Article(id=1149769462225744198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149769458706723113, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402603, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1712678400000, receivedDateStr=2024-04-10, revisedDate=1739376000000, revisedDateStr=2025-02-13, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752056001478, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1747497600000, pubDateStr=2025-05-18, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752056001478, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752056001478, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752056001478, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149769458706723113, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, year='2025', volume='25', issue='14', pageStart='5705', pageEnd='6154', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752056000638, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1768456798957, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1218559392753041779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149769458706723113, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1218559392753041780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, issueId=1149769458706723113, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=5983, endPage=5991, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149769462590648648, articleId=1149769462225744198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=EN, title=Method and Application of Pressure Drop Prediction for Fiber Filter Rods Based on Multiple Regression and Fluid Dynamics, columnId=1156262736095994848, journalTitle=Science Technology and Engineering, columnName=Papers·Civil, Handicraft and Living Services Industry, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Pressure drop plays an important effect on the performance of fiber filter-stick, and is determined by the materials and geometry structure. In order to develop a method to design and guide the production of the fiber filter, the multiple regression method uses the density of fiber tow, length, and circumference of the sticker as the argument to train the pressure drop model based on the production data. The fiber filter is modeled as multizone represented as the fiber tow and the forming paper. The flow dynamics in these zones are simulated based on the porous media model. The osmotic coefficients represent the pressure drop in the zone packed with the fiber tow. The simulation results show that the pressure drop is positively correlated with the length of the fiber rob, and the type of filter tow has a greater influence on the pressure drop than the circumference. For the design of the fiber filter, the regression model is first used to obtain the consumption of the fiber tow based on the design pressure drop. Then the simulation based on the porous media model is carried out to validate the prediction. If the error between the two methods is within 10%, this predicted fiber stick can be produced. By analyzing the production data and the prediction from models, it is concluded that the method proposed in this work is sufficient to direct the design and production.

, correspAuthors=Wen-ting LIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Chen-qiao LI, Wen-ting LIU, Zhi-yuan YAN, Wei-ping JIA, Ke HUANG, Bo WANG, Hong-yun HU), CN=ArticleExt(id=1149769506957996733, articleId=1149769462225744198, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, language=CN, title=基于多元线性回归与流体力学的纤维滤棒压降预测方法与应用, columnId=1156262736238601186, journalTitle=科学技术与工程, columnName=论文·轻工业、手工业、生活服务业, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=压降是纤维滤棒性能质量的重要指标,其与材料和几何结构密切相关,为建立用于纤维滤棒设计与生产验证的新方法,通过结合有监督学习方法,以丝束单旦/总旦、长度和圆周为自变量,引入多元回归方法建立滤棒压降的预测模型;对滤棒进行多区域协同建模,并基于多孔介质模型模拟气体滤棒内流动行为,获得适用于表征丝束规格的压降渗透系数。结果表明:压降与滤棒长度具有正相关的线性关系,且改变滤棒丝束类型对压降的影响大于改变圆周,证明滤棒压降受到多因素共同影响;基于多元线性回归模型,可以设计压降值为目标快速反推出滤棒长度、圆周及丝束类型的组合方式;基于数值模型对所预测滤棒参数组合进行模拟以验证生产参数的合理性,确定结合多元线性回归模型和数值模型的方法能够有效指导滤棒的设计和生产。, correspAuthors=刘文婷, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*刘文婷(1987—),女,汉族,湖北武汉人,博士,工程师。研究方向:包装材料。E-mail:
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李陈巧(1996—),女,汉族,湖北宜昌人,硕士,工程师。研究方向:滤棒材料。E-mail:

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李陈巧(1996—),女,汉族,湖北宜昌人,硕士,工程师。研究方向:滤棒材料。E-mail:

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Single well capacity prediction based on multiple linear regression and BP neural network[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2019, 19(29): 96-102., articleTitle=Single well capacity prediction based on multiple linear regression and BP neural network, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172984536506974628, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149769462225744198, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=208, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Zhao G, Ding W L, Tian J, journalName=Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhao G, Ding W L, Tian J. Spearman rank correlations analysis of the elemental, mineral concentrations, and mechanical parameters of the Lower Cambrian Niutitang shale: a case study in the Fenggang block, Northeast Guizhou Province, South China[J]. 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Classification and discrimination of surrounding Rock of tunnel based on SVM of K-fold cross validation[J]. 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Total amount of production data

