Article(id=1152977385008910555, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1152551050662785728, articleNumber=1671-1807(2025)09-0007-09, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1731254400000, receivedDateStr=2024-11-11, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752820829839, onlineDateStr=2025-07-18, pubDate=1746806400000, pubDateStr=2025-05-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752820829839, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752820829839, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752820829839, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1152551050662785728, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, year='2025', volume='25', issue='9', pageStart='1', pageEnd='371', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752719183840, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1753063306760, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1153994406857269276, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1152551050662785728, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1153994406857269277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, issueId=1152551050662785728, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=7, endPage=15, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1152977386007154928, articleId=1152977385008910555, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, language=EN, title=Analysis of Influencing Factors and Failure Probability of Production Salt Cavern Gas Storage Surface Subsidence in Multi-cycle Injection, columnId=1151876674645226399, journalTitle=Science Technology and Industry, columnName=Technology Innovation, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

As an important means of energy storage project, salt cavern storage will cause the cavern to contract due to the fluctuation of injection and extraction pressures, which in turn can lead to surface subsidence. Numerical simulation analysis has been conducted on the main influencing factors of surface subsidence of double cavity under different injection and extraction cycles, and it has been found that reducing the injection and extraction cycle can slow down the trend of surface subsidence. An analysis of the probability of cavern failure in the operation of a salt cavern storage with a 60 d injection and extraction cycle has been carried out. When the pressure fluctuation of the storage exceeds 1 MPa, the probability of cavern failure will exceed 20% after 30 a. Therefore, when designing the operating conditions of salt cavern, it is necessary to consider the impact of pressure fluctuations on surface subsidence and control the fluctuation range of pressure according to the design life of the storage.

, correspAuthors=Yifei YAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Shijin HOU, Junxiang XU, Xu LI, Xi SUN, Yao LÜ, Chitian LI, Yifei YAN), CN=ArticleExt(id=1152977434489115201, articleId=1152977385008910555, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146123222451335185, language=CN, title=多周期注采地下盐穴储气库地表沉降影响因素与失效概率分析, columnId=1151876674787832737, journalTitle=科技和产业, columnName=科技创新, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

盐穴储气库作为能源调峰的重要手段,其注采压力波动变化会导致储气库腔体收缩,进而引发地表沉降。针对不同注采周期下地表沉降的主要影响因素进行双腔体的数值模拟分析,发现注采周期的减少会降低地表沉降的发展趋势。对60 d注采周期的盐穴储气库运行中的腔体失效概率进行分析,发现储气库工作压力波动大于1 MPa时,储气库腔体失效概率在30 a后会超过20%。因此在盐穴储气库的工况设计时需要考虑压力波动对地表沉降的影响,按照储气库设计年限要求控制压力的波动区间。

, correspAuthors=闫怡飞, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
闫怡飞(1984—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,副教授,研究方向为地下储气库工程。
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侯世谨(1994—),女,山东菏泽人,硕士,工程师,研究方向为电力结构设计;

徐俊祥(1974—),男,山东宁津人,博士,正高级工程师,研究方向为电力工程设计;

李旭(1977—),男,山东济宁人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为建筑结构;

孙玺(1999—),女,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地下储气库工程;

吕耀(2002—),男,安徽六安人,硕士研究生,研究方向为电池热失控;

李炽天(2001—),男,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为管柱力学

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侯世谨(1994—),女,山东菏泽人,硕士,工程师,研究方向为电力结构设计;

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侯世谨(1994—),女,山东菏泽人,硕士,工程师,研究方向为电力结构设计;

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徐俊祥(1974—),男,山东宁津人,博士,正高级工程师,研究方向为电力工程设计;

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徐俊祥(1974—),男,山东宁津人,博士,正高级工程师,研究方向为电力工程设计;

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李旭(1977—),男,山东济宁人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为建筑结构;

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李旭(1977—),男,山东济宁人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为建筑结构;

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孙玺(1999—),女,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地下储气库工程;

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孙玺(1999—),女,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地下储气库工程;

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吕耀(2002—),男,安徽六安人,硕士研究生,研究方向为电池热失控;

