Article(id=1175385802986107261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1175385799072821512, articleNumber=1671-1807(2025)15-0066-08, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1738771200000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-06, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1758163413043, onlineDateStr=2025-09-18, pubDate=1754755200000, pubDateStr=2025-08-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1758163413043, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-09-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1758163413043, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1758163413043, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1175385799072821512, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, year='2025', volume='25', issue='15', pageStart='1', pageEnd='331', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1758163412111, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1758163801470, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1175387432229941342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1175385799072821512, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1175387432229941343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1175385799072821512, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=66, endPage=73, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1175385803908854168, articleId=1175385802986107261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, language=EN, title=Urban Gas Consumption Prediction Based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Network Model, columnId=1151876674645226399, journalTitle=Science Technology and Industry, columnName=Technology Innovation, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To address the limitations of traditional gas consumption prediction methods in dealing with complex time series data, a combined model (CNN-BiLSTM-Attention) integrating convolutional neural networks, bidirectional long short-term memory networks, and attention mechanisms is proposed for urban gas consumption prediction. An empirical analysis was conducted on the actual gas consumption situation of a city in the western region. The results show that the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination of this model are 19.14, 17.53 and 0.966 6 respectively, and its prediction effect is significantly better than that of other models. The research indicates that the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention network model provides an effective solution for urban gas consumption prediction and offers a scientific basis for urban energy management and decision-making.

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丁磊(1995—),男,四川自贡人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为智慧城镇燃气;

邓小毅(1975—),男,四川内江人,工程师,研究方向为燃气安全管理;

马玺(1981—),男,四川内江人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为信息项目管理;

郭乐华(1986—),男,四川资阳人,工程师,研究方向为燃气供销差管理;

龙海红(1982—),男,四川广安人,工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

廖春梅(1989—),女,四川遂宁人,工程师,研究方向为燃气输配技术;

黎国鑫(1995—),男,四川资阳人,初级工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

徐玲(1995—),女,四川南充人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为天然气管道集输防腐。

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丁磊(1995—),男,四川自贡人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为智慧城镇燃气;

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丁磊(1995—),男,四川自贡人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为智慧城镇燃气;

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邓小毅(1975—),男,四川内江人,工程师,研究方向为燃气安全管理;

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邓小毅(1975—),男,四川内江人,工程师,研究方向为燃气安全管理;

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马玺(1981—),男,四川内江人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为信息项目管理;

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马玺(1981—),男,四川内江人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为信息项目管理;

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郭乐华(1986—),男,四川资阳人,工程师,研究方向为燃气供销差管理;

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郭乐华(1986—),男,四川资阳人,工程师,研究方向为燃气供销差管理;

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龙海红(1982—),男,四川广安人,工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

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龙海红(1982—),男,四川广安人,工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

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廖春梅(1989—),女,四川遂宁人,工程师,研究方向为燃气输配技术;

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廖春梅(1989—),女,四川遂宁人,工程师,研究方向为燃气输配技术;

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黎国鑫(1995—),男,四川资阳人,初级工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

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黎国鑫(1995—),男,四川资阳人,初级工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

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徐玲(1995—),女,四川南充人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为天然气管道集输防腐。

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徐玲(1995—),女,四川南充人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为天然气管道集输防腐。

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${\overrightarrow{h}}_{t}$${\overleftarrow{h}}_{t}$分别为t时刻向前、向后BiLSTM隐藏层的值;ytt时刻BiLSTM层输出结果叠加后的值;st为概率分布;Softmax为激活函数;Ot为经过注意力机制层分配权重后的输出值

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ftitot分别为遗忘门、是输入门、是输出门;ct为记忆单元;$\otimes$表示逐元素相乘;⊕表示逐元素相加;σ为Sigmoid函数;xtt时刻的输入数据;htt时刻隐藏层;tanh为双曲正切激活函数

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模型 参数 设置
CNN层 卷积层数量 2
CNN层 卷积核大小 3×3
CNN层 卷积核数量 32/64
CNN层 池化步长 2
BiLSTM层 LSTM层数量 1
BiLSTM层 隐藏单元数 128
BiLSTM层 Dropout Rate 0.3
Attention层 Head Count 6
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CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型主要参数设置

