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Article(id=1149776901847347240, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149776900194791454, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403437, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1715184000000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-09, revisedDate=1722441600000, revisedDateStr=2024-08-01, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752057775222, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1744905600000, pubDateStr=2025-04-18, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752057775222, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752057775222, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752057775222, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149776900194791454, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='11', pageStart='4397', pageEnd='4826', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752057774827, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1768456666677, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1218558837930512931, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149776900194791454, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1218558837930512932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149776900194791454, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=4448, endPage=4458, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149776902157725739, articleId=1149776901847347240, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Dynamic Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Vulnerability: A Case Study of Xichang Lushan Fire Site, columnId=1156262729351549255, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Astronomy and Geosciences, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to find out the susceptibility of debris flow after fire at different time points, the burned land where a serious fire occurred in Lushan Mountain, Changshou Township in March 2020 was selected as a demonstration research area. Based on the idea of “space for time”, the whole study was carried out. Through laboratory experiments, the root soil mechanical parameters of the study area at different time after fire were obtained. By using the experimental parameters obtained, the slope instability coefficient of different years after fire was obtained through the slope instability model. According to the slope stability division standard, the slope instability area of different years after fire was obtained. Finally, the source strength indexes of different years after fire were extracted. The dynamic evaluation index system of post-fire debris flow susceptibility at small watershed scale was established by taking source strength as static evaluation index and topographic and geomorphic index as static evaluation index. Using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of index factors combined with the comprehensive index method, the dynamic susceptibility assessment of debris flow was carried out on the burned land of Lushan Mountain in Changshou Township. Based on the results, targeted remediation of watersheds that remain highly susceptible for many years after a fire and those that are highly susceptible within a short period of time can effectively prevent and reduce the probability of mud slides, while also saving economic costs and achieving truly effective disaster prevention and mitigation.

, correspAuthors=Yong-gang GE, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Hai-xin CHEN, Yong-gang GE, Lu ZENG, Lian-bing YANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1149776931048092363, articleId=1149776901847347240, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=火后泥石流易发性动态评估:以西昌泸山火烧迹地为例, columnId=1156262730077163858, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=论文·天文学、地球科学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为了探明火烧后泥石流在不同时间点的易发性,选择2020年3月在经久乡泸山发生严重火灾的火烧迹地作为示范研究区,以“空间换时间”的思想为基础贯彻整个研究,通过室内实验,获取了研究区在火后不同时间的根土力学参数。利用获得的实验参数,通过坡体失稳模型,得到火后不同年限的坡体失稳系数,根据坡体稳定性划分标准,得到了火烧后不同年份的坡体失稳面积,最终提炼出火后不同年份的物源强度指标。以物源强度作为动态评价指标,以地形地貌指标作为静态评价指标,构成了小流域尺度下的火后泥石流易发性动态评价指标体系。选用熵权法计算指标因子的权重结合综合指数法,对经久乡泸山火烧迹地进行了动态的泥石流易发性评估。依据结果,对火烧后多年依然高易发的流域以及短时间内高易发的流域进行针对性整治,既能够有效地预防和减少泥石流的发生概率,又能节约经济成本,做到真正意义上有效的防灾减灾。

, correspAuthors=葛永刚, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 葛永刚(1974—),男,汉族,陕西凤翔人,博士,研究员。研究方向:山地灾害形成机理及预警技术。E-mail:。
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陈海鑫(1997—),男,汉族,广西北海人,硕士研究生。研究方向:山地灾害防灾减灾技术。E-mail:。

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陈海鑫(1997—),男,汉族,广西北海人,硕士研究生。研究方向:山地灾害防灾减灾技术。E-mail:。

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陈海鑫(1997—),男,汉族,广西北海人,硕士研究生。研究方向:山地灾害防灾减灾技术。E-mail:。

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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2020, 20(5): 1287-1304., articleTitle=Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C -means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1218843917806650068, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, awardId=2019QZKK0902, language=CN, fundingSource=第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0902), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1218843910814744692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1218843910823133301, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, companyId=1218843910814744692, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 Institute of Mountain Hazards and 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label=Table 1, caption=

