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基于2012—2022年中国省级森林火灾和消防无人机产业数据,运用双重固定效应模型研究森林火灾对消防无人机产业发展的影响机制。研究发现:森林火灾的发生不仅驱动了消防无人机整体产业的发展,而且能促进消防无人机高新技术企业的发展;政府公共安全支出和低空产业集聚是森林火灾正向影响消防无人机产业发展的核心机制;森林火灾的发生对消防无人机产业发展的促进作用存在明显的区域异质性,其中东、西部省份较为显著,而中部省份则不显著;东部省份的公共安全支出和低空产业集聚机制均显著,西部省份则只有公共安全支出机制显著。由此提出应在政策设计中考虑森林火灾不确定性、加强智慧消防采购规划、构建产业生态圈和低空产业链区域协同等方面的对策建议。

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