Article(id=1149774728350626440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149774724923880044, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405724, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1722268800000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-30, revisedDate=1739462400000, revisedDateStr=2025-02-14, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752057257019, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1745769600000, pubDateStr=2025-04-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752057257019, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752057257019, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752057257019, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149774724923880044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='12', pageStart='4827', pageEnd='5272', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752057256203, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1768456746933, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1218559174552764785, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149774724923880044, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1218559174552764786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149774724923880044, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=5218, endPage=5228, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149774728811999886, articleId=1149774728350626440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Aviation Industry Supply Chain Network Design and Inventory Control Based on Robust Optimization under Supply and Demand Uncertainty, columnId=1156262731079607234, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Aeronautics and Astronautics, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to ensure the regular and punctual operation of civil aviation transportation, the efficient aviation spare parts supply is the fundamental basis. However, the stochastic replenishment lead time and demand aggregates the uncertainty of spare parts supply. An original equipment manufacturer-orientated aviation industry supply chain location-inventory problem under an uncertain environment was investigated. A two-stage stochastic optimization model, including facility location, inventory control, production decisions, etc., was constructed to maximize the supply chain's profit. A novel robust optimization approach was proposed for a resilient supply chain network design under an uncertain environment. The results show that original equipment manufacturer facilities are more likely to establish double-sourcing and multiple-sourcing strategies with the upstream tier suppliers as the supply lead time and demand uncertainty increase and the on-hand inventory and average ordering quantity of tier suppliers increase accordingly. In addition, high uncertainty in spare parts supply and demand leads to declining profits in the aviation industry supply chain, which can be relieved by robust and resilient supply chain design and efficient inventory control. It is concluded that the optimal strategic and tactical decisions of the aviation industry supply chain in the context of supply and demand uncertainty provide an effective solution for the robust and efficient operations of the global aviation industry supply chain.

, correspAuthors=Hao-tong ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Min-ke WANG, Hao-tong ZHANG, Bei-bei YE, Pei-wen ZHANG), CN=ArticleExt(id=1149774754690855431, articleId=1149774728350626440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=供需不确定性下基于鲁棒优化的航材生产供应链网络设计与库存控制, columnId=1156262731373208516, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=论文·航空、航天, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为保证民航运输的正常运行和正点营运,高效的航材供应是基础,而随机的订货提前期和需求加剧航材供应的不确定性。在不确定环境下,研究以原始设备生产商为核心的航材供应链选址-库存问题。构建包括设施选址、库存控制和生产决策等两阶段随机优化模型,最大化航材供应链利润。提出一种新颖的鲁棒优化算法,在不确定环境下得出稳健的航材供应链网络优化方案。结果表明:随着供需不确定性的增加,原始设备生产商更有可能与上游供应商进行双源采购和多源采购,而现有库存和平均订购数量随之上升。此外,供需不确定性高导致航材生产供应链网络利润下降,可通过具鲁棒性和韧性的供应链设计和高效的库存控制缓解利润的下降。在供需不确定性背景下航材供应链的最优战略战术决策,为全球航空工业供应链稳健高效运作提供了有效的解决方案。

, correspAuthors=张昊彤, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
* 张昊彤(1999—),女,汉族,内蒙古赤峰人,硕士研究生。研究方向:物流系统优化、供应链管理。E-mail:
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王旻轲(1986—),男,汉族,四川成都人,博士,讲师。研究方向:系统工程与决策科学、物流系统优化。E-mail:

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王旻轲(1986—),男,汉族,四川成都人,博士,讲师。研究方向:系统工程与决策科学、物流系统优化。E-mail:

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王旻轲(1986—),男,汉族,四川成都人,博士,讲师。研究方向:系统工程与决策科学、物流系统优化。E-mail:

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companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=4 中国民用航空飞行学院经济与管理学院, 广汉 618307)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1179836964770558731, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Aviation spare parts supply chain network structure (For example aircraft engines), figureFileSmall=cfFMOXsvYwuxGJGkHvFsYg==, figureFileBig=QZRMCnsjVXyhoe6naJIwDQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836964833473292, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图1, caption=航材供应链网络结构(以飞机发动机为例), figureFileSmall=cfFMOXsvYwuxGJGkHvFsYg==, figureFileBig=QZRMCnsjVXyhoe6naJIwDQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836964938330893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Expected profit of aviation spare parts production supply chain network design under robustness preference, figureFileSmall=nPuikz7YN+NwIIMpkhYIzQ==, figureFileBig=FmmFnRB2PEltXIGu1Zr5FQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965005439758, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图2, caption=鲁棒性偏好下航材生产供应链期望利润, figureFileSmall=nPuikz7YN+NwIIMpkhYIzQ==, figureFileBig=FmmFnRB2PEltXIGu1Zr5FQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965101908751, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Variance of aviation spare parts production supply chain network design under robustness preference, figureFileSmall=LQMaaCZzH4iW20e8YizsHw==, figureFileBig=GP2v15dxCfq3p1EwOUPpTQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965185794832, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图3, caption=鲁棒性偏好下航材生产供应链利润的方差, figureFileSmall=LQMaaCZzH4iW20e8YizsHw==, figureFileBig=GP2v15dxCfq3p1EwOUPpTQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965236126481, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Aviation spare parts production supply chain network design under robustness preference, figureFileSmall=eU8x/eNUWVUG7wX6aD6sJg==, figureFileBig=SSZRjCcnxv+uJ8fl6TjRnQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965290652434, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图4, caption=鲁棒性偏好下的航材生产供应链网络设计, figureFileSmall=eU8x/eNUWVUG7wX6aD6sJg==, figureFileBig=SSZRjCcnxv+uJ8fl6TjRnQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965353566995, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Aviation spare parts production supply chain profits under uncertain lead time, figureFileSmall=ioqyxNecrRaalFVNUSMVyw==, figureFileBig=KUTzDBkm9PpIWn/pTsU4mg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965408092948, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图5, caption=订货提前期不确定下航材生产供应链利润, figureFileSmall=ioqyxNecrRaalFVNUSMVyw==, figureFileBig=KUTzDBkm9PpIWn/pTsU4mg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965479396117, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=Aviation spare parts production supply chain planning decisions under uncertain demand and lead time, figureFileSmall=t35GECal815VNWfIZ4Ixwg==, figureFileBig=TJ5V30dnJEDaLKgU1if65A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965538116374, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图6, caption=供需不确定性下的航材生产供应链库存控制, figureFileSmall=t35GECal815VNWfIZ4Ixwg==, figureFileBig=TJ5V30dnJEDaLKgU1if65A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965605225239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Fig.7, caption=Supply decisions of upstream and downstream suppliers under lead time uncertainty, figureFileSmall=jUcZzTnVQIcQh0xrE9MbJw==, figureFileBig=ziLKcFWsk1O+4jZx7jAxdw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965672334104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=图7, caption=订货提前期不确定性下的上下游供应商的供应决策, figureFileSmall=jUcZzTnVQIcQh0xrE9MbJw==, figureFileBig=ziLKcFWsk1O+4jZx7jAxdw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1179836965743637273, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Model set and decision variables

