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中国作为制造业第一大国,绿色转型是必由之路。基于2011—2023年中国省级面板数据,构建超效率SBM(基于松弛变量的度量模型)阐释环境规制与制造业绿色低碳转型之间的内在逻辑。在双固定效应模型的基础上得出以下结论:环境规制能够显著促进制造业绿色转型且存在门槛效应,绿色技术创新发挥中介作用;在金融业发达、工业资本水平高的地区环境规制的促进作用更为显著。研究结果可为构建环境规制协商机制、实施差异化规制和市场导向的创新体系在推动制造业污染减排方面提供经验证据,也可为相关政策制定提供参考。

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