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在沙尘暴、野火烟尘和城市雾霾等环境事件中,预报速度往往直接关系到预警的提前量和防控的主动性。长期以来,全球气溶胶预报主要依赖复杂的物理数值模式:要同时计算颗粒物的排放、输送、化学转化和沉降过程,既“费算力”,也容易受参数化方案和初始场误差影响。

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(图片来源:中国气象局官网)

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    在沙尘暴、野火烟尘和城市雾霾等环境事件中,预报速度往往直接关系到预警的提前量和防控的主动性。长期以来,全球气溶胶预报主要依赖复杂的物理数值模式:要同时计算颗粒物的排放、输送、化学转化和沉降过程,既“费算力”,也容易受参数化方案和初始场误差影响。

    . 预测沙尘暴只需8台显卡. 科技导报, 2026 , 44 (5) : 10 -10 .
    . Science & Technology Review, 2026 , 44 (5) : 10 -10 .
    在沙尘暴、野火烟尘和城市雾霾等环境事件中,预报速度往往直接关系到预警的提前量和防控的主动性。长期以来,全球气溶胶预报主要依赖复杂的物理数值模式:要同时计算颗粒物的排放、输送、化学转化和沉降过程,既“费算力”,也容易受参数化方案和初始场误差影响。
    中国气象科学研究院车慧正、张小曳等联合国内外团队,推出全球首个气溶胶—气象耦合人工智能预报系统AI-GAMFS,标志着气溶胶预报开始从“超算驱动”加速迈向“AI驱动”。2026年3月5日,相关研究成果发表于《Nature》。
    传统物理模式的核心逻辑是“还原论”,即将大气过程分解为无数物理方程。而AI-GAMFS体现了“系统论”的思想,利用神经网络将悬浮颗粒物与大气的热力、动力要素作为一个整体进行非线性建模。模型的骨干网络将大气状态视为一个连续的3D时空张量。这种设计允许模型同时处理全球尺度的大气环流规律和局部尺度的污染演变特征。
    与传统模式将气溶胶与气象要素分开计算不同,AI-GAMFS实现了气溶胶-气象因子的深度耦合预报。模型分析了包括温度、风速、气压、湿度、降水等在内的42~44种核心气象变量,以及12种气溶胶组分变量。这种动态关联机制能够更精准地模拟气溶胶的生命周期。例如,模型通过学习发现,特定湿度环境会加速二次硫酸盐的生成,而降水强度的非线性变化直接决定了气溶胶的湿沉降效率。
    深度学习模型在进行自回归迭代预报(即用前一时刻的输出作为下一时刻的输入)时,往往会面临严重的误差累积问题,导致预报时效越长,精度下降越快。为解决这一难题,AI-GAMFS团队提出了一种创新的“接力预报策略”(Relay Forecasting Strategy)。团队训练了4个具有不同预报步长(3、6、9、12 h)的基准模型。在进行5天(120 h)的滚动预报时,系统会优先调用大步长模型进行跳跃式计算,从而显著减少了迭代次数。AI-GAMFS的成功,最终建立在“大数据”与“大算力”的深度融合之上。模型的训练采用涵盖1980—2022年共计42年的全球气溶胶再分析资料(主要基于MERRA-2数据集),总计包含超过120000个时次的大气状态。这些数据记录了过去数10年间全球范围内发生的各类典型环境气象事件,包括大规模火山爆发、超强沙尘暴以及跨洲际的野火烟尘输送过程。
    虽然模型的训练过程极其耗能——在8台NVIDIAL40GPU上连续训练了10天——但其推理效率展示了AI预报的绝对优势。在业务运行阶段,AI-GAMFS在单张显卡(如L40)上仅需39~60 s即可生成一套完整的全球5天预报产品。相比之下,传统的物理模式在同等分辨率下通常需要使用数百个计算节点的集群工作数小时。
    目前,AI—GAMFS已完成从科研攻关到业务落地的全链条闭环,在中央气象台及陕西、宁夏等10余个省(自治区)气象部门实现落地应用。面对未来气候变化背景下可能出现的新型极端事件,AI模型如何保持物理一致性、避免“统计上合理但物理上失真”的结果,仍是后续发展的重点。
    (综合:新华网、《Nature》、中国气象局、《科技日报》)

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    2种不同金属材料的力学参数

    Family
    属数
    Number of
    genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of
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    Genus
    种数
    Number of
    species
    占总种数比例
    Percentage of total
    species (%)
    鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
    小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
    多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
    红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
    小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
    光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
    红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
    栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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