Root-soil complex physical property parameters at different times after fire

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
类型 火烧烈度 火烧年限
(火烧后)		 黏聚力/
kPa		 内摩
擦角/(°)
松树 素土 — 7.2 21.2
未火烧 — 16.8 28.6
轻度火烧 4月 15.4 27.9
1年 14.2 26.5
2年 15.1 27.3
3年 16.7 28.6
中度火烧 4月 14.9 27.5
1年 13.1 26.1
2年 14.6 27.2
3年 16.7 28.6
重度火烧 4月 14.2 27.3
1年 12.4 26
2年 11.8 25.5
3年 10.9 25.1
7年 7.1 21.1
桉树 素土 — 6.7 24.1
未火烧 — 14.6 28
轻度火烧 4月 14.2 27.6
1年 13.5 27.4
2年 14.3 27.8
3年 14.6 27.9
中度火烧 4月 13.6 27.5
1年 12.1 27.2
2年 14.1 27.7
3年 14.6 27.9
重度火烧 4月 12.9 27.4
1年 11.7 27
2年 10.5 26.4
3年 9.4 25.9
7年 6.6 24.2
灌木 未火烧 — 15.3 29.2
轻度火烧 4月 14.8 28.8
1年 14.3 28.1
2年 15 29
3年 15.3 29.1
中度火烧 4月 14.3 28.6
1年 13.5 28
2年 14.8 28.2
3年 15.3 29.1
重度火烧 4月 13.8 28.5
1年 11 27.6
2年 14.4 28.1
3年 15.3 29.1
), ArticleFig(id=1218843917072646818, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

火后不同时间根-土复合体物理性质参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
类型 火烧烈度 火烧年限
(火烧后)		 黏聚力/
kPa		 内摩
擦角/(°)
松树 素土 — 7.2 21.2
未火烧 — 16.8 28.6
轻度火烧 4月 15.4 27.9
1年 14.2 26.5
2年 15.1 27.3
3年 16.7 28.6
中度火烧 4月 14.9 27.5
1年 13.1 26.1
2年 14.6 27.2
3年 16.7 28.6
重度火烧 4月 14.2 27.3
1年 12.4 26
2年 11.8 25.5
3年 10.9 25.1
7年 7.1 21.1
桉树 素土 — 6.7 24.1
未火烧 — 14.6 28
轻度火烧 4月 14.2 27.6
1年 13.5 27.4
2年 14.3 27.8
3年 14.6 27.9
中度火烧 4月 13.6 27.5
1年 12.1 27.2
2年 14.1 27.7
3年 14.6 27.9
重度火烧 4月 12.9 27.4
1年 11.7 27
2年 10.5 26.4
3年 9.4 25.9
7年 6.6 24.2
灌木 未火烧 — 15.3 29.2
轻度火烧 4月 14.8 28.8
1年 14.3 28.1
2年 15 29
3年 15.3 29.1
中度火烧 4月 14.3 28.6
1年 13.5 28
2年 14.8 28.2
3年 15.3 29.1
重度火烧 4月 13.8 28.5
1年 11 27.6
2年 14.4 28.1
3年 15.3 29.1
), ArticleFig(id=1218843917185893033, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Evaluate factor's VIF calculation results and weight

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火后
时间		 指标 方差膨胀
因子(VIF)		 容差
(TOL)		 权重
火后4月 纵比降 2.694 0.371 0.083 0
高程-面积积分 1.257 0.795 0.074 0
shp 2.887 0.346 0.100 8
沟壑密度 2.460 0.406 0.211 4
IC 3.955 0.253 0.100 8
圆度比 2.872 0.348 0.132 5
物源强度 1.853 0.54 0.295 0
火后1年 纵比降 3.137 0.319 0.066 5
高程-面积积分 1.330 0.752 0.074 0
shp 2.923 0.342 0.100 5
沟壑密度 2.747 0.364 0.208 0
IC 3.901 0.256 0.095 0
圆度比 2.886 0.346 0.126 0
物源强度 2.428 0.412 0.320 0
火后2年 纵比降 2.624 0.381 0.117 8
高程-面积积分 1.372 0.729 0.076 0
shp 2.926 0.342 0.100 2
沟壑密度 2.438 0.41 0.195 0
IC 3.889 0.257 0.098 0
圆度比 2.882 0.347 0.123 0
物源强度 1.796 0.557 0.290 0
火后3年 纵比降 2.525 0.396 0.138
高程-面积积分 1.447 0.691 0.077
shp 2.878 0.348 0.095
沟壑密度 2.423 0.413 0.186
IC 3.884 0.257 0.104
圆度比 2.838 0.352 0.124
物源强度 1.753 0.57 0.276
火后4年 纵比降 2.537 0.394 0.130
高程-面积积分 1.432 0.698 0.820
shp 3.015 0.332 0.113
沟壑密度 2.141 0.467 0.185
IC 3.914 0.256 0.105
圆度比 2.833 0.353 0.115
物源强度 1.564 0.639 0.270
), ArticleFig(id=1218843917290750644, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

