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基于中国城市化进程中城市规模分化与区域协调发展并存的现实背景,从“规模-模式-效率-空间”的统一框架出发,考察产业专业化、多样化与城市经济效率之间的关系。利用1999—2014年277个地级市面板数据,分别构建面板门槛回归模型和径向嵌套空间杜宾模型,对城市规模门槛及不同专业化类型的空间作用边界进行识别。研究发现:城市规模显著改变产业模式对经济效率的影响方向和强度。以产值结构衡量时,人口门槛约为183万人和637万人;以就业结构衡量时,对应门槛约为214万人和649万人。低人口规模城市更适宜围绕比较优势推进高浓度产值专业化,以实现资源聚焦和局部规模经济;超大城市则更多依靠多样化通过异质知识重组、跨行业协同和风险分散提升效率;处于两个门槛之间的中等规模城市,更适合采取“主导产业专业化+关联产业多样化”的过渡型路径。空间效应进一步表明,就业专业化在150km以内更易诱发要素争夺与同质化扩张,从而产生负向溢出;产值专业化则在300~500km范围内通过产业链分工、功能互补和制度协同形成更明显的正向溢出。据此提出面向不同规模城市和不同空间半径的分类治理思路。

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