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基于长三角地区41市2010—2022年长周期面板数据,从经济地理与邻接空间矩阵双重视角出发,运用空间杜宾模型,实证分析新质生产力对城市韧性的空间溢出效应。研究发现:长三角地区城市韧性呈现核心-边缘分化格局,经济关联的空间依赖性持续上升,而地理邻近性作用逐步减弱;新质生产力对城市韧性具有显著的正向直接效应和空间溢出效应,经济地理矩阵的间接效应约为空间邻接的1.6倍;经济集聚、能源效率和金融发展对城市韧性提升的直接效应显著,人力资本存在负向溢出风险。由此提出因地制宜发展新质生产力、加强区域协调发展、差异化精准施策推动城市韧性水平提升等建议。

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