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吕耀(2002—),男,安徽六安人,硕士研究生,研究方向为电池热失控;

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李炽天(2001—),男,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为管柱力学

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李炽天(2001—),男,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为管柱力学

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地层 天然重度/
(kN·m-3)
饱和重度/
(kN·m-3)
孔隙
泊松
弹性模
量/GPa
黏聚力
/kPa
摩擦角
/(°)
剪胀角
/(°)
泥岩 26 26 1 0.15 5.910 3 810 45.4 0
盐岩 20.4 20.4 0.02 0.30 8.846 2 800 15 10
夹层 23 23 1 0.16 3.850 900 30 0
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模型的岩石力学参数

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地层 天然重度/
(kN·m-3)
饱和重度/
(kN·m-3)
孔隙
泊松
弹性模
量/GPa
黏聚力
/kPa
摩擦角
/(°)
剪胀角
/(°)
泥岩 26 26 1 0.15 5.910 3 810 45.4 0
盐岩 20.4 20.4 0.02 0.30 8.846 2 800 15 10
夹层 23 23 1 0.16 3.850 900 30 0
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参数 A1 A2 N1 N2
取值 0.05 0.02 2.7 6.8
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盐岩的蠕变参数

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参数 A1 A2 N1 N2
取值 0.05 0.02 2.7 6.8
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方案 最大内压/MPa 最小内压/MPa 压差/MPa
方案1 11 2 9
方案2 12 5 7
方案3 14 8 6
方案4 16 12 4
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储气库注采压力模拟方案

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方案 最大内压/MPa 最小内压/MPa 压差/MPa
方案1 11 2 9
方案2 12 5 7
方案3 14 8 6
方案4 16 12 4
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工作压力/MPa 腔体最大位移/mm 地表最大沉降/mm
4.5~12.5 4 792.74 1 086
5.0~12.0 3 867.41 983
5.5~11.5 3 142.08 917
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不同工作压力下腔体最大位移和对应的地表最大沉降

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工作压力/MPa 腔体最大位移/mm 地表最大沉降/mm
4.5~12.5 4 792.74 1 086
5.0~12.0 3 867.41 983
5.5~11.5 3 142.08 917
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多周期注采地下盐穴储气库地表沉降影响因素与失效概率分析
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侯世谨 1 , 徐俊祥 1 , 李旭 1 , 孙玺 2 , 吕耀 2 , 李炽天 2 , 闫怡飞 2
科技和产业 | 科技创新 2025,25(9): 7-15
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科技和产业 | 科技创新 2025, 25(9): 7-15
多周期注采地下盐穴储气库地表沉降影响因素与失效概率分析
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侯世谨1, 徐俊祥1, 李旭1, 孙玺2, 吕耀2, 李炽天2, 闫怡飞2
作者信息
  • 1 山东电力工程咨询院有限公司, 济南 250014
  • 2 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院, 山东 青岛 266580
  • 侯世谨(1994—),女,山东菏泽人,硕士,工程师,研究方向为电力结构设计;

    徐俊祥(1974—),男,山东宁津人,博士,正高级工程师,研究方向为电力工程设计;

    李旭(1977—),男,山东济宁人,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为建筑结构;

    孙玺(1999—),女,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地下储气库工程;

    吕耀(2002—),男,安徽六安人,硕士研究生,研究方向为电池热失控;

    李炽天(2001—),男,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为管柱力学

通讯作者:

闫怡飞(1984—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,副教授,研究方向为地下储气库工程。
Analysis of Influencing Factors and Failure Probability of Production Salt Cavern Gas Storage Surface Subsidence in Multi-cycle Injection
Shijin HOU1, Junxiang XU1, Xu LI1, Xi SUN2, Yao LÜ2, Chitian LI2, Yifei YAN2
Affiliations
  • 1 Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute CORP., LTD., Jinan 250014, China
  • 2 College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China
出版时间: 2025-05-10
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盐穴储气库作为能源调峰的重要手段,其注采压力波动变化会导致储气库腔体收缩,进而引发地表沉降。针对不同注采周期下地表沉降的主要影响因素进行双腔体的数值模拟分析,发现注采周期的减少会降低地表沉降的发展趋势。对60 d注采周期的盐穴储气库运行中的腔体失效概率进行分析,发现储气库工作压力波动大于1 MPa时,储气库腔体失效概率在30 a后会超过20%。因此在盐穴储气库的工况设计时需要考虑压力波动对地表沉降的影响,按照储气库设计年限要求控制压力的波动区间。