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滤棒类型 数量
常规 51 873
中支 12 196
细支 12 855
), ArticleFig(id=1172984533050868096, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149769462225744198, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

生产数据量

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滤棒类型 数量
常规 51 873
中支 12 196
细支 12 855
), ArticleFig(id=1172984533134754177, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149769462225744198, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Statistics of production and prediction results

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类型 验证数据总数 残差绝对值
<10%数据量
占比/%
常规棒 10 102 9 478 93.82
中支棒 2 316 2 118 91.41
细支棒 2 379 2 184 91.8
), ArticleFig(id=1172984533222834562, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123166801305609, articleId=1149769462225744198, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

生产结果与预测结果统计

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类型 验证数据总数 残差绝对值
<10%数据量
占比/%
常规棒 10 102 9 478 93.82
中支棒 2 316 2 118 91.41
细支棒 2 379 2 184 91.8
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Types of filter rod and parameters for simulation

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编号 长度/mm 圆周/mm 成型纸透
气度/CU
丝束密度/
(kg·m-3)
A1 100 24.00 6 000 135
A2 120 24.00 12 000 135
A3 120 24.00 普纸 135
B1 100 19.90 6 000 142
C1 120 17.05 6 000 150
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模拟滤棒型号与参数

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编号 长度/mm 圆周/mm 成型纸透
气度/CU
丝束密度/
(kg·m-3)
A1 100 24.00 6 000 135
A2 120 24.00 12 000 135
A3 120 24.00 普纸 135
B1 100 19.90 6 000 142
C1 120 17.05 6 000 150
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Fiber bundle filling coefficients

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滤棒丝束 多孔渗透参数/m2
常规棒丝束渗透率 3.3×10-7
中支棒丝束渗透率 6.2×10-7
细支棒丝束渗透率 2.9×10-7
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丝束填充系数

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滤棒丝束 多孔渗透参数/m2
常规棒丝束渗透率 3.3×10-7
中支棒丝束渗透率 6.2×10-7
细支棒丝束渗透率 2.9×10-7
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基于多元线性回归与流体力学的纤维滤棒压降预测方法与应用
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李陈巧 1 , 刘文婷 1, * , 闫志远 2 , 贾伟萍 1 , 黄轲 1 , 王波 1 , 胡红云 3
科学技术与工程 | 论文·轻工业、手工业、生活服务业 2025,25(14): 5983-5991
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科学技术与工程 | 论文·轻工业、手工业、生活服务业 2025, 25(14): 5983-5991
基于多元线性回归与流体力学的纤维滤棒压降预测方法与应用
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李陈巧1 , 刘文婷1, * , 闫志远2, 贾伟萍1, 黄轲1, 王波1, 胡红云3
作者信息
  • 1. 湖北中烟有限责任公司, 武汉 430040
  • 2. 燕山大学车辆与能源学院, 秦皇岛 066104
  • 3. 华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院,武汉 430074
  • 李陈巧(1996—),女,汉族,湖北宜昌人,硕士,工程师。研究方向:滤棒材料。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*刘文婷(1987—),女,汉族,湖北武汉人,博士,工程师。研究方向:包装材料。E-mail:
Method and Application of Pressure Drop Prediction for Fiber Filter Rods Based on Multiple Regression and Fluid Dynamics
Chen-qiao LI1 , Wen-ting LIU1, * , Zhi-yuan YAN2, Wei-ping JIA1, Ke HUANG1, Bo WANG1, Hong-yun HU3
Affiliations
  • 1. China Tobacco Hubei Industries Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430040, China
  • 2. School of Vehicle and Energy, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066104, China
  • 3. School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
出版时间: 2025-05-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402603
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压降是纤维滤棒性能质量的重要指标,其与材料和几何结构密切相关,为建立用于纤维滤棒设计与生产验证的新方法,通过结合有监督学习方法,以丝束单旦/总旦、长度和圆周为自变量,引入多元回归方法建立滤棒压降的预测模型;对滤棒进行多区域协同建模,并基于多孔介质模型模拟气体滤棒内流动行为,获得适用于表征丝束规格的压降渗透系数。结果表明:压降与滤棒长度具有正相关的线性关系,且改变滤棒丝束类型对压降的影响大于改变圆周,证明滤棒压降受到多因素共同影响;基于多元线性回归模型,可以设计压降值为目标快速反推出滤棒长度、圆周及丝束类型的组合方式;基于数值模型对所预测滤棒参数组合进行模拟以验证生产参数的合理性,确定结合多元线性回归模型和数值模型的方法能够有效指导滤棒的设计和生产。
多元回归  /  流体力学  /  纤维滤棒  /  压降预测

