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Article(id=1206288137882497692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1206288129569387042, articleNumber=1671-1807(2025)11-0346-11, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1725897600000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1765531103821, onlineDateStr=2025-12-12, pubDate=1749484800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1765531103821, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-12, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1765531103821, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765531103821, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1206288129569387042, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, year='2025', volume='25', issue='11', pageStart='1', pageEnd='389', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1765531101838, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1765531429788, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1206289505120744207, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1206288129569387042, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1206289505120744208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1206288129569387042, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=346, endPage=356, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1206288138826216156, articleId=1206288137882497692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, language=EN, title=International Research Progress and Cutting-edge Prospects of Energy Transition:Bibliometrics of WoS Database Based on CiteSpace, columnId=1151877659430055969, journalTitle=Science Technology and Industry, columnName=Governance & Performance, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

CiteSpace visualization software was used to quantitatively analyze the publication trends, hot topics, and research context evolution of SSCI(Social Sciences Citation Index) papers on energy transition in the WoS(Web of Science) database. The results indicate that from temporal perspective, relevant research has gone through stages of budding exploration, steady growth, and rapid development. Since 2016, there has been an explosive increase in the number of publications, demonstrating the integration of humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences.From spatial distribution perspective, European countries are the main research force, while the academic influence of Asian countries in this field continues to increase. The top five research countries are the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, China, and the Netherlands.From high impact literature,technological innovation,fairness and justice are topics that have received more attention, while the factors affecting energy transition have been a hot topic in recent years. From the perspective of keywords, research hotspots have changed rapidly, shifting from government functions in energy transition to multi driven research of “technology-policy-public”,from single transition target research to collaborative research on energy transition and multiple objectives such as fairness and justice, economic growth, and social change. Therefore, in the future, attention should be paid to interdisciplinary and comprehensive research on energy transition, multi-objective collaborative research, key technology breakthrough research, and government market combination research, to enrich the grand narrative and theoretical system of energy transition in the Chinese context.

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运用CiteSpace可视化软件,计量分析WoS(Web of Science) 数据库中能源转型主题SSCI(社会科学引文索引)论文的发文趋势、热点主题和研究脉络演化。结果表明:从时间脉络看,相关研究经历萌芽探索、稳步增长和快速发展阶段,2016年以来发文量爆发式增长,呈现人文社科和自然科学交叉融合特点;从空间分布看,欧洲国家是主要研究力量,亚洲国家在该领域的学术影响持续增强,前5大研究国依次为英国、美国、德国、中国和荷兰;从高影响力文献看,技术创新与公平正义是受关注较多的主题,能源转型影响因素则是近年来的热点主题;从关键词看,研究热点更迭较快,从聚焦能源转型中的政府职能,演化为“技术-政策-公众”多元驱动研究,从单一转型目标研究,转向能源转型与公平正义、经济增长、社会变革等多目标的协同研究。鉴此,后续应重视能源转型的多学科综合研究、多目标协同研究、关键技术突破研究,以及政府与市场合力驱动研究,丰富中国情境下的能源转型宏大叙事与理论体系。

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李杨(1987—),女,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与能源经济。

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李杨(1987—),女,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与能源经济。

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李杨(1987—),女,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与能源经济。

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序号 题名 研究主题 发文期刊 发文时间
1 Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition 储能 Nature Energy 2017
2 How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions 转型时间尺度 Energy Research & Social Science 2016
3 The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition 公正公平 Nature Energy 2020
4 Politicizing energy justice and energy system transitions: Fossil fuel divestment and a“just transition” 公平正义 Energy Policy 2017
5 Just transition: Integrating climate, energy and environmental justice 气候、能源和环境正义 Energy Policy 2018
6 Power to the people: Local community initiatives and the transition to sustainable energy 社区街区 Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 2015
7 Structural decline in China’s CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems 碳减排 Nature Geoscience 2018
8 Assessing the impact of transition from nonrenewable to renewable energy consumption on economic growth-environmental nexus from developing Asian economies 经济、环境效益 Journal of Environmental Management 2021
9 Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe 电力部门转型路径 Renewable Energy 2019
10 The next phase ofthe energy transition and its implications for research and policy 转型不同阶段特征比较 Nature Energy 2018
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能源转型研究的高被引文献