盐穴储气库  /  地表沉降  /  压缩空气储能  /  多周期注采  /  失效概率

As an important means of energy storage project, salt cavern storage will cause the cavern to contract due to the fluctuation of injection and extraction pressures, which in turn can lead to surface subsidence. Numerical simulation analysis has been conducted on the main influencing factors of surface subsidence of double cavity under different injection and extraction cycles, and it has been found that reducing the injection and extraction cycle can slow down the trend of surface subsidence. An analysis of the probability of cavern failure in the operation of a salt cavern storage with a 60 d injection and extraction cycle has been carried out. When the pressure fluctuation of the storage exceeds 1 MPa, the probability of cavern failure will exceed 20% after 30 a. Therefore, when designing the operating conditions of salt cavern, it is necessary to consider the impact of pressure fluctuations on surface subsidence and control the fluctuation range of pressure according to the design life of the storage.

salt cavern gas storage  /  ground subsidence  /  compressed air energy storage  /  multi-cycle injection and production  /  failure probability
侯世谨, 徐俊祥, 李旭, 孙玺, 吕耀, 李炽天, 闫怡飞. 多周期注采地下盐穴储气库地表沉降影响因素与失效概率分析. 科技和产业, 2025 , 25 (9) : 7 -15 .
Shijin HOU, Junxiang XU, Xu LI, Xi SUN, Yao LÜ, Chitian LI, Yifei YAN. Analysis of Influencing Factors and Failure Probability of Production Salt Cavern Gas Storage Surface Subsidence in Multi-cycle Injection[J]. Science Technology and Industry, 2025 , 25 (9) : 7 -15 .
盐穴地下储气库作为一种大规模的人工气藏,为“碳达峰”“碳中和”的有效推进和清洁能源的安全供给起到关键作用[1-2]。压缩空气储能(compressed air energy storage,CAES)地下盐穴储库是基于盐穴储气库开发的一种基于可再生能源的发电站,由于可再生能源(太阳能,风能)的不确定性,注采压力的变化频率较传统的季节性储气库更高,井筒受循环交变载荷和热应力的影响更大[3]。同时注采压力的变化还受到电网调峰服务的变化的影响。中国地下盐穴地质环境复杂,储气库注采井筒管柱服役工况苛刻,长期运营过程中,盐岩将受到地层蠕变、井筒压力及温度变化等多种因素的共同作用,导致腔体变形和盐穴的体积收缩,进而触发地表沉降[4],严重时甚至可能导致储库区域出现大规模的地表塌陷,甚至造成井筒泄漏等风险问题[5]