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模型 参数 设置
CNN层 卷积层数量 2
CNN层 卷积核大小 3×3
CNN层 卷积核数量 32/64
CNN层 池化步长 2
BiLSTM层 LSTM层数量 1
BiLSTM层 隐藏单元数 128
BiLSTM层 Dropout Rate 0.3
Attention层 Head Count 6
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参数 设置
优化器 Adam
学习率(Learning Rate) 0.000 1
批量大小(Batch Size) 64
训练轮数(Epochs) 50
损失函数 MSE
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训练参数设置

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参数 设置
优化器 Adam
学习率(Learning Rate) 0.000 1
批量大小(Batch Size) 64
训练轮数(Epochs) 50
损失函数 MSE
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模型 RMSE MAE R2
BP神经网络 48.76 38.06 0.783 0
CNN 49.42 42.69 0.777 0
LSTM 50.07 42.76 0.771 2
BiLSTM 47.09 41.21 0.797 6
CNN-BiLSTM 41.85 34.31 0.840 1
CNN-LSTM-Attention 35.06 26.88 0.887 8
CNN-GRU-Attention 31.31 21.93 0.910 5
CNN-BiLSTM-Attention 19.14 17.53 0.966 6
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不同模型测试集误差对比结果

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模型 RMSE MAE R2
BP神经网络 48.76 38.06 0.783 0
CNN 49.42 42.69 0.777 0
LSTM 50.07 42.76 0.771 2
BiLSTM 47.09 41.21 0.797 6
CNN-BiLSTM 41.85 34.31 0.840 1
CNN-LSTM-Attention 35.06 26.88 0.887 8
CNN-GRU-Attention 31.31 21.93 0.910 5
CNN-BiLSTM-Attention 19.14 17.53 0.966 6
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日期 用户/万个 气温/℃ 雨日/d 降雨量/
mm
节假日/d
2025-01 22.81 9.50 1 17.80 9
2025-02 22.90 11.50 1 15.40 15
2025-03 22.99 16.50 2 36.70 9
2025-04 23.08 20.50 4 76.60 9
2025-05 23.17 23.50 7 91.60 12
2025-06 23.26 26.00 9 151.70 9
2025-07 23.35 28.00 13 220.00 9
2025-08 23.44 28.50 9 178.30 8
2025-09 23.53 24.50 8 129.90 10
2025-10 23.62 19.50 5 72.90 15
2025-11 23.71 15.00 2 29.80 9
2025-12 23.80 10.00 1 22.80 8
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2025年1—12月预测模型参数设置

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日期 用户/万个 气温/℃ 雨日/d 降雨量/
mm
节假日/d
2025-01 22.81 9.50 1 17.80 9
2025-02 22.90 11.50 1 15.40 15
2025-03 22.99 16.50 2 36.70 9
2025-04 23.08 20.50 4 76.60 9
2025-05 23.17 23.50 7 91.60 12
2025-06 23.26 26.00 9 151.70 9
2025-07 23.35 28.00 13 220.00 9
2025-08 23.44 28.50 9 178.30 8
2025-09 23.53 24.50 8 129.90 10
2025-10 23.62 19.50 5 72.90 15
2025-11 23.71 15.00 2 29.80 9
2025-12 23.80 10.00 1 22.80 8
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基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的城镇燃气用气量预测
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丁磊 1 , 邓小毅 1 , 马玺 1 , 郭乐华 1 , 龙海红 1 , 廖春梅 1 , 黎国鑫 1 , 徐玲 2
科技和产业 | 科技创新 2025,25(15): 66-73
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科技和产业 | 科技创新 2025, 25(15): 66-73
基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的城镇燃气用气量预测
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丁磊1, 邓小毅1, 马玺1, 郭乐华1, 龙海红1, 廖春梅1, 黎国鑫1, 徐玲2
作者信息
  • 1 内江华润燃气有限公司, 四川 内江 641000
  • 2 中国石油化工股份有限公司西南油气分公司采气二厂, 四川 阆中 637400
  • 丁磊(1995—),男,四川自贡人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为智慧城镇燃气;

    邓小毅(1975—),男,四川内江人,工程师,研究方向为燃气安全管理;