各评价因子 VIF 计算结果以权重

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
火后
时间		 指标 方差膨胀
因子(VIF)		 容差
(TOL)		 权重
火后4月 纵比降 2.694 0.371 0.083 0
高程-面积积分 1.257 0.795 0.074 0
shp 2.887 0.346 0.100 8
沟壑密度 2.460 0.406 0.211 4
IC 3.955 0.253 0.100 8
圆度比 2.872 0.348 0.132 5
物源强度 1.853 0.54 0.295 0
火后1年 纵比降 3.137 0.319 0.066 5
高程-面积积分 1.330 0.752 0.074 0
shp 2.923 0.342 0.100 5
沟壑密度 2.747 0.364 0.208 0
IC 3.901 0.256 0.095 0
圆度比 2.886 0.346 0.126 0
物源强度 2.428 0.412 0.320 0
火后2年 纵比降 2.624 0.381 0.117 8
高程-面积积分 1.372 0.729 0.076 0
shp 2.926 0.342 0.100 2
沟壑密度 2.438 0.41 0.195 0
IC 3.889 0.257 0.098 0
圆度比 2.882 0.347 0.123 0
物源强度 1.796 0.557 0.290 0
火后3年 纵比降 2.525 0.396 0.138
高程-面积积分 1.447 0.691 0.077
shp 2.878 0.348 0.095
沟壑密度 2.423 0.413 0.186
IC 3.884 0.257 0.104
圆度比 2.838 0.352 0.124
物源强度 1.753 0.57 0.276
火后4年 纵比降 2.537 0.394 0.130
高程-面积积分 1.432 0.698 0.820
shp 3.015 0.332 0.113
沟壑密度 2.141 0.467 0.185
IC 3.914 0.256 0.105
圆度比 2.833 0.353 0.115
物源强度 1.564 0.639 0.270
), ArticleFig(id=1218843917416579773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Verification of debris flow evaluation results

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
沟名 火后发生泥
石流的时间		 动态评价
结果		 流域内中、重度
火烧占比/%		 沟道
长度/km		 流域面积/km2 坐标
王家澜坝北侧沟 2020-05-01 高易发 40.72(中度)
51.53(重度)		 1.834 1.142 102°15'52″E
27°48'26″N
2020-06-17 高易发
2020-07-18 高易发
2020-08-13 高易发
广福寺沟 2020-08-13 高易发 6.24(中度)
30.41(重度)		 1.130 0.396 102°15'54″E
27°49'46″N
广福寺南侧沟 2020-08-13 高易发 26.55(中度)
19.42(重度)		 1.041 0.343 102°15'55″E
27°49'30″N
高易发
响水沟右侧支沟1 2020-05-01 高易发 26.44(中度)
63.38(重度)		 1.560 1.010 102°15'17″E
27°48'21″N
2020-06-23 高易发
2020-07-18 高易发
听涛小镇西侧沟 2020-08-13 较高易发 23.57(中度)
46.90(重度)		 1.549 0.778 102°15'59 ″E
27°49'18″N
长浸沟 2020-06-14 高易发 38.4(中度)
57.2(重度)		 1.609 1.672 102°13'28″E
27°50'26”N
西庄村西侧沟 2020-06-14 较高易发 5.99(中度)
81.9(重度)		 0.830 0.314 102°15'08″E
27°51'27 ″N
), ArticleFig(id=1218843917550797507, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149776901847347240, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

泥石流评价结果验证

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
沟名 火后发生泥
石流的时间		 动态评价
结果		 流域内中、重度
火烧占比/%		 沟道
长度/km		 流域面积/km2 坐标
王家澜坝北侧沟 2020-05-01 高易发 40.72(中度)
51.53(重度)		 1.834 1.142 102°15'52″E
27°48'26″N
2020-06-17 高易发
2020-07-18 高易发
2020-08-13 高易发
广福寺沟 2020-08-13 高易发 6.24(中度)
30.41(重度)		 1.130 0.396 102°15'54″E
27°49'46″N
广福寺南侧沟 2020-08-13 高易发 26.55(中度)
19.42(重度)		 1.041 0.343 102°15'55″E
27°49'30″N
高易发
响水沟右侧支沟1 2020-05-01 高易发 26.44(中度)
63.38(重度)		 1.560 1.010 102°15'17″E
27°48'21″N
2020-06-23 高易发
2020-07-18 高易发
听涛小镇西侧沟 2020-08-13 较高易发 23.57(中度)
46.90(重度)		 1.549 0.778 102°15'59 ″E
27°49'18″N
长浸沟 2020-06-14 高易发 38.4(中度)
57.2(重度)		 1.609 1.672 102°13'28″E
27°50'26”N
西庄村西侧沟 2020-06-14 较高易发 5.99(中度)
81.9(重度)		 0.830 0.314 102°15'08″E
27°51'27 ″N
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火后泥石流易发性动态评估:以西昌泸山火烧迹地为例
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陈海鑫 1, 2 , 葛永刚 1, 3, * , 曾璐 1, 3 , 杨练兵 1, 3, 4
科学技术与工程 | 论文·天文学、地球科学 2025,25(11): 4448-4458
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·天文学、地球科学 2025, 25(11): 4448-4458
火后泥石流易发性动态评估:以西昌泸山火烧迹地为例
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陈海鑫1, 2 , 葛永刚1, 3, * , 曾璐1, 3, 杨练兵1, 3, 4
作者信息
  • 1 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 成都 610041
  • 2 西藏大学工学院, 拉萨 850000
  • 3 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 成都 610041
  • 4 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