典型的储气库注采井服役年限至少为30 a[6]。针对储气库长期运营过程中产生的地表沉降问题,国内外很多学者对沉降机理和沉降模型进行了研究。Knothe[7]根据压缩过程中的时间与地面沉陷之间的关系,于1952年提出了Knothe模式,该模式在一定时间内将地面沉降与地面沉降的差值与地面沉降速率呈线性相关。Schober等[8]、Sroka和Hejmanowski[9]将空间会聚效应引入到地面沉降研究中,并在此基础上对Knothe模型进行修正,构建了适用于地面沉降的Sroka-Schober模型,但该方法存在着上覆岩层时间参数与地层相对收敛速度难以精确求解等问题。Fokker[10]在2002年首次提出了一种新的基于 Fokker模型的盐穴地下水位预测方法,该模型能够综合考虑多个地层特性,从而简化了盐穴地下水位的计算。国内学者采用数值模拟方法对地表沉降的规律进行了分析。屈丹安等[11]针对金坛盐穴地下储气库,基于开采沉降的分层传递原理,对盐穴20 a收缩引起的地表沉降及盐穴报废垮塌的风险进行了预测分析,基于动态预测模型对地表任一点任意时刻的沉降值进行预测。王志荣等[12]针对多夹层储气库的地质特征,分别对单腔、双腔和群腔的地表沉降规律进行了数值模拟分析,得到了地表沉降的分布规律。黄远[13]以成家庄煤矿实际生产过程为研究模型,利用数值模拟对采空区的发展演化过程进行分析,并对开采结束后的顶板岩层沉降量进行了预测。刘冰冰等[14]基于Eickemeier 模型对单个盐腔及多个盐腔地表沉降规律进行研究,对埋深、蠕变、多腔叠加等影响因素进行了对比分析,并根据此模型预测了国内某盐穴储气库群运行 30 a的地表最大沉降量。Zheng等[15]基于Peck模型对徐州地区由采空区所引起的地表沉降进行了分析。祖大明等[16]基于概率分法,对鄂尔多斯采空区的地表沉降进行预测,并根据其预测结果对煤矿采空区上地面输电塔的地基稳定性进行定性评估。张幸等[17]通过适用盐岩蠕变变形的幂指数模型对储气库运营中盐岩腔引发的地面沉降进行模拟,并对邻近铁路运营可能产生的影响进行分析。陈锋等[18]运用修正的地表沉降预测模型分析盐穴储气库的沉降,基于腔体体积收缩提出了储气库地面沉降安全预警阈值。陈西西等[19]分析了造腔参数对盐穴造腔腔体控制的影响规律,对双腔间距等参数的选取给出了建议措施。
本文结合实际储气库工作模式的压力波动的特点,研究在不同注采周期条件下,影响腔体收缩和地表沉降的主要因素,给出了考虑实际注采压力波动变化的条件下,储气库长期工作下地表沉降的失效概率,以对工作压力波动进行针对性的控制。
盐岩储气库的地表沉降起初通常是由于盐穴开挖引发的空洞导致上覆岩层的变形导致。但长期而言,这些空洞会因盐岩蠕动和注采压力的变化而自行收缩,从而导致持续的地表沉降。盐穴储气库的地表沉降特点主要包括:①沉降的发展趋势。盐岩地下储气库随着运行时间的增加,洞室周边盐岩发生蠕变变形,使其体积不断缩小,整体呈现向下的变形趋势,但会有水平方向的扩展。②与盐穴腔体体积变化相关。腔体的体积收缩变形是库区地表持续沉降的主要原因之一。地表沉降与地下盐穴腔体的体积收缩比例成正比。腔体体积的减小会直接影响上覆岩层的稳定性,诱发地表沉降。③沉降量与上覆岩层特性相关。上覆岩层的岩性越好,储气库顶板越不易发生弯曲破坏,有利于上覆岩层的稳定性。上覆盖层厚度越大,其承载力也会越强,地层会越稳定。整体沉降量不会超过腔体收缩变形的体积。
因盐岩蠕变而导致地面沉降的因素相当复杂,盐穴储气库地表沉降模型如图1所示。根据地表沉降变形可以计算出沉降区域体积的大小,沉降体积S的计算公式为
$S=\frac{\pi \Delta Z{R}^{2}}{3}$
影响储气库地表沉降的因素如下。
(1)储气库腔体几何特征。一个合理的腔体几何形态能够显著影响其周围土壤的应力分布,从而减少甚至避免地表的沉降。具体而言,腔体的几何形状,包括其高度与宽度之比,以及直径大小,都是决定其对地表沉降影响的关键因素。
