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针对天然气场站防爆电气设备设施在日常运维中面临的爆炸风险防控需求,以预防电气火花引发天然气燃爆事故为核心目标,构建基于层次分析法(AHP)与专家信心权重的风险评价模型,实现防爆电气系统潜在风险的科学量化与分级管控。从“产品质量不合格”“选型因素”“安装质量不符合要求”“生产维护类问题”4个方面选取24个二级因素构建天然气场站防爆电气安全评价体系。以浙江省某天然气场站为例进行分析和验证,将评价指标风险等级划分为极低风险、低风险、中风险、高风险、极高风险,并组建一个由25名经验丰富的专家组成的团队。考虑到25名专家的经验及背景均不同,结合专家信心权重指标法对评价指标进行现场打分,基于正态分布原理综合确定评价指标在各风险等级的风险概率打分,结合AHP得出天然气场站防爆电气一级因素的风险等级。该天然气场站整体风险等级为“中风险”,其中“安装质量不符合要求”的风险等级最高,为高风险,评价结果符合实际情况。通过对一级因素的敏感性分析验证了评价模型的稳健性。研究提出的基于AHP与信心权重的防爆电气模糊风险评价模型,核心优势在于将定性的安全风险转化为可量化的指标。这种量化风险评估能力不仅实现了对风险等级的精确判断,更能够指导安全管理人员进行风险排序与资源优化配置,从而显著提升场站安全管理的科学化与精细化水平。

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