    • 陈海鑫(1997—),男,汉族,广西北海人,硕士研究生。研究方向:山地灾害防灾减灾技术。E-mail:。

通讯作者:

* 葛永刚(1974—),男,汉族,陕西凤翔人,博士,研究员。研究方向:山地灾害形成机理及预警技术。E-mail:。
Dynamic Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Vulnerability: A Case Study of Xichang Lushan Fire Site
Hai-xin CHEN1, 2 , Yong-gang GE1, 3, * , Lu ZENG1, 3, Lian-bing YANG1, 3, 4
Affiliations
  • 1 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
  • 2 Engineering College, Tibet University, Lhasa 850000, China
  • 3 Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Process and Hazard, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
  • 4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
出版时间: 2025-04-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403437
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摘要
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为了探明火烧后泥石流在不同时间点的易发性,选择2020年3月在经久乡泸山发生严重火灾的火烧迹地作为示范研究区,以“空间换时间”的思想为基础贯彻整个研究,通过室内实验,获取了研究区在火后不同时间的根土力学参数。利用获得的实验参数,通过坡体失稳模型,得到火后不同年限的坡体失稳系数,根据坡体稳定性划分标准,得到了火烧后不同年份的坡体失稳面积,最终提炼出火后不同年份的物源强度指标。以物源强度作为动态评价指标,以地形地貌指标作为静态评价指标,构成了小流域尺度下的火后泥石流易发性动态评价指标体系。选用熵权法计算指标因子的权重结合综合指数法,对经久乡泸山火烧迹地进行了动态的泥石流易发性评估。依据结果,对火烧后多年依然高易发的流域以及短时间内高易发的流域进行针对性整治,既能够有效地预防和减少泥石流的发生概率,又能节约经济成本,做到真正意义上有效的防灾减灾。

火后泥石流  /  根土力学性能  /  指标体系  /  泥石流易发性动态评估

In order to find out the susceptibility of debris flow after fire at different time points, the burned land where a serious fire occurred in Lushan Mountain, Changshou Township in March 2020 was selected as a demonstration research area. Based on the idea of “space for time”, the whole study was carried out. Through laboratory experiments, the root soil mechanical parameters of the study area at different time after fire were obtained. By using the experimental parameters obtained, the slope instability coefficient of different years after fire was obtained through the slope instability model. According to the slope stability division standard, the slope instability area of different years after fire was obtained. Finally, the source strength indexes of different years after fire were extracted. The dynamic evaluation index system of post-fire debris flow susceptibility at small watershed scale was established by taking source strength as static evaluation index and topographic and geomorphic index as static evaluation index. Using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of index factors combined with the comprehensive index method, the dynamic susceptibility assessment of debris flow was carried out on the burned land of Lushan Mountain in Changshou Township. Based on the results, targeted remediation of watersheds that remain highly susceptible for many years after a fire and those that are highly susceptible within a short period of time can effectively prevent and reduce the probability of mud slides, while also saving economic costs and achieving truly effective disaster prevention and mitigation.

