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基于2011—2022年中国A股上市公司构建的微观面板数据,将2018年实施的供应链创新与应用试点政策识别为一项关键外生冲击。通过构建倾向得分匹配-双重差分(PSM-DID)计量模型,旨在系统揭示供应链数字化对分析师预测准确度的影响及该影响的作用路径。核心研究发现表明,企业供应链数字化实践显著优化了分析师预测精度,该效应在经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂测试及工具变量法等一系列内生性处理策略验证后,结论依然稳健可靠。机制检验揭示,供应链数字化通过两条关键路径提升预测准确性:一是促进企业全要素生产率(TFP)的实质性增长,二是有效缓解其面临的融资约束程度。异质性分析进一步指出,该提升效应在中部地区企业中未呈现统计显著性,且对于处于亏损状态的企业,其作用效果亦相对有限。

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