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    如果人工通用智能(AGI)真的达到人类水平,人工智能(AI)的发展会随之放缓,还是继续向人工超级智能(ASI)推进?

    . AGI后AI会走向超级智能吗. 科技导报, 2026 , 44 (12) : 11 -11 .
    . Science & Technology Review, 2026 , 44 (12) : 11 -11 .
    如果人工通用智能(AGI)真的达到人类水平,人工智能(AI)的发展会随之放缓,还是继续向人工超级智能(ASI)推进?
    2026年6月10日,Google DeepMind研究人员Tim Genewein等在arXiv平台试图为这一问题画出一张技术路线图。
    研究人员对2个概念作了较为宽泛的界定:AGI是指在大多数认知任务上达到人类中位水平的通用系统;ASI的门槛则高得多,它需要在几乎所有与人类活动相关的任务和领域中,超过由大批专家组成、经过良好协调的人类团队。
    报告提出,从AGI走向ASI至少存在4条可能路径。第1条是继续“放大”:增加算力、模型规模、数据量和算法效率,让已有技术路线持续推进。第2条是算法范式转变,即在现有预训练、后训练、推理扩展和工具调用之外,出现新的学习与推理机制。第3条是递归自我改进:如果AI能够大规模参与AI研究,帮助设计更好的模型、数据、训练方法和芯片系统,这些改进又可能反过来制造更强AI。第4条路径则来自多智能体集体。ASI未必是一个单一“超级大脑”,也可能来自大量AGI智能体的组织化协作,通过分工、市场、层级结构和高带宽通信形成新的集体智能。
    报告由此提出另一项难题:当AI超过人类专家后,人们该怎样衡量它是否还在进步?依赖人类答案的测试会逐渐饱和,也难以区分不同水平的超人系统。作者建议研究多智能体竞争与合作测试、由AI自动生成题目的“出题者—解题者”评测,以及经济生产率、资源效率等间接指标。
    (来源:预印本平台arXiv)

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    小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
    多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
    红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
    小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
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