post-fire debris flow  /  mechanical properties of root soil  /  index system  /  dynamic assessment of debris flow susceptibility
陈海鑫, 葛永刚, 曾璐, 杨练兵. 火后泥石流易发性动态评估:以西昌泸山火烧迹地为例. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (11) : 4448 -4458 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403437
Hai-xin CHEN, Yong-gang GE, Lu ZENG, Lian-bing YANG. Dynamic Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Vulnerability: A Case Study of Xichang Lushan Fire Site[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (11) : 4448 -4458 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403437
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关于“火后泥石流”的最早研究可以追溯到1930年代,在这个时期,研究人员开始注意到火灾对地表水循环和土壤稳定性的影响,但对这种现象的认识仍然较为模糊。然而,在1935年,Eaton[1]在一篇关于美国加州一处经历了火灾后情景的文章中描述了一个类似于泥石流的洪水现象,并将其称为“特殊洪水”。随着时间的推移,对火后泥石流的研究逐渐深入,其对于环境管理和自然灾害预防具有重要意义[2-4]。文献[5-8]基于对火灾后泥石流的大量数据提出了预测火灾后泥石流发生概率及其规模的预测模型,这些研究为理解火后泥石流现象提供了重要的科学依据。近年来,随着地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)、遥感技术、数值模拟等技术的应用,泥石流易发性评价方法得到了极大的拓展。利用GIS技术可以对地形、植被覆盖、土地利用等空间信息进行综合分析,确定泥石流易发性的空间分布[9]。一些数值模拟技术则可以对不同影响因素进行定量分析,提高评价的科学性和精度。统计分析模型的主要任务是研究各个导致地质灾害的因素与其之间的关系,然后基于这种分析来评估特定区域地质灾害易发性[10]。其中,常用的统计分析模型包括层次分析、逻辑回归和信息量法[11-12]。当前,针对火后泥石流易发性评估缺乏相关研究,主要的难点就在于动态指标如何量化,缺少对火后不同年限物源变化特征的研究。对此,现在通过介绍基于火烧后根土力学性能变化的火后泥石流易发性动态评估方法,明确了火后泥石流易发性在不同时间点的变化,为后续火后泥石流的防灾减灾上提供了一定的思考和帮助。
1 研究区基本信息
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如图1所示,研究区所在的西昌市地处四川省西南部安宁河流域,东临西德市、昭觉市、普格市,南临德昌市,位于雅砻江西岸,与盐源市隔江相望,以及加冕县北部,总面积为2 897.1 km2。西昌市整体上南部高,北部低。西昌属于亚热带西南季风气候,西昌年平均降雨量大约是1 000 mm。西昌整年干湿季节较为分明,雨季大多集中于5—9月,其时间段降水相对较少,全年的日照时间较长,所以西昌气候总体上较为干燥。西昌年平均气温约为17.98 ℃,其中高温天气主要集中在5—8月,低温时节主要是12月—次年2月左右。极端高温主要出现在5—6月的谷地区域,最高温度约为39.4 ℃;而最低温度主要出现在高山地区,集中于1—2月,最低气温约为-1.9 ℃。
泸山火烧迹地主要以山地为主,北部地势较高,南部地势较低,以山地为主。山峰海拔介于1 500 m~2 310 m,山区沟谷纵横,地形崎岖,属于构造侵蚀剥蚀中山地貌。其位于攀西大裂谷中,地质构造异常复杂,是历史地震中心,地震基本烈度为9度。地貌主要由白垩系紫红色钙质砂岩,泥岩互层;紫红色块状含砾粗砂岩、长石石英砂岩、粉砂岩等构成,第四系全新统残坡积层则主要由含碎石的粉质黏土组成。
2 火后不同时间点根土数据来源
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2.1 火烈度分区及分区标准
2020年3月30日,四川省凉山州西昌市经久乡的泸山发生了森林火灾。严重的林火导致火烧迹地植被大面积烧毁,对植被的发育造成了严重的损害,导致整个森林生态系统产生了极大的影响。由于不同火烧程度下,对不同的植被影响程度不同。为探明火烧后植物根系对植被覆被坡体稳定性的影响,运用基于差分归一化燃烧指数(delta normalized burn ratiod, ΔNBR),并依据野外核实和火烈度计算方法[13],确定不同火烧烈度dNBR边界值,式中NIR为近红外反射率,SWIR为短波红外反射率,最终将火烧烈度分为未火烧、轻度火烧、中度火烧和重度火烧。dNBR的计算公式为
