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针对碳交易中制造商减排水平与努力程度双重信息不对称问题,构建零售商主导的供应链博弈模型,融合贝叶斯推断与委托代理模型,设计混合激励契约机制。研究发现:激励规律存在差异,低减排水平制造商因激励系数随减排水平提升而递减,仅能通过真实披露信息获得基准收益,而高减排水平制造商可额外获取信息溢价;契约选择不同,高减排制造商与零售商偏好分离契约以实现价值最大化,零售商则通过混同契约提升与低减排制造商的合作效益;动态市场结构下,高减排制造商占比与零售商利润呈显著正相关性,证实供应链协同效应随优质制造商比例增加而强化。

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