Pressure drop plays an important effect on the performance of fiber filter-stick, and is determined by the materials and geometry structure. In order to develop a method to design and guide the production of the fiber filter, the multiple regression method uses the density of fiber tow, length, and circumference of the sticker as the argument to train the pressure drop model based on the production data. The fiber filter is modeled as multizone represented as the fiber tow and the forming paper. The flow dynamics in these zones are simulated based on the porous media model. The osmotic coefficients represent the pressure drop in the zone packed with the fiber tow. The simulation results show that the pressure drop is positively correlated with the length of the fiber rob, and the type of filter tow has a greater influence on the pressure drop than the circumference. For the design of the fiber filter, the regression model is first used to obtain the consumption of the fiber tow based on the design pressure drop. Then the simulation based on the porous media model is carried out to validate the prediction. If the error between the two methods is within 10%, this predicted fiber stick can be produced. By analyzing the production data and the prediction from models, it is concluded that the method proposed in this work is sufficient to direct the design and production.

multi regression  /  computational fluid dynamics  /  fiber stick  /  prediction of pressure drop
李陈巧, 刘文婷, 闫志远, 贾伟萍, 黄轲, 王波, 胡红云. 基于多元线性回归与流体力学的纤维滤棒压降预测方法与应用. 科学技术与工程, 2025 , 25 (14) : 5983 -5991 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402603
Chen-qiao LI, Wen-ting LIU, Zhi-yuan YAN, Wei-ping JIA, Ke HUANG, Bo WANG, Hong-yun HU. Method and Application of Pressure Drop Prediction for Fiber Filter Rods Based on Multiple Regression and Fluid Dynamics[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (14) : 5983 -5991 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402603