NBR= N I R - S W I R N I R + S W I R
ΔNBR=NBR火前-NBR火后
首先获得了经久乡泸山火烧迹地前后的Sentinel-2表面反射率影像(像素大小为20 m;火烧前后获取的影像过境的时间分别为:2020年3月25日,2020年4月9日;分别使用8a波段(NIR)和12波段(SWIR)计算dNBR,最后使用三次卷积插值将dNBR重采样到10 m像素大小,并在本地导出。根据表1的火烧烈度划分标准,将dNBR重新划分为未火烧、轻度火烧、中度火烧、重度火烧4个火烧烈度等级[14]。
研究区火烧迹地按照火烧程度结合野外考察的实际情况可以依次划分为重度火烧、中度火烧、轻度火烧和未火烧区,如图2所示。研究区过火总面积约为31.35 km2,其中严重火烧区面积15.64 km2,占比49.9%;中度火烧区面积569.1 km2,占比29.0%;轻度火烧区面积6.61 km2,占比21.1%。
2.2 植被类型分区
根土体的力学性质受多种因素耦合作用影响,其中根系形态的差异对其力学性质的影响尤为显著。为更加科学具体地描述出植被覆被坡体在经过野火的焚烧后,火后不同时间稳定性受植物根系的影响程度,基于野外核查确定的根系形态进行分区处理,并结合现有自然植被数据库,针对经久乡研究区域内植被类型进行裁剪预处理后,经野外实际考察核对,对根系类型进行重新分类。
根据对泸山上的优势物种的收集与研究,利用区域内具有绝对生长优势植物对其的根系类型进行分区,分区结果如图3所示。经久乡泸山火烧迹地的植物根据根系的深度,根系的主要生长方向和根系的主要形态特点,将其分为3类,既浅根须根型植物、中深根水平型植物、深根水平型植物(松树、桉树)。
2.3 野外采样与室内实验
采用以“空间换时间”为的思想为基础进行实验样品的采集[15],其理论依据是在特定的环境条件下,对空间过程的研究和对时间过程的研究是等价的。为了满足“空间换时间”的概念,本研究是以经久乡泸山火烧迹地为示范区,既采样时对主要采集经久乡以及其他火烧迹地(其中各个采样点的位置距离相隔不是很远,采样海拔相差不大,植被类型相同或相似)灌木、松树、桉树的根,还有研究区的对应火烈度下的土壤,进行重塑、直剪实验。其他火烧迹地采样点分别为冕宁县泸沽镇王家祠村七组(2016年3月19日发生火灾)、冕宁县石龙镇马鞍村(2021年4月20日发生火灾)、冕宁县大桥镇(2022年3月12日发生火灾)、西昌牛郎村(2023年6月10日发生火灾)。
为更加全面地了解经久乡火烧迹地火烧后不同年份的稳定性,基于以“空间换时间”的思想,采集个火烧年份分不同的样品,进行试验,来测量经久乡泸山火烧迹地根土复合体的强度参数。本研究安全系数计算参数主要通过室内试验获取,实验方法严格按照规范《土工试验方法标准: GB/T 50123—2019》[16]。
首先,对于在经久乡庐山火烧迹地采取的原位样,利用烘干法测定其天然含水率以及饱和含水率,利用环刀法确定其密度指标。通过以上实验操作,得到了重度火烧-松树根土复合体的密度,含水率,含根量(测试3组取平均值)的参数,并记录下来。接着选取在经久乡采集的重度火烧-松树这种状况下的散土,搭配其他火烧迹地采集的经过重度火烧的松树的根系4月、1年、2年、6年,根据之前记录下来的密度、含水率、含根量,以及基准来重塑不同火烧年限下的根土复合体。采用60 cm3的标准环刀进行重塑实验,重塑过程当中分层击实,为使根系交叉分布,需要在水平及竖直方向放上根系,将配置好的根土复合体进行剪切。对于其他状况下的根土复合体,也采取同样的方法去制作。制备好的样品用保鲜膜包起来,按照实验标准,存放8 h。通过室内直剪实验获得的不同火烧年限后的根土力学参数。须根类植物由于火后恢复的时间较快,既根土力学参数虽然在坡体稳定性的计算中没有变化,但仍是必要的计算参数。在饱和状态下,其黏聚力c=12.7 kPa,内摩擦角φ=23.2°。其他主要变化的计算参数如表1所示(饱和状态)。
根系在重度火烧后其根土力学性能在不同火烧年限后的自然的腐烂变化是具有一定的规律的[17],可根据重度火烧下-松树、桉树根土复合体的抗剪实验结果拟合其变化趋势(饱和状态下)如图4所示。根据拟合的变化趋势曲线,可以预测出火后4、5、6年重度火烧下松树、桉树的根土复合体的c、φ值,第7年根系基本腐烂,即由根系引起的黏聚力基本为0。
3 易发性动态评价
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3.1 小流域单元的提取
流域单元以分水线为边界,涵盖了泥石流形成和运移过程的整个范围。因此,本研究选取流域单元作为易发性评价的基本单元。通过奥维影像的绘制多边形,对于火烧迹地小流域进行提取,最终确定经久乡泸山火烧迹地为63个小流域(图5)。
3.2 评价指标体系的构建
3.2.1 动态指标:物源强度