(2)地质结构。腔体之间的距离与对地表沉降产生耦合作用的影响,在实际盐穴储气库群的设计中需要考虑腔体之间的距离与储气库腔体收缩变形和地表沉降的耦合作用,两个腔体的二维平面模型如图2所示。产生的地表沉降分布如图3所示。整体盐穴在某个特定位置的地表沉降是各个盐穴在该处产生的地表沉降的叠加作用。
(3)地质构造与盐岩地质力学。地质构造如断层、节理等也会影响盐岩的蠕变和地表沉降。这些地质构造可能使盐岩的力学性质发生变化,导致盐岩的蠕变不均匀或加速。同时不同地区盐岩的成岩条件不同,其物理力学性质也会有所差别。盐岩内部可能含有气泡、泥质夹层、有机质等其他杂质,这些都会影响其蠕变特性,进而影响地表沉降。
盐岩地下储气库的埋深范围较大,不同的埋深导致储气库周围地应力分布不同,盐岩的蠕变效应则不同。地应力的差异可能导致盐岩蠕变不均匀,间接影响到地表沉降。
评估盐穴地下储气库的安全和稳定性,需要同时考虑盐岩的地质特征和具体的工程经验,其中地表沉降是引起储气库腔体坍塌或腔体失稳的一个指标。储气库运行的工程经验表明腔体顶部和腰部的位移是衡量腔体稳定性的重要指标。根据潜江储气库工程经验,腔体最大位移不宜大于盐穴直径的10%,以避免对围岩造成破坏。考虑到压缩空气储能等多周期注采工况下的较高的气体注采速率对腔体的影响,提出了不超过盐穴直径的8%的最大位移阈值。
基于双腔盐穴产生的地表沉降问题,结合国内典型盐穴储气库井改建CAES电站的实际工程地质情况,建立盐穴储气库的二维平面地质力学模型,从上到下依次为泥岩、盐岩和泥岩3个地层。盐岩层中设置一个20 m厚的泥岩夹层,盐腔中心点处距地表1 000 m,如图4所示。土体的本构模型基于材料的岩石力学性质选取,泥岩和泥岩夹层采用摩尔-库仑模型,盐岩采用Norton本构模型扩展的N2PC-MCT蠕变模型,通过引入摩尔-库仑屈服准则,改进的Norton本构模型公式为
$\boldsymbol{\epsilon }_{cr}=A\boldsymbol{\sigma }^{n}={A}_{1}\boldsymbol{\sigma }^{{N}_{1}}+{A}_{2}\boldsymbol{\sigma }^{{N}_{2}}$
式中:$\boldsymbol{\epsilon }_{cr}$为蠕变速率:$\boldsymbol\sigma $为有效应力张量;A1A2为和黏度相关的土壤材料参数;N1N2为蠕变应力指数。模型的岩石力学参数和盐岩的蠕变参数见表1表2
仿真分析基于PLAXIS 2D地质力学软件进行,根据实际工程地质条件建立二维数值模型。计算模型大小为1 500 m(长)×1 540 m(深)。水平x方向设置为法向约束,垂直y方向底部设置为固定约束,垂直顶部设置为自由,观察地表的变形情况。盐穴腔体的内压力按照周期变化的规律按照时间步施加,两个腔体的压力-时间步按照同步处理。为保证模型计算的精度与速度,在储气库腔体附近及地表处的网格划分较为密集,其他地方网格划分较为粗糙。双腔盐岩储气库模型尺寸及网格划分情况如图5所示。
在一个周期内,对储气库内最大、最小压力采用4种模拟方案,见表3。层状盐岩储气库的注采压力变化速率对于储气库地表沉降和腔体的蠕变收缩有着较大的影响,在研究盐穴注采压力变化的影响同时,考虑多周期注采的情况,分别对注采周期为90、60、 1 d的情况进行分析,其中针对方案1的注采压力变化情况如图6所示。
以方案2设置的注采压力参数和60 d注采周期为例,选取腔体间距为50 m(1倍洞跨长)、75 m(1.5倍洞跨长)、100 m(2倍洞跨长)和150 m(3倍洞跨长)来研究不同时间段内地表最大沉降量随腔体间距变化的影响。其中,100 m腔体间距下蠕变1 a的地层整体变形云图、腔体位移云图和地表沉降位移云图如图7所示,可以看到腔体顶部的收缩变形明显,腔体底部的收缩较少。随着腔体的收缩变形,地表随之出现了对应的沉降现象,两腔体中间的位置沉降最大,随着距离中心点距离的增加地表沉降的幅度随之降低。
图8比较了腔体间距50 m和100 m的地表不同采样点的沉降变化趋势,可以看到地表最大沉降点均出现在两个腔体之间的中心点的位置。图9给出了最大地表沉降值与腔体间距的关系,由图可见,在腔体间距小于100 m时,地表沉降随腔体间距的增大而迅速减小。这是因为腔体间距较近时,储气库的地表沉降产生了叠加效应。当间距大于100 m后,可以发现这种效应的作用减弱,1、5、10、15 a的地表沉降分别稳定在176、262、415、521 mm左右。