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序号 题名 研究主题 发文期刊 发文时间
1 Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition 储能 Nature Energy 2017
2 How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions 转型时间尺度 Energy Research & Social Science 2016
3 The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition 公正公平 Nature Energy 2020
4 Politicizing energy justice and energy system transitions: Fossil fuel divestment and a“just transition” 公平正义 Energy Policy 2017
5 Just transition: Integrating climate, energy and environmental justice 气候、能源和环境正义 Energy Policy 2018
6 Power to the people: Local community initiatives and the transition to sustainable energy 社区街区 Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 2015
7 Structural decline in China’s CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems 碳减排 Nature Geoscience 2018
8 Assessing the impact of transition from nonrenewable to renewable energy consumption on economic growth-environmental nexus from developing Asian economies 经济、环境效益 Journal of Environmental Management 2021
9 Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe 电力部门转型路径 Renewable Energy 2019
10 The next phase ofthe energy transition and its implications for research and policy 转型不同阶段特征比较 Nature Energy 2018
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序号 题名 研究主题 发文期刊 发文时间
1 Does environmental regulation improve energy transition performance in China? 环境法规与能源转型绩效 Environmental Impact AssessmentReview 2024
2 Roles of trilemma in the world energy sector and transition towards sustainable energy: A study of economic growth and the environment 验证能源不可能三角 Energy Policy 2022
3 Advancing sustainable growth and energy transition in the United States through the lens of greenenergy innovations, natural resources and environmental policy 绿色能源创新、自然资源和环境政策与能源转型 Resources Policy 2023
4 Transitioning to clean energy: Assessing the impact of renewable energy, bio-capacity and access to clean fuel on carbon emissions in OECD economies 能源转型对碳减排的影响 Energy Economics 2023
5 Impact of FinTech, governance and environmental taxes on energy transition: Pre-post COVID-19 analysis of belt and road initiative countries 金融科技、治理和环境税对能源转型的影响 Resources Policy 2023
6 Do green innovation andfinancial globalization contribute to the ecological sustainability and energy transition in the United Kingdom? Policy insights from a bootstrap rolling window approach 绿色创新和金融全球化与能源转型 Sustainable Development 2023
7 The role of green financing in facilitating renewable energy transition in China: Perspectives from energy governance, environmental regulation, and market reforms 绿色金融与能源转型 Energy Economics 2023
8 Role of environmental regulations and eco-innovation in energy structure transition forgreen growth: Evidence from OECD 环境法规和生态创新与能源转型 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2022
9 Towards environmental sustainability in E-7 countries: Assessing the roles of natural resources, economic growth, country risk, and energy transition 自然资源租金、绿色能源消费与碳减排 Resources Policy 2023
10 The roles of technology and Kyoto Protocol in energy transition towards COP26 targets: Evidence from the novel GMM-PVAR approach for G-7 countries 技术进步、《京都议定书》与能源转型 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2022
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能源转型研究的热点文献

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序号 题名 研究主题 发文期刊 发文时间
1 Does environmental regulation improve energy transition performance in China? 环境法规与能源转型绩效 Environmental Impact AssessmentReview 2024
2 Roles of trilemma in the world energy sector and transition towards sustainable energy: A study of economic growth and the environment 验证能源不可能三角 Energy Policy 2022
3 Advancing sustainable growth and energy transition in the United States through the lens of greenenergy innovations, natural resources and environmental policy 绿色能源创新、自然资源和环境政策与能源转型 Resources Policy 2023
4 Transitioning to clean energy: Assessing the impact of renewable energy, bio-capacity and access to clean fuel on carbon emissions in OECD economies 能源转型对碳减排的影响 Energy Economics 2023
5 Impact of FinTech, governance and environmental taxes on energy transition: Pre-post COVID-19 analysis of belt and road initiative countries 金融科技、治理和环境税对能源转型的影响 Resources Policy 2023
6 Do green innovation andfinancial globalization contribute to the ecological sustainability and energy transition in the United Kingdom? Policy insights from a bootstrap rolling window approach 绿色创新和金融全球化与能源转型 Sustainable Development 2023
7 The role of green financing in facilitating renewable energy transition in China: Perspectives from energy governance, environmental regulation, and market reforms 绿色金融与能源转型 Energy Economics 2023
8 Role of environmental regulations and eco-innovation in energy structure transition forgreen growth: Evidence from OECD 环境法规和生态创新与能源转型 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2022
9 Towards environmental sustainability in E-7 countries: Assessing the roles of natural resources, economic growth, country risk, and energy transition 自然资源租金、绿色能源消费与碳减排 Resources Policy 2023
10 The roles of technology and Kyoto Protocol in energy transition towards COP26 targets: Evidence from the novel GMM-PVAR approach for G-7 countries 技术进步、《京都议定书》与能源转型 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2022
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研究主题 子聚类名称
科学内涵 #0 smart grid、#3 energy transition、#6 renewable energy、#11 energy transitions、#12 sustainable energy、#18 renewable energy consumption
综合效益 #4 sustainable development、#8 energy poverty、#10 ecological footprint、#16 environmental sustainability
现实挑战 #9 social acceptance、#17 energy justice
推进策略 #1 law、#5 financial development、#13 market design、#14 decision making、#19 energy policy
研究视角 #2 political economy、#7 multilevel perspective、#15 narratives
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能源转型研究关键词聚类分析

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研究主题 子聚类名称
科学内涵 #0 smart grid、#3 energy transition、#6 renewable energy、#11 energy transitions、#12 sustainable energy、#18 renewable energy consumption
综合效益 #4 sustainable development、#8 energy poverty、#10 ecological footprint、#16 environmental sustainability
现实挑战 #9 social acceptance、#17 energy justice
推进策略 #1 law、#5 financial development、#13 market design、#14 decision making、#19 energy policy
研究视角 #2 political economy、#7 multilevel perspective、#15 narratives
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最强引用突现关键词 出现
年份		 突现
强度		 突现
开始		 突现
结束
城市city 2007 4.71 2007 2015
治理governance 2009 6.23 2009 2016
欧洲Europe 2010 4.23 2010 2016
能源转型energy transitions 2007 5.84 2012 2017
视角perspective 2009 4.44 2012 2018
政治politics 2009 4.82 2014 2018
技术转型technological transitions 2014 4.29 2014 2018
多层次视角multilevel perspective 2015 11.73 2015 2018
空间space 2016 4.56 2016 2018
英国United Kingdom 2016 4.56 2016 2018
情景scenarios 2016 4.47 2016 2017
可持续转型sustainability transitions 2015 4.42 2016 2018
技术创新体系technological innovation systems 2016 4.23 2016 2019
海上风电offshore wind 2016 4.15 2016 2019
国家state 2016 4.13 2016 2018
英国UK 2017 6.98 2017 2018
技术technology 2010 4.6 2017 2018
政策组合policy mix 2017 4.36 2017 2018
公众认同public acceptance 2015 4.33 2018 2019
时间动态temporal dynamics 2018 4.22 2018 2019
智能电网smart grids 2019 4.05 2019 2021
驱动因素drivers 2021 4.17 2021 2022
公正转型just transition 2020 7.58 2022 2024
增长growth 2010 4.22 2022 2024
社会变革social innovation 2022 4.06 2022 2024
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2001年—2024年能源转型研究的突现关键词信息