    马玺(1981—),男,四川内江人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为信息项目管理;

    郭乐华(1986—),男,四川资阳人,工程师,研究方向为燃气供销差管理;

    龙海红(1982—),男,四川广安人,工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

    廖春梅(1989—),女,四川遂宁人,工程师,研究方向为燃气输配技术;

    黎国鑫(1995—),男,四川资阳人,初级工程师,研究方向为燃气信息化技术;

    徐玲(1995—),女,四川南充人,硕士,初级工程师,研究方向为天然气管道集输防腐。

Urban Gas Consumption Prediction Based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Network Model
Lei DING1, Xiaoyi DENG1, Xi MA1, Lehua GUO1, Haihong LONG1, Chunmei LIAO1, Guoxin LI1, Ling XU2
Affiliations
  • 1 Neijiang China Resources Gas Co., Ltd., Neijiang 641000, Sichuan, China
  • 2 China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation Southwest Oil and Gas Branch Gas Production Plant 2, Langzhong 637400, Sichuan, China
出版时间: 2025-08-10
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为解决传统用气量预测方法在处理复杂时间序列数据时的局限性,提出一种结合卷积神经网络、双向长短期记忆网络和注意力机制的组合模型(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)用于城镇燃气用气量预测,并对西部某市的实际用气情况进行实证分析。结果显示,该模型的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和决定系数分别为19.14、17.53和0.966 6,预测效果显著优于其他模型。CNN-BiLSTM-Attention网络模型为城镇燃气用气量预测提供了一种有效的解决方案,为城市能源管理和决策提供了科学依据。
城镇燃气  /  用气量预测  /  卷积神经网络  /  双向长短期记忆神经网络  /  注意力机制

To address the limitations of traditional gas consumption prediction methods in dealing with complex time series data, a combined model (CNN-BiLSTM-Attention) integrating convolutional neural networks, bidirectional long short-term memory networks, and attention mechanisms is proposed for urban gas consumption prediction. An empirical analysis was conducted on the actual gas consumption situation of a city in the western region. The results show that the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination of this model are 19.14, 17.53 and 0.966 6 respectively, and its prediction effect is significantly better than that of other models. The research indicates that the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention network model provides an effective solution for urban gas consumption prediction and offers a scientific basis for urban energy management and decision-making.