工况设计参数不变,选取腔体埋深为950、1 000、1 050 m来研究不同时间段内地表最大沉降量随腔体埋深变化的规律。图10比较了950 m和1 050 m的地表沉降分布随时间的变化趋势对比,可以看到随着埋深的增加,地表沉降也对应增大,随着时间的增加进行地表各点沉降的增加趋势基本相同。地表最大沉降值随腔体埋深增加的关系如图11所示,在腔体埋深小于1 000 m时,地表最大沉降量随腔体埋深的增大而明显减小,这是因为随着腔体埋深的增加,上覆岩层的厚度增加,且在较深的埋深下,上覆岩层的重量和压力分布更均匀,能够更有效地承载地下腔体所产生的空间效应,减少了地表的沉降量。当腔体埋深大于1 000 m时,随着腔体埋深的增大,地表最大沉降减小速率逐渐降低,1、5、10、15 a的地表沉降分别稳定在172、257、433、589 mm左右。
考虑注采周期分别为1、60、90 d的多周期注采工况,以地表沉降变形为研究对象,研究注采运行1 a后,各方案多周期注采下地表离中心点不同间距下的地表沉降量。地表中心点随时间变化的沉降趋势如图12所示。可以看到随着注采周期的减少,腔体收缩与扩张次数增加,但整体地表沉降趋势降低,随着注采周期的增加,地表沉降有增加的趋势,注采周期60 d和90 d的变形有起伏,周期1 d时沉降整体明显减少。注采周期1、60、90 d运行1 a后地表中心点的沉降分别为141.8、153.6、158.6 mm。
图13给出了运行1 a后距离中心点(两腔体的中央位置)不同距离的地表各采样点纵向变形分布情况。随着注采周期减少,注采频率增加,地表沉降有减少的趋势。距离中心点150 m以内,地表沉降减少趋势不大,超过150 m后,地表沉降的趋势逐渐减弱,距离地表500 m时地表沉降减少了7~9 mm。随着注采周期天数的降低,注采频率增加,注采压力的波动增大,整体上减缓了由于盐岩蠕变引发的腔体收缩的速率,地表沉降的趋势也随之降低。
由于实际储气库工作过程中消费与供给的不确定性,使得注采压力的变化并不是按照设定的周期规律变化的,考虑储气库实际注采压力的波动性对地表沉降的影响,可以对不同工况对储气库的地表沉降的失效影响进行分析,在参数不确定的基础上分析储气库运营期间的失效风险概率。
基于盐穴储气库模型,考虑腔体间距100 m,埋深1 000 m,注采周期为60 d,注采压力为方案2,工作压力波动变化条件下腔体收缩和地表沉降之间的关系,即最小工作压力波动范围为4.5~5.5 MPa,最大工作压力波动范围为11.5~12.5 MPa。按照注采压差的大小压力波动由小到大分为5.5~11.5、5~12、4.5~12.5 MPa, 比较这3种工况条件下30 a后盐穴腔体的最大变形和地表沉降的关系,具体见表4。结果表明较大的压力波动区间会导致地表沉降值的增加,对应的腔体收缩变形也有所增加。根据这3种工况可以得到腔体收缩变形和地表沉降之间的关系,如图14所示。
地表沉降现象通常是由地下腔体在周围介质的挤压下发生的蠕变收缩作用所引起的。随着盐岩收缩引起腔体的收缩变形,地表沉降也随之增加。注采压力波动性大,会增加腔体蠕变收缩的趋势,进一步加剧了地表的沉降。实际地表沉降的影响因素可能还包括断层等其他地质因素的影响,需要结合实际情况做进一步分析。
由于腔体变形是评价地下结构稳定性的常用指标,在实际工程和模拟计算中易于监测。结合工作压力变化模型,选择盐腔的变形作为失效指标,对压力波动条件下地表沉降的失效概率进行分析。根据1.3节的标准依据,盐穴的大位移一般发生在盐穴顶部(A点)和盐穴腰部(B点)(图15),选择这两点为采样点。按照A点和B点的位移达到腔体直径的8%作为失效条件,采用蒙特卡洛法进行分析。盐穴直径为50 m,因此失效变形阈值为50×0.08=4 m。
蒙特卡洛法基于基本事件的发生具有随机性特征,通过设置基本事件的初始概率,用大量的数值实验分析事件本身发生概率对目标事件的影响。
根据已经计算得到的压力差和腔体最大位移的数据关系,可以根据运行30 a的储气库腔体最大位移随压差的变化曲线拟合出函数,如图16所示。其中,实线为平滑线,虚线为三次多项式拟合出的函数曲线。
将拟合出的函数与腔体的最大位移阈值(4 m)作差,得到储气库失效概率的功能函数Z,如式(3)所示,其中X为最大最小工作压力差值。