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最强引用突现关键词 出现
年份		 突现
强度		 突现
开始		 突现
结束
城市city 2007 4.71 2007 2015
治理governance 2009 6.23 2009 2016
欧洲Europe 2010 4.23 2010 2016
能源转型energy transitions 2007 5.84 2012 2017
视角perspective 2009 4.44 2012 2018
政治politics 2009 4.82 2014 2018
技术转型technological transitions 2014 4.29 2014 2018
多层次视角multilevel perspective 2015 11.73 2015 2018
空间space 2016 4.56 2016 2018
英国United Kingdom 2016 4.56 2016 2018
情景scenarios 2016 4.47 2016 2017
可持续转型sustainability transitions 2015 4.42 2016 2018
技术创新体系technological innovation systems 2016 4.23 2016 2019
海上风电offshore wind 2016 4.15 2016 2019
国家state 2016 4.13 2016 2018
英国UK 2017 6.98 2017 2018
技术technology 2010 4.6 2017 2018
政策组合policy mix 2017 4.36 2017 2018
公众认同public acceptance 2015 4.33 2018 2019
时间动态temporal dynamics 2018 4.22 2018 2019
智能电网smart grids 2019 4.05 2019 2021
驱动因素drivers 2021 4.17 2021 2022
公正转型just transition 2020 7.58 2022 2024
增长growth 2010 4.22 2022 2024
社会变革social innovation 2022 4.06 2022 2024
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能源转型的国际研究进展与前沿展望——基于CiteSpace对WoS数据库的文献计量
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李杨
科技和产业 | 治理绩效 2025,25(11): 346-356
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科技和产业 | 治理绩效 2025, 25(11): 346-356
能源转型的国际研究进展与前沿展望——基于CiteSpace对WoS数据库的文献计量
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李杨
作者信息
  • 广州行政学院经济学教研部, 广州 510070

    • 李杨(1987—),女,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与能源经济。

International Research Progress and Cutting-edge Prospects of Energy Transition:Bibliometrics of WoS Database Based on CiteSpace
Yang LI
Affiliations
  • Department of Economics, Guangzhou Administration Institute, Guangzhou 510070, China
出版时间: 2025-06-10
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摘要
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运用CiteSpace可视化软件,计量分析WoS(Web of Science) 数据库中能源转型主题SSCI(社会科学引文索引)论文的发文趋势、热点主题和研究脉络演化。结果表明:从时间脉络看,相关研究经历萌芽探索、稳步增长和快速发展阶段,2016年以来发文量爆发式增长,呈现人文社科和自然科学交叉融合特点;从空间分布看,欧洲国家是主要研究力量,亚洲国家在该领域的学术影响持续增强,前5大研究国依次为英国、美国、德国、中国和荷兰;从高影响力文献看,技术创新与公平正义是受关注较多的主题,能源转型影响因素则是近年来的热点主题;从关键词看,研究热点更迭较快,从聚焦能源转型中的政府职能,演化为“技术-政策-公众”多元驱动研究,从单一转型目标研究,转向能源转型与公平正义、经济增长、社会变革等多目标的协同研究。鉴此,后续应重视能源转型的多学科综合研究、多目标协同研究、关键技术突破研究,以及政府与市场合力驱动研究,丰富中国情境下的能源转型宏大叙事与理论体系。

能源转型  /  国际  /  研究热点  /  CiteSpace  /  知识图谱

CiteSpace visualization software was used to quantitatively analyze the publication trends, hot topics, and research context evolution of SSCI(Social Sciences Citation Index) papers on energy transition in the WoS(Web of Science) database. The results indicate that from temporal perspective, relevant research has gone through stages of budding exploration, steady growth, and rapid development. Since 2016, there has been an explosive increase in the number of publications, demonstrating the integration of humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences.From spatial distribution perspective, European countries are the main research force, while the academic influence of Asian countries in this field continues to increase. The top five research countries are the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, China, and the Netherlands.From high impact literature,technological innovation,fairness and justice are topics that have received more attention, while the factors affecting energy transition have been a hot topic in recent years. From the perspective of keywords, research hotspots have changed rapidly, shifting from government functions in energy transition to multi driven research of “technology-policy-public”,from single transition target research to collaborative research on energy transition and multiple objectives such as fairness and justice, economic growth, and social change. Therefore, in the future, attention should be paid to interdisciplinary and comprehensive research on energy transition, multi-objective collaborative research, key technology breakthrough research, and government market combination research, to enrich the grand narrative and theoretical system of energy transition in the Chinese context.