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
符号 含义
P 模块p集合,pP
H 所有航材供应商集合,iH
Hp 航材模块p供应商集合,iHp
Hp' 后续航材模块p'供应商集合,jHp'
H p ^ 最终航材 p ^供应商(OEM装配厂)集合,i H p ^
K 最终航材需求点k集合,kK
T 库存计划期t集合,tT
Ω 需求情景ξd和订货提前期情景ξl复合情景ξ={ξd,ξl}的集合,ξΩ
Wi 开设航材装配厂i或选取航材供应商i取1,否则取0
Yij 航材上游供应商i与下游供应商j建立供货关系取1,否则取0
Vik 航材装配厂i与需求点k建立供货分配关系取1,否则取0
Oipt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材下游供应商i向生产原材料模块p的上游供应商下订单取1,否则取0
zit(ξ) 情景ξt期航材供应商i的生产量
xijt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材上游供应商i向下游供应商j的供货量
I i t F i n i s h(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i的现有库存
I i p t R a w +(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i原材料模块p的现有库存
I - i p t R a w(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i原材料模块p的库存水平
LSip 航材供应商i原材料模块p的再订购点
USip 航材供应商i原材料模块p的最高库存
Qijt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材下游供应商j向上游供应商i订购原材料的数量
Pikt(ξ) 情景ξt期OEMi向需求点k的供货量
Wkt(ξ) 情景ξt期OEM满足需求点k的比例
), ArticleFig(id=1179836965819134746, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

模型集合与决策变量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
符号 含义
P 模块p集合,pP
H 所有航材供应商集合,iH
Hp 航材模块p供应商集合,iHp
Hp' 后续航材模块p'供应商集合,jHp'
H p ^ 最终航材 p ^供应商(OEM装配厂)集合,i H p ^
K 最终航材需求点k集合,kK
T 库存计划期t集合,tT
Ω 需求情景ξd和订货提前期情景ξl复合情景ξ={ξd,ξl}的集合,ξΩ
Wi 开设航材装配厂i或选取航材供应商i取1,否则取0
Yij 航材上游供应商i与下游供应商j建立供货关系取1,否则取0
Vik 航材装配厂i与需求点k建立供货分配关系取1,否则取0
Oipt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材下游供应商i向生产原材料模块p的上游供应商下订单取1,否则取0
zit(ξ) 情景ξt期航材供应商i的生产量
xijt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材上游供应商i向下游供应商j的供货量
I i t F i n i s h(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i的现有库存
I i p t R a w +(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i原材料模块p的现有库存
I - i p t R a w(ξ) 情景ξt期末航材供应商i原材料模块p的库存水平
LSip 航材供应商i原材料模块p的再订购点
USip 航材供应商i原材料模块p的最高库存
Qijt(ξ) 情景ξt期航材下游供应商j向上游供应商i订购原材料的数量
Pikt(ξ) 情景ξt期OEMi向需求点k的供货量
Wkt(ξ) 情景ξt期OEM满足需求点k的比例
), ArticleFig(id=1179836965890437915, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Aviation spare parts supply chain network scale

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
案例 航材供应商数量 OEM装配厂数量 需求区数量
P1 25 3 10
P2 50 5 16
P3 110 7 22
), ArticleFig(id=1179836965949158172, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

航材供应链网络规模

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
案例 航材供应商数量 OEM装配厂数量 需求区数量
P1 25 3 10
P2 50 5 16
P3 110 7 22
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966028849949, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Basic parameters of aviation spare parts supply chain

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数 含义 取值范围/€
gi 开设OEM装配厂i相关的固定成本 [1 000 000, 2 000 000]
li 各层级航材供应商i被选入供应链并建立合作关系的固定成本 [10 000, 20 000]
fij OEM装配厂i与存在直接供货关系的航材供应商建立关系的固定成本 [5 000, 20 000]
δi 单位零组件采购价格 [6 300 000, 10 000 000]
Ui OEM装配厂i每单位产品的装配成本 [20, 30]
αjk OEM装配厂j到需求点k每单位距离运输成本 [10, 25]
λ 每期每单位零组件的库存持有成本 [5, 20]
Dkt t期需求点k的需求 [80, 200]
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966116930334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

航材供应链基本参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数 含义 取值范围/€
gi 开设OEM装配厂i相关的固定成本 [1 000 000, 2 000 000]
li 各层级航材供应商i被选入供应链并建立合作关系的固定成本 [10 000, 20 000]
fij OEM装配厂i与存在直接供货关系的航材供应商建立关系的固定成本 [5 000, 20 000]
δi 单位零组件采购价格 [6 300 000, 10 000 000]
Ui OEM装配厂i每单位产品的装配成本 [20, 30]
αjk OEM装配厂j到需求点k每单位距离运输成本 [10, 25]
λ 每期每单位零组件的库存持有成本 [5, 20]
Dkt t期需求点k的需求 [80, 200]
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966175650591, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Probability distribution parameters of each demand type

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
需求类型 分布参数
随机需求(DT1) μk1=μk2=…=μkt∈[180,220];
σktkt=1
低非平稳随机需求(DT2) μk1,μk2,…,μkt∈[180,220];σktkt=2
高非平稳随机需求(DT3) μk1,μk2,…,μkt∈[160,240];σktkt=3
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966234370848, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

各需求类型的概率分布参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
需求类型 分布参数
随机需求(DT1) μk1=μk2=…=μkt∈[180,220];
σktkt=1
低非平稳随机需求(DT2) μk1,μk2,…,μkt∈[180,220];σktkt=2
高非平稳随机需求(DT3) μk1,μk2,…,μkt∈[160,240];σktkt=3
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966288896801, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Parameters related to lead time

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
提前期类型 均值μij 标准差σij
确定性提前期(D-LT) μij=3 σij=0
低不确定性提前期(LU-LT) μij=3 σij=2
高不确定性提前期(HU-LT) μij=3 σij=4
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966347617058, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

交货期相关参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
提前期类型 均值μij 标准差σij
确定性提前期(D-LT) μij=3 σij=0
低不确定性提前期(LU-LT) μij=3 σij=2
高不确定性提前期(HU-LT) μij=3 σij=4
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966406337315, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 6, caption=