$Z=G\left(X\right)=48.864{X}^{3}-743.288{X}^{2}+3 828.856X-43 627.472$
假设该最大工作压力服从均值为12、标准差为0.25的正态分布;最小工作压力服从均值为5、标准差为0.25的正态分布。通过MATLAB编写程序,分析由于压力不确定性造成的储气库运营期间的失效风险概率进行蒙特卡洛模拟。模拟次数设置为106次,根据腔体最大位移作为评价指标,可以计算出有压力波动对腔体失效概率的影响。考虑工作压力在5~12 MPa变化,最大最小压力波动0.5 MPa(±0.25 MPa)的情况下,储气库运营30 a后的失效风险概率大致为4.22%。置信度按照95.45%,即两个标准差的大小设置,设置不同的压力波动范围。图17给出了在不同的压力波动下,储气库运营30 a后的失效概率的变化趋势。
图17可知,在工作压力的不确定性服从基本的正态分布规律的基础上,仅从腔体最大位移评价指标考虑,储气库失效风险概率随压力波动范围的增大呈现线性增大的趋势,当压力波动超过1 MPa时,失效风险概率会接近20%。为了减少压力波动产生的盐穴腔体失效情况,需要考虑设计注采过程中的压力变化情况,对储气库的运营参数进行动态调整,并采取相应的预防措施。
针对多周期注采条件下的盐穴储气库地表沉降问题,通过数值模拟仿真的方法研究了相关主要影响因素和失效概率,得出如下结论。
(1)地表沉降随着腔体间距的增加而减小,随着腔体埋深的增加而减少。注采周期为60 d时,腔体间距大于100 m,埋深大于1 000 m时,地表沉降变化趋势趋于稳定。
(2)注采频率的增加会减少腔体的收缩和地表沉降的发展趋势,随着注采周期天数的降低,地表沉降的整体趋势放缓,1 d 1次注采的1 a后的地表沉降比1 a 6次注采和1 a 4次注采的沉降略低,距离中心点不同距离的沉降减少趋势相似。实际沉降趋势还需要考虑高频注采引发的温度变化的影响。
(3)以腔体最大位移超过阈值8%作为储气库失效的标准,分析实际注采压力波动下的储气库腔体失效概率。当压力波动超过1 MPa时,30 a后的失效概率会超过20%。在进行储气库工况的设计时,需要根据储气库设计工作年限适当增加设计参数的安全系数,以考虑压力波动对加剧地表沉降以及储气库腔体变形失效的影响。
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2025年第25卷第9期
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  • 首发时间:2025-07-18
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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-11
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山东电力工程咨询院有限公司项目(37-k2023-041)
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    1 山东电力工程咨询院有限公司, 济南 250014
    2 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院, 山东 青岛 266580

通讯作者:

闫怡飞(1984—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,副教授,研究方向为地下储气库工程。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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total species (%)

Genus
种数
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species
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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