energy transition  /  international  /  research hotspots  /  CiteSpace  /  knowledge graph
李杨. 能源转型的国际研究进展与前沿展望——基于CiteSpace对WoS数据库的文献计量. 科技和产业, 2025 , 25 (11) : 346 -356 .
Yang LI. International Research Progress and Cutting-edge Prospects of Energy Transition:Bibliometrics of WoS Database Based on CiteSpace[J]. Science Technology and Industry, 2025 , 25 (11) : 346 -356 .
正文
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能源是国民经济的命脉,是支撑中国式现代化的重要物质基础,能源转型带来的能源、科技与产业革命是新质生产力发展的重要动力。当前全球气候变化影响日益显著,能源安全不确定性增加,各国能源转型步伐加快。中国作为能源消费和碳排放大国,在2024年的《政府工作报告》中明确指出,扎实开展“碳达峰十大行动”,深入推进能源革命。根据生态环境部发布的《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动2024年度报告》,2023年全国非化石能源消费比重为17.9%,较上年增加0.3%,能源绿色低碳转型正稳步推进。但是,距离“到2030年,非化石能源消费比重达到25%左右”“到2060年,非化石能源消费比重达到80%以上”的“双碳”目标还存在较大差距。2024年2月,中共中央政治局就新能源技术与中国能源安全进行第十二次集体学习,释放加快能源结构转型的积极信号。
在能源变迁和经济社会发展不同时期,能源转型内涵不断演变和丰富。早期阶段,是指从柴薪向化石燃料和电能过渡[1],以及化石能源内部结构调整,如煤炭向油气过渡[2]。随着绿色低碳发展成为各国共识,能源转型的降碳化特征凸显。狭义角度,能源转型以主体能源更替为表征,指主导能源向可再生能源转型。广义角度,能源转型包括数量、结构和质量多重含义[3],指能源利用高效化、结构清洁化和技术低碳化,可从降低化石能源消费、可再生能源替代和提升能源效率视角[4],使用化石能源或煤炭消费规模和比重、可再生能源或电力消费规模和比重、单位GDP能耗等指标测算。随着研究深入推进,学者们不仅对其内涵与测算[5]进行探讨,还对能源转型的驱动因素[6-7]、转型困境与路径[8]、与经济增长的互动关联[9-10]、涉及的公平与正义[11]等开展了丰富研究。
不可否认的是,各国能源转型步伐不一致带来学术研究成果的差异。工业革命以来,化石能源大量消耗带来能源、环境和经济之间的冲突日益尖锐,早在20世纪70年代,国际学术界就开始关注能源转型问题,指出能源约束与能源危机带来能源转型的必要性[12]。相较而言,国内学者对于能源转型的关注时间晚于国际约30年,相关实证和政策研究尚不够充分。韩民青[13]指出中国推进现代化的历史进程与全球能源转型期重叠,必须大力开发新能源,实现主导能源适时转型。鉴此,本文运用CiteSpace可视化软件对能源转型的国际研究进行文献计量分析,尝试归纳能源转型的基本规律和共性特征、对经济社会的影响、存在哪些亟待解决的问题和值得学习的能源转型方案,旨在为政策制定提供多角度理论依据以及为国内该领域研究提供前沿动态线索。
1 能源转型的国际研究整体情况
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将Web of Science(WoS)核心合集数据库作为文献数据来源,以“energy transition”为标题检索词,文献类型设定为Article或者Review,检索2001年1月1日至2024年3月31日①SSCI(社会科学引文索引)收录的能源转型英文文献,使用CiteSpace可视化软件作为分析工具,全景式呈现能源转型国际研究进展。
1.1 发文量时间脉络与阶段性特征
年度发表论文数量及其变化趋势反映该研究领域发展态势和受关注程度,可以从整体上把握和预测研究进展和热度。2001以来,WoS数据库收录能源转型主题的SSCI论文共2 184篇,发文量总体呈上升趋势,是国际学术领域重要研究主题,可根据变化特征分为3个阶段。
第1阶段为2001—2009年,化石能源的可耗竭和高污染特征带来能源转型研究的萌芽探索阶段。该阶段文献数量总体较少,年度发文量大多为个位数,在波动中呈缓慢上升趋势。相关论文主要使用定性模型和案例分析方法探讨能源转型的趋势、现状和问题,研究对象多元,对能源转型的内涵界定也呈现出多样化,总体属于基础性探讨,没有进行较深层次的研究。Pachauri和Jiang[14]以中国、印度等发展中国家为研究对象,探讨从柴薪秸秆、到煤油、再到电力的能源转型问题;Shackley和Green[15]以发达国家为研究对象,从节能、向可再生能源(风能、光伏和生物质等)过渡视角进行研究,前瞻性地对CCUS(carbon capture, utilization and storage, 碳捕集、利用与封存)、氢能等技术提出展望。这一阶段学术研究成果表明,国家间能源转型步伐存在差距,但是差距正在不断收敛,发展中国家能源转型发生于相对更低的收入水平,其经济增长对生态系统的影响也相对更小。
