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印太地区是中国对外贸易的重要着力点,印太经济框架(IPEF)的正式宣布将对中国以及世界经贸格局产生深远影响。构建了一个多国两部门两要素的开放经济模型,运用可计算一般均衡方法,模拟分析了IPEF对中国和世界主要经济体的影响。研究发现:IPEF对中国的主要冲击是小幅抑制出口,而进口和福利会小幅上升;随着IPEF进一步扩容纳入加拿大、墨西哥、秘鲁和智利,中国出口降幅会扩大,而进口和福利将微幅增加;随着印度加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP),IPEF和RCEP的联合效应会导致中国出口继续恶化,其出口降幅进一步扩大,但进口和福利增幅会增加;随着中国加入全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(CPTPP),IPEF和CPTPP的联合影响会改善中国的出口,使中国出口小幅上升,且进口和福利进一步增加。总体而言,IPEF对中国的经济影响有限。

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