纤维滤棒是卷烟生产的重要原材料之一,烟气流过纤维滤棒的压降会影响烟气中颗粒物滤过效应和流量控制,合理设计和控制压降是滤棒质量控制的主要手段。影响滤棒压降的主要因素包括不同规格的丝束选型搭配、滤棒增塑剂的施加比例、成型纸透气度差异等[1]。Yang等[2]通过傅里叶红外光谱、结构方程等方式,从物理学角度对比分析了棉纤维素、芳纶纤维素等不同丝束材料在不同条件下形成的丝束孔隙率大小及影响因素,给出了较为合适的压降和孔隙率关系。Erxlebe等[3]通过调整控制喷嘴压降与大气压关系,在恒定空气循环条件下,提出对滤棒压降进行修正的方式。袁功道等[4]针对生产过程造成的滤棒内材料填充不稳定性,通过数据统计分析提出改进成型机加工参数来降低压降波动范围。盛培秀等[5]选取了7种细支滤棒,利用软件拟合生成了压降与丝束填充量、丝束属性、滤棒长度、滤棒圆周等变量的线性关系式,并且使用校正后的生产数据进行了回归模型拟合、残差验证、特性曲线绘制等操作,取得了较好的效果,但该研究工作仅对细支滤棒进行考虑,并未对常规和中支滤棒进行说明;王红素等[6]在卷烟吸阻数学模型的建立应用,认为滤棒生产参数之间可能存在交互作用,但实验没有考虑到不同自变量之间可能存在彼此互相影响的情况。
基于试验和大数据分析可以分析各因素对滤棒压降的影响,但对压降形成的机制解释不足,为此需要从理论层面理解滤棒内的压降机制。滤棒内填充丝束可看作典型的多孔介质结构,基于计算流体力学,研究人员对滤棒内流动行为开展研究。曾劲松等[7]建立了燃烧烟气在滤棒内的二维稳态层流模型,并采用粒子图像测速实验验证模型合理性,进而采用所建数学模型研究了烟丝透气度和抽吸压力对烟气流动和扩散的影响。
Cao等[8]在对纤维介质微观结构对黏滞阻力以及不同捕集机制下颗粒捕集过程压降的增长趋势分析中,基于欧拉-拉格朗日方法建立宏观尺度模型,研究流体流过纤维滤棒的压降变化。进一步,将滤棒作为烟支的组成部分,余其昌等[9]进行了通过计算流体力学构建数学模型,采用计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamic,CFD)模拟进行烟气CO与烟气速度以及不同卷烟纸情况下向外扩散情况的模拟分析。Song 等[10]基于多孔介质模拟分析成型纸透气度和打孔对滤棒压降的影响,表明不同气体流动方式对卷烟滤棒压降影响程度不同。
虽然大数据分析可建立滤棒压降与不同影响因素间的关系,但滤棒数据不足或缺失会影响基于数据驱动模型的预测精准程度;数值模拟能够量化滤棒结构与压降的关系,但无法进行快速预测。现将大数据分析与计算流体力学各自优势相结合,提出一种用于滤棒设计的新方法。
图1所示,首先基于现有滤棒生产数据,通过大数据分析构建多元线性回归模型进行压降预测;同时基于计算流体力学建立包含成型纸和丝束的多区域模型,模拟分析滤棒内的气体流动并分析压降形成机制,并对多元线性回归模型的压降预测进行验证;基于预测的滤棒参数进行生产并对模型预测结果做出验证。
原始数据来自材料厂,表1所示为按照滤棒圆周所细分的3类滤棒的数据量。对不同类型滤棒,按照其压降测量值的95%置信区间进行数据的清洗,将各批次生产数据中超出平均值上下两倍标准差范围的数据视为异常数据排除,保存尽可能多的数据的同时尽可能提高模型精确性和通用性。
多元线性回归是一种用于探索因变量与多个自变量之间的关系的数学统计方法,能够预测因变量如何受到一个或多个自变量的影响[11]。多元线性回归的模型表示为
Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+…+βpXp+ε
式(1)中:Y为因变量;X1X2、…、Xp为自变量;β1β2、…、βp分别为对应不同自变量的偏回归系数;β0为常量;ε为残差,用于检验模拟预测结果的准确性。
多元回归模型通常适用于自变量之间不存在明显的多重共线性情况[12]。多重共线性指自变量之间存在可以使用部分自变量和常数项构建线性函数对其他自变量进行表示的情况,因此在进行实际模型构建之前还需要进行自变量之间的相关性分析,排除多重共线性的影响。
常用的多元回归模型评估指标有拟合优度(coefficient of determination,R2)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)、均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)。拟合优度反映回归方程相对原始数据的拟合程度,公式为
R 2 = 1 - R S S T S S
式(2)中:RSS为残差平方和;TSS为整体平方和;R2指数越高,反映模型预测精准度越好,而在整体平方和基本不变的情况下,R2主要由RSS残差平方和决定。
