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基于内蒙古418份牧户调查数据,采用内生转换回归模型,在反事实框架下评估了参与订单农业对牧户畜牧业纯收入的影响。结果表明,参与订单农业显著提升了牧户的畜牧业纯收入,具体表现为参与者的平均处理效应(ATT)显著为正,且未参与牧户若选择参与,其收入亦将获得显著提升(ATU)。该结论在更换变量度量方式后仍保持稳健。机制分析显示,订单农业主要通过增加畜牧业要素投入和促进技术培训两条路径提升牧户收入。异质性分析发现,户主受教育水平较高、家庭劳动力数量较少、草场经营面积较小的牧户从订单农业中获益更大,其收入提升效应尤为显著。为探索牧户可持续增收路径、推动牧区高质量发展提供了实践参考。

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