依据前期的分区情况,以火后不同时间根土力学参数的变化为基础,利用斜坡稳定性模型,计算得到经久乡火后不同时间的坡体稳定系数(饱和状态下)。结合坡体失稳状态的划分标准,确定研究区火后不同时间点的失稳范围[18]。再结合研究区实际情况,认为经久乡火后不同时间的坡体安全系数小于1的区域,坡体更容易发生失稳,得到研究区火后不同时间点的潜在失稳区域。结合经久乡泸山火烧迹地火烧后不同年限的潜在失稳面积分布图,估算泥石流的潜在物源量,进而计算每个小流域单位面积上的物源量,得出物源强度因子S。整个流程如图6所示。
物源强度能够反映单位面积上的物源量,并与流域单元面积相关,泥石流的物源强度越大,对应的物源储量也越大,泥石流发生的概率增加;反之,物源强度较小时,泥石流的发生可能性较低。计算公式为
S= A S A
式(3)中:S为物源强度;AS为单个小流域的失稳面积,m2; A为单个流域的总面积,m2。计算结果如图7所示。
3.2.2 静态指标
(1)高程面积-积分:高程面积-积分(HI)的主要意义在于可以了解流域的发育状态和地质构造的活动程度[19]。通过分析HI值的空间分布,可以揭示不同地区的侵蚀程度和地质构造活动的差异,其计算公式为
HI= H m e a n - H m i n H m a x - H m i n
式(4)中:Hmax、Hmin、Hmean分别表示流域内高程最大值、最小值、平均值。计算结果如[图8(a)]所示,可以看出,流域内差异较大的地方主要位于泸山的上部。
(2)纵比降:纵比降越大,则流域水动力条件越好,固体物质动势能转换越快,越有利于泥石流形成[20]。其计算公式为
J= H m a x - H m i n L= Δ H L
式(5)中:J为主沟纵比降,‰;Hmax与Hmin分别为单个子流域主沟最高点及最低点高程,m;ΔH为沟床高程差,m;L为单个子流域的主沟长度,m。
计算结果[图8(b)]所示,可以看出,纵比降较大的流域为24条,占总体的37.5%,说明该火烧迹地总体上来看流域水动力条件较差。
(3)连通性:连通性是指河流流域内泥沙来源与下游区域之间联系程度的衡量,是影响河流流域地貌演变的一个关键特征[21]。从结果看[图8(c)],连通性系数处于中间值的流域占比较多,而连通性值较低的区域主要分布在火烧迹地左下侧,整体上符合火烧迹地长期干旱的特点。其计算公式为
IC=lg D u p D d n
式(6)中:Dup和Ddn分别为连通性的上坡分量和下坡分量IC值的大小定义在(-∞,+∞)范围内,IC值越大,泥石流沟的连通性就越佳,上坡物质被输送到达泥石流沟口的潜力就越大。
(4)沟壑密度:沟壑密度是流域形态的关键指标之一,能有效地揭示和描述流域的形态特征。沟壑是流域的重要组成部分,影响着水流的流动[22]。计算公式为
D= ∑ L A
式(7)中:D为沟壑密度;∑L为流域内沟道的总长度;A为单个小流域的总面积。沟壑密度反映了地表土壤受外界环境侵蚀的程度。计算结果如图8(d)所示。
(5)流域形状指数:流域形状指数是研究单个子流域盆地伸长度的另一个指标[23],计算公式为
shp= A d
式(8)中:d为单个子流域盆地的直径,m;A为单个子流域面积,m2。流域形状指数值越小,则表明流域盆地越狭长,反映流域汇水能力相对较弱;值越大,则表明流域盆地越接近圆形,反映流域汇水能力
相对较强。计算结果如图8(e)所示。
(6)圆度比:圆度比是指流域面积与相同周长圆形的面积之比,可用于评估流域内的构造活动强度[24]。其计算公式为
Rc= 4 π A P 2
式(9)中:P为流域周长;A为流域面积。计算结果如图8(f)所示。
3.2.3 多重共线性诊断与权重计算
(1)多重线性诊断:评估泥石流易发性的要求包括排除指标因子之间的相互干扰,为了判断指标因子间是否相互独立,通常需要进行共线性检验。一般来说,若方差膨胀因子(variance inflation factor,VIF)大于10,则表示指标因子之间存在多重共线性;相反,若VIF<10,则指标因子间相互独立[25]。利用SPSS软件对包含物源强度因子(火烧后不同时间点的物源强度不同)的8个指标进行贡献性诊断后,结果如表2所示。最终结果显示动态评价指标体系内,各个指标因子相互独立,干扰程度较低,用于泥石流动态评价中较为合理。
(2)权重计算:熵权法是一种客观赋权方法,基本思路是根据评价体系中指标变异性的大小来赋予指标客观权重。当评价体系中指标的变异程度越小,所反映的信息量也越少,其对应的权值也越低。利用熵权法计算火后不同年限各指标的权重大小,如表2所示。
3.3 火后泥石流易发性动态评价
3.3.1 评价方法
综合指数法是一种常用的泥石流易发性评价方法,它通过综合考虑多个因素来评估泥石流的可能性。这种方法通常包括选择一系列地质、地貌和气候等因素,然后将它们组合成一个综合指数,用于评估泥石流的易发性[26]。根据前文选取指标的权重、取值,依据综合指数法进行泥石流孕灾环境计算,计算通用计算公式为
Hi= ∑ j = 1 n w i vj
式(10)中:Hi为i单元泥石流灾害易发性值;n为评价指标个数;wi为第j个评价指标在第i评价单元的赋值;vj为第j个评价因子的权重。
3.3.2 火后泥石流动态易发性评价