R S S = i = 1 n ( y i - y ^ i ) 2
T S S = i = 1 n ( y i - y - ) 2
式中: y -为总体因变量的均值; y ^ i为每组自变量对应的预测因变量;yi对应自变量组所测量的因变量测量值。
滤棒内部填充丝束可看作是多孔介质,气体从填充丝束的空隙中流过滤棒[13]。采用不可压缩连续性方程和动量方程来模拟气流流动行为,即
u = 0
u u = v 2 u - 1 / ρ p - S p o r o u s
式中:u为气流速度;p为压力;ν为运动黏度;ρ为空气密度;Sporous为多孔介质源项。
由于多孔介质的存在,Sporous与丝束和成型纸本身的流动阻力有关,表达式为
S p o r o u s = v D u u + 0 . 5 C u u
式(7)中:Du为黏性阻力系数矩阵;C为惯性阻力系数矩阵[14]
滤棒内部的主要填充材料是纤维丝束,其所占体积分数为
α=M/(ρsπLD2/6)
式(8)中:M为丝束重量;ρs为丝束密度;Ld分别为纤维滤棒的长度和圆周。
图2(a)所示为滤棒多区域物理模型。滤棒包括内层丝束和外层成型纸,因此在建立丝束区域后,在外侧构建成型纸区域,其厚度取滤棒半径的1/20。成型纸区域用于模拟空气在不同通透性下向滤棒内部扩散的情况,丝束材料物性参数基于丝束特性曲线获得[15]。为模拟实际压降检测环境,遵循国标GBT22838.5—2009压降测试方法[16],在丝束与成型纸区外侧设置橡胶套管区,半径设置为滤棒半径的10倍。橡胶套管区介质设置为橡胶,与滤棒紧密贴合。进口采用压力进口,出口设置为恒流量出口,流量为17.5 mL/s。
图2(b)所示为内部丝束区和成型纸区的计算网格,滤棒区域选择常规网格密度,橡胶套管区域采用粗化网格密度。
自变量数据需要进行相关性验证,因为可能存在自变量之间互相强相关的情况,同时在预测模型中考虑存在强相关性的变量可能会出现模型显著性检验失去意义、预测功能失效、参数估计不合理等情况[17]
使用皮尔逊相关系数进行计算,公式为
P = c o v ( X , Y ) σ X σ Y
式(8)中:P为皮尔逊相关系数;cov(X,Y)为XY的协方差;σX和σY分别为XY的标准差。
图3为计算得到的参数相关性热力图,横纵坐标分别表示变量,横纵坐标相交的区块反应对应两个变量之间的相关性关系,相关性关系数字即为皮尔逊相关系数,范围为[-1,1],越接近1则正相关性越强,越接近-1则负相关性越强。
经过生产数据预处理后代入计算绘制,其中压降为因变量,重量、圆周、长度、成型纸透气度为自变量。
(1)不同自变量之间的相关性系数均小于0.8,其中重量与长度的相关性系数最大为0.78,因此可以认为自变量之间的相互关系对模型的整体预测不会产生较大影响[18]
(2)观察压降与其他自变量之间的相关系数,重量与长度与压降有较强的正相关关系。根据特性曲线分析,其他条件相同的情况下,重量越大,对应的压降数值越大,符合特性曲线情况。长度越长的情况下,其他条件不变,重量通常越高,因此长度与压降正相关。
按照丝束规格(单旦密度ρ为130、135、142、150 kg/m3)将生产测试数据分为4类,其中130 kg/m3和135 kg/m3均为常规棒。在进行训练集构建前,先对每种型号滤棒单独进行数据清洗。其中常规棒包含6种不同型号,以其中一种常规棒为例,数据量共6 715组,压降均值2 750.35,标准差±97.27,按照95%置信区间进行数据清洗后的数据量为6 541组,其均值2 748.41,标准差为±74.49。数据清洗操作清洗掉的异常值和离群点不超过原始数据量的5%,且在均值未出现明显偏差的情况下,标准差降低约25%,说明清洗后数据能够尽可能保证原始数据完整性,图4(a)图4(b)即为该种常规棒清洗前后的压降数据分布对比。清洗后的数据明显去除了偏离均值范围较大的异常值和离群点。
由于不同类型的生产数据集的数据量有一定差异,且同一类型滤棒数据集内部不同型号滤棒数据量差别较大,因此根据丝束类型和对应滤棒数量对生产数据按照权重调整,构建模型训练数据集。训练集和验证集数据量的选取以训练集:验证集=4∶1的原则进行数据集分类,对每种型号滤棒分别进行筛选。以经过数据筛选后的常规棒为例,6种常规棒筛选完成后数据量分别为6 541、4 555、8 105、13 389、5 156、12 530。将清洗后数据按照4∶1比例分为模型训练组和验证组。将原始数据按照0.05 mm为长度区间,划分为若干个长度区间,由于不同,对每个长度区间按照4∶1比例随机进行80%数据量的取值,最后将所有长度区间的随机取值数据统合,获得用于进行模型训练的数据集,剩余数据整合为用于模型验证的数据集。图5(a)图5(b)分别为筛选完成后的训练集数据和验证集数据。对两组数据集进行均值和标准差的计算,训练集数据均值2 724.32,标准差68.74,验证集均值2 724.10,标准差68.60,训练组数据与验证组数据分布形态、均值标准差呈现一致。
