 个因素, 每个因素 7 个水平, 利用正交试验原理[13] 得出 83 个具体方案,其中地面改为${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 厚 XPS 保温瓷砖地面, 外墙结构材料改为混凝土砌块, 屋面结构材料改为混凝土砌块坡屋面, 阳光间玻璃窗墙比为 0.9 ,但这些因素不在本研究因素变量的讨论范围内, 软件模拟时保持其改后不变即可, 正交试验选取的因素与水平如表3 所示。
选择农宅采暖能耗、最冷日室内平均气温、净现值 (net present value, NPV)、太阳能得热量和碳排放减少量 5 个指标作为方案的目标变量,结合 2.2 节 10 个因素变量, 利用基于随机森林算法的灰色模糊综合评价在 83 个综合方案中选出最优。其中, 农宅采暖能耗、最冷日室内平均气温、太阳能得热量 3 个目标变量由 DeST-h 和 Trnsys 软件联合模拟得出; NPV 利用式 (1) 计算; 对于标准煤,常规能源${\mathrm{{CO}}}_{2}$ 每年减少排放量通过式(2)计算。
$\mathrm{{NPV}}= \mathop{\sum }\limits_{{t = 1}}^{n}\left({\mathrm{{CO}}- \mathrm{{CI}}}\right){\left(1 + i\right)}^{-t}$
式(1)中:NPV为净现值,元,; CI 为年节约费用,元; CO 为初始投资费用,元;$i$ 为社会折现率,$\%;t$ 为使用年限,年。
取电价为 0.6 元/$\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}$,社会折现率为${10}\%$, 使用年限为 25 年。
${m}_{{\mathrm{{CO}}}_{2}}= \frac{{Q}_{\mathrm{A}}}{{Q}_{\mathrm{N}}\eta }{f}_{{\mathrm{{CO}}}_{2}}$
式(2)中:${m}_{{\mathrm{{CO}}}_{2}}$ 为二氧化碳排放减排量,$\mathrm{t};{Q}_{\mathrm{A}}$ 为节省的热量,$\mathrm{{MJ}};{Q}_{\mathrm{N}}$ 为标准煤的热值,取${29.308}\mathrm{{MJ}}/\mathrm{{kg}};\eta$ 为燃煤锅炉利用率,取值${0.77};{f}_{{\mathrm{{CO}}}_{2}}$ 为二氧化碳排放因子,依照煤炭排放标准取值${2.85}^{\left\lbrack {14}\right\rbrack }$
利用随机森林算法[15] 得出 10 个因素变量在 5 个目标变量作用下的特征权重如表4 所示, 最终得出建筑朝向、建筑层高、屋面保温材料及厚度、外墙保温材料及厚度、外窗玻璃类型、南向窗墙比、北向窗墙比、阳光间玻璃类型、阳光间进深、风能发电效率的综合权重依次为 0.0414、0.2166、0.0334、 0.0368 ,0.0232 ,0.031 6 ,0.1258 ,0.2182 ,0.054 6 , 0.2184 。
运用灰色关联度法[16] 计算出 83 组综合方案对于 10 个因素变量的关联系数, 如图5 所示。将关联系数作为隶属度矩阵,与综合权重向量合成灰色模糊综合评价矩阵$\mathbf{B}$,可表示为
$\mathbf{B}= ({0.52},{0.49},{0.55},{0.59},{0.44},{0.50},{0.59}\text{,}\\{0.47},{0.51},{0.54},{0.46},{0.45},{0.52},{0.53},\\{0.50},{0.57},{0.50},{0.47},{0.51},{0.46},{0.49}\text{,}\\{0.52},{0.66},{0.54},{0.47},{0.53},{0.63},{0.47}\text{,}\\{0.51},{0.42},{0.60},{0.44},{0.58},{0.52},{0.52},\\{0.44},{0.56},{0.45},{0.65},{0.45},{0.78},{0.55}\text{,}\\{0.51},{0.60},{0.48},{0.50},{0.48},{0.43},{0.59},\\{0.52},{0.50},{0.44},{0.47},{0.60},{0.43},{0.60}\text{,}\\{0.50},{0.52},{0.39},{0.61},{0.55},{0.48},{0.54}\text{,}\\{0.48},{0.42},{0.65},{0.56},{0.45},{0.66},{0.48}\text{,}\\{0.52},{0.55},{0.59},{0.55},{0.58},{0.59},{0.52}\text{,}\\{0.61},{0.00},{0.42},{0.52},{0.41},{0.53})$
根据最大隶属度原则[17] 选出方案 41 为最优方案,其隶属度得分最高为 0.78 ,远远大于其他方案。具体为建筑朝向为坐北朝南;层高为${3.4}\mathrm{\;m}$ ;地面为${20}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ XPS 保温瓷砖地面;屋面为${120}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ EPS 保温板倒置式混凝土砌块屋面;外墙为${160}\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ XPS 保温板外墙外保温混凝土砌块墙;外窗材质为$6\mathrm{C}+$ ${12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 双层普通玻璃惰性气体塑钢窗; 南向窗墙比 0.5 ; 北向窗墙比 0.5 ; 阳光间进深${1.2}\mathrm{\;m}$ ;阳光间材质为$6\mathrm{C}+ {12}\mathrm{{Ar}}+ 6\mathrm{C}$$6\mathrm{\;{mm}}$ 双层惰性气体普通玻璃 + 塑钢窗框 + 保温窗帘;风能发电效率 45%。
最优方案的农宅采暖能耗为${2661.15}\mathrm{\;{kW}}\cdot \mathrm{h}/\mathrm{a}$, 节能率高达 89.23%,极大降低了采暖能耗;室内最冷日平均温度为${11.62}{}^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$,相较于农宅基准模型提升 6 倍以上。由此可说明农宅围护结构的改善和可再生能源联合供暖系统的增设对内蒙古西部农宅绿色低碳转型有很大帮助。