urban gas  /  gas consumption prediction  /  convolutional neural network  /  bidirectional long short term memory  /  attention mechanisms
丁磊, 邓小毅, 马玺, 郭乐华, 龙海红, 廖春梅, 黎国鑫, 徐玲. 基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的城镇燃气用气量预测. 科技和产业, 2025 , 25 (15) : 66 -73 .
Lei DING, Xiaoyi DENG, Xi MA, Lehua GUO, Haihong LONG, Chunmei LIAO, Guoxin LI, Ling XU. Urban Gas Consumption Prediction Based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Network Model[J]. Science Technology and Industry, 2025 , 25 (15) : 66 -73 .
随着中国城镇化进程的快速推进和能源结构的持续优化调整,燃气因其清洁高效的特性,在城镇能源消费中的比重不断增加。准确预测燃气用气量不仅对燃气供应企业实现供需平衡、优化资源配置和降低运营成本具有重要意义,同时也为政府制定能源政策和规划基础设施提供了科学依据。然而,燃气用量受到经济发展水平、气候变化、人口流动、节假日效应等多重复杂因素的交互影响,使其预测成为一项具有挑战性的研究课题。
在现有的城镇燃气预测研究中,学者们采用了多种方法和模型进行分析预测,主要形成了3类预测方法体系:传统统计学方法、时间序列分析方法和神经网络算法[1]。传统统计学方法如指数平滑法、最小二乘法等[2-3],虽然具有计算简单、易于实现的优点,但难以处理数据的非线性关系,且对异常值敏感、易受多重共线性问题影响,在实际用气量预测中存在明显局限性。时间序列分析方法包括基于自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型和季节性自回归积分滑动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型等,其中ARIMA模型通过对时间序列数据进行差分处理,使其平稳化,然后利用自回归和移动平均的组合来进行预测;SARIMA模型则在此基础上增加了季节性因素的考虑。两个模型都能够有效捕捉时间序列中的趋势和季节性变化,但是对数据平稳性要求高且存在参数调节复杂等问题,因此在进行预测时,结果往往不够理想[4-8]
近年来,随着人工智能技术的快速发展,神经网络算法已经广泛应用于各个领域[9-11],并且在燃气预测研究方面因其在处理大规模数据和复杂模式识别方面的优越性,受到了广泛关注。Laib等[12]将一种基于多层感知器(multilayer perceptron,MLP)与长短期记忆神经网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)的组合模型用于用气量预测,解决了现阶段非线性预测方法的不足问题;Wei等[13]考虑14种天气因素影响,提出将主成分相关分析(principal component correlation analysis,PCCA)和长短期记忆神经网络结合用于燃气负荷预测,取得了良好的效果;王晓霞[14]考虑用气影响因素特征及数据时间序列特征,建立EEAE(经验模态分解)-LSTM模型用于燃气负荷预测;宋娟和廖尚泰[15]利用了多元线性回归的非线性特性和BP(back propagation)神经网络的时序特性,提出一种基于BP神经网络和多元线性回归的用气量预测模型,弥补了传统网格预测方法收敛性及适应性差的缺陷。高超伟[16]利用EWT(经验小波变换)方法去除燃气负荷数据中的噪声数据,并结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural networks,CNN)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)提出一种基于EWT-CNN-LSTM的组合预测算法。杨奕[17]提出一种基于特征选择上的粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)优化支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)重要参数的组合模型PSO-SVR用于短期天然气负荷预测,一定程度上解决了负荷预测影响参数选择困难问题。
尽管已有研究在燃气用气量预测方面取得了一定的成果,但仍存在若干亟待解决的问题。传统神经网络模型在处理复杂的时间序列数据时,往往难以有效捕捉局部特征和数据的长期依赖关系,且单一模型的预测性能易受数据特征和外部环境因素的影响,难以全面反映燃气需求的多维复杂性,导致预测精度受到限制。为此,本文提出一种基于卷积神经网络(CNN)、双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)和注意力机制的组合模型(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)用于城镇燃气用气量的预测,旨在提高城镇燃气用气量预测的准确性。
CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型由输入层、卷积神经网络层(CNN层)、双向长短期记忆神经网络层(BiLSTM层)、Attention层及输出层组成,其中CNN层用于提取燃气用气数据的局部特征,BiLSTM层用于捕捉序列数据的长期依赖关系,Attention层的注意力机制进一步强化关键特征的学习,模型网格结构如图1所示。