模型训练过程基于Python语言,运用LinearRegression模型构建多元线性回归拟合函数。使用双对数模型,对滤棒原始数据进行了对数化处理。对对数处理后的数据组,进行K折交叉验证。K折交叉验证能够有效地降低模型结果出现过拟合状态和欠拟合状态,如汪学青等[19]针对隧道施工期间围岩分级因样本数较少存在分类结果可靠性较低的问题,建立基于K折交叉验证的支持向量机判别模型,根据围岩勘测情况,将围岩分为4个等级,并作为输出变量;选取40组样本数据训练模型、10组样本数据测试模型,准确率达到90%。
按照2.1.2节中方法选取数据,获得常规棒、中支棒、细支棒混合的数据样本,其中常规棒40 408组、中支棒9 268组、细支棒9 524组。本文研究中设置K=5,即将所有数据随机混合平均分为5组,每次训练选取4组数据混合用于构建模型,剩余一组用于模型验证。在这一设置条件下,交叉验证得分最高。经过模型训练后,验证集获得的参数结果,R2拟合优度达到0.982,RMSE均方根误差值为0.025 3。按照上述方法进行数据处理和模型训练,得到根据圆周、长度等自变量进行压降预测的方程,即
Y=23.728+0.744X1-3.024X2-1.025X3-0.699X4
式(9)中:Y=lnΔP;X1=ln L;X2=ln C;X3=ln δ;X4=ln T;其中ΔP为压降,C为圆周,L为长度,δ为丝束单旦,T为丝束总旦。
以常规棒为例,验证集数据量10 102份。绘制对比图像如图6所示。散点基本分布在一条直线附近,直线方程斜率接近1,且越靠近数据范围中心,拟合直线上预测值越接近实际值,说明预测模型能够较好地反映实际压降值,可以用于生产预测。图6中残差分布有95.24%位于±0.05之间,说明数据预测范围和预测精度都满足要求。对总体数据量进行汇总,结果如表2所示。数据总体预测残差小于10%的数据总体均高于90%。
对于中支棒与细支棒,基于预测模型的验证残差分布如图7图8所示,几乎所有预测残差值位于10%误差范围内,90%以上位于5%误差范围内,证明当前多元线性回归模型用于实际滤棒压降预测可靠性。
基于多孔介质模型对常规滤棒内部流场和压力分布的模拟结果如图9所示。 在抽吸作用下,空气由左侧进口进入,同时滤棒外部的气流会透过成型纸进入成型纸区域,进而流入丝束区。 数值模拟得到的常规滤棒压降为2 740 Pa,与该类型滤棒的设计值(2 670±100) Pa相当。
图10所示为采用相同丝束为原料的常规棒3种不同长度(L=25、60、120 mm)的压降模拟结果。 图10中红色线为基于压降与滤棒长度呈现线性假设的参考线,根据模拟结果对比不同长度下的压降情况发现,3种长度滤棒对应的单位滤棒压降ΔPL=30 Pa/mm,21.67 Pa/mm和20.33 Pa/mm,表明压降与长度的线性关系会受到其他因素影响而偏离假设的线性压降线,这也说明采用多元线性回归构建滤棒压降预测模型的合理性。
基于多孔介质模型对不同类型滤棒进行了数值模拟。表3为基于生产数据选择的相同成型纸条件下常规、中支和细支3种滤棒和常规滤棒不同组合,并分别命名为A1~C1组合。A1、A2、A3作为相同型号滤棒改变成型纸透气度的滤棒压降研究,A1、B1、C1为相同成型纸透气度时改变滤棒类型的滤棒压降研究。
图11所示为对5种滤棒的压降模拟结果,各滤棒的模拟压降均在生产测试压降的误差范围内,这表明基于多区域和多孔介质模型能够有效模拟纤维滤棒内部的流动和压降,并获得各类型滤棒丝束对应于多孔介质模型中的渗透率系数,如表4所示。模拟结果表明采用相同丝束规格只改变成型纸透气度,对滤棒整体压降影响较小,几乎可以忽略不计,这一模拟结果也符合实际生产经验规律;而固定成型纸型号,选用不同丝束构造滤棒,其压降变化较大,也反映出滤棒压降随长度减小而降低。
基于表3中A1、B1两种滤棒尺寸,利用表4所示丝束渗透参数构建不同丝束和圆周的滤棒,进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明,B1滤棒丝束由142 kg/m3替换为135 kg/m3时,压降由2 430 Pa增大至2 680 Pa,变化幅度10.3%,而只增大圆周至24 mm时,压降降低至2 070 Pa,变化幅度14.9%;A1滤棒棒将圆周缩小为19.9 mm时,压降从2 360 Pa提升至2 630 Pa,变化幅度11.1%,改用丝束(142 kg/m3)时压降降低至1 990 Pa,变化幅度15.7%。