第2阶段为2010—2015年,新能源技术创新与产业快速发展带来发文数量稳步增长阶段。该阶段学术界对能源转型的研究力度明显增强,研究范围不断拓展,研究内容更加细化深化。学者们对建筑、钢铁和交通运输等重点行业[16-18]能源转型的挑战与差异化路径进行了探讨,构建理论模型并且实证检验能源投资回报率、油价、政党政治竞争和社会文化因素等对能源转型的影响;Lindmark等[19]以瑞典造纸行业为研究对象,指出能源转型由市场力量和政府政策共同推动,石油危机和能源税带来油价上涨是企业寻求能源转型的主要动机,政府为新技术研发和投资提供补贴和优惠贷款,加快了能源转型。这一阶段学者们对能源转型政策的研究较为系统全面,验证了能效认证证书、投融资政策、可再生能源财政补贴、上网电价等[20-21]对能源转型的促进作用,一致认为政策的长期性和综合性极为关键。
第3阶段为2016—2024年,国际气候变化谈判持续推进带来能源转型研究的快速发展阶段。2015年12月召开的巴黎气候大会达成具有里程碑意义的《巴黎协定》,加速全球向清洁能源转型的进程,关于能源转型的国际发文数量呈现爆发式增长,研究广度和深度有了质的飞跃,体现学术研究的响应性。由于能源转型成为不可逆转的趋势,学者们聚焦能源转型可能给污染资产、传统能源巨头、劳动力市场和社会公平正义等[22-24]带来的挑战,研究转型过程中面临的新能源技术路线选择、能源市场价格管制与价格扭曲、历史建筑保护与节能降耗改造等难题[25-26],对如何推进能源转型提出可行的对策建议,包括实施经济政策工具、推进技术创新和健全能源基础设施等[27-28]。这一阶段学术成果的突出特征是研究领域多元且交叉,涉及地缘政治与能源外交、能源转型依赖的关键矿产、人工智能与能源转型等[29-32]不同学科角度。随着全球持续关注并且日益重视应对气候变化与能源安全,能源转型领域研究方兴未艾。
1.2 能源转型研究的学科分布
发文学科分布说明研究成果所属的学术领域和学科研究基础,反映研究视角和研究方法。能源转型是长期且复杂的系统工程,涉及政治、经济、环境和社会等多个领域,实现能源转型也必须通过综合的跨学科研究方法。因而,能源转型主题受到多学科研究者的关注,其中前3位的学科类别依次为环境科学与生态学、能源燃料学和商业经济学(图1),体现了人文社科和自然科学的交叉结合。
环境科学与生态学方面,因为人类大量消耗化石能源是气候变化与环境污染问题的根源,大量文献对能源转型的环境和气候影响,进而对健康的影响进行了广泛研究,对环境约束尤其是碳预算下能源转型路径进行探讨。再者,能源转型内涵、转型程度的衡量、能源技术研发和能源转型路径等都与各种能源的本质特征有关,属于能源燃料学科的研究范畴。有学者指出能源转型具有显性和隐性双重内涵,将导致能源部门以外的能源要素重构,显性转型通常由统计数据表征,如能源利用类型、结构、形式和空间格局等,隐性转型则涉及能源安全、地缘政治结构、能源权力、能源治理的转变[33]。在商业经济学的学科研究领域,能源转型与金融系统、能源贸易、能源价格和GDP等经济问题有密切关系,是经济学研究热点。
1.3 能源转型研究的发文主体
图2呈现了能源转型研究的重要国家(或地区)和发文作者,图中标签字体的大小与发文频次呈正相关,节点之间的连线粗细说明合作强度。从发文国家看,欧洲国家是能源转型的主要研究力量,中国、日本、印度和韩国等亚洲国家在该领域的学术影响持续增强,发文数量最多的为英国(324篇)、美国(315篇)、德国(296篇)、中国(275篇)与荷兰(179篇)。其中,最大的发文机构和资金资助来源为英国萨塞克斯大学与英国国家科研与创新署。英国是第一个制定温室气体减排目标的G20国家,也是全球最早以法律形式明确中长期减排目标的国家之一,率先完成工业革命和实现碳达峰,在能源转型中处于全球领先地位,能源转型的有益经验是众多学者关注点。Gransaull等[34]指出,与德国缺乏战略性气候立法导致跨部门协调难相比,英国《气候变化法案》中的突破性制度创新,如制定有法律约束力的碳预算、成立气候变化委员会、引入碳定价方案和推动电力市场私有化等,是电力部门脱碳的关键因素。但是,随着全球能源市场不确定性和不稳定性增强,英国如何权衡能源转型的速度和公正问题,统筹能源长期脱碳战略与能源可负担性、转型成本成为新的研究焦点[35]。
从发文作者看,核心发文作者呈现“局部聚集、整体扩散”趋势,英国萨塞克斯大学的Sovacool Benjamin K以27篇发文数量位居首位,是国际合作网络中最核心的发文作者,在能源转型学术研究中具有奠基意义,McCauley Darren、Hess David J和Baker Lucy等学者是研究的中坚力量,并且核心作者之间的合作较为紧密。以Sovacool为核心的研究团队认为能源转型是能源市场、能源技术和能源政策3大系统的协同转型,通过构建技术-经济、社会-技术和政治学三维的理论框架,从文化认知驱动、经济环境社会利益、包容性创新和转型风险等多个视角进行研究,尤为注重能源转型中的不公正问题[36-38]。他从分配正义、程序正义、全球正义、识别正义维度构建能源正义框架,指出有效能源政策的“3L”原则,大声(loud)、长期(long)、合法(legal),即提供明确价格信号并且鼓励公众参与、确保政策长期一致性和可预测性、得到强大的政治支持和法律约束,缺少任何一项都会偏离政策预期效果,对当前能源政策实施具有重要启示。
2 能源转型研究的经典文献与研究主题
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高被引文献和热点文献是研究该领域的高水平文献,在引导理论创新、识别重要研究主题和呈现学术影响力方面有重要意义。
