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一条河流中究竟有多少污染物在共同发挥作用?在现实水环境中,农药、药物、工业化学品和生活源污染物往往不是单独出现,而是以复杂混合物的形式同时存在。过去,环境风险评估通常习惯先看单一物质浓度是否超过安全阈值,再对少数重点污染物分别管理。但在真实流域中,多个看似“未超标”的化学物质叠加在一起,仍可能对水生生物构成风险。

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    一条河流中究竟有多少污染物在共同发挥作用?在现实水环境中,农药、药物、工业化学品和生活源污染物往往不是单独出现,而是以复杂混合物的形式同时存在。过去,环境风险评估通常习惯先看单一物质浓度是否超过安全阈值,再对少数重点污染物分别管理。但在真实流域中,多个看似“未超标”的化学物质叠加在一起,仍可能对水生生物构成风险。

    . 用贝叶斯求解河流复合污染难题. 科技导报, 2026 , 44 (11) : 10 -10 .
    . Science & Technology Review, 2026 , 44 (11) : 10 -10 .
    一条河流中究竟有多少污染物在共同发挥作用?在现实水环境中,农药、药物、工业化学品和生活源污染物往往不是单独出现,而是以复杂混合物的形式同时存在。过去,环境风险评估通常习惯先看单一物质浓度是否超过安全阈值,再对少数重点污染物分别管理。但在真实流域中,多个看似“未超标”的化学物质叠加在一起,仍可能对水生生物构成风险。
    2026年6月7日,挪威水研究所S. Jannicke Moe、丹麦Hugin Expert等机构研究人员在bioRxiv发表预印本,提出一种面向流域尺度化学混合物风险的概率建模方法,尝试把“鸡尾酒效应”纳入更可计算、可比较的风险框架。
    复合污染评估的难点在于,环境中的化学组合几乎无穷无尽,而实验室不可能逐一测试所有混合物毒性。生态毒理学中常用2种基本思路估算混合效应:一种是“浓度相加”,即认为作用机制相近的物质可按毒性贡献相加;另一种是“独立作用”,即认为不同物质可能通过不同机制分别造成效应。前者通常更保守,后者更适合描述作用方式不同的污染物。但在流域管理中,污染物既可能来自不同来源,也可能分属杀菌剂、除草剂、杀虫剂等不同类别,单靠某一种算法容易低估或高估总体风险。
    研究团队开发的贝叶斯网络模型,将浓度相加和独立作用2类概念结合起来,用概率而不是单一数值描述风险。模型以风险商为核心指标,即预测环境浓度与保护性毒性阈值之间的比值;当风险商超过设定阈值时,模型给出发生风险的概率。这样的设计使研究人员可以在单一物质、物质类别和总体混合物3个层级上同时估算风险,并把空间位置、季节变化、污染物类别和模型不确定性纳入同一框架。
    在试点案例中,研究团队以比利时流域为对象,纳入15种农药,覆盖杀菌剂、除草剂和杀虫剂3类物质,并按流域区、月份和季节计算复合暴露风险。相比传统“一个污染物对应一个风险值”的方式,该方法更像一张动态风险地图:它不仅能判断某一地区、某一季节总体风险是否升高,还能追踪到底是哪类化学品、哪些单体物质对风险贡献最大。
    (来源:bioRxiv预印本)

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    2种不同金属材料的力学参数

    Family
    属数
    Number of
    genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of
    total species (%)

    Genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of total
    species (%)
    鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
    小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
    多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
    红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
    小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
    光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
    红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
    栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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