卷积神经网络(CNN)最初应用于计算机视觉领域,因其强大的数据特征提取能力,已然成为深度学习的重要组成部分。在燃气用量预测研究中,因用气量受多种影响因素影响,CNN层的引入,极大地丰富了模型的特征提取能力。CNN层的结构主要包括卷积层、池化层和全连接层。其中卷积层通过卷积操作,能够有效地识别和提取燃气用气数据中的局部特征,如用气量的突变、周期性变化、短期波动及影响用气量的各种特征参数;池化层对卷积层的输出数据进行采样,减少数据维度,从而降低计算复杂度;全连接层用于整合提取到的特征信息,形成一个全局特征,方便对数据进一步处理[18]。卷积过程如式(1)所示。
li=tanh(Wkxi+bi)
式中:li为卷积输出结果;tanh为激活函数;xi为输入值;Wk为卷积核权重;bi为偏置向量。
BiLSTM层由前向LSTM层和后向LSTM层组成[19]。LSTM网络是在传统循环神经网络(RNN)的基础上,引入了由遗忘门、输入门和输出门组成的门控机制,使得LSTM在接收上一层神经元输出的同时,能够选择性地保留有用信息,从而有效解决了RNN梯度消失的问题[20]。LSTM网格结构如图2所示,其具体算式如式(2)~式(7)所示。
ft=σ(Wfxt+Rfht-1+bf)
it=σ(Wixi+Riht-1+bi)
ot=σ(Woxt+Roht-1+bo)
zt=σ(Wzxt+Rzht-1+bz)
ct=ztit+ct-1ft
ht=Tanh(ct)☉ot
式中:WfRfWiRiWoRoWzRz为对应的连接权重矩阵;bfbibobz为对应的偏置向量;☉为哈达玛积。
BiLSTM网络在单一LSTM网络的基础上,添加了一个反向LSTM网络,能够同时利用过往的用气量数据(前向信息)和即将到来的数据(后向信息),从而可以更全面地理解时间序列的趋势和变化,更灵活地捕捉影响燃气用量的时序特征。BiLSTM网格结构如图3所示,其具体算式如式(8)~式(10)所示。
$\vec{h}=\tanh \left(\boldsymbol{W}_{x \vec{h}} \boldsymbol{x}_{t}+\boldsymbol{W}_{\vec{h} \vec{h}} \vec{h}_{t}+\boldsymbol{b}_{\vec{h}}\right)$
$\overleftarrow{h}=\tanh \left(\boldsymbol{W}_{x \hbar} \boldsymbol{x}_{t}+\boldsymbol{W}_{\hbar \hbar} \overleftarrow{h}_{t}+\boldsymbol{b}_{\overleftarrow{h}}\right)$
$y_{t}=\boldsymbol{W}_{\vec{h} y} \vec{h}+\boldsymbol{W}_{\vec{h} y} \overleftarrow{h}+\boldsymbol{b}_{y}$
式中:WxhWhhWhy为连接权重矩阵;bhby为偏置向量。
注意力机制(attention mechanism)的引入,可以对输入的特征数据赋予不同的权重,使得模型能够更加集中地关注有用的信息,减小了次要信息对模型的影响,从而提高模型的性能和效果,有效帮助模型做出更正确的决策[21-22]。Attention的计算过程如式(11)~式(13)所示。
st=tanh(Whkt+bh)
at=Softmax(st)
$o_{t}=\sum_{t} a_{t} h_{t}$
式中:st为概率分布;Wh为权重;kt为BiLSTM层输出yt对应的隐藏层状态值;at为权重系数;ot为经过注意力机制层分配权重后的输出值。
选取西南某市某片区2020年9月至2024年12月的真实用气数据(采样周期:月;单位:万m3)进行论证,同时收集了该时间段可能影响燃气用量的因素,包括用户数量、气温、雨日量、降雨量、节假日、气压等参数,如图4所示。
为了提高模型的学习程度和正确率,运用皮尔逊相关系数分析法对多个可能影响用气量的特征参数进行了相关性分析。皮尔逊相关系数取值范围为[-1,1],其值绝对值越大则说明两个变量间线性相关程度越强,一般认为,相关系数绝对值在0~0.2为不相关或极弱相关,0.2~0.4为弱相关,0.4~0.6为中等相关,0.6以上之间为强相关。并且系数大于0时,两者为正相关关系,系数小于0时,两者则为负相关关系[23]
皮尔逊相关系数分析法计算方法如式(14)所示。
$r=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(x_{i}-\bar{x}\right)\left(y_{i}-\bar{y}\right)}{\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(x_{i}-\bar{x}\right)^{2}} \sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-\bar{x}\right)^{2}}}$
式中:r为皮尔逊相关系数;n为样本数;xiyi为变量;$\stackrel{-}{x}$$\stackrel{-}{y}$为变量均值。
用皮尔逊相关系数法得到各因素与用气量相关性分析结果,如图5所示。筛选出与用气量具有中等以上相关性的参数:用户数量、气温、雨日量、降雨量、节假日等作为模型的特征参数,其中气温、用户数两个参数与用气量具有强相关性。
使用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)对模型预测结果进行评价,RMSE和MAE指标越小、R2越接近1,则模型的预测性能越优越。其计算式如式(15)~式(17)所示。
$\mathrm{RMSE}=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(\hat{y}_{i}-y_{i}\right)^{2}}$
$\operatorname{MAE}=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n}\left|\hat{y}_{i}-y_{i}\right|$
$R^{2}=1-\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(\hat{y}_{i}-y_{i}\right)^{2}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(\bar{y}-y_{i}\right)^{2}}$