Post-optimization computational results

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
ε/ω 后优化场景Ω'=100 后优化场景Ω'=300
期望利润/€ 方差/€2 WCL/% DR/% 期望利润/€ 方差/€2 WCL/% DR/%
0.1 744 174 982 319 749 135 0.087 93.2 744 172 749 319 580 986 0.085 92.6
0.3 728 035 425 177 573 876 0.076 94.0 727 996 783 177 622 853 0.078 93.8
0.4 715 054 668 113 673 569 0.069 94.5 715 253 035 113 624 506 0.070 94.2
0.7 705 348 021 72 152 488 0.058 95.1 705 345 707 71 914 820 0.059 95.2
1 689 170 253 57 576 398 0.049 95.8 689 168 276 57 498 213 0.048 95.6
1.5 672 992 047 28 548 316 0.035 96.0 672 986 255 28 431 775 0.038 96.3
2.3 663 285 992 8 792 337 0.015 97.5 663 284 591 8 906 489 0.016 97.3
4 647 107 924 6 281 710 0.006 97.6 647 107 795 6 282 608 0.008 97.8
9 637 400 621 1 477 693 0.002 98.8 637 415 169 1 486 244 0.003 98.6
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966477640484, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

后优化的计算结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
ε/ω 后优化场景Ω'=100 后优化场景Ω'=300
期望利润/€ 方差/€2 WCL/% DR/% 期望利润/€ 方差/€2 WCL/% DR/%
0.1 744 174 982 319 749 135 0.087 93.2 744 172 749 319 580 986 0.085 92.6
0.3 728 035 425 177 573 876 0.076 94.0 727 996 783 177 622 853 0.078 93.8
0.4 715 054 668 113 673 569 0.069 94.5 715 253 035 113 624 506 0.070 94.2
0.7 705 348 021 72 152 488 0.058 95.1 705 345 707 71 914 820 0.059 95.2
1 689 170 253 57 576 398 0.049 95.8 689 168 276 57 498 213 0.048 95.6
1.5 672 992 047 28 548 316 0.035 96.0 672 986 255 28 431 775 0.038 96.3
2.3 663 285 992 8 792 337 0.015 97.5 663 284 591 8 906 489 0.016 97.3
4 647 107 924 6 281 710 0.006 97.6 647 107 795 6 282 608 0.008 97.8
9 637 400 621 1 477 693 0.002 98.8 637 415 169 1 486 244 0.003 98.6
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966536360741, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=EN, label=Table 7, caption=

Aviation spare parts supplier allocation decisions under uncertain demand and lead time

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
案例 采购规则 DT1 DT2 DT3
D-LT LU-LT HU-LT D-LT LU-LT HU-LT D-LT LU-LT HU-LT
P1 单源采购 68.6% 0 0 75.0% 0 0 80.3% 10.0% 0
双源采购 31.4% 75.4% 40.0% 25.0% 70.1% 34.5% 19.7% 43.7% 33.3%
多源采购 0 24.6% 60.0% 4.0% 29.9% 65.5% 21.2% 46.3% 66.7%
供应商数量 (8,5,6) (10,7,6) (11,7,7) (8,5,6) (10,7,6) (11,7,7) (8,5,6) (10,7,7) (12,8,7)
P2 单源采购 85.5% 25.5% 0 83.7% 20.5% 0 81.6% 17.3% 0
双源采购 14.5% 24.5% 32.2% 16.3% 22.8% 27.6% 18.4% 30.1% 26.3%
多源采购 0 50.0% 67.8% 0 56.7% 72.4% 0 52.6% 73.7%
供应商数量 (18,10,8) (21,10,8) (23,11,9) (18,10,8) (21,11,8) (23,11,10) (20,10,8) (21,11,9) (25,13,11)
P3 单源采购 80.2% 18.5% 0 80.0% 20.7% 0 81.8% 27.3% 0
双源采购 19.8% 41.3% 45.5% 20.0% 39.5% 40.2% 16.7% 27.3% 25.0%
多源采购 0 40.2% 54.5% 0 39.8% 59.8% 0 45.4% 75.0%
供应商数量 (51,18,16) (55,18,16) (58,20,18) (51,18,16) (56,18,16) (58,20,18) (51,18,20) (56,19,16) (58,21,20)
), ArticleFig(id=1179836966611858214, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149774728350626440, language=CN, label=表7, caption=

需求和订货提前期不确定情况下航材供应商分配决策

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
案例 采购规则 DT1 DT2 DT3
D-LT LU-LT HU-LT D-LT LU-LT HU-LT D-LT LU-LT HU-LT
P1 单源采购 68.6% 0 0 75.0% 0 0 80.3% 10.0% 0
双源采购 31.4% 75.4% 40.0% 25.0% 70.1% 34.5% 19.7% 43.7% 33.3%
多源采购 0 24.6% 60.0% 4.0% 29.9% 65.5% 21.2% 46.3% 66.7%
供应商数量 (8,5,6) (10,7,6) (11,7,7) (8,5,6) (10,7,6) (11,7,7) (8,5,6) (10,7,7) (12,8,7)
P2 单源采购 85.5% 25.5% 0 83.7% 20.5% 0 81.6% 17.3% 0
双源采购 14.5% 24.5% 32.2% 16.3% 22.8% 27.6% 18.4% 30.1% 26.3%
多源采购 0 50.0% 67.8% 0 56.7% 72.4% 0 52.6% 73.7%
供应商数量 (18,10,8) (21,10,8) (23,11,9) (18,10,8) (21,11,8) (23,11,10) (20,10,8) (21,11,9) (25,13,11)
P3 单源采购 80.2% 18.5% 0 80.0% 20.7% 0 81.8% 27.3% 0
双源采购 19.8% 41.3% 45.5% 20.0% 39.5% 40.2% 16.7% 27.3% 25.0%
多源采购 0 40.2% 54.5% 0 39.8% 59.8% 0 45.4% 75.0%
供应商数量 (51,18,16) (55,18,16) (58,20,18) (51,18,16) (56,18,16) (58,20,18) (51,18,20) (56,19,16) (58,21,20)
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供需不确定性下基于鲁棒优化的航材生产供应链网络设计与库存控制
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王旻轲 1, 2 , 张昊彤 1, * , 叶蓓蓓 3 , 张培文 4
科学技术与工程 | 论文·航空、航天 2025,25(12): 5218-5228
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·航空、航天 2025, 25(12): 5218-5228
供需不确定性下基于鲁棒优化的航材生产供应链网络设计与库存控制
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王旻轲1, 2 , 张昊彤1, * , 叶蓓蓓3, 张培文4
作者信息
  • 1 中国民用航空飞行学院机场学院, 广汉 618307
  • 2 民航机场智慧运营与运维四川省工程研究中心, 广汉 618307
  • 3 西南财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 成都 611130
  • 4 中国民用航空飞行学院经济与管理学院, 广汉 618307
  • 王旻轲(1986—),男,汉族,四川成都人,博士,讲师。研究方向:系统工程与决策科学、物流系统优化。E-mail:

通讯作者:

* 张昊彤(1999—),女,汉族,内蒙古赤峰人,硕士研究生。研究方向:物流系统优化、供应链管理。E-mail:
Aviation Industry Supply Chain Network Design and Inventory Control Based on Robust Optimization under Supply and Demand Uncertainty
Min-ke WANG1, 2 , Hao-tong ZHANG1, * , Bei-bei YE3, Pei-wen ZHANG4
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Airport Engineering, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
  • 2 Sichuan Provincial Engineering Research Center of Smart Operation and Maintenance of Civil Aviation Airports, Guanghan 618307, China
  • 3 School of Management Science and engineering, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China
  • 4 School of Economics and Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
出版时间: 2025-04-28 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405724
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为保证民航运输的正常运行和正点营运,高效的航材供应是基础,而随机的订货提前期和需求加剧航材供应的不确定性。在不确定环境下,研究以原始设备生产商为核心的航材供应链选址-库存问题。构建包括设施选址、库存控制和生产决策等两阶段随机优化模型,最大化航材供应链利润。提出一种新颖的鲁棒优化算法,在不确定环境下得出稳健的航材供应链网络优化方案。结果表明:随着供需不确定性的增加,原始设备生产商更有可能与上游供应商进行双源采购和多源采购,而现有库存和平均订购数量随之上升。此外,供需不确定性高导致航材生产供应链网络利润下降,可通过具鲁棒性和韧性的供应链设计和高效的库存控制缓解利润的下降。在供需不确定性背景下航材供应链的最优战略战术决策,为全球航空工业供应链稳健高效运作提供了有效的解决方案。

航材生产供应链网络设计  /  选址-库存问题  /  鲁棒优化  /  供需不确定  /  两阶段随机优化模型

In order to ensure the regular and punctual operation of civil aviation transportation, the efficient aviation spare parts supply is the fundamental basis. However, the stochastic replenishment lead time and demand aggregates the uncertainty of spare parts supply. An original equipment manufacturer-orientated aviation industry supply chain location-inventory problem under an uncertain environment was investigated. A two-stage stochastic optimization model, including facility location, inventory control, production decisions, etc., was constructed to maximize the supply chain's profit. A novel robust optimization approach was proposed for a resilient supply chain network design under an uncertain environment. The results show that original equipment manufacturer facilities are more likely to establish double-sourcing and multiple-sourcing strategies with the upstream tier suppliers as the supply lead time and demand uncertainty increase and the on-hand inventory and average ordering quantity of tier suppliers increase accordingly. In addition, high uncertainty in spare parts supply and demand leads to declining profits in the aviation industry supply chain, which can be relieved by robust and resilient supply chain design and efficient inventory control. It is concluded that the optimal strategic and tactical decisions of the aviation industry supply chain in the context of supply and demand uncertainty provide an effective solution for the robust and efficient operations of the global aviation industry supply chain.

