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在绿色转型浪潮中,管理者前瞻性被视作撬动企业绿色投资的关键认知引擎,但其与组织执行力之间的张力尚未得到足够关注。整合企业行为理论与资源基础观,提出并验证前瞻性对绿色投资的倒“U”型影响,即前瞻性通过识别长期机遇、提升战略优先级,显著促进绿色投资,但过高的前瞻性则因超越企业财务、技术与组织承载能力,反而对企业绿色投资产生负面影响。基于2012—2022年中国制造业上市公司样本研究发现,管理者前瞻性对绿色投资呈先升后降的倒“U”关系,供应链网络中心度存在重要的调节作用,能够显著平缓该曲线,中心度越高,越能缓和前瞻性过高带来的负面影响。研究揭示了管理者认知因素与供应链网络结构如何共同塑造绿色投资行为,为企业平衡战略远见与执行能力、利用供应链协同稳健推进绿色转型提供了理论依据与管理启示。

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