因此,基于现有滤棒尺寸和丝束进行搭配时,在滤棒长度不变时,改变滤棒的丝束类型对于压降的影响相对会大于圆周改变产生的影响。
基于计算流体力学不仅可以获得滤棒内的流动和压力分布,同时也能够预测滤棒的压降,这也为验证多元线性回归模型的压降预测值提供了一种验证方法。相比于计算流体力学的方法,基多元回归的压降预测模型能够更快速地给出多个变量组合下的压降,因此结合二者的优势,可以实现滤棒的定量化设计。
以密度=135 kg/m3丝束为原料设计常规滤棒,压降设计值为2 744 Pa。首先假设以长度、圆周和成型纸分别为1 200 mm、24 m和6 000 CU,将设计数据代入多元非线性回归预测模型可得其预测压降为2 810 Pa,与设计值偏差小于4%;进一步按照丝束和假设的几何尺寸,利用表4丝束物性参数和多孔介质模型进行数值模拟,得到模拟结果为2 750 Pa。通过数值模拟对预测模型结果的证明,表明当前几何参数和丝束的搭配能够实现压降设计值。
基于上述的参数进行滤棒生产,并对生产滤棒测试数据清洗筛选后,总计获得10 784份检验数据。随机选取1 000份生产数据作为多元回归模型的输入变量,得到基于预测模型的压降预测均值为2 769.2 Pa,标准差65.07;生产值压降均值2 752.6 Pa,标准差82.42。图12所示为生产值与模型计算的压降误差散点图,虽然模型预测值均值相较设计压降略高,但95%以上预测值在(2 660.7,2 832.2) Pa范围内。
图13则表示全部10 784份生产数据作为多元回归模型的检测数据。其中有10 218份数据残差值在±0.05以内,比例为94.75%。残差相对中心零线呈近似对称的类正态分布结构。由上述多元回归模型和多孔介质模型得到的滤棒压降预测残差均在10%以内,符合GB/T5605《醋酸纤维滤棒》中滤棒生产过程中的压降范围设定[20],表明两种方法的应用可以有效提升模型预测的可靠性。
经过验证后的多元回归模型得到较高的预测精度,采用丝束消耗预测获得丝束消耗量并进行CFD模拟压降的方法同样能够预测得到精度满足条件的结果,此次验证说明采用CFD模拟的方法能够进行在未知压降标准的情况下,根据长度圆周等物理指标参数进行压降的预测并获得较为精确的结果,且由于多元回归模型可能受到训练数据范围的影响,CFD模拟预测方法在某些特殊条件下可能可以更好地进行压降预测,并反向进行对回归模型的修正调整。本文研究综合运用CFD模拟与多元回归模型,提出两种模型互相验证用于滤棒的设计,得到如下结论:
(1)根据大数据构建多元回归模型,经过系数验证与残差检验后表现出较好的预测性能,R2拟合优度98.2%精度较高,RMSE均方根误差 0.025 3相对较小,因此认为构建模型可以用于预测分析。
(2)采用多孔介质模型模拟滤棒内部气体流动,探究气体迁移规律,研究压降变化并针对多种类滤棒进行了压降值模拟预测,表明压降是受到多因素影响。
(3)结合回归模型与多孔介质模型与进行目标压降的滤棒设计,分别给出估计丝束消耗量与验证,通过将模型预测结果与实际生产结果对照,证明两种方法联用能够有效指导滤棒设计。
  • 河北省自然科学基金(E2021203041)
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2025年第25卷第14期
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402603
  • 接收时间:2024-04-10
  • 首发时间:2025-07-09
  • 出版时间:2025-05-18
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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-10
  • 修回日期:2025-02-13
基金
河北省自然科学基金(E2021203041)
作者信息
    1. 湖北中烟有限责任公司, 武汉 430040
    2. 燕山大学车辆与能源学院, 秦皇岛 066104
    3. 华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院,武汉 430074

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*刘文婷(1987—),女,汉族,湖北武汉人,博士,工程师。研究方向:包装材料。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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