aviation industry supply chain network design  /  location-inventory problem  /  robust optimization  /  supply and demand uncertainty  /  two-stage stochastic optimization model
王旻轲, 张昊彤, 叶蓓蓓, 张培文. 供需不确定性下基于鲁棒优化的航材生产供应链网络设计与库存控制. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (12) : 5218 -5228 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405724
Min-ke WANG, Hao-tong ZHANG, Bei-bei YE, Pei-wen ZHANG. Aviation Industry Supply Chain Network Design and Inventory Control Based on Robust Optimization under Supply and Demand Uncertainty[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (12) : 5218 -5228 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405724
随着中国航空产业的不断发展,高效可靠的航材全球物流供应链网络和有效的库存控制是保障国产民机加大产能,走向全球的先决条件。由于发动机、起落架、飞机机身等制造涉及多模块、多个航空制造供应链层级和成百上千家企业,因此涉及关键航材生产的航空产业供应链优化问题更加复杂。面对当前动荡的全球形势,航材需求不确定和供应延迟成为全球航空工业供应链面临的挑战。在不确定环境下,各级航材供应商的战略选择、供应商的航材库存控制对于航空制造供应链中的核心企业至关重要,是航空航天供应链网络优化亟待研究的问题。
航材生产供应链具有以下特点:一是航材生产供应链涉及多种多样零部件,从金属合金、复合材料到电子元器件和液压系统,涉及领域广泛。供应链的管理需要协调不同层级的供应商和制造商,确保各类航材的及时供应;二是航材生产供应链通常包括三层级供应商;三级供应商提供基础材料和零部件,二级供应商整合生产次级系统和组件,一级供应商提供完整系统和主要部件,最终交付航空制造商进行组装和整机生产;稳健的层级结构确保了供应链的高效运作,同时各层级供应商的库存控制和协调也极为关键;三是航材生产供应链通常采用典型的主生产商-供应商生产模式。原始设备生产商(original equipment manufacturer,OEM)通过选择上游的战略航材供应商,构建和运营航材生产供应链。
供应链网络设计和库存控制决策决定了供应链的韧性和运营的有效性[1-3]。学者们针对航空工业供应链网络设计[4]、航材供应商选择[5],以及航材库存管理[6]等开展了大量研究。Hu等[4]研究了供应中断风险下的机身生产供应链网络设计问题和中断风险应对策略,但未考虑各层级供应商的库存控制策略。Schmelzle等[5]研究了航天工业供应链关系配置与绩效影响,结果表明,供应商关系独占性提高运营效率,减少与竞争对手共享关系提升库存和资产周转率,但未研究不确定订货或需求下的供应商配置。Gu等[6]构建了基于部件故障分布预测的非线性规划模型,通过最小化总成本得出航材最佳订购时间和订购量决策。战略层面的供应链网络设计与战术层面的库存控制联合优化已被证实可得出供应链优化全局最优解[2,7],但已有研究未涉及不确定环境下多层级、多模块的航空生产供应链网络选址-库存联合优化问题。
在供应链不确定因素中,订货提前期和需求的不确定最为常见,已有学者研究了不确定需求和不确定订货提前期对供应链网络设计和库存控制的影响。吴江等[7]研究了非平稳需求下多源补货、有容量约束及库存补充提前期的三级供应链分销网络选址-库存问题,构建供应链运营期望收益最大化的两阶段选址-库存随机优化模型,并设计了三步骤的分层级启发式算法。Diabat等[8]研究了不确定需求和订货提前期下的选址-库存问题,通过基于模拟退火和直接搜索方法的混合解决方案算法求解。Dehghani等[9]研究了需求和订货期不确定下的三级供应链分销网络选址-库存问题,采用基于马尔可夫过程和数学规划的混合方法求解构建的非线性整数规划模型。Fathi等[10]提出了随机需求和订货提前期下的选址-库存优化模型,并根据客户需求将客户订单分为普通订单和优先订单,通过混合遗传算法求解。供需不确定性会对供应链管理造成不利影响[11-13]。因此,在进行航材供应链网络设计和库存控制时,考虑供需不确定性对于构建稳健的供应链网络与灵活的供应链运营策略至关重要。
在不确定环境下许多学者采用鲁棒优化方法对供应链网络设计[1]、路径优化[14-15]、应急物流[16]等问题进行求解。Sun等[17]提出哑铃型多级供应链复杂网络的描述规则和进化算法,进而提出了一种从多个维度综合评价供应链复杂网络鲁棒性的方法。陈刚等[18]提出无人机集货中心选址问题,以生鲜农产品总加权新鲜度最大化为目标,引入不确定水平参数以构建鲁棒优化选址模型。考虑需求不确定性,许双松等[19]通过其构建的分布式鲁棒模型可以得到更具稳定性的枢纽选址结果,提高了高铁货运网络的抗风险能力以及远期运营效益。为解决灾后应急物资多式联运路径优化问题,针对各种运输方式的发班时刻限制,刘松等[20]建立不确定环境下带班期限制的应急物资多式联运鲁棒路径优化模型。因航材生产供应链涉及多层级、多模块供应商,航材生产供应链更容易受不确定因素的影响,更需要稳健的供应链网络设计和灵活的库存控制来实现可靠的航材供应。为此,通过构建不确定需求和订货提前期情景下的航材生产供应链鲁棒优化模型,设计鲁棒优化算法,求解具有鲁棒性偏好的航材供应链网络设计和库存控制决策,提升航材制造供应链的稳健性与有效性,为航材的快速有效供应提供决策支持。
以OEM为核心企业的航材生产供应链优化问题,航材供应链网络结构如图1所示。航材通过三层级供应商(如三级供应商、二级供应商和一级供应商)供货,即上游航材供应商的产成品交付于下游航材供应商完成整装,一级供应商再将高集成度的航材交付于OEM完成总装,并按需求将最终航材交付给客户(如航空公司、航材分销商等)。因航材生产供应链具有多层级性,各层级涉及相应的航材模块生产和供应,OEM作为核心企业为确保最终航材的总装和交付率,需确定可靠的战略合作供应商并建议上游航材供应商的库存水平。在不确定的需求和不确定的订货提前期下研究稳健、高效的多层级航材生产供应链选址-库存联合优化问题,以OEM企业航材销售利润为优化目标,优化不确定需求和订货提前期下的OEM装配厂选址、供应商战略合作关系,以及航材生产物料库存控制等决策。
基本假设如下。
(1)设定航材供应商和OEM通过定期审查库存控制策略(T, s, S)控制上游航材模块的采购和库存。即各级节点(如二级供应商、一级供应商、OEM)在每个周期T进行航材库存盘点,当库存小于等于最低库存水平s时,向上游战略合作供应商订货使库存水平达到最大库存水平S
(2)假设订货提前期不确定。即在不确定情景ξ下,从上游供应商i到下游供应商j的订货提前期记为Lij(ξ),订货量将在第t+Lij(ξ)+1期初到货。
(3)假设OEM面对需求点的需求服从正态分布,设需求点k在计划期t的需求均值为μkt,标准差为σkt。即在不确定情景ξ下,需求点kt期对最终航材的需求为随机变量Dkt(ξ),服从均值为μkt,标准差为σkt的正态分布,记为Dkt(ξ)~Ν(μkt, σ k t 2)。
(4)假设参数βip表示航材供应商i生产一单位
模块所需原材料模块p的数量。航材生产供应链是由原材料生产为零组件,最终装配成子系统、单元件的过程,是航材供应商生产一单位模块所需原材料递减的过程[21-24]
模型集合与决策变量如表1所示。
根据问题设定,构建航材生产供应链选址-库存两阶段随机优化模型。其中,供应链网络设计(如OEM装配厂开设、战略供应商选择、供货分配决策)为第一阶段决策变量;生产装配、库存控制,以及供货量等决策根据需求和订货提前期情景而制定,为第二阶段决策变量。优化模型的目标函数为最大化供应链利润,即航材销售收益减去航材物料采购成本、装配成本、装配厂到需求点的航材运输成本、物料库存成本、缺货成本,以及开设OEM装配厂固定成本、各级航材战略供应商选择固定成本、OEM装配厂与航材供应商供货关系建立固定成本,如式(1)所示。
$\begin{aligned} \operatorname{Max} R= & \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi)\left\{\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} \sum_{k \in K} \sum_{t \in T} \rho P_{i k t}(\xi)-\right. \\ & \sum_{i \in H_{p}} \sum_{j \in H_{\hat{p}}} \sum_{t \in T} \delta_{i} x_{i j t}(\xi)-\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} \sum_{t \in T} U_{i} z_{i t}(\xi)- \\ & \sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} \sum_{k \in K} \sum_{t \in T} \alpha_{j k} m_{j k} P_{i k t}(\xi)- \\ & \sum_{i \in H_{p}} \sum_{p \in P \mid} \sum_{p \rightarrow p^{\prime}} \sum_{t \in T} \lambda I_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}+}(\xi)- \\ & \left.\sum_{k \in K} \sum_{t \in T} \gamma D_{k t}\left[1-W_{k t}(\xi)\right]\right\}- \\ & \left(\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} g_{i} W_{i}+\sum_{i \in H_{p}} \sum_{p \in P \backslash \hat{p}} l_{i} W_{i}+\sum_{i \in H_{p}} \sum_{j \in H_{\hat{p}}} f_{i j} Y_{i j}\right) \end{aligned}$
