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农业新质生产力是驱动农业农村现代化的核心动力,也是破解农业发展瓶颈、重塑产业竞争新优势的关键所在。尽管已有研究取得一定进展,但仍存在尺度偏向宏观、指标体系对数字与绿色协同维度刻画不足、驱动机理分析缺乏系统归因等局限。以长株潭都市圈为研究对象,构建涵盖创新驱动、数字赋能、绿色转型、要素升级4个维度的农业新质生产力评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS(逼近理想解排序)模型测度2014—2023年长沙、株洲、湘潭3市的农业新质生产力水平,揭示其时空演变特征;运用耦合协调模型分析4个子系统的协同演化特征,并借助障碍度模型识别主要障碍因子。结果表明:长株潭都市圈农业新质生产力呈“株洲领跑、长沙追赶、湘潭滞后”的阶梯状格局,位次高度稳定,区域差异显著;4个系统的耦合协调度总体由失调向协调过渡,株洲率先进入中级协调阶段,长沙赶超势头强劲,湘潭长期徘徊于勉强协调边缘;数字赋能是制约全域发展的首要瓶颈,其中数字行业从业人员占比和信息技术、软件及技术服务收入水平是共性障碍因子,绿色转型障碍度最低,说明“两型社会”建设成效显著;时空演变的驱动机制可归纳为要素流动、技术渗透、空间重构、制度协同、生态约束5个维度的协同作用。研究成果可为都市圈农业新质生产力培育及区域一体化发展提供理论依据与实践参考。

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