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通过构建双向固定效应模型,实证检验非洲东道国金融发展对中国对非产业转移的影响机制。基于熵权法综合评估东道国金融发展水平后研究显示,非洲国家金融发展对产业转移存在显著正向促进效应,且该效应在东非、中非地区及中低收入国家尤为突出。进一步通过多维调节效应研究发现:城镇化进程因工业化缺位引发资源错配,抑制了金融发展的积极影响;治理水平提升通过优化制度环境产生正向调节,强化金融体系效能;企业税负增加则发挥负向调节作用,削弱金融发展的边际贡献。基于上述结论,提出三维政策框架:非洲需以金融深化与制度协同破解城镇化陷阱;中国应实施政策适配与风险防控精准赋能;中非合作须通过跨域联动与能力共建构建产业转移生态体系。研究为促进中非产业投资合作提供了金融驱动与制度协同方面的实证依据与政策启示。

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