式(1)中:ρ为单位产品售价;δi为单位零组件采购价格;Ui为OEM装配厂i每单位产品的装配成本;αjk为OEM装配厂j到需求点k每单位距离运输成本;mjk为OEM装配厂j与需求点k之间的运输距离;λ为每期每单位零组件的库存持有成本;γ为未满足需求的单位产品惩罚成本;Dktt期需求点k的需求;gi为开设OEM装配厂i相关的固定成本;li为各层级航材供应商i被选入供应链并建立合作关系的固定成本;fij为OEM装配厂i与存在直接供货关系的航材供应商建立关系的固定成本。
模型约束条件如下。
(1)航材装配与供应商层级约束为
$\sum_{i \in H_{p}} W_{i} \geqslant 1, \quad \forall p \in P$
$Y_{i j} \leqslant W_{i} R_{p p^{\prime}}, \quad \forall i \in H_{p} ; j \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} $
$Y_{i j} \leqslant W_{j} R_{p p^{\prime}}, \quad \forall i \in H_{p} ; j \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} $
$\sum_{j \in H_{p^{\prime}}} Y_{i j} \geqslant W_{i} R_{p p^{\prime}}, \quad \forall i \in H_{p} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime}$
$\sum_{i \in H_{p}} Y_{i j} \geqslant W_{j} R_{p p^{\prime}}, \quad \forall j \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime}$
$V_{i k} \leqslant W_{i}, \quad \forall i \in H_{\hat{p}} ; k \in K$
式(2)确定每个航材模块至少有一个供应商,其中模型参数Rpp'表示模块集成顺序,如果模块p'是模块p后续模块(pp'),即后续模块p'集成模块p,那么Rpp'=1,否则Rpp'=0。式(3)确保只有被OEM选进航材供应链网络的供应商i才可与生产后续模块p'的航材供应商j建立战略合作伙伴关系。式(4)确保只有被OEM选进航材供应链网络的供应商j才可与生产先前模块p的航材供应商i建立战略合作伙伴关系。式(5)首先确定先前与后续模块的顺序,航材供应商i生产先前模块p可以与航材生产供应链中众多生产后续模块p'的供应商j建立供货关系,同理式(6)。式(7)表示需求点k仅分配给开设的OEM装配厂。
(2)航材生产物料(上游航材)库存守恒约束为
$\begin{array}{c} I_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}^{+}}(\xi)=I_{i p, t-1}^{\mathrm{Raw}^{+}}(\xi)-\beta_{i p} z_{i t}(\xi)+\sum_{j \in H_{p}} Q_{j i, t-\left[L_{i j}(\xi)+1\right]}(\xi) \\ \forall i \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array} $
$\begin{aligned} \bar{I}_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi) & =I_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi)+\sum_{j \in H_{p} l} \sum_{t=t L_{i j}(\xi)}^{t-1} Q_{j l l}(\xi) \\ \forall i & \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \longrightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{aligned} $
$\begin{array}{l} \sum_{i \in H_{p}} x_{i j t}(\xi)=\sum_{i \in H_{p}} Q_{i j, t-\left[L_{i j}(\phi)+1\right]}(\xi) \\ \quad \forall j \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
式(8)是生产物料的现有库存守恒约束,即本期期末现有库存等于上期期末现有库存减去本期生产消耗量(或装配消耗量)再加上本期期初到货量。式(9)是库存水平守恒约束,即期末库存水平为本期期末现有库存加上在途库存。式(10)本期零组件的交付数量等于订货提前期的订购量。
(3)航材生产物料(上游航材)库存控制约束为
$\begin{array}{l} \bar{I}_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi)-M\left[1-O_{i p t}(\xi)\right] \leqslant \mathrm{LS}_{i p}-\varepsilon, \\ \forall i \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
$\begin{aligned} \bar{I}_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi) & -M O_{i p t}(\xi) \geqslant \mathrm{LS}_{i p}-\varepsilon \\ \forall i & \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{aligned}$
$\begin{array}{l} \sum_{j \in H_{p}} Q_{j i t}(\xi)+M\left[1-O_{i p t}(\xi)\right] \geqslant \mathrm{US}_{i p}-\bar{I}_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi), \\ \forall i \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l} \sum_{j \in H_{p}} Q_{j i t}(\xi) \leqslant \mathrm{US}_{i p}-\bar{I}_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}}(\xi) \\ \quad \forall i \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
根据库存补货策略(T, s, S),式(11)、式(12)表明,只要库存水平略低于再订购点LSip,就会触发补货订单。而通过该次补货,库存水平将达到最高水平USip。式(13)、式(14)表明,当且仅当Oipt(ξ)=1时,订购数量为正,订购数量将库存水平增加至最高水平USip
(4)各级供应商航材产品库存守恒约束为
$\begin{aligned} I_{i t}^{\text {Finish }}(\xi) & =I_{i, t-1}^{\text {Finish }}(\xi)+z_{i t}(\xi)-\sum_{j \in H_{p^{\prime}}} x_{i j t}(\xi) \\ \forall i & \in H_{p} ; p, p^{\prime} \in P \backslash \hat{p} \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{aligned}$
$\begin{aligned} I_{i t}^{\text {Finish }}(\xi) & =I_{i, t-1}^{\text {Finish }}(\xi)+z_{i t}(\xi)-\sum_{k \in K} p_{i k t}(\xi) \\ \forall i & \in H_{\hat{p}} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{aligned}$
式(15)、式(16)是各层级航材产品的现有库存守恒约束,即本期期末现有库存等于上期期末现有库存加上本期生产量(装配量)再减去本期向下游供应商(客户)的供货量。
(5)最终航材产品客户满足约束为