最优方案的碳减排量为${10.02}\mathrm{t}/\mathrm{a}$,有效的呼应了国家节能减排的工作, 也为居民创造了良好的生活环境;太阳能得热量为${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$,有效利用了内蒙古西部丰富的可再生能源。由此可说明可再生能源联合供暖系统的增设可以有效地保护内蒙古西部的生态环境的同时也提高居民生活的品质。
最优方案的 NPV 为 3 155.16 元,为正值,经济上可行, 居民可以接受度较高, 可在内蒙古西部农村地区推广使用。
内蒙古西部农村地区在现有农宅大多为居民自建, 对农宅的各因素设计不适当, 使得其热工性能不佳, 应对恶劣天气的能力较差, 冬季采暖的能耗无谓的增加,室内热环境无明显改善。
在今后新建农宅或对既有农宅进行改造时, 建议在围护结构上加设适当的保温层, 使得农宅围护结构可更好的节能保温, 稳定室内热环境; 外窗玻璃类型也应有所改善, 可使用双层惰性气体中空玻璃,节能保温效果明显且经济性良好;窗墙比应设置适当,既不能过大,影响节能保温效果,又不能过小,影响采光通风效果。
内蒙古西部农村地区风能与太阳能等可再生能源丰富, 利用被动式太阳能和风能发电对内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳发展有重要意义。在新建农宅时, 要注重规划, 设置适当的建筑朝向和体形系数, 利用农宅主体更多的利用太阳能辐射得热。可在农宅的适当位置增设附加阳光间与小型风力发电系统联合的采暖系统,更有效地利用可再生能源, 减少一次能源的使用, 不仅能优化冬季农宅室内空气质量,还能减少碳排放,促进内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳高质量发展。
综上所述, 绿色低碳农宅效能优化是我国农宅绿色低碳转型的具体实践[18]。内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳发展, 需要综合考虑 “开源”“节流” 两个方面, 即最大程度地利用当地丰富的可再生能源的同时农宅本身进行绿色节能设计,同时也要兼顾方案的经济可行性。同时在进行方案构建和对比时, 要运用人工智能、大数据等先进的技术手段提高农宅方案与绿色低碳发展要求的契合度。
在中国建筑业积极推进绿色低碳发展的背景下, 为促进内蒙古西部农宅绿色低碳转型, 改善农宅采暖能耗高、室内舒适度差等问题,提出基于随机森林算法的内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅灰色模糊综合评价研究, 得出以下结论。
(1)考虑到内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅方案构建时, 数据样本少、因素指标具有模糊性等特征, 选择利用正交试验法获得相关数据; 运用随机森林算法计算指标权重,参考灰色关联度法建立隶属度矩阵;建立灰色模糊综合评价模型对方案进行选优。此方法能够克服主观赋权的随机性和臆断性, 科学的优选出最佳方案,为内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳转型研究提供一种新思路。
(2)通过对内蒙古西部农村地区的走访调查和相关文献资料的收集阅读, 了解研究地区现存农宅状况,建立农宅基准模型,模拟出其建筑采暖能耗为${24706.28}\mathrm{{kW}}\cdot {\mathrm{h}}_{\circ }$ 进行实地检测,数据与模拟数据对比,证明了模拟的准确性。且增设可再生能源联合供暖系统,提高了可再生能源利用率,促进内蒙古西部绿色低碳农宅的发展。
(3)选取建筑朝向、建筑层高、屋面材料及厚度、外墙材料及厚度、外窗玻璃类型、南向窗墙比、 北向窗墙比、阳光间玻璃类型、阳光间进深、风能发电效率 10 个因素, 每个因素 7 个水平, 利用正交试验原理得出 83 组综合方案。选择农宅采暖能耗、最冷日室内平均气温、净现值 (NPV)、太阳能得热量和碳减排量 5 个指标作为方案的目标变量, 利用基于随机森林的灰色模糊综合评价法在 83 组综合方案中选出最优。最终得出方案 41 最优, 该方案大幅度降低了建筑能耗, 极大改善了室内热环境, 碳减排量为${10.02}\mathrm{t}/\mathrm{a}$,太阳能得热量为${67702.75}\mathrm{\;{kW}}$, NPV > 0, 经济性良好。因此, 方案 41 为内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳转型提供了研究方向, 在内蒙古西部农村地区具有一定的推广性。
(4)内蒙古西部农宅的绿色低碳转型需要依靠可再生能源的利用和农宅本身的绿色低碳设计才能迅速进行,同时也要利用人工智能等先进手段提高方案构建的实用性。
  • 国家自然科学基金(51768053)
  • 内蒙古自然科学基金(2019MS05007)
  • 内蒙古自然科学基金(2022MS05005)
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403464
  • 接收时间:2024-05-10
  • 首发时间:2025-07-29
  • 出版时间:2025-03-18
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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-10
  • 修回日期:2024-12-30
基金
国家自然科学基金(51768053)
内蒙古自然科学基金(2019MS05007)
内蒙古自然科学基金(2022MS05005)
作者信息
    1 内蒙古科技大学 土木工程学院 包头 014010
    2 内蒙古科技大学 内蒙古自治区高校智能建造与运维工程研究中心 包头 014010
    3 辽宁师范大学 计算机与人工智能学院 大连 116000

通讯作者:

*史雅婕(1994-),女,汉族,河北张家口人,硕士研究生。研究方向:建筑节能与绿色建筑。E-mail:2357135094@qq.com。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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