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粮食生产事关国运民生。基于2008—2022年中国31个省份(因数据缺失,未包含港澳台地区)的面板数据,运用熵值法综合测度粮食生产韧性发展水平,并构建计量模型实证检验产业结构升级、政府支持和生态环境治理改善三条路径对其的影响。研究发现:全国层面,恢复适应能力是制约粮食生产韧性提升的关键因素;区域层面,东部和东北地区韧性水平最高,中部发展相对滞后,西部增速最快;省级层面,各省韧性水平普遍提升但差异显著。路径分析表明,产业结构升级对韧性具有显著抑制作用,而财政支持和生态环境治理改善则发挥显著促进作用。基于此,研究给出具体建议,为提高粮食生产韧性提供参考。

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