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基于CRITIC(基于指标间相关性的权重确定法)-VIKOR(多准则妥协优化排序法)-障碍度模型,对2010—2024年河北省规上企业创新绩效进行多维度动态评价。结果表明,河北省规上企业创新绩效2017年达到峰值后持续下滑,2024年已接近历史最低水平。当前绩效恶化的核心症结高度集中于“技术获取与技术改造”维度,特别是技术改造经费和引进境外技术经费两项投入低效,二者在2024年合计贡献近70%的障碍度。与此同时,新产品销售收入的障碍度持续上升,市场转化环节出现堵塞。而传统的R&D投入、机构建设、新产品开发等维度已全面优化,不再是制约因素。据此,建议政策重心从“扩大投入规模”转向“提升投入质量”,精准整治技术改造和境外技术引进的低效项目,疏通新产品市场转化渠道,并建立基于障碍度与VIKOR的R值动态预警机制。研究结果可为河北省及同类地区规上企业创新效率诊断提供可量化的决策依据。

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