式中:yi为用气量实际值;${\hat{y}}_{i}$为模型预测值;$\stackrel{-}{y}$为用气量均值。
模型设置训练集数据占比60%,测试集数据占比40%。为确保CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型的最优拟合效果,采用贝叶斯调参方法重复训练反复模拟以调整模型参数。调整后模型主要参数见表1,训练参数见表2
为全面评估CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型在城镇燃气用气量预测中的性能,选取多种具有代表性的机器学习模型进行对比分析,包括BP神经网络、卷积神经网络(CNN)、长短期记忆人工神经网络(LSTM)、双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)、CNN-BiLSTM、CNN-LSTM-Attention、CNN-GRU-Attention等模型。为确保实验结果的可靠性,降低模型训练过程中偶然性因素的影响,所有模型均进行了多次超参数调优和重复训练,最终记录下每种模型的最佳训练效果。不同模型测试集误差对比结果见表3,不同模型测试集拟合结果对比如图6所示,模型预测值与实际值的对比结果如图7所示。
从对比结果可以看出,CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型在所有评估指标上均展现出显著优势,尤其是在均方根误差(RMSE)和决定系数(R2)评价方面显著优于其他模型。这一结果表明,该模型在城镇燃气用气量预测研究中具有卓越的性能表现。其他模型虽然在一定程度上能够进行用气量预测,但均存在一定的局限性:BP神经网络模型实现简单,但在处理复杂非线性关系时表现不足,导致其在复杂样本上的预测精度较低;CNN模型在局部特征提取方面表现良好,但由于其无法有效捕捉时间序列数据的长期依赖性,限制了其在时序预测中的应用效果;BiLSTM模型能够较好地处理时间序列数据,充分利用双向信息,但其计算复杂度较高,训练时间较长,且容易出现过拟合现象;CNN-BiLSTM模型结合了CNN和BiLSTM的优点,提高了序列特征的提取效率,但在重要特征的学习能力上仍有待提升;引入Attention机制的CNN-LSTM-Attention和CNN-GRU-Attention模型在处理复杂数据时展现出更好的性能,但在关键信息的捕捉能力方面仍不及CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型。
采用CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型对该市目标片区2025年1—12月的用气量进行预测。为提高预测精度,系统整合了该地区历史气象数据、城市发展规划以及人口增长趋势等多维度影响因素,据此构建了2025年1—12月用气量影响因子参数体系(表4)。通过模型训练与验证,获得了较为理想的预测结果,其模型拟合效果对比及预测结果如图8所示。
预测结果显示,2025年该市该片区预计用气量将达到5 986.166万m3,较2024年用气量5 505.454万m3增长8.732%。并且用气量呈现出较为明显的季节性特征。冬季用气量显著上升,特别是在1月、2月及12月出现需求激增;夏季用气量则相对较低。这一预测结果为城市燃气管理提供了重要的决策依据,有助于燃气管理部门在需求高峰期合理调配资源,确保供气系统的安全稳定运行。此外,基于模型的预测结果,还可进一步开展燃气调度优化、价格策略制定等决策支持工作,从而提升城市燃气管理效率,为居民提供更加稳定可靠的用气服务。
综上所述,CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型在城镇燃气用气量预测中展现出卓越的性能,具有广阔的应用前景。随着数据采集技术的不断进步和模型算法的持续优化,该模型有望在更复杂的应用场景中发挥其优势,为城市燃气系统的智能化管理和可持续发展提供有力支持。
(1)通过Pearson相关系数分析法,确定用户数量、气温、雨日量、降雨量、节假日5个参数与城镇燃气用气量具有中等程度以上相关性,其中用户数量与气温对用气量影响最大。
(2)通过实验对模型进行训练,CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型RMSE、MAE、R2分别为19.14、17.53、0.966 6,预测效果远优于其他模型,说明CNN-BiLSTM-Attention模型用于城镇燃气用气量预测具有显著的优越性。
(3)现实情况还有很多不确定因素,如突发事件、城市发展、政策、工业生产计划等因素都会对用气量预测结果造成一定影响。因此在接下来的研究中,会考虑如何将这些因素加入运算模型中,同时将数据采样周期精确到天,进一步增加预测的精准度。
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2025年第25卷第15期
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  • 接收时间:2025-02-06
  • 首发时间:2025-09-18
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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-06
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    1 内江华润燃气有限公司, 四川 内江 641000
    2 中国石油化工股份有限公司西南油气分公司采气二厂, 四川 阆中 637400
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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