通过综合指数模型将各评价指标数值进行加权求和,对研究目标进行综合衡量。利用小流域作为评价单元,将地质环境因素包括高程、纵比降、沟壑密度、连通性、流域形状指数、圆度比作为静态的评价指标,物源强度作为动态评价指标。结合熵权法计算出的各个指标因子的权重,对各指标各子类别量化评分赋值。主要是利用 ArcGIS 软件对指标栅格图件进行重分类赋值并进行叠加,根据得分情况,利用自然断点法对得分结果进行分类。结果表明,综合指数越大,那么在该流域内易发性等级就会越高,结果如图9所示。从易发性结果来看,火烧后4月,泥石流的高易发区占比43.47%,较高易发区占比30.26%;火后1年,泥石流的高易发区占比56.79%,较高易发区占比28.18%;火后2年,泥石流的高易发区占比18.32%,较高易发区占比26.40%;火后3年,泥石流的高易发区占13.33%,较高易发区占比19.3%;火后4年,泥石流的高易发区占比13.33%,较高易发区占比9.72%。
3.3.3 易发性动态评估结果验证
基于前文得到的易发性结果,通过收集以往该区域发生的灾害历史(表3)以及现场考察访问进行验证,评价结果与实际情况有所吻合,表明该方法做出的易发性动态评价具有一定的意义。
验证研究区火后3年火烧迹地恢复基本情况,对经久乡泸山火烧迹地响水沟右侧支沟1(高易发)、响水沟主沟(高易发)进行了考察核对(图10)。由于火灾的影响,响水沟右侧支沟1以及响水沟主沟内的松散固体物质十分丰富,导致泥石流形成所需的临界降雨量逐渐降低,加之沟道地势陡峭,在物源、动力和水利条件的共同作用下,极为有利于泥石流的发育和形成,使得两条沟道内的泥石流在火后3年仍然处于活跃阶段,为高易发泥石流。考察过程中在两个沟道内发现了新鲜的混杂堆积体,再次证明了动态易发性的评价结果精度较高,与实际的泥石流发育形成比较吻合。由于在火烧后1~2年,该火烧迹地的部分区域植被经过大量的人工修复,生态环境得到了改善,无法按照每年具体的易发性进行准确的灾害历史核查。但本方法依然具有意义,可运用该方法,对山区新发生火灾的火烧迹地进行不同时间点的火后泥石流动态易发性的预测,将高易发的流域进行重点防治,这样既能够有效预防和减少泥石流的发生概率,又能节约经济成本,做到真正意义上有效的防灾减灾。
4 结论
收起
以物源强度作为动态评价指标,以地形地貌因素作为静态指标,构成了小流域尺度下的火后泥石流易发性动态评价指标体系。选用熵权法计算指标因子的权重结合综合指数法,对经久乡泸山火烧迹地进行了动态的泥石流易发性评估,得到可如下的规律。
(1)从火后不同年份的根土力学参数结合物源强度变化图上来看,在轻度,中度火烧下,松树、桉树、灌木类植物的根土力学性能在2~3年内基本恢复;重度火烧下的松树、桉树,根土力学性能在很长的一段时间内会不断下降。潜在失稳区主要分布在经过重度火烧且多年生植物分布较多的区域。在时间尺度上看,随着火后时间的增加,该类区域潜在失稳区可能呈现出先增加后减少的趋势。
(2)从每年易发性结果占比来看,随着火后时间的增长,大部分流域泥石流的易发性呈现出先大后小的规律,小部分流域泥石流易发性会逐渐增加。
(3)火后不同时间点的易发性结果表明:从整体上看,随着火后时间的增长,大部分流域泥石流的易发性呈现出先大后小的规律,小部分流域泥石流易发性会逐渐增加。通过实地考察,结合评价结果以及现实情况对高易发泥石流沟道进行考察,证明动态易发性的模型的精度较高。
基金
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  • 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0902)
文献
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2025年第25卷第11期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2403437
  • 接收时间：2024-05-09
  • 首发时间：2025-07-09
  • 出版时间：2025-04-18
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  • 收稿日期：2024-05-09
  • 修回日期：2024-08-01
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0902)
作者信息
    1 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 成都 610041
    2 西藏大学工学院, 拉萨 850000
    3 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 成都 610041
    4 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

通讯作者:

* 葛永刚(1974—),男,汉族,陕西凤翔人,博士,研究员。研究方向:山地灾害形成机理及预警技术。E-mail:。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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