2.1 高被引文献:技术创新与公平正义研究
高被引文献指过去10年所发表论文的被引用频次在该学科中排名前1%的论文,是能源转型研究领域具有重要影响的核心文献,最高被引量前10的文献见表1。被引次数排名第1的是加州大学伯克利分校学者Noah Kittner等发表于Nature Energy的论文[27],该文指出深度脱碳的能源体系必须有电池相关材料科学的技术进步以克服风能和太阳能的间歇性挑战,强调新兴储能技术在推动间歇性可再生能源替代化石能源的能源转型中至关重要,并且储能技术进步还能使太阳能、风能和储能的技术组合能够与基于化石能源的电力系统竞争,带来有成本效益的能源转型。Noah通过开发双因素学习曲线模型分析各类政策对储能技术成本下降的影响,提出以研发支出为主的政策组合和以电化学储能与机械储能为主的多技术路线竞相发展的政策建议。Nature Energy是能源燃料学科领域排名第1的权威期刊,2023年影响因子为49.7,体现对这篇论文的高度认可,超过700次的高倍引次数反映该主题受到较大关注。
伴随着新能源技术进步和产业发展,新能源发电上网成本已经可以与化石能源竞争,但是其间歇性和波动性给电力系统安全带来挑战。2024年《政府工作报告》首次提出发展“新型储能”,凸显这项技术的必要性和紧迫性。总体看,10篇高被引文献涉及的主题较为分散,其中3篇研究公平正义问题,2篇研究转型的环境经济效益,各1篇研究转型主体、时间、技术、特征和路径,再次反映能源转型是一个系统性过程。值得注意的是,前5大高被引文献中有3篇与能源转型中的公平正义问题相关,能源转型有哪些利益相关者、带来哪些成本和收益的不平均分配,以及如何实现公正的能源转型等都是研究焦点。
2.2 热点文献:能源转型的影响因素研究
热点文献指某学科近两年发表的论文中,按照最近两个月被引用次数排名进入前0.1%的论文,反映研究热点主题(表2)。总体看,涉及的主题较为集中,有8篇研究具体变量对能源转型的影响,2篇分别研究能源转型减碳效应和能源不可能三角。学者们较为关注能源转型的影响因素,实证检验环境法规、技术创新、资源禀赋和金融等是否影响以及如何影响能源转型,以期探讨和优化具体转型路径。以发表于Environmental Impact Assessment Review(环境科学与生态学领域JCR一区期刊,9/182)的Does environmental regulation improve energy transition performance in China?为例[39],通过计算各行业单位产出的污染排放强度以衡量环境规制,使用超效率数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)模型测算能源转型绩效,发现中国环境规制对提高能源转型绩效具有积极影响,且该影响在不同阶段、地区和行业具有异质性。
3 能源转型研究热点与前沿进展
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3.1 高频关键词与研究热点
关键词是对论文研究主题的高度概括,凝练和反映论文核心内容。使用CiteSpace关键词共现功能抽取文献关键词,观察共现频次和中介中心性两大指标,判断关键词在该研究主题中的活跃程度。图3所示的关键词共现图谱中,关键词节点的大小代表出现频次的高低,节点之间连线的粗细代表两个或多个关键词在同一篇文献的共现频次。2001年以来能源转型研究前10大高频关键词依次为能源转型(energy transition)、可再生能源(renewable energy)、政策(policy)、气候变化(climate change)、电力(power)、消费(consumption)、政治学(politics)、变革(innovation)、技术(technology)、治理(governance)。可以凝练为3个重大科学问题,基础与现状研究,包括关键词可再生能源、电力和消费;驱动因素研究,能源转型是政策、技术、治理和社会变革等多要素驱动的过程与结果;背景与视角研究,包括政治学、气候变化。
中介中心性是一个节点担任其他两个节点之间最短路径桥梁的次数,反映节点在网络中的重要程度和影响力。节点充当“中介”的次数越多,关键词中介中心性的数值越大。当数值超过0.1,表明关键词在该研究领域的影响力显著,是整个学科知识转化与焦点转移的重要桥梁[40],有粉色外圈的节点表示具有较高中介中心性。前10大高频关键词中,能源转型(0.33)、政策(0.25)和治理(0.23)的中心性较高,属于关键节点,表明在能源转型中,政府这“看得见的手”起着极为重要作用。因为能源转型推动能源公共垄断领域自由化私有化、能源市场一体化、能源系统分散化网络化等重大改革,带来政策协同、区域合作和市场监管等新的治理难题。
研究发现,能源转型中政府治理和制定政策面临4大困境:一是长期目标承诺与短期绩效的权衡,能源转型是长期过程,但是短期快速成效是长期转型能否得到支持的基础,现实中短期目标容易占据主导给长期利益相关方带来挑战;二是公平竞争与投资确定性的权衡,政府为转型的不同技术路线提供公平竞争环境,但是带来技术路线的不确定性,导致投资者质疑政策连续性;三是能源市场现有主体与新进入者的权衡,前者带来的更多是渐进式创新而不是结构性变革,在转型中是否纳入主导地位存在争议;四是推动能源技术创新的胡萝卜和大棒政策的权衡,管制型大棒政策十分有必要,但是实施过程中在政治上具有挑战性[41-42]。一些国家和地区由于制度不健全或体制机制低效,导致能源治理的“资源诅咒”困境,阻碍了能源转型。