$\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} z_{i t}(\xi)=\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} \sum_{k \in K} P_{i k t}(\xi), \quad \forall t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega$
$D_{k t}(\xi) w_{k t}(\xi)=\sum_{i \in H_{\hat{p}}} P_{i k t}(\xi), \quad k \in K ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega$
$W_{k t}(\xi) \leqslant 1, \quad \forall i \in H_{\hat{p}} ; t \in T, \xi \in \Omega$
式(17)、式(18)表明,OEM装配厂的装配量与需求点k的需求及需求完成率有关。式(19)表示所有需求点订单的完成率不超过100%。
(6)产能、运输能力约束约束为
$z_{i t}(\xi) \leqslant \varphi_{i} W_{i}, \quad \forall i \in H_{p} ; p \in P ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega$
$\begin{array}{r} x_{i j t}(\xi) \leqslant \psi_{i j} Y_{i j}, \quad \forall i \in H_{p} ; j \in H_{p^{\prime}} ; \\ p, p^{\prime} \in P \mid p \rightarrow p^{\prime} ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
$P_{i k t}(\xi) \leqslant \Psi_{i k} V_{i k}, \quad \forall i \in H_{\hat{p}} ; k \in K ; t \in T ; \xi \in \Omega$
式中:φi为航材供应商的最大产能;ψij为航材供应商之间的最大运输量;Ψik为OEM与客户之间的最大运输量。
(7)决策变量取值约束为
$\begin{array}{c} z_{i t}(\xi), x_{i j t}(\xi), I_{i t}^{\text {Finish }}(\xi), I_{i p t}^{\mathrm{Raw}^{+}}(\xi), \bar{I}_{i p t}^{\text {Raw }}(\xi), \mathrm{LS}_{i p}, \\ \mathrm{US}_{i p}, Q_{i j t}(\xi), P_{i k t}(\xi), w_{k t}(\xi) \geqslant 0 \\ i, j \in H, p \in P, k \in K, t \in T, \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l} W_{i}, Y_{i j}, V_{i k}, O_{i p t}(\xi) \in\{0,1\}, \\ \quad i, j \in H, p \in P, k \in K, t \in T, \xi \in \Omega \end{array}$
式(23)表明模型中第二阶段的非负连续决策变量,式(24)表明模型中第二阶段的二元变量变量。
由于航材生产供应链的多模块、多层级特点,在供需不确定背景下,某环节航材生产物料的缺乏容易导致整个航材生产供应链的中断和最终航材的延期交付。鲁棒优化可得出不确定情景下具有鲁棒性的优化解,在不确定环境下的优化问题上有广泛应用[14-16]。将两阶段随机优化模型转化为基于情景的鲁棒优化模型,并通过鲁棒优化算法得出不确定需求和订货提前期情景下具有鲁棒性的航材生产供应链网络设计。采用Ratanakuakangwa等[21]的鲁棒优化构建方式,构建基于场景的鲁棒优化目标函数为
$\begin{aligned} R^{\mathrm{ScRo}}= & \max \left\{\omega \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi) Z(\xi)-\varepsilon \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi)\left[Z^{*}(\xi)-\right.\right. \\ & \left.\left.\sum_{\xi^{\prime} \in \Omega} p\left(\xi^{\prime}\right) Z\left(\xi^{\prime}\right)\right]^{2}\right\} \end{aligned}$
在鲁棒优化目标函数中,第一项为ω加权的不确定情景下的期望利润,第二项为ε加权的各情景下最优利润Z*(ξ)的方差,目标函数为最大化加权后的期望利润和方差的差值,通过控制权重比值ε/ω,可得出平衡利润和扰动的供应链网络设计。因式(25)中存在二次项,根据Yu等[22]可将式(25)改写为
$\begin{aligned} R^{\mathrm{ScRo}}= & \max \left[\omega \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi) Z(\xi)-\varepsilon \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi) \mid Z^{*}(\xi)-\right. \\ & \left.\sum_{\xi^{\prime} \in \Omega} p\left(\xi^{\prime}\right) Z\left(\xi^{\prime}\right) \mid\right] \end{aligned}$
为了将式(26)线性化,引入非负松弛变量Θ(ξ)和式(28),式(26)变换为
$\begin{aligned} R^{\mathrm{ScRo}}= & \max \left\{\omega \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi) Z(\xi)-\varepsilon \sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi)[Z(\xi)-\right. \\ & \left.\left.\sum_{\xi^{\prime} \in \Omega} p\left(\xi^{\prime}\right) Z\left(\xi^{\prime}\right)+2 \Theta(\xi)\right]\right\} \end{aligned}$
$\text { s.t. } Z(\xi)-\sum_{\xi \in \Omega} p(\xi) Z(\xi)+\Theta(\xi) \geqslant 0, \quad \forall \xi \in \Omega$
$\Theta(\xi) \geqslant 0, \quad \forall \xi \in \Omega$
在需求和订货提前期情景样本Ω下,通过控制ε/ω比值,可得出不同鲁棒性偏好下的航材生产供应链网络设计解集。在后优化阶段中,本研究将解集中的各供应链网络设计决策固定到优化模型中,并在更大的情景样本Ω'(如Ω'Ω)中求解该模型,通过期望利润、方差、最差情景损失,以及最终航材交付率,分析各航材供应链网络设计的鲁棒性和有效性,从而确定平衡鲁棒性和有效性的航材供应链网络设计。鲁棒优化算法流程如算法1所示。
算法1
1: 鲁棒优化阶段
2: 通过蒙特卡洛模拟生成不确定情景集Ω
3: for ξΩ do
4: 求解情景ξ下确定性的优化模型[式(1)~式(24)],得出最优目标值Z*(ξ)
5: for ε/ω do
6: 求解ε/ω偏好下的鲁棒优化模型[式(27) s.t. 式(2)~式(24)和式(28)、式(29)]
7: 将供应链设计方案存储在解集Χ
8: 后优化阶段
9: 通过蒙特卡洛模拟生成更大的情景集Ω'
10: for ε/ω do
11: 将ε/ω偏好下的航材供应链网络设计代入式(1)~式(24),并在情景集Ω'下求解
12: for ξΩ' do
13: 求解情景ξ下确定性的优化模型[式(1)~式(24)],得出最优目标值Z*(ξ)
14: 计算航材供应链设计方案的评价指标:期望利润、方差、最差情景损失比例[式(30)]及最终航材交付率[式(31)]
除期望利润和方差外,通过式(30)最差情景损失比例(worst-case loss,WCL)[23]和式(31)最终航材交付率(delivery rate,DR)在后优化阶段评估最优供应链网络设计。
WCL= m a x ξ Ω ' Z * ( ξ ) - Z ( ξ ) Z * ( ξ )×100%
式(30)中:Z(ξ)为在情景ξΩ'下固定供应链网络设计后求出的目标值;Z*(ξ)为各情景ξ下确定性的优化模型得出的最优目标函数值。
DR= Ω , H p ^ , K , T P i k t ( ξ ) Ω , K , T D k t ( ξ )×100%
式(31)分子表示情景ξt期OEMi向需求点k的供应最终航材的数量,分母表示情景ξt期需求点k向OEMi订购最终航材的数量。
选取某发动机主生产商为研究对象,考虑3个不同规模的航材生产供应链网络,如表2所示。通过对该航材生产供应链企业的资料收集,整理得到模型相关参数取值如表3所示。
假设客户kK在每周期tT的需求服从正态分布,考虑3种航材需求类型(随机需求、低非平稳随机需求、高非平稳随机需求),分布参数如表4所示。假设航材装配物料的订货提前期不确定,设定3种不确定程度的订货提前期(确定提前期、低不确定、高不确定),如表5所示。