3.2 关键词聚类与热点主题分布
为进一步明晰能源转型研究的主题分布,对相关文献的高频关键词进行聚类分析,利用CiteSpace软件将关系密切的高频关键词自动聚合生成聚类标签,由此形成不同的热点主题,各聚类按数值从小到大所包含的文献量依次递减。关键词聚类模块值(Q)为0.787 4>0.3,聚类结构显著,聚类平均轮廓值(S)为0.890 5>0.7,聚类结果可信。结合文献解读,根据子聚类标签内关键词的相似程度,将形成的20个聚类集群归纳为以下5大主题(表3)。
(1)能源转型的科学内涵,通过关键词可再生能源或可持续能源消费,以及支撑能源供应与消费的智能电网,界定能源转型内涵与表现形式。
(2)能源转型的综合效益。从减少生态足迹、加强能源安全、缓解能源贫困和推动可持续发展等多方面,评估能源转型的经济、环境和社会效益[43-44]。转型可能在短期给经济造成冲击,但是带来的可持续发展方式有利于长期经济增长。Liu等[45]发现能源转型促进可再生能源固定资本形成、提升劳动生产效率和促进产业结构优化升级,有利于中国共同富裕。
(3)能源转型的现实挑战,关键词主要为公众认可和能源正义。研究发现,由于新旧能源发展地区不完全匹配,转型对传统能源富集地区、传统能源供给模式、企业和消费者带来冲击,给公众带来就业和工作岗位损失[23],或转型初期引致能源、电力等相关物品价格上涨,不成比例地增加低收入人群能源支出收入比,带来成本与利益分配不公正[46]。这会影响公众对于可再生能源开发和利用的接受程度,进而决定公众在多大程度上支持能源转型,因此“自下而上”的包容性转型至关重要[47]。
(4)能源转型的推进策略。关键词包括法律、政府决策、能源政策等政府职能,以及金融发展和市场设计等市场机制。研究认为,征收污染税、减少化石燃料补贴[48]等都有利于能源转型,但是转型涉及利益集团博弈,传统能源生产商具有重要政治影响力,强有力的立法才能确保能源政策稳定性和延续性[49]。再者,市场机制在能源转型中发挥更稳定和持久的效果。通过合理设计使电力现货期货、碳排放权和绿色电力证书等市场发挥价格发现和风险管理功能,有效破解新能源波动问题,增加发电企业未来收益确定性,激发新能源电力投资需求[50],有助于以更低成本实现转型。然而,单一能效政策带来的反弹效应会加剧能源消费;单一能源或碳定价政策效果在短期难以显现,且对分配有不利影响;单一技术驱动而没有配合市场拉动政策,新能源技术只能停留在实验室[51],强调多政策组合的必要性。
(5)能源转型的研究视角,关键词为政治经济学、叙事和多层次研究视角。能源转型与公共治理、公平正义、利益分配等诸多政治议题相关,从政治经济学角度来研究非常有必要,稳定的经济社会宏观环境、公众对转型的高度共识、能源政策的稳定性透明性,都是转型的重要保障。能源转型的话语和叙事也是政治权利行使的一种体现,围绕转型公平性和经济可行性的叙事会影响能源政策接受程度和能源转型速度[52]。多层次研究视角则被广泛运用于能源转型研究,探讨微观利基、中观体制和宏观环境3个关联层面驱动因素,如何非均衡动态交互、彼此增强地动态演化且推动能源转型[53-54]。
3.3 关键词演化特征与研究趋势
关键词突现性指某一时段关键词在文献中出现次数快速增加,从时间维度反映关键词变化和热点动态演化过程。突现强度值越大,代表关键词在该时段内研究热度增长越快。可以发现,2001—2024年,关键词发生明显变化(表4)。其中,“城市city”突现开始时间最早,并且持续时间较长,表明能源转型研究早期更多以城市为研究对象。现代城市化社会严重依赖能源,城市是实现能源转型的主战场,能源问题本质上是城市问题,反之亦然[55-56]。“治理governance”“政治politics ”自2009年开始突现,反映出能源转型及其背后深层次的能源安全与气候变化问题,涉及政治利益与博弈,因此,政府视角是能源转型研究较早关注的领域。2014年以来,“技术转型technological transitions”“技术创新体系technological innovation systems”“海上风电offshore wind”“技术technology ”先后成为研究热点,体现技术创新在转型中的重要性,储能、氢能和CCUS等都是近年来学界和政界关注热点。
随着能源转型深入推进,其带来的社会公平公正问题、经济影响和社会变革得到学者重视,“公正转型just transition ”“增长growth”“社会变革social innovation ”成为能源转型研究的前沿进展。其中,“增长growth”相关研究在 2010年开始出现,研究时间跨度较长,由于化石能源依赖型经济特征,能源转型对经济增长的影响究竟是积极还是消极的,是学术界长期关注并且受到争议的重点议题。
总体看,凸显强度超过6.0 的关键词有“治理governance”“多层次视角multilevel perspective”“英国UK”“公正转型just transition”,说明这4个关键词是特定时期的研究热点和重点。
突现关键词的更迭变化能清晰反映能源转型领域学术发展的内在逻辑链条。表4显示,随着时间推进,关键词突现持续时间越来越短,能源转型研究领域热点更迭加快。研究对象从城市到国家,更多聚焦英国等欧洲国家,关注的驱动因素从政策驱动,深化为“技术-政策-公众”多元驱动,对能源转型目标的研究从单一能源目标,发展为能源转型-增长、能源转型-社会公正等多目标协同。
4 结论与展望
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能源转型是关乎全球气候变化、国家能源安全和新质生产力培育发展的重要议题,相关国际研究方兴未艾、内容丰富多元。通过揭示国际关于能源转型主题的研究现状、研究热点和发展趋势,有助于国内能源研究者了解能源转型研究进展和前沿,对于深化国内能源转型后续研究和政策制定具有借鉴和启示意义。
4.1 结论
借助CiteSpace可视化软件,对2001年以来WoS数据库中关于能源转型的SSCI论文进行文献计量分析,全景式地呈现能源转型的国际研究概貌和发展脉络,揭示该领域研究热点和趋势,主要结论如下。
(1)从时间脉络看,2001—2024年能源转型相关研究经历了萌芽探索、稳步增长和快速发展3个阶段,发文量呈持续上升趋势,2016年以来增长迅猛。并且涉及的学科领域广泛,呈现人文社科和自然科学交叉融合特点。
(2)从空间分布看,欧洲国家是能源转型的主要研究力量,英国、美国、德国、中国和荷兰是前5大研究国家,英国萨塞克斯大学与英国国家科研与创新署是发文量最多的研究机构和资金资助来源,与英国在能源转型中处于全球领先地位有一定关联。以Sovacool为代表的研究团队在能源转型研究中起到重大引领作用,尤为注重能源转型中的不公正问题。
(3)从经典文献看,高被引文献研究的主题较为多元,被引次数最高的是发表于权威期刊Nature Energy的研究储能技术创新的论文,前10大高被引文献中,研究公平正义问题(3篇)的文献最多;热点文献研究的主题则较为集中,聚焦于能源转型的影响因素,从政治、经济、文化和生态等多个维度实证研究各因素是否影响以及如何影响能源转型,进而探讨能源转型路径和对策。
(4)从关键词的频次、聚类分析和演化特征看,能源转型、政策和治理是核心关键词,研究如何更好发挥政府“看得见的手”在能源转型中的重要作用;能源转型的科学内涵、综合效益、现实挑战、推进策略和研究视角是5大热点主题分布,转型中的公平正义问题、与经济增长的互动关联、转型带来的社会变革是前沿热点和后续研究重点。
4.2 研究展望
能源转型有助于中国能源安全、引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革,以及应对全球气候变化,亟须深化相关理论研究和优化能源转型政策。结合上文,建议聚焦能源转型的多学科综合研究、多目标协同研究、关键技术突破研究和政府与市场合力驱动研究4个方面,丰富中国情境下的能源转型宏大叙事与理论体系。
(1)加强对能源转型问题的多学科综合研究,构建中国能源转型的原创理论和宏大叙事。能源转型属于能源学科研究领域,但是经济、生态和社会系统内在耦合性使得能源转型不再只是孤立的能源或技术问题,相关研究内容与边界不断扩大,与经济、政治、环境等领域的重要议题紧密结合,涉及能源安全、能源要素配置、能源技术变革、能源转型成本、环境社会效益、利益分配等复杂问题。因此,相关研究不仅要从能源学科视角展开,更要与政治学、经济学、社会学和环境科学等学科开展跨学科交叉研究,以跨学科方法多维度探索能源转型实践效果和拓展相关理论研究边界,提升中国能源转型研究的深度与广度,为中国能源转型提供更多的理论支持和实践方案。
(2)注重能源转型目标与中国式现代化多维度目标的协同推进研究,寻求能源不可能三角最优解。实现能源的供应安全、清洁低碳和价格低廉,确保普遍获得负担得起、可靠和可持续的能源服务是能源转型的最终目标,这与中国式现代化目标指向高度统一。从国内既有研究看,关于能源转型的驱动因素、转型带来的积极影响、能源安全与清洁低碳等主题已有相对丰富的研究成果,但是关于能源结构深刻变革短期可能带来的经济代价,对分配和就业的冲击,对公众在转型中的接受度和参与度,以及可能带来的区域和城乡能源不平等问题仍有待深入研究。未来理论研究要及时回应时代问题,考虑目标冲突导致的转型摩擦,提升研究成果的应用性,政策制定要强化中国式现代化多维度目标的协同推进。
(3)深化关于制约能源转型的技术问题研究,全面激发绿色新质生产力。纵览历史,每一次能源革命与科技革命、产业革命相伴到来,带来人类生产力的巨大解放与进步,能源转型必须依靠科技领域的创新突破,抢占新能源技术的战略制高点。党的十八大以来,中国形成推进能源革命的战略规划体系,能源技术变革取得举世瞩目的成绩,许多领域由“跟跑”向“并跑”“领跑”转变,正接近技术创新前沿,这也意味着对外依赖技术借鉴和引进的创新方式亟须转变。后续研究要聚焦突破面向前沿的科学和技术难题,识别新能源技术创新的驱动因素和制度阻碍,明晰能源转型的关键技术需求和最优技术路线。
(4)加强“有为政府”与“有效市场”合力驱动能源转型的最佳策略方案研究,探索中国式能源转型道路。能源属于关系国计民生的重要公共事业,从世界各国能源转型的经验看,成功的能源转型进程需要“政府之手”干预和“市场之手”调节。因此,未来研究既要加强对能源转型相关政策实施效果进行评价,研究可能存在的政策执行激励不足和协调困难导致的执行效率低等问题,探讨如何优化和完善现有政策,从法律法规、制度建设、财政支持等方面建立全面有效的政策框架;又要围绕能源市场化改革的多重影响,碳市场、绿证交易和用能权交易等市场的有效性,“电-碳”市场协同发展等关键问题展开分析,厘清能源转型中政府与市场的边界。
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2025年第25卷第11期
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  • 首发时间：2025-12-12
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