通过Python编程调用Gurobi优化器来求解鲁棒优化,优化差距参数MIPGap设为0.001。各数值试验在2.3 GHz双核Intel Core i5,内存为8 GB的笔记本上进行测试。
在鲁棒优化中,εω的比例反映航材生产供应链设计的鲁棒性偏好。设置从最小鲁棒性偏好ε/ω=0.1到最强鲁棒性偏好ε/ω=9的9个鲁棒性偏好,通过P3问题验证不同鲁棒性偏好下的航材生产供应链网络设计与其鲁棒性。如图2图3所示,随着鲁棒性偏好增强,即ε/ω从0.1增加至9,航材生产供应链网络的期望利润下降,各情境下利润的方差变小,且方差的变化比例更大。例如,随着鲁棒性偏好从0.1增长到1,期望利润减少7.79%,而方差减小81.99%,供应链网络设计在不确定情境下的表现更为稳健。
在不同鲁棒性偏好下的航材生产供应链设施数量如图4所示。随着鲁棒性偏好的增加,航材生产供应链的供应商数量从69个增加至108个,开设的OEM装配厂数量从2个增加至5个,建立的分销渠道从113个增加至256个。即较强鲁棒性偏好使得更多的航材供应商进入航材生产供应链网络中,开设更多的OEM装配厂,且存在多源供货关系,从而增强航材供应的稳定性和生产供应链的鲁棒性,在不确定的需求和供货情境下提高最终航材交付率。
通过后优化阶段,分析各鲁棒性偏好下的供应链网络设计在更大的不确定场景集合(Ω'=100和Ω'=300)下的表现,如表6所示。可以看出,不同鲁棒性偏好下的航材供应链网络设计在后优化场景下得到不同的期望利润、方差、最坏情况损失比例和最终航材交付率,且航材供应链网络设计在样本量更大的后优化场景集(Ω'=300)下依然稳健。在较高鲁棒性偏好ε/ω的航材生产供应链网络的期望利润不及低鲁棒性偏好下的供应链网络,但具有更少的最坏情况损失和更小的方差。通过后优化阶段,可选取适当鲁棒性偏好ε/ω(如1、1.5、2.3)下的航材生产供应链网络设计从而实现收益和鲁棒性的平衡。后续数值试验通过选取鲁棒性偏好ε/ω=2.3进行求解。
进一步讨论需求和订货提前期不确定下的航材生产供应链网络设计和库存控制决策。表7列出不确定需求(如DT1、DT2、DT3)和不确定订货提前期(如D-LT、LU-LT、HU-LT)下的下游供应商各采购策略(如单源采购、双源采购、多源采购)占比,以及航材生产供应链中三级、二级、一级供应商的数量。例如,在P1问题规模下,面对DT1需求和D-LT订货提前期,下游供应商(如二级供应商、一级供应商、OEM供应商)向上游供应商(三级供应商、二级供应商、一级供应商)订货采用单源采购、双源采购和多源采购的平均百分比分别为68.6%、31.4%和0%。由表7可知,在任意需求类型下,随着订货提前期的不确定性增加(从D-LT至HU-LT),下游供
应商采用单源采购策略的比例下降,而双源、多源采购的比例相应增加;各层级航材供应商数量也随之增加。以P2为例,在DT2需求类型下,随着订货提前期从D-LT变为HU-LT,上游供应商采用单源采购的比例从83.7%下降到0,双源采购的比例从16.3%上升到27.6%,多源采购占比从0上升到72.4%;三级、二级、一级航材供应商数量分别从18增加至23、10增加至11、8增加至10。相较于不确定的订货提前期,采购策略对需求的不确定不敏感。例如,在P2算例中,以HU-LT为例,DT1、DT2和DT3下的多源采购比例几乎处于同一水平,分别为67.8%、72.4%和73.7%。研究表明,多源采购可以弥补订货提前期不确定和补货延迟对OEM装配厂造成的不便,从而提高航材生产供应链的韧性。在补货不确定性较高的情况下(LU-LT和HU-LT),下游航材供应商应采用双源采购和多源采购策略,有利于降低供应不确定和供应中断时OEM对某个供应商的依赖度。
以问题P3为例,图5为不同订货提前期下仅单源采购、允许双源采购,以及允许多源采购的航材生产供应链利润散点图。可以看出,在确定提前期(D-LT)下,3种采购策略得到的供应链利润基本分布在同一水平上,即单源采购可满足确定订货提前期下的航材生产供应链运营。但当订货提前期不确定时(如LU-LT和HU-LT),单源采购策略下的航材生产供应链网络利润明显不及允许双源采购和允许多源采购的航材生产供应链利润。在极端不确定的订货提前期下(HU-LT)仅能通过多源采购才能保证航材生产供应链的有效运营,维持较高的利润水平。结果表明,订货提前期不确定性较高时,仅使用单一采购规则不能保证航材生产供应链网络的利润,而多源采购结合战略库存和应急期权策略可以避免短时间内订单无法按时交付的情况,使航材生产供应链获得最稳定的利润。
在不同需求和订货提前期类型下的航材生产供应链各层级供应商的航材生产物料库存控制决策如图6所示。从图6(a)图6(b)可以看出,航材生产物料订货提前期和终端客户需求的不确定会影响航材生产供应链各层级供应商的平均库存,使得供应商保持较高的现有库存量。例如:在DT2需求类型下,订货提前期从D-LT变为HU-LT,第二层级、第一层级航材供应商及OEM装配厂原材料的平均现有库存量分别从121 183增加至146 347、96 352增加至99 136、46 361增加至65 231。即面对订货提前期的不确定,各层级航材供应商需提高各自航材生产物料的库存量,从而避免订货提前期不确定甚至供应中断时因缺少生产物料引发的航材生产延迟,以及最终航材无法生产的情况。对于核心企业OEM来说,当面对不确定环境时,需监控和管理航材生产供应链内各战略航材供应商的库存水平,确保最终航材可按时生产交付。
图7显示不同订货提前期对航材生产供应链网络的二级供应商和一级供应商平均订货量的影响。随着订货提前期从D-LT上升至HU-LT,各计划期内的平均订货量有所增加。例如,在2月航材生产供应链二级供应商和一级供应商的平均订货量分别从10 739增加至12 658、7 154增加至8 028。对比图7(a)图7(b)可知,二级供应商平均订货量高于图一级供应商平均订货量。因为上游航材供应商(如三级供应商)供应的产品是集成度较低的零组件,在装配过程中消耗量大,而下游航材供应商(如二级供应商)供应的航材是集成度更高的子系统,因此上游企业的平均订货量更大。数值试验可以看出,航材供应商在订货时应考虑订货提前期,在不确定的订货提前期下的订货量应适当增加,从而一定程度的提升库存水平来应对不确定订货提前期导致的供货延迟。
讨论具有全球化程度高、多层级、多并行模块就及递进性集成化的航材生产供应链网络设计及选址-库存优化问题。构建两阶段随机混合整数规划模型,针对随机优化问题中需求情景和订货提前期情景的不确定性,提出基于场景的鲁棒优化算法,得出航材生产供应链最优最稳健的优化方案,结合具体案例进行数值分析,得到以下结论。
(1)设置不同的鲁棒性偏好得到不同的航材供应链网络设计及经济绩效。最稳健的偏好会带来稳健的航材生产供应链设计,从而满足更多需求。
(2)较高鲁棒性偏好的航材生产供应链网络的期望利润不及低鲁棒性偏好下的供应链网络,但具有更少的最坏情况损失和更小的方差。通过后优化阶段,可选取适当鲁棒性偏好下的航材生产供应链网络设计,从而实现收益和鲁棒性的平衡。
(3)订货提前期不确定性较高时,仅使用单一采购规则不能保证航材生产供应链网络的利润,而使用多源采购策略可以将航材生产供应链利润获得最稳定的利润。
(4)不确定的需求和订货提前期会使各级航材供应商的库存水平一定程度的提升,从而导致库存成本增加,最终导致航材生产供应链整体利润降低。
在现有研究基础上可进一步拓展,随着国家节能减排战略的实施,低碳化已成为航材供应链企业绿色发展过程中一个不可忽视的因素,而航材制造供应链韧性与低碳是悖反关系,平衡经济绩效与环境问题有待研究。可以加入生产方式及车型选择,为航材制造业的节能减排和可持续发展提供更加细致的决策理论支持。
  • 四川省自然科学基金(ZXSB2023009)
  • 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(25CAFUC04040)
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2025年第25卷第12期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405724
  • 接收时间:2024-07-30
  • 首发时间:2025-07-09
  • 出版时间:2025-04-28
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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-30
  • 修回日期:2025-02-14
基金
四川省自然科学基金(ZXSB2023009)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(25CAFUC04040)
作者信息
    1 中国民用航空飞行学院机场学院, 广汉 618307
    2 民航机场智慧运营与运维四川省工程研究中心, 广汉 618307
    3 西南财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 成都 611130
    4 中国民用航空飞行学院经济与管理学院, 广汉 618307

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* 张昊彤(1999—),女,汉族,内蒙古赤峰人,硕士研究生。研究方向:物流系统优化、供应链管理。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
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Number of
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种数
Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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